2013 College Football Preseason Analysis

It is hard to believe that 12 months have already past. My baby daughter has grown into a 1-year old toddler, which means it is July again. The MLB All Star game has faded in the rearview mirror. The long, dark summer of baseball is beginning to wane, which signals that college football is only about a month away. In the Fanson household, that can only mean one thing: it is time for spreadsheet.

I introduced the spreadsheet 2 years ago, but just to refresh everyone’s memory, I will now insert the same explanatory paragraph that I used last year. I starting putting the spreadsheet together in grad school and I have been making steady improvements to it over the years. I used to just track scores and standings, but over time I have refined the algorithms to predict game outcome / point spreads and generate power rankings. As the 2013 season approaches, I have once again inputted the schedule information into the latest version of the spreadsheet and am taking an early look at what to expect. If I take the pre-season rankings for each team, convert that to an estimated power ranking, and simulate the season by correcting for a teams performance at home or on the road (roughly a 3-point advantage for the home team), I can to predict the final record of all 125 FBS teams. As with last year, I have expanded the set of data used to generate the pre-season rankings by taking the average of several pre-season publications (including Athlon’s, Lindy’s, Phil Steele, ESPN, and USA Today). Keep in mind that these results are purely based on math once the pre-season rankings are inputted.

Now, at this point, you might well be asking the question, “Paul, why should we believe anything that you say. After all, last year you told us USC would beat Clemson in the National Title game, MSU would go to the Rose Bowl and no SEC team would finish with less than 3 loses.” Well, point taken. My method is certain not without its faults. USC and MSU were just not as good last year as the preseason rankings predicted. Clemson did not quite get the breaks they needed (but they did beat a solid LSU team in the Peach Bowl (aka the Chik-Fil-A Bowl)), and as it turns out, Alabama and Notre Dame’s road schedules were not as tough as they appeared in the preseason. In other words, I would not take the predictions below to Vegas along with the deed to your house. But, I find this entire analysis to be quite entertaining, and I hope you do as well (I expect that you do, or let’s face it, you would have already clicked onto the next cat video in you news feed by now). In any event, it can’t be any less logical than anyone else’s prediction out, now can it? So, without further ado, here are this year’s results.

Let’s start as always in the Big X (where X=12). The preseason magazines appear to have drunk the Urban Meyer cool aid and have the Buckeye as the consensus #2 team in the country. So, you would expect that the spreadsheet would predict them to face the preseason #1 team (Alabama) in the national title game, right? Well, no. Actually, the spreadsheet does not even predict the Bucknuts to play in Indy for the Big Ten title. The problem is that there are several other Big Ten teams that are predicted to also be Top 25ish good: Michigan (16), Nebraska (21), Wisconsin (22), Northwestern (28), and Michigan State (29) should all be pretty good, and teams like Penn State (41) and Indiana (56) might be good enough to give teams trouble on the road. So, the predicted standings actually look like this:

Legends Division

Nebraska 6-2 (10-2 overall)

Northwestern 6-2 (10-2)

Michigan State 6-2 (9-3)

Michigan 5-3 (9-3)

Minnesota 1-7 (5-7)

Iowa 1-7 (3-9)

So, Nebraska (21), Northwestern (28), and MSU (29) all finish in the 3-way tie. In this scenario, Nebraska plays both MSU and NU at home and is therefore expected to win both games and thus the tiebreaker to claim the Division crown. Nebraska is predicted to lose at Michigan (16) and at Penn State (41). Northwestern is picked to lose at Wisconsin (22) and at Nebraska, while MSU is picked to lose at Nebraska and at Northwestern. Meanwhile, down in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines are picked to lose close games at MSU (hell yes!), Northwestern, and a very, very close game at Penn State. Even if Michigan were to beat Penn State to force a 4-way tie, Nebraska would still win the tie-breaker. But keep your chin up Michigan fans. My spreadsheet predicts the Wolverines to beat OSU in the last game of the season, a loss which will knock the Buckeyes out of National Title Contention and the Big Ten title game. That win would like also save Brady Hoke’s job and ensure Michigan leapfrogs MSU to get an underserved better bowl game.

