Michigan State Stats Update for Feb. 13

The Big Ten race is always a rollercoaster, but the past week has been a more volatile ride than usual.

Last Saturday, the Michigan State Spartans got a much needed win over No. 5 Illinois in overtime at the Breslin Center. After three straight games of subpar performance, the version of the Spartans which can make a serious post-season run finally reemerged.

Some would argue that MSU broke out of the typical mid-season slump know in some circles as the Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle.

But East Lansing was not the only locale that was gripped by drama this week. On Tuesday night, Purdue went into to Lincoln, Neb. and scored an upset win over the Corn Huskers. Later in the evening, the Wisconsin Badgers managed to to hand the Fighting Illini their second straight overtime loss, this time in the friendly confines of State Farm Center in Champaign, Ill. 

On Wednesday night, Michigan trailed by as many as 16 points in the second half at Northwestern. It looked for a while like the upset bug might bite the Wolverines as well. But the Wildcats went ice cold in the final 10 minutes as the Wolverines got red hot, and Michigan would go on to win by double digits.

As of Friday the 13th of February, Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standing as of Feb. 13.

Michigan now has a two-game lead in the loss column over the rest of the field and an impressive +6 rating due to seven road victories to just one home loss. Illinois is a half game ahead of the rest of the contenders at 11-3 while Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan State are now all tied at 10-3.

Wisconsin and UCLA are a game back at 9-4 and Iowa rounds out the top eight in the conference at 8-4.

Table 2 below gives the updated Big Ten win matrix.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix.

The Wolverines' expected win total is 17.54 which implies there is roughly a 50-50 chance of Michigan finishing at 18-2 or better. Illinois (15.72) has the second-best expected win total and is just under a half-game ahead of Nebraska (15.30).

Purdue (14.72) is a little over a half-game behind Nebraska in expected wins. Michigan State (14.49) is just behind the Boilermakers. Despite being just a game back in the standings, Wisconsin (12.53) is almost two full games behind MSU in expected wins. 

The Spartans and Boilermakers have similar Kenpom efficiencies and MSU actually has the easier closing schedule of the two teams. However, the fact that Purdue gets to host the only meeting of the year between the two teams appears to be the factor which gives Purdue a slightly higher expected win total.

Table 2 also shows that it is most likely that Michigan State will finish with a regular season conference record of 15-5 (34.4%) or 14-6 (32.1%). More optimistically, there is a 16.8% that the Spartans finish at 16-4 and a 2.1% chance that MSU runs the table to finish at 17-3.

There is also the pessimistic version of events where there is a 14.2% chance of a final record of 13-7 and a 3.2% chance that Michigan finishes at 12-8 or worse.

Table 3 below shows how the expected wins translate into odds to win at least of share of the Big Ten regular season title.

Table 3: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning team(s).

With a two-game lead and just six games to go, my calculations currently give Michigan a 91.8% chance to claim a share of the title and a 72.6% chance to win it outright.

Illinois has the best odds to at least tie the Wolverines (18.6%). The odds for Nebraska (7.7%) and Purdue (6%) have slipped below 10%. The Spartans' odds currently stand at 3.4%, which is three-times better than MSU's odds going into the Illinois game.

As for Big Ten Tournament seeding, Michigan State is currently projected as the No. 5 seed behind the four other primary contenders. If MSU has a final record of 15-5, the odds of earning a top four seed are 72%. A better record than that virtually guarantees a top four seed. A record of 14-6 or worse drops the odds of a top four seed down to 22%.

The Narrow Path to a Title

Clearly, the Spartans face steep odds to repeat as Big Ten Champions. However, there is a fairly clear path if the Green and White are tough enough to travel it.

The losses this week by Illinois and Nebraska mean that MSU now controls its own destiny relative to every Big Ten team expect one: the Michigan Wolverines. IF the Spartans can run the table (which has odds of just 2.1%), they only need Michigan to drop one other game prior to the regular season finale in Ann Arbor in order have a chance to claim a share of the title.

From the Michigan State point of view, Figure 1 below summarizes the projected point spreads and win probabilities for MSU in the seven remaining regular season games.

Figure 1: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margin.

