The critics can say what they want about MSU's somewhat lackluster 2-1 start, but the fact of the matter is that MSU has played a relatively tough schedule so far. While the quantification of schedule strength is a bit dubious (in my opinon), the method I use says MSU has played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation so far, including only teams that were ranked in the Top 80 in the preseason. Only Alabama in the Power 5 can also make that claim. I project that all three of MSU's previous opponents will be playing in a Bowl game. That said, it is not like MSU has faced a gauntlet of Top 15 teams so far, but the distinct lack of any cupcakes on the schedule has, perhaps, cost MSU a little bit of development time, even with the bye week. It is sort of like going to your favorite TexMex place and having them hand you a burrito with a side of fajitas right as you arrive. You might be wondering where the Chips and Salsa are and you might end the night with a bit of indigestion.
Well, Spartan fans, this week it's time for the Chips and Salsa course, and hopefully, the salsa will be mild.
Now, for those historians out there, facing the Chippawas of Central Michigan may bring back some bad memories. There has been a bit of spice to this intrastate clash. MSU lost to CMU 3 times in history, twice in the 90s and once in 2009. But, this is not your uncle's or big brother's version of the Chips, nor is it that version of MSU. For a lot of reasons, an earth shattering upset is very unlikely. Most basically, the spread opened at -28 for MSU, and that translates to a 2.4% chance that an upset would occur. Just to put this in context, an upset on this scale is only projected to happen about once every 2 years or so and one actually happened last week (Old Dominion over VA Tech). History bears this out as well, as I count only 8 upsets total with spreads at or above 28 points since 2001.
In addition, it helps a bit that this game is in Week 5 and not Week 1 or 2. We know more about both teams, and that means the odds that CMU is actually a lot better than we think it not that high. They have already played 4 games and the only one that they won was last week against traditional hockey powerhouse Maine. Unfortunately for the Black Bears, they were playing football. While CMU did give Kentucky some trouble for a while, and while Kentucky appears to be better than we thought, the Chips still lost that game by 14. Other than that, CMU got hammered by Kansas (yes, Kansas!) and then lost to Northern Illinois. While NIU is usually a solid MAC program, they have struggled so far this year and right now I have both CMU and NIU both ranked well outside of the Top 100.
So, is it possible that MSU blows this game? Sure. Of course it's possible, but it isn't very likely. What is more likely is that it is a nice little scrimmage where MSU can work on some things, get a look at some players that are a bit farther down the depth chart, and win by a comfortable margin. If those things do not happen, I am sure that MSU fans, players, and coaches will all be feeling a little heart-burn come Saturday night.
National Overview
Below I show my weekly chart of predictions relative to the Vegas spread. My algorithm likes 11 teams to cover this week: Ohio, Texas A&M, Alabama, Appalachian State, Fresno State, Eastern Michigan, Cincinnati, Duke, Arizona State, Air Force, and North Texas. Hopefully, I will do a little better with this week's picks compared to last week.
As for upsets, as the table below shows, my algorithm likes a total of 8 upsets, while the FPI is feeling bolder than usual by picking 7. Based on my simulation of the week, I would expect to see 12.5 ± 3.0 upsets. There are two notable upsets that both my math and the FPI agree upon and that is Cal beating Oregon (-3.5) and Penn State upsetting Ohio State (-4). More on that match-up later. As for the other notable upsets, I like Temple over BC, Louisville over Florida State, Stanford over Notre Dame, Arizona over USC, and Kentucky over the other USC. The FPI also likes Texas Tech to upset West Virginia.
Big Ten. Spice Level: Hot
The base recipe in the Big Ten this week is actually pretty mild. Five of the fourteen teams are on a bye week, and three of the five games have double digit spreads, including MSU's game, Indiana at Rutgers (+15), and Michigan at Northwestern (+11). None of those games should get spicy, but considering both home teams are underdogs in the conference games, I suppose you never know. It is certainly possible that Northwestern used last week's bye to get their crap together enough to give the Wolverines a game. Purdue is a 3-point favorite at Nebraska, so that game might be competitive, but so are most burrito-eating contests, and I don't want to watch those either (Sorry, Purdue).
