Dear Florence,
I hate to be the one to break this to you but, know this: no one likes you. Not only did you cause the cancellation of six college football games this weekend (which I hate, because it messes with my statistics. NOT COOL.), but you just slammed into the Atlantic Coast and wrecked havoc on the lives of millions of people. YOU JERK. Seriously. Also, by the way, other Hurricanes talk about you behind your back. They say that you are big and slow and you can't hold you rain. Also, you smell bad. Yeah, that's right. YOU SUCK. They sometimes say that you are just a Tropical Depression anyway. BURN. So, you just go away. GO. No one wants you here anymore. I hope you trip and fall on the Appalachian Mountains and poke your eye out. IT WOULD SERVE YOU RIGHT. You are the lowest of the low. You are the Wolverines of natural disasters. Now, GET!
Now that that is off my chest, enough about the weather, I am here to talk college football. MSU was off this week, and as it turns out, that was probably a great idea. It was generally much safer indoors this weekend. But, there certainly was a lot of interesting action this week, so let's kick it off with a look at the National picture.
National Overview
As is my normal process, below I show the results chart for Week 3. My algorithm went 25-24 ATS (51%), a skosh better than the FPI (24-25, 49%). My highlight covers were 4-3 ATS (57%). Overall, I am 73-70 (51%) ATS and 21-13 (62%) for highlight covers through 3 weeks. One thing that is also always interesting to me in this chart are the teams that really over-achieved vs. the spread (like Bama and oddly... Kansas) and the teams that failed to cover badly, yet still won (Oregon, Notre Dame, and Louisville, who just barely averted disaster)
In my Week 3 preview, I commented about how the Big 12 had a lot of games with tight spreads and if they did well, they probably wouldn't get the credit they deserved. Well, now that the dust has settled, the Big 12 had a pretty good week, and I don't think anyone is talking about it. Sure, TCU lost to Ohio State and Baylor lost to Duke. But, (despite the Vegas line in the Baylor game) neither of those outcomes was at all a surprise. What was a surprise was the fact that Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech all got wins AND all five teams covered. It is not like they just beat a bunch of chumps either (except you, Rutgers). Those wins include conquests over USC, Boise State, and Houston. Tip of the hat, Big 12. In the only other game on the calendar, conference favorite Oklahoma had a tighter-than-expected win over Iowa State (likely due the Cyclones taking inspiration from their tropical storm brethren). Perhaps the Big 12 is going to be better and more competitive than we originally thought.
Pac 12
Out west this week, the story was pretty simple: It was a good week for the North and a bad day for the South. Somehow, I don't think that this will be the only time I type those words this year. Of the six Pac 12 South teams, the only two that won this weekend were Colorado and Arizona. The bad news is that they both faced FCS teams. Granted, the other four all lost to decent competition (recall that both Fresno State and San Diego State were ranked in the Top 50 in the preseason), but the Pac 12 South looks to be the weakest of all Power 5 divisions, and I don't think that there is a close second. Interestingly, my math suggests that Arizona State is the new favorite to win the South, despite their Pac 12-after-dark loss to the Aztecs.
Up North, things were a bit brighter. Oregon State did wind up losing to Nevada (but they did cover), and the other five teams won. Then again, the only team to play against real competition was Washington, who scored a potentially under-rated road win at Utah. As a final note, I have seen a few references to Oregon being a dark-horse to win the North, and that was my pick also in the preseason. However, despite their 3-0 record, my algorithm has not looked kindly on their performances so far. The Ducks are given up an average of 20 points a game on defense, which would be fine... if ANY of their opponents so far were ranked even in the Top 110 of FBS.
Independent and the Group of Five
Notre Dame seemed to continue their now weekly tradition of underwhelming performances by just scrapping by Vanderbilt by a total of 5 points. While Vandy is quite likely better than their preseason ranking of 81, this is now at least 2 poor showings in a row. But, the Irish are still undefeated and therefore still in the conversation. But, with Stanford and Virginia Tech on the horizon, we likely won't have to wait long until the Irish of out of any meaningful hunt this year.
