MSU obviously stayed up WAY past their collective bedtimes last weekend, so you know what guys? Why don't y'all just take this weekend off, sleep in, and try to get healed up a bit. With a Hurricane Warning imminent on the Atlantic Coast and several Upset Watches brewing, perhaps it is a good weekend to stay inside anyway. While you are at it, please think about how to improve the pass rush, the o-line blocking and protection, and how to not commit stupid penalties on 3rd down in the Red Zone. K? K. See you in Bloomington.
National Overview
Per my usual process, the chart and table below summarize my spreadsheet's picks for Week 3. As the graph implies, over half of the games this week have a spread under 10 points, which suggests a potentially wild and entertaining weekend... and that was before the Huricane. If fact, my simulation suggests we should expect 12.6 ± 2.9 upsets this week, which is a pretty big number.
As for my highlighted teams to cover, my spreadsheet likes 9 total (Georgia, Mississippi State,
Penn State, Virginia Tech, Oregon, South Florida, New Mexico, Appalachian State, and South Alabama). But, the VA Tech game has been cancelled, so I guess I am down to 8. I have been hitting over 60% with these picks in the first two weeks, so we will see if I can maintain that pace. As for upsets, the math likes a total of 9, some of which are pretty bold. It likes North Texas to beat Arkansas (-9.5), Duke over Baylor (-6), Utah over Washington (-5.5), Boise State over Oklahoma State (-3.5), and San Diego State over Arizona State (-5) (but frankly that last one feels like my spreadsheet is just trolling me).
Let's now take our a quick spin around the country to check on the action of Week 3.
Big Ten
In the previous section, I mentioned how many games with close spreads there were this week. Well... very few of them happen to be in the Big Ten. The Midwest seems to be outside of the Watch and Warning Zones. In fact, only two team in the conference face an opponent ranked in the Top 60 of the preseason rankings. Those teams would be TCU who will travel to Columbus to face the Buckeyes (-10) and Missouri, who travel to West Lafayette to face the Boilers (+7.5). While it will certainly be interesting to see what OSU can do against a real team (no offense, Rutgers) the only other games that are predicted to be close are Troy State at Nebraska (-7.5), USF at Illinois (+7.5), and Rutgers (+4) at Kansas. In other words, it is a good weekend to clean out the garage. That said, I am a bit curious to see if Wisconsin (-22) really is 22 points better than BYU, and the Ball State at Indiana (-15) game is probably worth a watch both for scouting purposes and to get a better idea of how Ball State hung with the Irish last week.
For some reason, I was not very inspired at first by the OSU-TCU game, despite the fact that it is likely the "biggest" game of the weekend. The spread opened quite high and I just didn't think the result of the game was going to make a big impact. But, the more I think about it, this is a very big game for the B1G. If OSU wins, the eventual Big Ten Champ has a much better shot at the Playoffs than if OSU were to lose. Just look at what happened last year. Considering that the B1G is not exactly lighting it up in the non-conference, we need a marquee win. If OSU loses, what is the marquee non-conference win for the Big Ten? Maryland over Texas? The answer is "yes," unless Northwestern beats Notre Dame in a few weeks (which seems decreasingly likely) and that also assumes that Notre Dame is actually good. This game also has some interesting intrigue, considering that it is in Dallas and Urban Meyer is still suspended. Neither team has really played anyone, so we don't really know how good either team really is. Finally, I should note that my spreadsheet only favors OSU by about 4 points. Are the Buckeyes also on an Upset Watch?
SEC
On first glance, the SEC action doesn't look that compelling either, as half of the conference isn't playing a team in the Top 80 and the only SEC non-conference underdog is Vanderbilt (+15.5) at Notre Dame. That said, the Commodores have fared a bit better then expected already this year, and I have half a mind to put the Irish on an Upset Watch this weekend. Also, Colorado State was good enough to beat Arkansas last week. Can the Rams hang with Florida (-19) this week? Speaking of the Hogs, my algorithm actually picks North Texas (+9.5) to deal them their second upset loss in a row. Also, how about Marshall at South Carolina (-12)? Do Upsets taste like Chicken? Not this week, as this game just got cancelled due to Hurricane Florence.
