Week 8 Preview: Lying Low

Welcome to the bye week, Michigan State fans! We all know that it has been a tough season so far, but last weekend's overtime win seems to have rekindled the fire in the belly of Spartans fans near and wide. Not only that, but we all get a full two weeks to bask on the afterglow of the homecoming win over Wisconsin. By the time Oct. 29 rolls in, it might even feel like a two-game winning streak.

Until then, I suggest lying low for a while. Take a break. Go read a book, drink some cider, or carve a pumpkin. If your Wolverine neighbor wants to talk some smack, just smile and wave. We will have time for that next week.

Yes. Let's just lie low for a while. It's a good time of year to catch up on some backlogged television. Maybe we can catch one of Michigan State's recent upset wins in Ann Arbor on B1G Football in 60. Let's see, which one should we watch? 2020? 2017? 2015? Maybe 2010? There's just so many to choose from! It's exhausting just thinking about it. I think I need a nap.

Picks of the Week

While it might be a good week for us fans to take a rest, data never sleeps. So, as I do every week, Figures 1 and 2 below give this week's projected point spreads for each of the 53 games involving two FBS teams. Figure 1 shows the projected point differentials from my algorithm relative to the opening point spreads, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Figure 2 shows a similar analysis using the picks from ESPN's FPI.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening DraftKings lines for Week Eight.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening DraftKings lines for Week Eight.

Table 1 below summarizes the upset picks that are derived from the two figures above. My algorithm is certainly not napping on the job when it comes to upsets this week. It suggests a total of eight upset picks, including Duke over Miami, Kansas State over TCU, and Purdue over Wisconsin. ESPN's FPI provides three additional picks, including LSU over Ole Miss.

Table 1: Summary of upset picks for Week Seven Eight.

If the dear reader is so inclined to lay down a bet or two this week, Table 2 below summarizes the recommended wagers that are implied from Figures 1 and 2 above (i.e. the games that fall outside of the dotted diagonal lines.)

Table 2: Picks against the opening spread for Week Eight. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

Two of the three games this week involve Big Ten teams, as both computers like Maryland to cover the spread over Northwestern while my computer predicts that Iowa will cover versus Ohio State.

Table 3 below summarizes the recommended point total bets for the week, otherwise known as the "over / under" bets.

Table 3: Recommended total points bets (over / under) for Week Eight. Note that the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

This newest set of recommendations was having a phenomenal year until week hit and the performance hit a real low point. Hopefully these picks will show a strong rebound in Week Eight

Big Ten Overview

Michigan State is not the only Big Ten teams who plan to lay low this weekend. Michigan, Illinois, and Nebraska will join the Spartans on the couch on Saturday. But that still leaves five Big Ten games on the slate, the details of which are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Eight, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

Two of the five games will have little to no impact on the race in either Big Ten division. The winner of the contest between Rutgers (-3) and Indiana might be able to squeak into a bowl game, and Maryland (-13.5) is likely to blow out Northwestern at home. 

Minnesota travels to Penn State (-4.5) this week as both teams cling to fading hopes of a division crown. Both computers predict a win for the Nittany Lions, but they are split as to which team will cover the spread.

Ohio State returns from a bye this week to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes (+29) in what will be their sixth home game (out of seven total games) so far this year. In all likelihood, this will be a blowout, but my computer projects a much closer game than the Vegas line would suggest. This will also be the first time this year that Ohio State will face a team that Michigan has also played. As such, it will be the first chance to make a direct comparison between those two squads.

The game of the week in the Big Ten is Purdue's trip to Wisconsin (-2). While the Badgers are favored in this game, my computer likes the Boilermakers in an upset. If Purdue wants to keep pace with Illinois in the Big Ten West, a win in Madison may be required.

Notable National Action

Before we all head out to enjoy the fall weather, lets get the low-down on the other notable action nationwide. Table 5 below gives the details for the remaining games teams that I will be watching out for this coming weekend.

Table 5: Summary of other notable national action in Week Eight, including my algorithm’s projected scores.

The SEC East is generally laying low this week as well (with Georgia and Kentucky on a bye week and with Tennessee facing Tennessee-Martin), but there are a couple of SEC West match-ups that are worth watching. Alabama (-21) should have no problem at home against Mississippi State. But the biggest challenger to the SEC West crown will likely be in a dog fight, as first-place Ole Miss (-1.5) heads to Baton Rogue to face LSU. 

The FPI is sounding the upset alert in this match-up, but my algorithm predicts a comfortable win by the Rebels. Either way, Ole Miss will very likely need to beat Alabama in Oxford on Nov. 12 if they are to advance to the SEC Championship Game. 

In the Big 12 there will be high intrigue as the four teams at the top of the standings will all be playing each other. First, Kansas State travels to TCU (-3.5) and the winner will emerge in sole possession of first place in the conference. My algorithm projects an upset win by Kansas State. In the other highlighted game, Texas (-3.5) travels to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State. 

The Cowboys have a solid 5-1 record and No. 11 national ranking, but my algorithm has them ranked down at No. 35. As a result, my computer favors the Longhorns by over two touchdowns.

In ACC Atlantic Division, Clemson (-13.5) can for practical purposes wrap up the division with a home win over Syracuse. That said, my algorithm projects that this game will be much closer than the opening spread suggests. Things are generally quiet in the Coastal Division, as current front-runners North Carolina have the week off. Note that no team in this division is ranked higher than No. 50 in my current power rankings.

Last week two of the top four teams in the Pac-12 squared off and Utah wound edging out USC in Salt Lake City. Those two teams have the week off, but the other two members of the current top four will square off as UCLA travels to Oregon (-6). The winner will be alone in first place at the top of the Pac-12 standings. The is general consensus between Vegas and the computers that the Ducks will win by roughly a touchdown. 

Group of Five action is generally a bit on the down-low, but the four leading contenders for the spot in the New Year's Six are all in competitive games this week. In Sun Belt action, South Alabama (-3) hosts Troy, who very well may be the toughest team left on the Jaguars' schedule.

In American Athletic Conference (AAC) action, the three teams who remain undefeated in conference play (Central Florida, Tulane, and Cincinnati) will all get a stiff test. Tulane (-7) has the benefit of facing Memphis at home. Meanwhile Central Florida (-4) has to travel to East Carolina and Cincinnati (-3) must travel to Southern Methodist. The computers do not predict any upsets here, but my computer see the Bearcats' game as a virtual toss-up.

That is all the advice that I have to give this week. Rest up, Spartan fans, next week will be a big one. As always, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Skunk Bears!