Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

Just a few days ago, it seemed likely that much of the focus this week was going to center on if the Michigan State Spartans were going to make the NCAA Tournament and if so, could they avoid the First Four pair of games reserved for the "last four teams in." But, then MSU went out and beat No. 2 ranked Michigan on the last day of the regular season to all but clinch a ticket to big dance. Basically all prognosticators agree that even if the Spartans drop their first Big Ten Tournament game to the Maryland Terrapins, the Spartans will see their names in the bracket on Sunday night. However, what seed is MSU likely to receive? Who are some likely opponents? What is the best and worst case scenarios? I would like to explore these questions today. But before we do that, let's get an update on the "newly" created results-based metric to compare teams, the NEW Index. NEW Update This weekend, I introduced the "performance relative to Normalize Expected Wins"...

Michigan State fans had a great weekend. Not only did the Spartans beat a highly-ranked Michigan Wolverines squad, but in doing so, the Green and White almost certainly secured a bid to Michigan State's 23rd consecutive NCAA Tournament. Barring a miracle run by the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament, in two year MSU might just own the second longest streak in history, second only to Kansas' current record of 30 (and counting). That said, the Spartans did still finish below .500 in conference play. By that measure, this is officially Tom Izzo's worst team on record. But, as the old saying goes, happiness is the difference between expectation and reality. Our collective spirits were so low at the beginning of February that the run over the past few weeks was as exciting and satisfying as any run to the Final Four, and likely more challenging.  What can I say? These are certainly strange times that we are living in. But the fact remains that at least for the regular season...

In retrospect, we really should have seen this coming.  Well, maybe that it a stretch. After all, the 2020-21 Michigan Sate Spartans were just 4-9 on Feb 17. Long-time Spartan fans had seen Tom Izzo-coached teams weather adversity in the first months of the season only to surge to greatness in closing weeks of the season. But this year, with this team, the hole seemed too deep. There were so many reason to doubt this team. They suffered through COVID outbreaks, shooting slumps, and maddening inconstancy, and all of these things just happen to hit in a year when the Big Ten is the strongest conference of the entire Kenpom era. It also did not help that the Spartans just graduated one of the best point guards that has ever worn the Green and White. Tom Izzo is one of the greatest coaches of all time, but even he seemed to have no answers. But then came the win at Indiana, followed by the wins over Illinois and Ohio State, and Spartan fans dared to hope. The Spartans faltered at Maryl...

As Selection Sunday approaches, amateur and "professional" bracketologists alike can't stop talking about resumes. Which teams are "in?" Which teams are "out?" How can we tell? How to we fairly compare a team from the Big Ten with a team from the Atlantic 10? Bracketologists discuss records, quality wins, and bad losses. But recently, the use of various metrics has been used to judge whether a team does or does not deserve a ticket to the Big Dance. When it comes to college basketball metrics, there are a lot to choose from, and from a team point of view there are generally two types: prediction-based and results-based. Prediction-based metrics , such as Kenpom efficiency margins, are designed to predict how a team is likely to perform in the future, based on how they have performed in the past. Kenpom's method measures how many points a team scores or gives up per possession , and then makes an adjustment based on the quality of the opponent.  In ...

The Michigan State Spartan's final conference road game in Ann Arbor on Thursday night did not go quite as well as we had hoped. As a result, the Wolverines are the 2021 Big Ten Champs and MSU is still now quite squarely on the bubble. Fortunately, most pundits still seem to have MSU at least in the "last four in" category. A win on Thursday would have been awesome. It would have very likely iced an NCAA Tournament bid and it possibly would have forced the Wolverines to get a win in East Lansing in order to hang a banner. That would have been fun, but unfortunately it was not meant to be. But, as the old saying goes, "if first you don't succeed, try, try again." The Spartans may have been outclassed on Thursday, but when the teams meet again in East Lansing, there is at least a chance things will turn out differently.  If MSU can find a way to shoot the ball a bit better, scrap a little harder for rebounds and loose ball, and defend more effectively, the Gre...

Just 12 days ago, MSU's season seemed to be on the brink. The Spartans had just come off from back-to-back loses to Iowa and Purdue and were sitting 4-9 in conference play and just barely over .500 overall. Fans and pundits alike were lamenting about the loss of MSU's NCAA Tournament streak, like it was a foregone conclusion. But starting on a Saturday afternoon in Bloomington, Indiana, Michigan State's season started to turn around. The Spartans have now won four of the last five games, and six of the last nine games. With Tuesday night's thrilling (if ugly) win over the Hoosiers, once again, the Spartans now seem to be on a more positive brink, the brink of an NCAA Tournament bid. I have been saying for weeks that getting to eight Big Ten regular season wins was a major milestone in the hunt for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Two weeks ago, getting to that number seemed like a long shot. Today, that milestone is in the rear view mirror.  So, what is next for the Mic...