In the Group of Five, this week was Boise State's big chance to make a statement against Oklahoma State... and fail. So, I think it is safe to say that there will be no surprise G5 team in the playoffs. But, the rest of the Mountain West represented this week, with Nevada, Frenso, and San Diego State all taking out Pac 12 South opponents. Relegation, anyone? In the AAC, South Florida got their expected win over Illinois to go with last week's win over Georgia Tech. If the Bulls can edge out UCF for the AAC East title, they could make a strong case to finish ahead of Boise at year's end. I would cation both, however: beware of 3-0 Cincinnati.
As for the rest of the Group of Five, a few teams certainly scored some impressive upsets. North Texas slaughtered Arkansas and is currently sitting at 3-0. My math now projects the Mean Green to finish the regular season at 12-0. If the Mountain West and AAC races start to get weird, could a 13-0 C-USA champ take a NY6 Bowl slot? Akron get to steal the spotlight in MACtion this weekend with an upset win over Northwestern, but Buffalo also ran their record to 3-0 with a win over Eastern. The Bulls are likely the MACs last long-shot at the NY6. Finally, even the Funbelt has their moment this week as Troy State once against took down a traditional power, or at least another team that really wants to think they have both tradition and power. I won't mention any names, but the losing team hails from a state west of Iowa where they really like Husking Corn.
Finally, I will leave you with two burning questions:
First, how bad is... Florida State?
For the second year in a row the Seminoles have started the season with high expectations but when the season actually started, there were problems. Last year, they had a rash of injuries, and so limping to a 6-6 record was somewhat understandable. However, Year 1 of the Willie Taggart era has gotten off to a disastrous start, and I don't see the same mitigating factors that may have been present last year. Getting blown out by Virginia Tech is understandable. Struggling to beat Samford and then getting blown out by a Syracuse team not coach by Jim Boeheim is not. Of course it is still early, but my spreadsheet currently pegs FSU's power ranking at #90, and that is with the benefit of the math being partially still anchored to the preseason rankings. As I look at the Nole's upcoming schedule, I don't see 6 wins. In fact, I am not sure I see more than 3. My spreadsheet says 2.9. One year is a blip. Two years is a trend. At this point, if I were an FSU fan, I would be very, very concerned for the future.
How good is... Cincinnati?
The Bearcats were not supposed to have a good season. They were a borderline Top 100 team in the preseason rankings, picked to finish 4th in the AAC East (ahead of the objectively terrible UCONN and East Carolina squads). In Week 1, they upset UCLA in the Rose Bowl and went on to shut out a decent MAC team (Miami) in Week 2. In Week 3, they played Alabama A&M (an FBS) team, but they beat them 63-7. Raise your hand if you think MSU would have beaten than team by that score... My current power rankings have them at 34 and rising. While UCF still appears to be the team to beat in the AAC East, my spreadsheet now predicts Cinci to finish with double digit wins. If they can upset UCF in mid November, a NY6 bid would be a serious possibility.
OK, that is all for now. Stay tuned for my Week 4 preview in a couple of days. Until then and as always, Go State, beat the Hoosiers!
I hate to be the one to break this to you but, know this: no one likes you. Not only did you cause the cancellation of six college football games this weekend (which I hate, because it messes with my statistics. NOT COOL.), but you just slammed into the Atlantic Coast and wrecked havoc on the lives of millions of people. YOU JERK. Seriously. Also, by the way, other Hurricanes talk about you behind your back. They say that you are big and slow and you can't hold you rain. Also, you smell bad. Yeah, that's right. YOU SUCK. They sometimes say that you are just a Tropical Depression anyway. BURN. So, you just go away. GO. No one wants you here anymore. I hope you trip and fall on the Appalachian Mountains and poke your eye out. IT WOULD SERVE YOU RIGHT. You are the lowest of the low. You are the Wolverines of natural disasters. Now, GET!