Now, let’s take a look at the Leader’s Division

Wisconsin 7-1 (10-2)

Ohio State 6-2 (10-2)

Penn State 5-3 (9-3)

Indiana 4-4 (8-4)

Purdue 1-7 (2-10)

Illinois 0-8 (2-10)

Wisconsin (22) is picked to win the Division by a game and face Nebraska (21) in the Big Ten title game, just like they did in 2012. The Badgers are picked to lose to Ohio State (2) in Columbus on September 28^th, but to run the table after that to finish at 7-1. Taking a closer look at their schedule leads me to believe that this is a very real possibility, and proving once again that Wisconsin is perhaps the luckiest team in the Big Ten. They don’t play Nebraska (21), Michigan (16), or MSU (29), and they draw the next 3 best Big Ten teams (Northwestern (28), Penn State (41), and Indiana (56)) at home. Their other 3 conference road games are against Iowa (61), Illinois (89), and Minnesota (64). Did Bo Ryan draw up this schedule? The Badger’s Charmin soft schedule is one of my major takeaways from this analysis. As for the Buckeyes, they are predicted to lose in Ann Arbor, but the spreadsheet also has them losing at… Northwestern. This brings me to my 2^nd major take away of this analysis for the Big Ten: Northwestern’s ability to play at home will determine the winners of both the Leaders and Legend Division. In this analysis, the Wildcats are predicted to beat OSU, MSU, and Michigan in Evanston. That seems like a tall order, but I will say this: I would not bet against Pat Fitzgerald. To a lesser extent, Penn State is picked to play the role of a spoiler (in beating both Michigan and Nebraska in Happy Valley), but these upsets do not appear to change the overall outcome of the division race. One thing is for sure, however, and that is November is going to be fun in the Legend’s Division. Between November 2^nd and 23^rd, Michigan, MSU, Nebraska, and Northwestern each play each other in what will almost certainly be a round robin blood bath to determine the division champ. Nice!

Oh, I should also mention that in the Big Ten title game, Nebraska would be projected to edge out Wisconsin an earn a bid in the Rose Bowl… just like they were supposed to last year. We will see. In any event, no Big Ten team is projected to finish with fewer than 2 losses, so a Big Ten representative in the National Title game seems unlikely.

OK, let’s move on the rest of the football universe. The ACC has expanded to 14 teams this year by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Apparently having only 12 mediocre football programs was just not enough. Clemson (8) and Florida State (13) are projected to be the two best teams in the conference. Both teams happen to be in the “Atlantic” division of the ACC and this year Clemson hosts FSU. Thus, Clemson is picked to win that game and the Division with a perfect 8-0 record, as their toughest conference road game is at Maryland (52). On the “Coastal” side of the conference, Miami (25), Virginia Tech (31), and Georgia Tech (36) are all predicted to be fairly evenly matched and to finish in a 3-way tie at 6-2. However, Miami draws both teams at home and therefore is expected beat both teams and thus win the tie breaker. In this scenario, Clemson would be picked to beat Miami and claim the ACC crown.

Clemson’s is picked to run the table in the ACC, but their overall fate will be determined by 2 bookend games at the very beginning and end of the season against SEC foes. On August 31^st, the Tigers will host the Bulldogs of Georgia (5) in a game that they are projected to win. However, on November 30^th, Clemson will make the ~2 hour drive to Columbia to face (and I project lose to) the Gamecocks of South Carolina (7). So, I have Clemson finishing the regular season at 11-1

Now, let’s move to the “American Athletic Conference,” otherwise know as the dregs of Big East, or if it were 2003, “Conference USA.” But, the year is 2013 and teams such as Central Florida, Memphis, and Houston are all in a BCS conference now. Congratulations. The only two teams projected in the top 50 in the league are Louisville (12) and Cincinnati (40). Those two teams play late in the season in Cincinnati, a game in which Louisville is projected to win… barely. Due to the overall weakness of the American Conference, Louisville is projected to actually run the table and finish at 12-0. With the Cincinnati win being their best win (unless you consider a road win at Kentucky (81) to be more impressive, which I do not), I still don’t see Louisville finishing in the Top 2 of the final BCS pole, but they would certainly earn their 2^nd straight BCS bid.