The real action down South this week consists of the first two SEC West contests of the year. Alabama is not expected to be challenged at Ole Miss (+18), but it is the Tide's first true road game of the year, so you never know. The main event, however, is LSU at Auburn (-9.5). Both teams earned impressive non-conference victories in Week 1 (over Miami and Washington) and now they are both looking to stake their claim as a legit SEC West contender. Like Vegas, my spreadsheet still likes Auburn, but it expects LSU to cover (-4.5). But, it also feels like the biggest threat to Bama in the West is still Mississippi State and not the winner of Auburn-LSU.
ACC
So, where are all the close games that I was talking about? How about the ACC, which has a fun mix of intriguing conference and non-conference games on the schedule this weekend? Unfortunately, however, at least three of those non-conference games have already been cancelled or postponed due to Hurricane Florence bearing down on the Carolinas. While East Carolina at VA Tech (-29) was not expected to be competitive, I for one am waiting for a second look at the Hokies after Florida State's less than impressive outing last weekend. How about "defending champs" UCF at UNC (+11)? That would have been fun, and it hurts the Knights chances of racking up a P5 win. But, the real loss is West Virginia at NC State (+1) which had a real "Big 12-ACC Challenge" feel to it. It seems unlikely that any of these games will get made up later, but you never know.
Of the remaining 5 non-conference games, Georgia Southern at Clemson (-34) and Western Kentucky at Louisville (-20) are not expected to be interesting, but the other 3 I will be keeping an eye on. The most obviously interesting one is Duke (+6) at Baylor. When I saw this line, I was instantly confused. Baylor is favored? Either no one in Vegas saw Duke play last week or they think that this is still 2014. Either way, my math likes Duke by 2 touchdowns. Miami (-11) at Toledo is not supposed to be close, but I see this as a surprisingly important game. The Canes cannot afford a second loss this early, yet the Rockets are at home and could really elevate the MAC and their own stock with an upset. My gut (but not my spreadsheet, which agrees with Vegas) says to put the Canes on Upset Watch. For very similar reasons, I also like the Ohio at Virginia (-7) match-up.
Finally, in conference play this week there are three game on the schedule, all of which involve teams jockeying for early position. Neither Boston College nor Wake Forest has been tested this year, so when they face each other in Winston-Salem on Thursday night, the winner still has a chance to at least think about challenging Clemson for the Atlantic Division... or maybe just making a bowl game. Let's stick to just a bowl game for now, guys. Incidentally, Vegas favors BC (-4), while my math says Wake by 4. Two teams that have been tested (and who failed those tests) are Georgia Tech and their hosts this weekend, Pitt (+3.5). The loser here can likely start looking at non-football related plans for the months of December and January. Speaking of losers, who would have guessed 2 weeks ago that Florida State (-1.5) would be such a narrow favorite in Week 3 at Syracuse? Coach Barnett, there might still be time to come back to East Lansing (... do you happen to know anything about the O-line?)
Big 12
The Big 12 also looks to be a source for some entertaining games this weekend. Some of these have already been mentioned, such as Ohio State's trip to Dallas to face TCU (+10), Baylor's (-6) game with Duke, Kansas's (-4) quest for a winning streak against Rutgers, and West Virginia's (-1) now cancelled contest with NC State. In addition, Oklahoma State (-3.5) is hosting Boise, Texas Tech (-1.5) is hosting Houston, and Texas (-3) gets to host USC in a contest to decide which team is actually the most over-rated (tough call...). With the exception of the Ohio State - TCU game, the Big 12 is favored in all of these potentially tight games. That did not go well for the Big Ten last week and I suspect it is not going to go well for the Big 12 either. My spreadsheet predicts upsets in three of those games: (Baylor, OK State, and Texas Tech). If the Big 12 does have a strong weekend, they likely won't even get the credit that they deserve. The other two matches are predicted to be much less competitive. Kansas State (-21.5) is hosting UTSA in the only real cupcake match-up of the week, and the lone conference skirmish pairs up Oklahoma (-16.5) with Iowa State. While the Sooners shouldn't have to worry about a Hurricane this weekend, they will need to contend with the Cyclones. Remember that the Sooners were upset by Iowa State just last year. Can lightning strike twice? I would imagine that would happen all the time in a cyclone...