Tonight's game at Wisconsin presents the biggest and most important challenge. Kenpom data gives the Spartans about a 62% chance to win on the road. That said, the current Vegas line is MSU as just a 1.5-point favorite. That suggests the odds are closer to just 56%.

If the Spartans can survive the road test against the Badgers, MSU is expected to be about a 10-point favorite at home against both UCLA and Ohio State. Even more encouraging is that the games are spaced four and five days apart. My calculations give Michigan State a 71% chance to win both home games and a 46% chance to be 13-3 headed into the final stretch.

The fate of the Spartans' 2026 Big Ten regular season likely will be decided based on MSU's performance in the final three road games of the season. Michigan State is projected to be about a 3.5-point underdog at Purdue and a 3.0-point favorite at Indiana with the games spaced just three days apart.

Winning both games will be very challenging, but not impossible. The Spartans traditionally don't have a lot of success in either building, and the tight spacing between the two games increases the level of difficultly. Michigan State has not won at Purdue since 2014 and has not won at Indiana since 2021.

The odds to win both games are projected to be just 22%. But if MSU can find a way to win the next five games in a row, the Spartans will be heavy favorites in final home game of the season versus Rutgers (+22.5). 

I estimate that there is a 10% chance that the Spartans will enter the final game of the regular season in Ann Arbor with a record of 16-3. As we will see, if this scenario were to come to pass, there is a great chance that the Spartans will have a chance to claim at least of share of the title against the Wolverines.

While odds of just 2.1% seem grim, keep in mind that almost exactly a year ago today, Michigan State dropped a home game to Indiana. At that point in the season, I game MSU just a 0.5% chance to run the table in the regular season. 

But that is exactly what they did, including scoring three upset road victories over Illinois, Michigan, and Maryland and tough wins at home over Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan.

A Little Help From that Team Down the Road

If the Spartans do win the next six games, the Wolverines would only need to lose one game between now and the rematch with MSU to create the scenario where the Spartans could claim the Big Ten title with a win over Michigan to close out the regular season.

If Michigan were to lose two games between now and then, there is a chance that the showdown in Crisler could become a winner-take-all contest for at least a share of the title.

What are the odds of these two scenarios? Figure 2 provides some insight by showing the Wolverines' remaining conference schedule using the same format as Figure 1 above.

Figure 2: Odds for Michigan to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margin

The good news for the rest of the Big Ten is that the Wolverines have the most difficult remaining in the conference. Michigan is currently projected to be a favorite in all six games, but half of the remaining games are against the group of conference contenders and two of those game are near toss-ups at Purdue and at Illinois.

Also note from a scheduling point of view that Michigan has a neutral site game in Washington D.C. on Feb. 21 between the road game at Purdue and the home game against Minnesota that is not shown in the Figure

Based on the probabilities in Figure 2, Michigan has less than a 20% chance to run the table. The most likely loss is at Illinois on Feb. 27, but next Tuesday's game at Purdue will be challenging, as will the early March road game to Iowa City.

This means that if MSU can make it to Ann Arbor without another loss, there is an 80% chance that a Big Ten title will be on the table.

The most likely scenario for Michigan would be to enter the season finale with the Spartans with a conference record of 17-2. I estimate that there is a 44% chance of this scenario for the Wolverines.

But the most intriguing scenario is the one where Michigan drops at least two conference games over the next five. It is not a stretch to image the Wolverines losing at least two of the three tough road games at Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa. The odds of this scenario are actually 37%.

Overall, there is a 2% chance that MSU runs the table, but that Michigan will have already claimed the solo Big Ten title prior to the regular season finale. There is a 4.4% chance that MSU runs the table and will have a shot to share the title with Michigan on Mar. 8. There is a 3.7% chance that MSU runs the table and will have a chance to take the title away from the Wolverines at Crisler Arena.

As things stand today, Michigan is projected to be about a 8.5-point favorite over Michigan State on the final day of the regular season. This would give MSU about a 20% of possible Big Ten glory. I don't mind those odds.

That said, this particular path all depends on the Spartans getting the win tonight in Madison. Failing that, it will be time to simply talk about Big Ten and NCAA Tournament seeding.