Next on my list is the Big XII (where X=8). This year, Oklahoma State (11), Texas (15), Oklahoma (17), and TCU (19) are all predicted to be strong, while Baylor (23) and Kansas State (33) are predicted to be good enough to cause trouble. In this case, the clear scheduling advantage appears to be with Oklahoma State, as they play all the above teams at home, with the exception of Texas. Therefore, the Cowboys are picked to finish at 8-1 in Big 12 play and 11-1 overall, including a non-conference win projected against SEC foe Mississippi State during the first weekend of the season. Texas is project to finish a game behind OSU with loses at TCU and Baylor. If the Longhorns could steal of those 2 games, they would claim the BCS bid by virtue of their predicted win over Oklahoma State in Austin.

As we make our way down the list of BCS conference, we now come to the Pac 12, otherwise known as the only conference that seems to have retained the ability to count. In keeping with recent trends, Stanford (3) and Oregon (4) appear to be the cream of the crop while USC (20), UCLA (24), Oregon State (26), Arizona State (30), and Washington (35) are predicted to be tough. Oregon has to travel to Stanford this year, a game that they are predicted to lose, but the Ducks are otherwise have a manageable road schedule and are picked to run the table and finish at 8-1 in conference play and 11-1 overall. Stanford on the other hand faces tough road games at USC and Oregon State, both of which the Cardinal are projected to drop. So, Oregon is the spreadsheet’s pick to take the Pac 12 North. In the slightly weaker Pac 12 South, USC and Arizona State are projected to finish at 7-2, with Arizona State winning the head to head battle and thus securing a spot in the Pac 12 Title Game. UCLA seems to draw the short schedule straw this year with road games at Stanford, Oregon, USC, and Arizona (45), and therefore the Bruins are not predicted to be a factor in the Pac 12 South. On a neutral site, Oregon would be favored to handle the Sun Devils to claim the Pac 12 crown.

To round out our tour of the BCS conferences, let’s move to everyone’s (and by everyone, I mean ESPN’s) favorite conference: the SEC. In year’s past, the spreadsheet seemed to feel that the overall strength of the SEC would simply cause the good teams to beat up on one another such that no one remained unscathed. Yet, year after year, one team seems to be able to win those tough road games and make it to the National Title game. Ironically, this year the spreadsheet’s prediction is actually a bit more straightforward. Once again, the SEC is predicted to be very strong. Alabama (1), Georgia (5), Texas A&M (6), South Carolina (7), and Florida (9) are all picked to be Top 10 teams, while LSU (14), Mississippi (27), and even Vanderbilt (34) are projected to be strong. So, how does the conference shake out in my simulation?

Well, in the SEC East, the big winner appears to be Georgia. The Bulldogs draw South Carolina and LSU at home and always play Florida at a “neutral” site in Jacksonville. They also have manageable road games at Vandy (34), Tennessee (44), and Auburn (49). Add it all up, and I have Georgia running the table at 8-0. Actually, the main roadblock to a perfect regular season could be the opener at Clemson, which right now looks like their only loss. South Carolina is also picked to finish at 11-1, with their only loss predicted to occur in Athens. As for Florida, the neutral contest versus a slightly better Georgia team and road games at South Carolina, LSU, and a tough non-conference scrap in Miami add up to 4 losses in my book, which is pretty tough to swallow for a top 10 team.

