There are a few things about the 2025-26 Michigan State Spartans basketball team that have become clearer over the past few weeks and in particular after Friday the 13th's dismal performance in Madison against the Wisconsin Badgers.
One odd observation it how opposite this season feels compared to last season. Last year's team started slow and gained momentum as the season went on. This year's team started strong and now stuck in the mud.
Last year's team struggled during the trip to the west coast. This year's team honestly has only played well on the road at Washington and at Oregon. Last year's team put the Michigan Wolverines in their place with double-digit wins in both meetings. This year's team allowed the skunk bears to win at Breslin for just the fourth time in over 30 years.
Both teams lost three of four games in the late January and early February "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle" part of the schedule. Last year's team rallied to win the Big Ten by three games. In this year's much tougher Big Ten, Michigan State is now effectively out of the race.
Some people have made the argument that the last few weeks ago have shown that MSU's ceiling is not as high as fans thought that is was. But I do not believe that is accurate.
The Spartans have played a total of eight teams ranked in the top 30 of Kenpom and the national polls. Michigan State defeated Illinois, North Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Iowa. Three of the five wins were by double digits.
The Spartans lost to Michigan, Duke, and Nebraska. All three of those teams are currently ranked in the top seven in the national polls. Michigan State was within one possession of the lead with at most four minutes remaining in all three of those contests. The Spartans have shown that they have the potential to play with and beat anyone in the country. The ceiling for this team remains high.
What the last four few weeks have told us is that the floor of this team is lower than fans may have thought. For whatever reason, the Spartans have only managed to play one decent game since destroying Maryland on Jan. 24.
If Michigan State collectively brings an A-/B+ level of effort and intensity, they can compete with anyone. If the Spartans only bring a C- level of effort, they are not good enough to win on the road in conference play.
The biggest question now in East Lansing is which version of the Spartans will fans see for the rest of the season? Historically, MSU tends to surge and overachieve from mid-February to the end of the season. But trends are only trends until they aren't.
Just like all MSU teams that have come before them, this team needs to decide how they want their legacy to be defined. They are currently a very good team with the potential to be great. But potential means nothing if it is not acted upon.
Update on the Big Ten Race
Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings following last weekend's action.
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| Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standing as of Feb. 16. |
The Michigan Wolverines continue to have a two-game lead in the loss column compared to the rest of the field. The Spartans' loss to Wisconsin has dropped MSU into a tie for fifth place with Wisconsin. The Badgers now own a tiebreaker with Michigan State for the purposes of Big Ten Tournament seeding.
Michigan State is also one of only two teams in the top half of the conference with negative "luck." This means that based on overall Kenpom efficiency margins, MSU should have won more than 10 games so far in Big Ten play.
Sometime luck is simply that. It is impacted by bad bounces, cold/hot shooting, etc. However, it is also true that good teams tend to make their own luck by playing with grit and intensity. The Spartans have simply not done enough to create their own luck over the past few weeks. That is now showing up in the standings.
Table 2 below shows the updated odds for each team to win or share the regular season Big Ten title.
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| Table 2: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning team(s). |
The odds for the Wolverines to earn at least a share of the Big Ten title continues to be over 90% and there is over a 70% chance that it will be a solo title. Illinois (18.5%) and Purdue (10.6%) both still have an outside chance to at least tie the Wolverines. Both teams also have the advantage of getting a chance to play Michigan in their own buildings before the end of the season.
Nebraska (7.8%) also still has a chance for Big Ten glory. The odds for the Spartans are not yet zero, but they might as well be. I currently give MSU a 1-in-350 chance to somehow finish tied at the top of the standings at the end of the season.
Even in Michigan State were to win out (which has less than a 2% chance of happening) there is only a 1-in-6 chance of claiming a share of the title.
Wisconsin has an even more remote 1-in-1,500 chance to claim a Big Ten title. UCLA, Iowa, and Ohio State are still mathematically alive, but none of those teams finished in a first-place tie in any of my most recent 500,000-cycle simulations.
Where does MSU go from here?
With the Big Ten race all but over for the Spartans, it is time to start thinking about the post-season in earnest. The most important near-term goal is simply to start playing better and more consistent basketball. MSU needs to find a way back to the level of play exhibited in parts of the non-conference and early Big Ten schedule.
Based on MSU's overall season performance, Figure 1 below shows the current projection for the Spartans' Big Ten win distribution.
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| Figure 1: Michigan State projected conference win distribution as of Feb. 16. |
The Spartans' expected win total has dropped to 13.65, which is the lowest level since early December when no one really knew how good anyone really was. The most likely finally record for Michigan State 14-6 (40% odds) with a 13-7 record as second most likely (32%).
There is about a 17% chance that MSU can finish at 15-5 or better. There is a 10.5% chance of a final record of 12-8 or worse.