But, much like a nice pico de gallo with a ghost pepper added to it, this week's Big Ten action is super hot due to the presence of a single ingredient: Ohio State's (-4) trip to State College. The Big Ten East will mostly be decided based on the results of the 6 games that will be played between the 4 main contenders: OSU, PSU, UofM, and MSU. One could certainly argue this weekend's game is the biggest of those 6, since Penn State and Ohio State have been the higher rated of those four teams all season. The winner of this contest will get a major boost towards the Big Ten Title and a trip to the playoffs. That said, the loser is not out of either the Big Ten East race or the Playoff race, as there is still a lot of football to be played, and there is precedent for a 11-1 non-division champ to make the playoffs (Right, Alabama?).
As for the game itself, it really could go either way. Ohio State was projected to be the better team in the preseason, they have a better overall win (TCU), and they have generally been the biggest bully on the block for the last decade or so. But, on the other side of the ledger, PSU is at home and based on both my metrics and the FPI, there is reason to believe that they might actually be the better team. My gut says that OSU will win this one, possibly comfortably, but there is a chance that Penn State just lights up the Buckeye defense. I will also say this: It is a strange time of the season for my algorithm, as I am still using the preseason rankings to "anchor" my power rankings due to the small number of games that are in the books so far. If I un-tether my rankings from the preseason rankings, Penn State actually goes up to #2 overall and my algorithm says that they will beat OSU by 28 points! While I think that this would be a very, very surprisingly result, this is why I like the math. It sometimes sees patterns before the "eye-test" can detect them.
SEC. Spice Level: Mild
Compared to the spicy week I expect in the Big Ten, the SEC is pretty weak sauce. Alabama opened as an astounding 51.5-favorite over Louisiana Lafayette. I personally wonder if the Ragin' Cajuns should just bet on themselves to cover, and then make sure to run the play clock down to zero on every snap when they have the ball. They could probably fund lacrosse for a decade with that strategy. Bama is not the only team predicted to have a blow-out win this week, as Georgia is a 33-point favorite over Tennessee, Auburn is -29.5 vs. Southern Miss, A&M is -16.5 vs. Arkansas, which seems crazy low, and LSU is -13.5 vs. Ole Miss (which also seems low). None of the favorites are even playing a true road game. Mild city. A month ago, Florida's visit to Mississippi State (-7) looked like a key cross-division showdown, but since both teams have a conference loss, this game's flavor is primarily desperation. So, the game-of-the-week is actually South Carolina at Kentucky (+1). Who's excited?!? In the preseason, it looked like the Gamecocks were the most likely potential challenger to Georgia in the East, but they lost to the Bulldogs by 24 points, at home, in Week 2. Now, Kentucky has risen to the top of the East standings and they suddenly look like a potential threat. But, if the Wildcats can't top the Cocks this weekend, maybe we will just have to admit that the race for the SEC East is already over.
ACC. Spice Level: Medium
While the ACC schedule this week lacks the punch of a national game like OSU-PSU, the line-up certainly has a bit more kick than the SEC schedule. Sure, we can expect some bland moments, like Syracuse at Clemson (-19.5), UNC at Miami (-18), Rice at Wake (-24.5), and BGSU at GA Tech (-25.5). But, the rest of the schedule might just bring on a case of the sweats. UCF (-14.5) looks to give Coach Narduzzi's Panthers some stomach trouble, and my algorithm likes Temple (+14.5) to score an upset over Boston College. In conference play, there are several match-ups that will help to bring some separation in the standings. Florida State finally got a win last week against an FBS opponent and this week they will try for 2 in a row at suddenly struggling Louisville (+5.5). While Vegas still has some faith in the Noles, my algorithm likes the upset. Virginia's 3-1 start is a bit of a surprise, and NC State (-8) has not been sufficiently tested for us to know if they are actually any good, so this game is a bit zesty as well. But, the main ingredient this week in the ACC is Virginia Tech's trip to visit Duke (-4). VA Tech obviously had a terrible loss last week, and the Blue Devils are off to a strong 4-0 start. The Hokies could certainly right the ship with a win and still be right in the thick of the Coastal Division race. If Duke wins, they could be 8-0 and in the Top 10 by early November prior to a crucial trip to the spicy city of Miami, which could decide the division title.