As for the TCU-OSU game, from the Frog's point of view I think that they are playing with house money. They are currently underdogs to both OSU and also to the Sooners in the Big 12. If the Buckeyes do prevail, it certainly hurts TCU's shot at the Playoffs, but it won't impact the entire conference like it would for OSU. The Sooners did not exactly ring up a real marquee win yet, but they did beat UCLA and will almost certainly go 3-0 in the non-conference. Considering they made the playoffs last year, they are going to get the benefit of the doubt as long as they win the Big 12 and don't lose more than 1 conference game. But, if TCU wins? They do draw Oklahoma at home this year and a win over the Buckeyes would mark them as a legit contender for the Big 12 and beyond.
Pac 12
I hate to say it, but the Pac 12's chances of staying relevant this year are a bit on the line this week. Almost half the conference (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Stanford, and Wazzou) are sampling from the FCS cupcake menu this week, and Oregon (-38) found an FBS-flavored cupcake named San Jose State. But other than that the remaining five games are expected to be competitive, and I have to warn you, many of them could go south for the boys out west. USC's (+3) trip to Texas was mentioned above and one thing is for sure: one of those teams will exit the weekend with two losses. Three of these five contests involve a Pac 12 teams matched up with a Mountain West opponent, and all three games look a bit scary if you are a Pac 12 fan. First, Arizona State (-5) will make the trip to San Diego to play the Aztecs, and my spreadsheet likes the upset here. Second, UCLA is hosting Fresno State and Vegas thinks the game is a toss up (my math likes the Bruins by a TD). Third, Oregon State (+5.5) is on the road at Nevada. Even though my spreadsheet likes the Beavers by 10, the fact the OSU West is playing a game of football against a group of 11 humans with a pulse suggests that an "L" is highly likely. Let's just hope no one has to call Reno 911!
The final match of the weekend is the sneaky important conference clash of Washington at Utah (+5.5). The Huskies' Playoff chances are already on life support after their Week 1 loss to Auburn, and an upset loss in Salt Lake City would pretty much seal the deal. As for the Utes, in my preseason analysis, I picked them as the surprise team to claim the Pac 12 South Title, partially because I projected that they could steal a couple of games like this one. My spreadsheet still likes the Utes this week.
Independents / Group of Five
After Notre Dame's inspired Week 1 won over the Wolverines, the Irish seem to have faltered a bit in Week 2 against Ball State. In Week 3, the Irish are 15.5-point favorites as hosts to Vandy, but as stated above, both my gut and my spreadsheet say that this game will be a bit closer than that. Upset Watch issued.
But make no mistake, the game with perhaps the biggest overall impact on the national scene this week falls into the Group of Five category and that is Boise State's road trip to Stillwater to face the Cowboys of Oklahoma State (-3.5). On paper, this is Boise's toughest game of the year, and if they can leave town with a "W," a 13-0 season is a very real possibility. My math likes Boise to win this game. With a win over a solid Big 12 team, on road, on their resume this could make the discussions in the Selection Committee room very, very interesting in the coming months. Even if the Bronco's lose, they are likely still the favorite for the NY6 bid, but if they win? Watch out. I have already highlighted above some of the other key games involving MWest teams, and I think that there is a very solid chance that it will be a very good week for the conference.
The action in the AAC is not quite as compelling as the Mountain West, and as stated above, it would have been more interesting had the UCF-UNC game not been cancelled. Still, Houston (at Texas Tech (+3)) and South Florida (at Illinois (+7.5)) both have a shot to show some AAC pride this week. In MACtion this week, as stated above, Ohio (at UVA (-7)) and Toledo (vs Miami (-11)) have pretty much the best remaining chance of putting the MAC on the map for the NY6 bid, even if that is more of a long shot. Otherwise, I am just going to keep my eye on Ball State (at Indiana (-15)) and Akron (at Northwestern (-21.5)) just in case.