Moving finally to the SEC West, Alabama is picked to be the best team in the country, and this year they have a schedule that seems favorable. The Tide do have to travel to College Station to play Texas A&M this year, a game they are projected to lose. But, they also draw LSU (14) and Mississippi (27) at home. With Auburn (49) and Arkansas (47) being a bit down this year, the West is not quite as intimidating as it sometimes is. So, I project ‘Bama to win the West with a 7-1 record (11-1 overall). As for the Aggies, the spreadsheet picks them to beat Alabama, but to lose tough road games at LSU and Mississippi. LSU seems to have the worst schedule with road games at Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi, all of which I project them to lose.

Coming back to Texas A&M for a moment, the game in which the Aggies travel to Mississippi may the most important game of the SEC schedule and it could, in fact, go a long way in defining the National Title Game participants. If the Aggies do beat the Rebels, they could knock Alabama out of the SEC title game, which could make the final BCS rankings very interesting. It would be hard to justify not including a one-loss Alabama team in the National Title Game and their opponent would likely be whoever wound up winning the SEC title game (Texas A&M or Georgia in my scenario, a game where Georgia would be projected to win by a nose). While this outcome is disgusting to any real college fan north of the Mason-Dixon Line, I see it as a very real possibility. But, for now I will stick to the spreadsheet’s prediction that the Aggies drop two games and finish a game behind Alabama. In this scenario, Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC title game and you then can pretty much pencil them into the National Title game.

How about the rest of the country? Notre Dame (10) exceeded expectations last year, mostly by winning several not-as-tough-as-expected road games at MSU, Oklahoma, and USC. This year I have them finishing at 10-2 with losses at Michigan (16) and at Stanford (3). Home games against MSU (29), Oklahoma (17), and USC (20) could also be tough, but a Top 10 team is expected to win out at home. 10-2 is nice, but it will not be nice enough to make much of an impact in the National Title picture.

In Conference USA (otherwise known at the WAC and Sunbelt refugee camp), Tulsa (43) is projected to be the top dog with a 7-1 conference record and a 10-2 record overall. Tulsa is picked to tie with Rice in the C-USA West at 7-1 but win the tie breaker and move to play (and beat) C-USA East co-champ Marshall. The Thundering Herd are also predicted to finish at 7-1 in a tie with East Carolina in the East. But, none of these teams will be a factor on the National scene.

Moving on to the MAC, the Huskies of Northern Illinois caused BCS chaos last year, and they just might do it again this year. The preseason magazines on average have them ranked 37, which in the MAC is good enough to run the table at 8-0, since no other team is ranked in the top 70. Toledo (79) could test them on the road in late November, but it seems quite likely the Huskies win the MAC West going away. Even more interesting are winnable road games at Iowa (61) and Purdue (85) with could equal an undefeated season at 12-0. Uh oh. In any event, N. Illinois is project to beat the MAC East Champ Bowling Green (7-1 in the MAC, 8-4 overall) in the MAC Title Game.

Next is the Mountain West (aka the WAC family reunion), which has also caught the expansion bug and now contains 12 teams as well. Boise State (18) of the “Mountain” Division and Fresno State (32) of the “West” Division (cute, eh?) should both be solid, but no other team is projected to be in the Top 50. Because of this fact, both teams look poised to win their divisions and face off in the inaugural Mountain West title game. In this game Boise State (at 7-1, 9-3 overall) is predicted to get revenge on Fresno (at 8-0, 12-0) for their only conference loss of the season. In doing so, Fresno will fall from the ranks of the undefeated and out of the running for a BCS at large bid.

For completeness, I should mention that the spreadsheet likes both Louisiana Monroe (82) and Louisiana Lafayette (74) to tie at 6-1 for the Sun Belt title. If anyone cares, Lafayette would claim the tie breaker by virtue of their regular season win over Monroe.