The Spartans are still projected to be a close to a double-digit favorite at home against UCLA and Ohio State this week. MSU should be over a 20-point favorite in the final home game against Rutgers. Assuming that Michigan State can get back to playing at least some form of competent basketball, getting to 13 wins is very manageable.
If MSU is to get to 14 or more Big Ten wins, the Spartans are going to need to win at least one of the remaining road games at Purdue, at Indiana, and at Michigan. MSU will likely be a slight favorite at Indiana, but a solid underdog in the other two games.
A typical MSU team overachieves in the final weeks of the season relative to the spread and Kenpom expectation. Time will tell if this team can also turn things around as March approaches.
Big Ten Tournament Update
As the end of the regular season approaches, it is time to take a closer look at the different seeding scenarios for the Big Ten Tournament. Table 3 below gives the odds for each team to earn each seed.
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| Table 3: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds |
We have reached that magical time of the year when it is common to show the potential Big Ten tournament bracket assuming that "the season ended today."
But this type of analysis is not that useful, as the season doesn't end today. There are still several high-impact games left on the schedule that will absolutely impact the final bracket. Table 3 above gives a much more useful view of the likelihood of the different seeding scenarios.
MSU's loss at Wisconsin has placed a major dent in the Spartans' hopes at a top-four seed and starting the tournament on Friday with a triple bye. Those odds are now down to just 16%.
Instead, the Spartans are now grappling with Wisconsin for the No. 5 and No. 6 seed. Both teams have over a 70% chance to earn one of those two seeds. MSU also has a 13% chance to drop to the No. 7 seed or worse.
Note that if the Spartans can run the table and finish at 16-4, there is virtually a 100% chance that they will earn a triple bye. A 15-5 record earns a triple bye in two-thirds of my latest simulations. A 14-6 record only results in a triple bye less than 10% of the time.
Currently, Michigan State has a slightly higher expected seed than Wisconsin, but if the favored team were to win all remaining games, the two teams would end the season tied at 14-6 in which case the Badgers would get the No. 5 seed due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
That said, the No. 6 seed is likely more appealing this year as it would prevent a possible rematch with projected No. 1 Michigan (75% odds) until the Big Ten Tournament Final, if both teams were to advance that far.
Also note that the Spartans' most likely first Big Ten Tournament opponent is now either Washington (22%) and USC (10%). I currently project about a 5% chance for Michigan State to win the Big Ten Tournament.
That said, I am not convinced that a long run in the conference tournament is in the Spartans' best interest this year. Michigan State needs to continue to build for the more important tournament in March. Based on the back-up point guard situation, conserving some fuel for Jeremey Fears is likely the better option in the long run.
Looking Forward to March
A few weeks ago, Michigan State appeared poised to earn a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a great chance to stay fairly close to home on the first weekend.
But after the last few weeks, the Spartans are now trending as a No. 4 seed in most mock brackets and according to my seeding algorithm. My calculations suggest that a No. 3 seed is likely the ceiling if the Spartans were to go on a run to close out the season with an outside chance at a No. 2 seed.
Conversely, if the Spartans were literally to lose out, my calculations would project a final seed of no worse than No. 7 with a No. 6 seed.
If Michigan State does end up as a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, the Spartans will most likely not be placed in the Midwest Region with presumed No. 1 seed Michigan. But the other three regions seem almost equal in likelihood. That said, if Gonzaga also continues to hang around the No. 4 seed line, they are a bit more likely to be placed in the West Region instead of MSU.
Duke is still projected as the No. 1 seed in the East. All things being equal, the Selection Committee would likely prefer to avoid the potential Duke/Michigan State rematch in the Sweet Sixteen. This suggests to me that the South Region, likely paired with the potentially weakest No. 1 seed (UConn or Houston) is the most likely current placement, but only marginally.
Once Michigan State gets into the Tournament, the good news is that there is still reasons for optimism that the Spartans can have a strong finish to the season. Figure 2 below shows the updated Kenpom efficiency scatter plot.
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| Figure 2: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Feb. 16, 2026. |
As the figure shows, despite the Spartans recent dip in performance, Michigan State continues to be one of just a handful of teams with the combination of offensive and defensive efficiency consistent with past national champions.
Michigan State remains one of only 11 teams in the primary, dark blue area and one of only 14 total teams in the combined blue region. Note than teams such as Purdue, Illinois, and Vanderbilt continue to remain outside of this region due to deficiencies on defense.
Figure 2 also highlights the main issue with the Spartans over the past few weeks. MSU's offensive efficiency has remained relatively constant since mid January. However, the defensive efficiency has slipped significantly.
This is consistent with what fans have seen on the floor. The good news is that the Spartans have shown the ability to defend at a high level for most of the season. Defense is usually a function of focus, intensity, and attention to detail.
These are all factors well within the Spartans' control. There is reason to believe that Izzo can get Michigan State back on track for another deep run in March.
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