That is all for this week. If it winds up being pretty crazy on the gridiron, don't say that I didn't warn you. Enjoy the bye week!
National Overview
Per my usual process, the chart and table below summarize my spreadsheet's picks for Week 3. As the graph implies, over half of the games this week have a spread under 10 points, which suggests a potentially wild and entertaining weekend... and that was before the Huricane. If fact, my simulation suggests we should expect 12.6 ± 2.9 upsets this week, which is a pretty big number.
As for my highlighted teams to cover, my spreadsheet likes 9 total (Georgia, Mississippi State,
Penn State, Virginia Tech, Oregon, South Florida, New Mexico, Appalachian State, and South Alabama). But, the VA Tech game has been cancelled, so I guess I am down to 8. I have been hitting over 60% with these picks in the first two weeks, so we will see if I can maintain that pace. As for upsets, the math likes a total of 9, some of which are pretty bold. It likes North Texas to beat Arkansas (-9.5), Duke over Baylor (-6), Utah over Washington (-5.5), Boise State over Oklahoma State (-3.5), and San Diego State over Arizona State (-5) (but frankly that last one feels like my spreadsheet is just trolling me).
Let's now take our a quick spin around the country to check on the action of Week 3.
Big Ten
In the previous section, I mentioned how many games with close spreads there were this week. Well... very few of them happen to be in the Big Ten. The Midwest seems to be outside of the Watch and Warning Zones. In fact, only two team in the conference face an opponent ranked in the Top 60 of the preseason rankings. Those teams would be TCU who will travel to Columbus to face the Buckeyes (-10) and Missouri, who travel to West Lafayette to face the Boilers (+7.5). While it will certainly be interesting to see what OSU can do against a real team (no offense, Rutgers) the only other games that are predicted to be close are Troy State at Nebraska (-7.5), USF at Illinois (+7.5), and Rutgers (+4) at Kansas. In other words, it is a good weekend to clean out the garage. That said, I am a bit curious to see if Wisconsin (-22) really is 22 points better than BYU, and the Ball State at Indiana (-15) game is probably worth a watch both for scouting purposes and to get a better idea of how Ball State hung with the Irish last week.
For some reason, I was not very inspired at first by the OSU-TCU game, despite the fact that it is likely the "biggest" game of the weekend. The spread opened quite high and I just didn't think the result of the game was going to make a big impact. But, the more I think about it, this is a very big game for the B1G. If OSU wins, the eventual Big Ten Champ has a much better shot at the Playoffs than if OSU were to lose. Just look at what happened last year. Considering that the B1G is not exactly lighting it up in the non-conference, we need a marquee win. If OSU loses, what is the marquee non-conference win for the Big Ten? Maryland over Texas? The answer is "yes," unless Northwestern beats Notre Dame in a few weeks (which seems decreasingly likely) and that also assumes that Notre Dame is actually good. This game also has some interesting intrigue, considering that it is in Dallas and Urban Meyer is still suspended. Neither team has really played anyone, so we don't really know how good either team really is. Finally, I should note that my spreadsheet only favors OSU by about 4 points. Are the Buckeyes also on an Upset Watch?
SEC
On first glance, the SEC action doesn't look that compelling either, as half of the conference isn't playing a team in the Top 80 and the only SEC non-conference underdog is Vanderbilt (+15.5) at Notre Dame. That said, the Commodores have fared a bit better then expected already this year, and I have half a mind to put the Irish on an Upset Watch this weekend. Also, Colorado State was good enough to beat Arkansas last week. Can the Rams hang with Florida (-19) this week? Speaking of the Hogs, my algorithm actually picks North Texas (+9.5) to deal them their second upset loss in a row. Also, how about Marshall at South Carolina (-12)? Do Upsets taste like Chicken? Not this week, as this game just got cancelled due to Hurricane Florence.
