Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

 Author Douglas Adams once wrote: " There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened. " In many ways, this quote seems to capture the entire experience of 2020. Moreover, it perhaps also explains the experience of MSU fans last weekend. Big Ten fans have had a lot of time on our hand to think about life, the universe, and everything that might have happened in the 2020 season. Some people even simulated the entire 2020 season based on the original schedule just for fun. But, when the current eight-game schedule was released, excitement started to build. For fans in East Lansing, expectations were moderate (most people predicted a record of 3-5) but hope was starting to build that maybe, just maybe the Mel Tucker era would get off to a strong start. Then,...

One basic mathematical truth about college football that I have posted about is that the Vegas line is the best overall predictor of the outcome of games, but that the variance is actually much higher than fans think.  For a large set of games with exactly the same line, the average margin of victory for the favored team is generally equal to the Vegas line. Furthermore, I have shown that the distribution of the margins of victory follows the Gaussian / Normal distribution with a standard deviation of almost exactly 14 points. Practically, what this means is that only about two-thirds of all games (68.3%, to be exact) will end up with a final margin of victory within 14 points of the spread. Of the remaining one-third of all games, half (about one in six) will result in the favored team covering by more than 14 points, and the other half (one in six) will result in the favored team not covering by more than 14 points. This past weekend, MSU was favored by 13 points and wound up l...

On October 14th, Mel Tucker tweeted out a video with the message "Ball security is job security." Following MSU's seven-turn over, 38 to 27 loss to Rutgers, I think that it is fair to ask the question, "exactly whose job is still safe?"   Let's start with the wide received position. Jaden Reed clearly looks like MSU's best receiver, yet he fumbled twice. Jalen Nailor is the clear No. 2... yet he muffed a punt. Running backs? True freshman Jordan Simmons had the best day overall (except for a fumble). Quarterback? Honestly, if you would have told me that Rocky Lombardi was going to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns with over 70 percent accuracy, I would have been pretty happy... as long as you left out the fumble and two interceptions.  In fairness to Rocky, though, it is not clear that any of his three turnovers were actually his fault. The first interception may have been on Nailor, the second interception was in desperation, and the fumble...

Let's start with the obvious: the 2020 college football season is like nothing that any of us have ever seen. Much like everything else in 2020, it is steeped in uncertainty. It seemed for a very long time that football was not going to happen at all. Then, it looked like only half of the conferences would actually play, but that they would get likely shut down by the end of September.  But, as the first few weeks of September came and went with only some minor hiccups, the rumors began to spread that momentum was building for the the Big Ten to attempt to play after all. Then, came "the announcement" and now, we are here, where ever "here" is. Our position still seems a bit uncertain. Regarding Michigan State, the last time anyone outside of the Skandalaris Football Center saw the Green and White on the field, they were hoisting the Pinstripe Bowl Trophy in Yankee Stadium in late December. In the mean time, the Spartans have a new coaching staff, a new strength...

The real start to the Big Ten season is right around the corner, but what might have happened if the original schedule would have been played as scheduled? For the last six weeks, I have been "reporting" on such a universe as defined by a computer simulation that I performed this summer. Let's check in to see what might have happened in Week Seven Season Overview It has not been a perfect season so far for the Spartans, but after six weeks MSU is sitting with a record of 4-2 overall and 2-1 in Big Ten play. The Spartans earned victories over Northwestern, Toledo, Miami, and most recently, Michigan, but were defeated soundly in the two road games at BYU and at Iowa.  Elsewhere in the Big Ten, as expected Ohio State (5-0 overall / 2-0 in conference) and Penn State (4-1 / 2-0) look to be the cream of the crop in the Big Ten East. Out West, Illinois entered the week 5-0 and in first place by themselves in conference play, albeit against suspect competition. In Ann Arbor, the ...

Over the summer and in the lead up to the delayed but now-likely-to-happen season, I have provided a variety of mathematical analyses and previews of the 2020 college football landscape and Big Ten schedule. Briefly, over the years I have developed my own college football power rankings and tools to translate those rankings into predictions and probabilities related to how the season might progress.  Most recently, I presented my odds for each Big Ten team to win both their respective division and the conference as a whole. I also presented the number of expected wins for each team based on a series of probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations which take in account the historical uncertainty of the preseason rankings. Now that we are less than two weeks away from the actual kick-off of a Big Ten game, several sources have started to release division and conference odds, as well as the over / under for the number of total regular season wins. If we connect these dots, my mathematic anal...

In the parallel universe, we have reached Week Six of the original schedule. In our universe, Big Ten football is still ramping up, but elsewhere in the multiverse, the season is in full swing. This is a big week in the parallel universe in the Great Lakes State. For MSU fans, it's Michigan Week. But, before we get into what happened in East Lansing this week, let's take a quick look first at how the season is shaking out so far. Season Review The Coach Tucker era in East Lansing got off to a strong start, as the Spartans finished September with a 3-1 record and a win over a ranked Miami team. But, MSU's road trip to Iowa City last week did not go well and the record now stands at 3-2. Elsewhere in Big Ten play, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois are all off to undefeated starts and Penn State is close behind at 4-1. Meanwhile, in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines sit at 2-3 and on a three-game losing streak. In other national news, Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia Tech are al...