Big 12. Spice Level: Mild
While I would expect the tailgating fare at many of the Big 12 games will have some kick this weekend, the action on the field looks a bit more tame. Current favorite Oklahoma (-21) is not expected to be tested by Baylor, Iowa State's trip to Dallas to face TCU (-10.5) now looks to just be a battle for bowl game placement ("I want the Cheez-it Bowl!" "NO! I want the Cheez-it Bowl!!!"), and Oklahoma State at Kansas (+17) is... well... a college football game involving Kansas. So, that leaves just two games. First, the perhaps-not-yet-back-but-at-least-now-relevant Texas Longhorns will make the trip to Manhattan to face Kansas State (+7). Texas had a big win last week over TCU and K-State has so far been quite unimpressive. In other words, this is exactly the type of game Texas is likely to drop. Lastly, we have the slightly spicy match-up of West Virginia at Texas Tech (+4). The Red Raiders had a tough start to the season, getting roughed up by Ole Miss in Week 1, but they have since strung together 3 straight wins, including against a solid Houston squad and at Oklahoma State last week. West Virginia comes into the contest at 3-0, but perhaps less tested. If you believe my numbers (and I don't always believe my numbers) West Virginia currently has better odds than Oklahoma to win the Big 12 and make the playoffs. Their performance this week will, in part, start to reveal if this projection has legs or not.
PAC 12. Spice Level: Hot
A look at the schedule out west this weekend suggests that the avocado toast may be spiked with some jalapeno. Of the seven games, four of them have spreads smaller than four points. On the more mild side, Arizona State (-20) should be able to handle Oregon State, and Washington (-16.5) will try to keep BYU from getting as saucy as they did two weeks ago in Madison. For UCLA at Colorado (-11), they're just trying to get to bowl eligibility at this point ("Pass the Cheez-it!"). But, the other games should bring the heat. Both USC and Arizona (+2) still have hopes of winning the South, while Cal (+3.5) and Oregon have the same dream in the North. My algorithm likes the home-dog in both cases. In inter-division action, both Utah and Washington State (-2) are looking for their first conference win. But, the game of the week (and likely the second biggest game of the weekend) is the red hot match-up of Stanford at Notre Dame (-3.5). Both teams are 4-0 and looking to make a run at the playoffs. Neither team needs this win per se, as both could win out and still make the playoffs at 11-1, but the team that wins this game will be solidly in the playoff conversation for at least the next month. My algorithm likes the Cardinal in a mild upset.
Independents and Group of Five. Spice Level: Medium
Just to comment a little bit more on Notre Dame - Stanford, I do think that this game is a bit bigger for the Irish. Win or lose this week, Stanford still needs to beat Washington in a few weeks if they want a shot at the playoffs, realistically. But for the Irish, they have to be a little more worried about their remaining schedule. At the beginning of the season, it looked tough, but manageable, which is a great combination. Now, the back end is starting to look softer and softer. On paper, after this weekend, their toughest games are at Virginia Tech, at Northwestern, vs. Florida State, and at USC. Every single one of those teams seems to be underachieving thus far. Furthermore, time will only tell if that win over Michigan in Week 1 is going to continue to look good or not. If the Irish beat Stanford, I think that they are really going to be in a nice spot to make the playoffs, whether they are actually one of the best 4 teams in the country or not.
While Notre Dame certainly has a spicy contest this week, there are some game in the Group of Five that are also bringing a little heat. In the Mountain West, Boise State opens up conference play at Wyoming (+16). While the Cowboys are not off to the best of starts, this looks to be Boise's toughest remaining road contest. Also in the Mountain West, contender Fresno State plays host to a MAC West contender, Toledo (+10). Things are a bit more mild in the AAC, but UCF (-14.5) does get a shot at another Power Five pelt this week as they host Pitt. A win by the "defending champs" would be a cornerstone of a possible future NY6 fight with Boise, even if it does severely damage Coach Narduzzi's job security. In C-USA, current favorite, 4-0 North Texas (-7) will try to stay undefeated against one of their tougher remaining opponents, Louisiana Tech. Similarly in the MAC, Buffalo (-6) has an interesting match-up with Army where they will attempt to stay undefeated in the non-conference and in the NY6 race. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan (-3) will try to earn their first conference win over Northern Illinois and thus stake an early claim as a MAC-West contender.