The real action down South this week consists of the first two SEC West contests of the year. Alabama is not expected to be challenged at Ole Miss (+18), but it is the Tide's first true road game of the year, so you never know. The main event, however, is LSU at Auburn (-9.5). Both teams earned impressive non-conference victories in Week 1 (over Miami and Washington) and now they are both looking to stake their claim as a legit SEC West contender. Like Vegas, my spreadsheet still likes Auburn, but it expects LSU to cover (-4.5). But, it also feels like the biggest threat to Bama in the West is still Mississippi State and not the winner of Auburn-LSU.
ACC
So, where are all the close games that I was talking about? How about the ACC, which has a fun mix of intriguing conference and non-conference games on the schedule this weekend? Unfortunately, however, at least three of those non-conference games have already been cancelled or postponed due to Hurricane Florence bearing down on the Carolinas. While East Carolina at VA Tech (-29) was not expected to be competitive, I for one am waiting for a second look at the Hokies after Florida State's less than impressive outing last weekend. How about "defending champs" UCF at UNC (+11)? That would have been fun, and it hurts the Knights chances of racking up a P5 win. But, the real loss is West Virginia at NC State (+1) which had a real "Big 12-ACC Challenge" feel to it. It seems unlikely that any of these games will get made up later, but you never know.
Of the remaining 5 non-conference games, Georgia Southern at Clemson (-34) and Western Kentucky at Louisville (-20) are not expected to be interesting, but the other 3 I will be keeping an eye on. The most obviously interesting one is Duke (+6) at Baylor. When I saw this line, I was instantly confused. Baylor is favored? Either no one in Vegas saw Duke play last week or they think that this is still 2014. Either way, my math likes Duke by 2 touchdowns. Miami (-11) at Toledo is not supposed to be close, but I see this as a surprisingly important game. The Canes cannot afford a second loss this early, yet the Rockets are at home and could really elevate the MAC and their own stock with an upset. My gut (but not my spreadsheet, which agrees with Vegas) says to put the Canes on Upset Watch. For very similar reasons, I also like the Ohio at Virginia (-7) match-up.
Finally, in conference play this week there are three game on the schedule, all of which involve teams jockeying for early position. Neither Boston College nor Wake Forest has been tested this year, so when they face each other in Winston-Salem on Thursday night, the winner still has a chance to at least think about challenging Clemson for the Atlantic Division... or maybe just making a bowl game. Let's stick to just a bowl game for now, guys. Incidentally, Vegas favors BC (-4), while my math says Wake by 4. Two teams that have been tested (and who failed those tests) are Georgia Tech and their hosts this weekend, Pitt (+3.5). The loser here can likely start looking at non-football related plans for the months of December and January. Speaking of losers, who would have guessed 2 weeks ago that Florida State (-1.5) would be such a narrow favorite in Week 3 at Syracuse? Coach Barnett, there might still be time to come back to East Lansing (... do you happen to know anything about the O-line?)
Big 12
The Big 12 also looks to be a source for some entertaining games this weekend. Some of these have already been mentioned, such as Ohio State's trip to Dallas to face TCU (+10), Baylor's (-6) game with Duke, Kansas's (-4) quest for a winning streak against Rutgers, and West Virginia's (-1) now cancelled contest with NC State. In addition, Oklahoma State (-3.5) is hosting Boise, Texas Tech (-1.5) is hosting Houston, and Texas (-3) gets to host USC in a contest to decide which team is actually the most over-rated (tough call...). With the exception of the Ohio State - TCU game, the Big 12 is favored in all of these potentially tight games. That did not go well for the Big Ten last week and I suspect it is not going to go well for the Big 12 either. My spreadsheet predicts upsets in three of those games: (Baylor, OK State, and Texas Tech). If the Big 12 does have a strong weekend, they likely won't even get the credit that they deserve. The other two matches are predicted to be much less competitive. Kansas State (-21.5) is hosting UTSA in the only real cupcake match-up of the week, and the lone conference skirmish pairs up Oklahoma (-16.5) with Iowa State. While the Sooners shouldn't have to worry about a Hurricane this weekend, they will need to contend with the Cyclones. Remember that the Sooners were upset by Iowa State just last year. Can lightning strike twice? I would imagine that would happen all the time in a cyclone...