Now that that is off my chest, enough about the weather, I am here to talk college football. MSU was off this week, and as it turns out, that was probably a great idea. It was generally much safer indoors this weekend. But, there certainly was a lot of interesting action this week, so let's kick it off with a look at the National picture.
National Overview
As is my normal process, below I show the results chart for Week 3. My algorithm went 25-24 ATS (51%), a skosh better than the FPI (24-25, 49%). My highlight covers were 4-3 ATS (57%). Overall, I am 73-70 (51%) ATS and 21-13 (62%) for highlight covers through 3 weeks. One thing that is also always interesting to me in this chart are the teams that really over-achieved vs. the spread (like Bama and oddly... Kansas) and the teams that failed to cover badly, yet still won (Oregon, Notre Dame, and Louisville, who just barely averted disaster)
As for upsets, the table below shows the result from Week 3. I counted a total of 12 upsets, consistent with my prediction of 12.6. My algorithm went 4-5 (44%) for upset and is 10-9 (53%) for the year, well above my target of 40%. The FPI hit 3-1 (75%), including its first correct pick of the year that I didn't also make (Cuse>FSU). But, in fairness, my algorithm does not consider games against FCS opponents, so if it would have known about FSU's struggles in Week 2, I suspect that it would have come to the same conclusion.
Another point about the upsets this week is that we saw two of them in games with a point spread of greater than 20. In the preseason, performed an analysis that showed that a 20+-point upset should only happen about 2-3 times per year. As I look back over the data from last year, that jives, as I count exactly 3 all year (although there was one upset with an opening spread of 19.5) In any event, seeing two upsets in games where the spread opened at over 20 point in the same week, to teams in the same conference, is extremely rare. I have no data to prove this (yet) but I suspect that this has never happened before, probably ever. So, for those that have proposed that this was historically bad week for the Big Ten, well, I think you may be on to something.
Let's take a quick spin around the country to catch up on the week's action.
Big Ten
There is really only one word to describe the weekend that the Big Ten had. It was a disaster. Now, I would not classify it as a complete, unmitigated disaster. I mean, it's not like every Big Ten team except Michigan lost. But, the weekend went about as bad as it could have without drawing suspicious that some SEC fan with a voodoo doll went rogue. A quick look at the upset table above tells the story. Not only is the Wisconsin and Northwestern upset combo likely historically unprecedented, but if you also add the Maryland and Nebraska upsets to the tally, that accounts for 4 of the biggest 6 upsets of the week. AND, that doesn't even account the fact that Rutgers got pummeled by Kansas, a team so bad that they haven't had a 2-game winning streak since 2011. Oh, and then there is Purdue's loss to Missouri and Illinois' loss to South Florida. All three of those teams were underdogs, so maybe we can take comfort in the idea that at least Purdue and Illinois covered? (Sigh...) Even Michigan, who eventually took SMU to the glue factory, failed to cover by almost 10 points and wound up beating the Mustangs by roughly the same score as Texas... (stops to clean glasses...) wait, make that NORTH Texas. My mistake.
So, what actually went right for the Big Ten this week? Well, despite a bit of a slow start, the Buckeyes eventually hit TCU with a 20-point burst in 4 minutes and wound up winning by 12. This is, by far, the biggest non-conference win for the Big Ten all year, but I would argue that we still don't really have a good feel for good the Horned Frogs are. But, both those teams passed the eye test for me, so the Buckeyes still look essentially like a juggernaut. Penn State also did their best to beat up on a really bad MAC team, winning by 53. I am sure that was a great boost to their self-esteem and will go a long way towards trying to convince everyone that Week 1 never happened. Even though the rest of the conference contenders seems to have struggled, if either Penn State or Ohio State wins the conference, a playoff berth still seems quite likely for the conference
With all the chaos that took place, it is easy to forgot what happened to the three remaining teams. Iowa managed to easily neuter the Northern Iowa Panthers (which is something they don't always do), while Minnesota put a hole in Miami of Ohio. Both teams teams just ran their record to 3-0, and both teams have decent wins over Iowa State (who game Oklahoma a good fight this weekend) and Fresno State (who TKO'ed UCLA this weekend). With Wisconsin all of a sudden looking vulnerable, Iowa's odds of winning the West look suddenly pretty good, and Minnesota looks to be a solid #3 team in the West, at worst. Over in the East, Indiana also ran their record to 3-0 by beating a Ball State team a lot more convincingly than Notre Dame did. Man, I don't think that I would want to have to be the Big Ten team that was the first to visit Bloomington this year... (stops to check the schedule...) OH COME ON!