That is all I have for now. Enjoy the games this weekend and, as always, Go State, Beat the Chips!
Well, Spartan fans, this week it's time for the Chips and Salsa course, and hopefully, the salsa will be mild.
Now, for those historians out there, facing the Chippawas of Central Michigan may bring back some bad memories. There has been a bit of spice to this intrastate clash. MSU lost to CMU 3 times in history, twice in the 90s and once in 2009. But, this is not your uncle's or big brother's version of the Chips, nor is it that version of MSU. For a lot of reasons, an earth shattering upset is very unlikely. Most basically, the spread opened at -28 for MSU, and that translates to a 2.4% chance that an upset would occur. Just to put this in context, an upset on this scale is only projected to happen about once every 2 years or so and one actually happened last week (Old Dominion over VA Tech). History bears this out as well, as I count only 8 upsets total with spreads at or above 28 points since 2001.
In addition, it helps a bit that this game is in Week 5 and not Week 1 or 2. We know more about both teams, and that means the odds that CMU is actually a lot better than we think it not that high. They have already played 4 games and the only one that they won was last week against traditional hockey powerhouse Maine. Unfortunately for the Black Bears, they were playing football. While CMU did give Kentucky some trouble for a while, and while Kentucky appears to be better than we thought, the Chips still lost that game by 14. Other than that, CMU got hammered by Kansas (yes, Kansas!) and then lost to Northern Illinois. While NIU is usually a solid MAC program, they have struggled so far this year and right now I have both CMU and NIU both ranked well outside of the Top 100.
So, is it possible that MSU blows this game? Sure. Of course it's possible, but it isn't very likely. What is more likely is that it is a nice little scrimmage where MSU can work on some things, get a look at some players that are a bit farther down the depth chart, and win by a comfortable margin. If those things do not happen, I am sure that MSU fans, players, and coaches will all be feeling a little heart-burn come Saturday night.
National Overview
Below I show my weekly chart of predictions relative to the Vegas spread. My algorithm likes 11 teams to cover this week: Ohio, Texas A&M, Alabama, Appalachian State, Fresno State, Eastern Michigan, Cincinnati, Duke, Arizona State, Air Force, and North Texas. Hopefully, I will do a little better with this week's picks compared to last week.
As for upsets, as the table below shows, my algorithm likes a total of 8 upsets, while the FPI is feeling bolder than usual by picking 7. Based on my simulation of the week, I would expect to see 12.5 ± 3.0 upsets. There are two notable upsets that both my math and the FPI agree upon and that is Cal beating Oregon (-3.5) and Penn State upsetting Ohio State (-4). More on that match-up later. As for the other notable upsets, I like Temple over BC, Louisville over Florida State, Stanford over Notre Dame, Arizona over USC, and Kentucky over the other USC. The FPI also likes Texas Tech to upset West Virginia.
Big Ten. Spice Level: Hot
The base recipe in the Big Ten this week is actually pretty mild. Five of the fourteen teams are on a bye week, and three of the five games have double digit spreads, including MSU's game, Indiana at Rutgers (+15), and Michigan at Northwestern (+11). None of those games should get spicy, but considering both home teams are underdogs in the conference games, I suppose you never know. It is certainly possible that Northwestern used last week's bye to get their crap together enough to give the Wolverines a game. Purdue is a 3-point favorite at Nebraska, so that game might be competitive, but so are most burrito-eating contests, and I don't want to watch those either (Sorry, Purdue).
But, much like a nice pico de gallo with a ghost pepper added to it, this week's Big Ten action is super hot due to the presence of a single ingredient: Ohio State's (-4) trip to State College. The Big Ten East will mostly be decided based on the results of the 6 games that will be played between the 4 main contenders: OSU, PSU, UofM, and MSU. One could certainly argue this weekend's game is the biggest of those 6, since Penn State and Ohio State have been the higher rated of those four teams all season. The winner of this contest will get a major boost towards the Big Ten Title and a trip to the playoffs. That said, the loser is not out of either the Big Ten East race or the Playoff race, as there is still a lot of football to be played, and there is precedent for a 11-1 non-division champ to make the playoffs (Right, Alabama?).