As for the TCU-OSU game, from the Frog's point of view I think that they are playing with house money. They are currently underdogs to both OSU and also to the Sooners in the Big 12. If the Buckeyes do prevail, it certainly hurts TCU's shot at the Playoffs, but it won't impact the entire conference like it would for OSU. The Sooners did not exactly ring up a real marquee win yet, but they did beat UCLA and will almost certainly go 3-0 in the non-conference. Considering they made the playoffs last year, they are going to get the benefit of the doubt as long as they win the Big 12 and don't lose more than 1 conference game. But, if TCU wins? They do draw Oklahoma at home this year and a win over the Buckeyes would mark them as a legit contender for the Big 12 and beyond.
Pac 12
I hate to say it, but the Pac 12's chances of staying relevant this year are a bit on the line this week. Almost half the conference (Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Stanford, and Wazzou) are sampling from the FCS cupcake menu this week, and Oregon (-38) found an FBS-flavored cupcake named San Jose State. But other than that the remaining five games are expected to be competitive, and I have to warn you, many of them could go south for the boys out west. USC's (+3) trip to Texas was mentioned above and one thing is for sure: one of those teams will exit the weekend with two losses. Three of these five contests involve a Pac 12 teams matched up with a Mountain West opponent, and all three games look a bit scary if you are a Pac 12 fan. First, Arizona State (-5) will make the trip to San Diego to play the Aztecs, and my spreadsheet likes the upset here. Second, UCLA is hosting Fresno State and Vegas thinks the game is a toss up (my math likes the Bruins by a TD). Third, Oregon State (+5.5) is on the road at Nevada. Even though my spreadsheet likes the Beavers by 10, the fact the OSU West is playing a game of football against a group of 11 humans with a pulse suggests that an "L" is highly likely. Let's just hope no one has to call Reno 911!
The final match of the weekend is the sneaky important conference clash of Washington at Utah (+5.5). The Huskies' Playoff chances are already on life support after their Week 1 loss to Auburn, and an upset loss in Salt Lake City would pretty much seal the deal. As for the Utes, in my preseason analysis, I picked them as the surprise team to claim the Pac 12 South Title, partially because I projected that they could steal a couple of games like this one. My spreadsheet still likes the Utes this week.
Independents / Group of Five
After Notre Dame's inspired Week 1 won over the Wolverines, the Irish seem to have faltered a bit in Week 2 against Ball State. In Week 3, the Irish are 15.5-point favorites as hosts to Vandy, but as stated above, both my gut and my spreadsheet say that this game will be a bit closer than that. Upset Watch issued.
But make no mistake, the game with perhaps the biggest overall impact on the national scene this week falls into the Group of Five category and that is Boise State's road trip to Stillwater to face the Cowboys of Oklahoma State (-3.5). On paper, this is Boise's toughest game of the year, and if they can leave town with a "W," a 13-0 season is a very real possibility. My math likes Boise to win this game. With a win over a solid Big 12 team, on road, on their resume this could make the discussions in the Selection Committee room very, very interesting in the coming months. Even if the Bronco's lose, they are likely still the favorite for the NY6 bid, but if they win? Watch out. I have already highlighted above some of the other key games involving MWest teams, and I think that there is a very solid chance that it will be a very good week for the conference.
The action in the AAC is not quite as compelling as the Mountain West, and as stated above, it would have been more interesting had the UCF-UNC game not been cancelled. Still, Houston (at Texas Tech (+3)) and South Florida (at Illinois (+7.5)) both have a shot to show some AAC pride this week. In MACtion this week, as stated above, Ohio (at UVA (-7)) and Toledo (vs Miami (-11)) have pretty much the best remaining chance of putting the MAC on the map for the NY6 bid, even if that is more of a long shot. Otherwise, I am just going to keep my eye on Ball State (at Indiana (-15)) and Akron (at Northwestern (-21.5)) just in case.
That is all for this week. If it winds up being pretty crazy on the gridiron, don't say that I didn't warn you. Enjoy the bye week!
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