SEC
If it weren't for the mass display of incompetence that was Big Ten football this week, I would probably spend a full paragraph talking about the disaster that is Arkansas football and how they just lost to a C-USA team by almost 4 TDs. But, Brett Beilema isn't even there anymore and my heart just isn't in it. You suck, Arkansas. (Sigh...) Other than the Hogs being led to slaughter, the only other game of note, really, was LSU's thrilling upset of Auburn. Don't look now, but all of a sudden, LSU looks like a possible SEC West contender. They already own wins over Top 10ish Miami and Auburn, and they draw Mississippi State, Georgia, and Bama all in Baton Rouge. If the Tigers can somehow knock-off Bama and then just win one of the other two contests, they could easily find themselves in the SEC Title Game (and then they would either get trucked by Georgia in the Title Game or by Bama in the Playoffs).
Other than that, everything pretty much went to script down South this week. Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and even Tennessee beat FCS or bad FBS opponents by a lot of points. Also, as mentioned above, Missouri went to West Lafayette and got the "W," even if they didn't cover (small victories!). Finally, somehow Ole Miss managed to score a TD on their first play from scrimmage, but that only seemed to make Bama angry, as they then went on to score 62 unanswered points. All I could think was "Stop! Stop! He's Already Dead!"
ACC
For the teams at the top of the ACC, everything basically went according to plan. Clemson beat a bad team by a lot, VA Tech got surprise day off, and Miami was able to fend off Toledo, showing once again that it was a good day for all non-Golden Hurricanes (sorry, Tulsa). But, the biggest story on the coast was the result of the second tier games, as some teams made a move to contend, and other faltered. In non-conference play, Duke scored an "upset" at Baylor in perhaps the easiest upset to call in several years. The Blue Devils now are sitting at 3-0 and may be a dark-horse for the Coastal Division. Also in the Coastal Division, Pitt made a rambling wreck out of Georgia Tech to stay above 500. Time will tell if either team is above that mark at season's end (I wouldn't bet on it).
Up in the Atlantic Division, Boston College scored a road win at Wake Forest to run their record to 3-0. At the same time, Louisville struggled to beat Western Kentucky. This combination lead some people to speculate that BC might be a possible challenger to Clemson. Although Clemson does have to travel to Boston this year... in November (mental note made), my math is not at all convinced they are a threat. Actually, my calculations suggest NC State is now the #2 team in the Division, while the #3 team might just be Syracuse, especially after their big upset win over the suddenly hapless Seminoles. More on them later.
Big 12
Pac 12
Out west this week, the story was pretty simple: It was a good week for the North and a bad day for the South. Somehow, I don't think that this will be the only time I type those words this year. Of the six Pac 12 South teams, the only two that won this weekend were Colorado and Arizona. The bad news is that they both faced FCS teams. Granted, the other four all lost to decent competition (recall that both Fresno State and San Diego State were ranked in the Top 50 in the preseason), but the Pac 12 South looks to be the weakest of all Power 5 divisions, and I don't think that there is a close second. Interestingly, my math suggests that Arizona State is the new favorite to win the South, despite their Pac 12-after-dark loss to the Aztecs.