As for the game itself, it really could go either way. Ohio State was projected to be the better team in the preseason, they have a better overall win (TCU), and they have generally been the biggest bully on the block for the last decade or so. But, on the other side of the ledger, PSU is at home and based on both my metrics and the FPI, there is reason to believe that they might actually be the better team. My gut says that OSU will win this one, possibly comfortably, but there is a chance that Penn State just lights up the Buckeye defense. I will also say this: It is a strange time of the season for my algorithm, as I am still using the preseason rankings to "anchor" my power rankings due to the small number of games that are in the books so far. If I un-tether my rankings from the preseason rankings, Penn State actually goes up to #2 overall and my algorithm says that they will beat OSU by 28 points! While I think that this would be a very, very surprisingly result, this is why I like the math. It sometimes sees patterns before the "eye-test" can detect them.
SEC. Spice Level: Mild
Compared to the spicy week I expect in the Big Ten, the SEC is pretty weak sauce. Alabama opened as an astounding 51.5-favorite over Louisiana Lafayette. I personally wonder if the Ragin' Cajuns should just bet on themselves to cover, and then make sure to run the play clock down to zero on every snap when they have the ball. They could probably fund lacrosse for a decade with that strategy. Bama is not the only team predicted to have a blow-out win this week, as Georgia is a 33-point favorite over Tennessee, Auburn is -29.5 vs. Southern Miss, A&M is -16.5 vs. Arkansas, which seems crazy low, and LSU is -13.5 vs. Ole Miss (which also seems low). None of the favorites are even playing a true road game. Mild city. A month ago, Florida's visit to Mississippi State (-7) looked like a key cross-division showdown, but since both teams have a conference loss, this game's flavor is primarily desperation. So, the game-of-the-week is actually South Carolina at Kentucky (+1). Who's excited?!? In the preseason, it looked like the Gamecocks were the most likely potential challenger to Georgia in the East, but they lost to the Bulldogs by 24 points, at home, in Week 2. Now, Kentucky has risen to the top of the East standings and they suddenly look like a potential threat. But, if the Wildcats can't top the Cocks this weekend, maybe we will just have to admit that the race for the SEC East is already over.
ACC. Spice Level: Medium
While the ACC schedule this week lacks the punch of a national game like OSU-PSU, the line-up certainly has a bit more kick than the SEC schedule. Sure, we can expect some bland moments, like Syracuse at Clemson (-19.5), UNC at Miami (-18), Rice at Wake (-24.5), and BGSU at GA Tech (-25.5). But, the rest of the schedule might just bring on a case of the sweats. UCF (-14.5) looks to give Coach Narduzzi's Panthers some stomach trouble, and my algorithm likes Temple (+14.5) to score an upset over Boston College. In conference play, there are several match-ups that will help to bring some separation in the standings. Florida State finally got a win last week against an FBS opponent and this week they will try for 2 in a row at suddenly struggling Louisville (+5.5). While Vegas still has some faith in the Noles, my algorithm likes the upset. Virginia's 3-1 start is a bit of a surprise, and NC State (-8) has not been sufficiently tested for us to know if they are actually any good, so this game is a bit zesty as well. But, the main ingredient this week in the ACC is Virginia Tech's trip to visit Duke (-4). VA Tech obviously had a terrible loss last week, and the Blue Devils are off to a strong 4-0 start. The Hokies could certainly right the ship with a win and still be right in the thick of the Coastal Division race. If Duke wins, they could be 8-0 and in the Top 10 by early November prior to a crucial trip to the spicy city of Miami, which could decide the division title.
