Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

The last week or so of Michigan State Spartan basketball has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride. A week ago, the Spartans were coming off a demoralizing loss to the short-handed Northwestern Wildcats at home to snap a nine-game winning streak.  Then, the Spartans went to Madison last Friday and dominated a top 10-ranked Wisconsin Badger team in their own building. But, a few days later, the Spartans were ice cold from the floor and a little sloppy once more in a narrow defeat in Champaign, Illinois to the Illini.  It has been the story of one step forward and one step back. Is the 2022 version of the Michigan State Spartans a true Big Ten title contender or not? While it is not at all unprecedented for a Tom Izzo coached team to see some slippage in the middle of the Big Ten season, The current lack of consistency is frustrating.  Where does the last week of action leave the Big Ten race? Once again, let's dig into the numbers. Enhanced Big Ten Standings and Updated Odds ...

It is tough to be a college football fan in the summer time. After spring game comes to an end, there are four long months before the kick-off of the next year. In that time, fans and pundits alike have four months to simply think, talk, and dream about what the future will hold for their team of choice. In the summer of 2021 I made a series of predictions about the upcoming season based on a mathematical analysis of the preseason rankings and some historical trends. As we close the book on the 2021 season, it is time to revisit those predictions to see how accurate they were and what that might teach us about the predictions that we will soon hear about the 2022 season. Michigan State's Season in Review Last summer, the experts had very low expectation for the Michigan State Spartans. The preseason magazines had MSU ranked as high as No. 56 (by ESPN's FPI) and as low as No. 87 (by Phil Steele). Based on these rankings, my calculations and most pundits projected that the Sparta...

Make no mistake. Michigan State University head basketball Coach Tom Izzo saw the loss to the Northwestern Wildcats coming on Saturday. Coach Izzo essentially said as much in his post game press conference. Those watching closely were also not surprised. The Spartans have seemed a bit sluggish and unfocused since Christmas, and it seemed like only a matter of time before it caught up with them in the form of a loss. Had the Spartans managed to eek out a win against the Wildcats, Michigan State would be alone in first place at the top of the Big Ten conference. But, the problems with turnovers, rebounding, and defense would likely have persisted. Now, Coach Izzo will likely have the full attention of his roster and almost a week to tighten some screws before the Spartans hit to road to Madison on Friday. That said, the loss to Northwestern may very well end of very costly. Prior to the loss, the Spartans were projected to have about a 20 percent chance to win or share the regular season...

The games have all been played. The trophies have been handed out. The confetti cannons have all been fully discharged. The 2021-22 college football season has come to an end.  On Jan. 10, the Georgia Bulldogs claimed their first national title since 1980 by finally defeating Alabama by a score of  33-18. Over the previous month, 35 other teams also finished their seasons with a satisfying bowl victory. The Michigan State Spartans were one of those teams, due to the thrilling, come-from-behind victory over the Pittsburgh Panthers in the Peach Bowl. Throughout the season and prior to bowl season, I provided a weekly preview and bit of advice on the games that were to come. Every week, I reported back on the action and on the accuracy of my advice. Today, it is time to provide one final recap of the 2021-21 bowl season. Bowl Results Figure 1 below shows the results of all 37 bowl games leading up to (but not including) the national title game on Monday night. Figure 1: Results ...

To reschedule or not to reschedule? That is the question on the minds of many Big Ten and specifically Michigan State University basketball fans this week. On Saturday, the Spartans were planning to face the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor in the first of two scheduled games this year. However, the game was officially postponed just hours before tip-off due to COVID-19 protocols in the Michigan program. In an ideal world, there would be enough time and flexibility in the Big Ten conference schedule to allow for the game to be rescheduled sometime later this year. Unfortunately, the current 20-game conference slate will make it difficult to find a date where one or both teams is not forced to play three or four games in an eight- or nine-day span, similar to what Michigan State went through at the end of the 2021 season. Based on Coach Izzo's comments on Monday, Michigan State seems unlikely to support this option. “I’m not in the mood to do what we did last year where we played fo...

The last time we checked our telescopes, the Michigan State University basketball team was entering 2021 with a nice 11-2 record overall, including a perfect 2-0 mark in Big Ten play. While things were certainly going better than expected in East Lansing, the Spartans were generally still projected to finish on the periphery of the upper echelon of the conference.  A lot has changed in the last week. MSU won two tough games at Northwestern and versus a suddenly scrappy Nebraska squad in the Breslin Center. In addition, teams like Purdue and Ohio State both absorbed losses. Don't look now, but the Spartans have shot up to the top of the Big Ten standing like a comet from somewhere in the Oort Cloud.  But, are the Green and White now on a collision course for yet anther Big Ten title, or will those dreams break up somewhere in the upper atmosphere? In cases like these, I think that it is best to ask, "what would Leonardo Dicaprio and Jennifer Lawrence do?" Most likely, they...

Happy New Year, Spartan fans! First off, I just wanted to congratulate Coach Mel Tucker and the Michigan Sate University Football team on the exciting, come-from-behind win over Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl.  Now that the football season is in the books, it is time to shift focus to basketball. A month ago, I provided an initial analysis of the Big Ten basketball season based on a simulation that used Kenpom efficiency data as the primary input. I am able to use this data to perform a full simulation of the Big Ten season as well as the Big Ten Tournament. As conference play is set to resume, it is time to check back on the data to see what has changed and where MSU and the rest of the conference now stands. Enhanced Big Ten Standings and Updated Odds Figure 1 below visualizes the current Kenpom adjusted efficiency margins for the 14 teams in the Big Ten. As a very brief reminder, efficiency margins represent the point differential that each team would be expected to have against a...