Up North, things were a bit brighter. Oregon State did wind up losing to Nevada (but they did cover), and the other five teams won. Then again, the only team to play against real competition was Washington, who scored a potentially under-rated road win at Utah. As a final note, I have seen a few references to Oregon being a dark-horse to win the North, and that was my pick also in the preseason. However, despite their 3-0 record, my algorithm has not looked kindly on their performances so far. The Ducks are given up an average of 20 points a game on defense, which would be fine... if ANY of their opponents so far were ranked even in the Top 110 of FBS.
Independent and the Group of Five
Notre Dame seemed to continue their now weekly tradition of underwhelming performances by just scrapping by Vanderbilt by a total of 5 points. While Vandy is quite likely better than their preseason ranking of 81, this is now at least 2 poor showings in a row. But, the Irish are still undefeated and therefore still in the conversation. But, with Stanford and Virginia Tech on the horizon, we likely won't have to wait long until the Irish of out of any meaningful hunt this year.
In the Group of Five, this week was Boise State's big chance to make a statement against Oklahoma State... and fail. So, I think it is safe to say that there will be no surprise G5 team in the playoffs. But, the rest of the Mountain West represented this week, with Nevada, Frenso, and San Diego State all taking out Pac 12 South opponents. Relegation, anyone? In the AAC, South Florida got their expected win over Illinois to go with last week's win over Georgia Tech. If the Bulls can edge out UCF for the AAC East title, they could make a strong case to finish ahead of Boise at year's end. I would cation both, however: beware of 3-0 Cincinnati.
As for the rest of the Group of Five, a few teams certainly scored some impressive upsets. North Texas slaughtered Arkansas and is currently sitting at 3-0. My math now projects the Mean Green to finish the regular season at 12-0. If the Mountain West and AAC races start to get weird, could a 13-0 C-USA champ take a NY6 Bowl slot? Akron get to steal the spotlight in MACtion this weekend with an upset win over Northwestern, but Buffalo also ran their record to 3-0 with a win over Eastern. The Bulls are likely the MACs last long-shot at the NY6. Finally, even the Funbelt has their moment this week as Troy State once against took down a traditional power, or at least another team that really wants to think they have both tradition and power. I won't mention any names, but the losing team hails from a state west of Iowa where they really like Husking Corn.
Finally, I will leave you with two burning questions:
First, how bad is... Florida State?
For the second year in a row the Seminoles have started the season with high expectations but when the season actually started, there were problems. Last year, they had a rash of injuries, and so limping to a 6-6 record was somewhat understandable. However, Year 1 of the Willie Taggart era has gotten off to a disastrous start, and I don't see the same mitigating factors that may have been present last year. Getting blown out by Virginia Tech is understandable. Struggling to beat Samford and then getting blown out by a Syracuse team not coach by Jim Boeheim is not. Of course it is still early, but my spreadsheet currently pegs FSU's power ranking at #90, and that is with the benefit of the math being partially still anchored to the preseason rankings. As I look at the Nole's upcoming schedule, I don't see 6 wins. In fact, I am not sure I see more than 3. My spreadsheet says 2.9. One year is a blip. Two years is a trend. At this point, if I were an FSU fan, I would be very, very concerned for the future.
How good is... Cincinnati?
The Bearcats were not supposed to have a good season. They were a borderline Top 100 team in the preseason rankings, picked to finish 4th in the AAC East (ahead of the objectively terrible UCONN and East Carolina squads). In Week 1, they upset UCLA in the Rose Bowl and went on to shut out a decent MAC team (Miami) in Week 2. In Week 3, they played Alabama A&M (an FBS) team, but they beat them 63-7. Raise your hand if you think MSU would have beaten than team by that score... My current power rankings have them at 34 and rising. While UCF still appears to be the team to beat in the AAC East, my spreadsheet now predicts Cinci to finish with double digit wins. If they can upset UCF in mid November, a NY6 bid would be a serious possibility.
OK, that is all for now. Stay tuned for my Week 4 preview in a couple of days. Until then and as always, Go State, beat the Hoosiers!
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