Big 12. Spice Level: Mild
While I would expect the tailgating fare at many of the Big 12 games will have some kick this weekend, the action on the field looks a bit more tame. Current favorite Oklahoma (-21) is not expected to be tested by Baylor, Iowa State's trip to Dallas to face TCU (-10.5) now looks to just be a battle for bowl game placement ("I want the Cheez-it Bowl!" "NO! I want the Cheez-it Bowl!!!"), and Oklahoma State at Kansas (+17) is... well... a college football game involving Kansas. So, that leaves just two games. First, the perhaps-not-yet-back-but-at-least-now-relevant Texas Longhorns will make the trip to Manhattan to face Kansas State (+7). Texas had a big win last week over TCU and K-State has so far been quite unimpressive. In other words, this is exactly the type of game Texas is likely to drop. Lastly, we have the slightly spicy match-up of West Virginia at Texas Tech (+4). The Red Raiders had a tough start to the season, getting roughed up by Ole Miss in Week 1, but they have since strung together 3 straight wins, including against a solid Houston squad and at Oklahoma State last week. West Virginia comes into the contest at 3-0, but perhaps less tested. If you believe my numbers (and I don't always believe my numbers) West Virginia currently has better odds than Oklahoma to win the Big 12 and make the playoffs. Their performance this week will, in part, start to reveal if this projection has legs or not.
PAC 12. Spice Level: Hot
A look at the schedule out west this weekend suggests that the avocado toast may be spiked with some jalapeno. Of the seven games, four of them have spreads smaller than four points. On the more mild side, Arizona State (-20) should be able to handle Oregon State, and Washington (-16.5) will try to keep BYU from getting as saucy as they did two weeks ago in Madison. For UCLA at Colorado (-11), they're just trying to get to bowl eligibility at this point ("Pass the Cheez-it!"). But, the other games should bring the heat. Both USC and Arizona (+2) still have hopes of winning the South, while Cal (+3.5) and Oregon have the same dream in the North. My algorithm likes the home-dog in both cases. In inter-division action, both Utah and Washington State (-2) are looking for their first conference win. But, the game of the week (and likely the second biggest game of the weekend) is the red hot match-up of Stanford at Notre Dame (-3.5). Both teams are 4-0 and looking to make a run at the playoffs. Neither team needs this win per se, as both could win out and still make the playoffs at 11-1, but the team that wins this game will be solidly in the playoff conversation for at least the next month. My algorithm likes the Cardinal in a mild upset.
Independents and Group of Five. Spice Level: Medium
Just to comment a little bit more on Notre Dame - Stanford, I do think that this game is a bit bigger for the Irish. Win or lose this week, Stanford still needs to beat Washington in a few weeks if they want a shot at the playoffs, realistically. But for the Irish, they have to be a little more worried about their remaining schedule. At the beginning of the season, it looked tough, but manageable, which is a great combination. Now, the back end is starting to look softer and softer. On paper, after this weekend, their toughest games are at Virginia Tech, at Northwestern, vs. Florida State, and at USC. Every single one of those teams seems to be underachieving thus far. Furthermore, time will only tell if that win over Michigan in Week 1 is going to continue to look good or not. If the Irish beat Stanford, I think that they are really going to be in a nice spot to make the playoffs, whether they are actually one of the best 4 teams in the country or not.
While Notre Dame certainly has a spicy contest this week, there are some game in the Group of Five that are also bringing a little heat. In the Mountain West, Boise State opens up conference play at Wyoming (+16). While the Cowboys are not off to the best of starts, this looks to be Boise's toughest remaining road contest. Also in the Mountain West, contender Fresno State plays host to a MAC West contender, Toledo (+10). Things are a bit more mild in the AAC, but UCF (-14.5) does get a shot at another Power Five pelt this week as they host Pitt. A win by the "defending champs" would be a cornerstone of a possible future NY6 fight with Boise, even if it does severely damage Coach Narduzzi's job security. In C-USA, current favorite, 4-0 North Texas (-7) will try to stay undefeated against one of their tougher remaining opponents, Louisiana Tech. Similarly in the MAC, Buffalo (-6) has an interesting match-up with Army where they will attempt to stay undefeated in the non-conference and in the NY6 race. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan (-3) will try to earn their first conference win over Northern Illinois and thus stake an early claim as a MAC-West contender.
That is all I have for now. Enjoy the games this weekend and, as always, Go State, Beat the Chips!
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