So, with all this said, what does all of this mean for the Bowl Games and National Title Game? Well, based on this simulation, 8 teams will finish the season (post conference title games) with 1 loss or less. Of those 8 teams, 2 are projected to be undefeated: Northern Illinois and Louisville. However, both teams are projected to have ridiculously weak strengths of schedule (number 123 and 107 out of 125, respectively) so I just don’t see either of them sniffing the Top 2 (or maybe not even the Top 10) of the BCS rankings. That is, unless Kentucky (Louisville’s lone power conference opponent) winds up winning the SEC, or either Iowa or Purdue (N. Illinois’s marquise opponents) win the Big Ten. What, you don’t think that will happen?

So, that leaves us with 6 teams with 1 loss: SEC champ Alabama, Pac12 champ Oregon, Big 12 Champ Oklahoma State, ACC champ Clemson, South Carolina, and Fresno State. I think it is a safe bet to assume that Alabama would finish the season #1 and would advance to the National Title Game after beating Georgia in the SEC championship game. But, who would they face? Fresno would have just lost the Mountain West title game to Boise State, so I think that we can safely eliminate them. Clemson faced (and lost to) South Carolina in the final game of the regular season, so I believe they would also be safely eliminated. As for Oklahoma State, they are starting the season ranked the lowest (11) of the other one-loss teams and their lone loss is projected to occur late in the season at Texas. So, I doubt they would wind up in the Top 2 of the final poll. So, we are left with South Carolina and Oregon.

Honestly speaking, this is a tough one. Oregon appears to be higher ranked in the pre-season in every ranking I could find expect one (the Sporting News), so that would naturally play to their advantage. However, Oregon’s main problem is that it is hard to spot any quality wins on their schedule. They are projected to lose to Stanford (3), but their top win is project to be… UCLA (24)? That is just not that impressive. You could even argue that OK State would have better wins (Oklahoma (17), TCU (19), and Baylor (24)). One the other hand, South Carolina’s lone loss would be at Georgia in early September. Furthermore, South Carolina is projected to have two Top 10 wins in November (Florida (9) and Clemson (10)). So, the Gamecocks seem to have a pretty strong argument. In all honesty, if the scenario were to play out this way, I think that South Carolina would be the most deserving team and would likely have the strongest computer rankings. However, I expect that the human voters would not want to see an all SEC Final again. (God knows I don’t want to see that). So, I believe that ultimately Oregon would be the default choice for #2 by the humans judges and would finish #2 in the BCS poll with South Carolina #3 and OK State #4. In this scenario, Alabama would beat Oregon to win the National Title. Swell.

As for the remaining BCS Bowls, here is how I would see that playing out. Based on the results of the conference championships, Nebraska, Clemson, Louisville, and Oklahoma State would all be automatic qualifiers. The Rose Bowl would automatically get Nebraska, the Orange Bowl automatically gets Clemson, and the Fiesta Bowl automatically gets Oklahoma State. After that, the bowls get to start picking Bowl participants in much the same way that middle-schoolers get to select their peers for a rousing game of dodge ball, with a few rules in place. South Carolina would become an automatic BCS qualifier by finishing #3 in the final poll. Notre Dame at 10-2 would be right around #8 in the BCS poll (which would earn them an automatic bid). I would be shocked if no Bowl picked them up (and their legions of traveling fans) even if they finished lower than that. I believe the only remaining question is if an undefeated Northern Illinois team would finish in the BCS top 12 or in the Top 16 and ahead of undefeated Louisville or Nebraska. My gut feeling is that yes, they would, and by virtue of this rule also nab an automatic bid. So, that would work out to 9 of the 10 slots being filled by automatic qualifiers and the Bowls have their option of several at large teams including Ohio State, Stanford, Florida State, and Texas as the most likely options

First up is the Sugar Bowl, which gets to select a replacement for the SEC champ Alabama. I would guess that in order to keep the SEC connection, the Sugar Bowl would select South Carolina. This would shut out the rest of the SEC. The Rose bowl would then get to pick a replacement for Oregon. The obvious choice would be to select Stanford to keep the Pac-12 tie. However, I have a feeling that the Rose Bowl people might see a Notre Dame team in the pool and decide they wanted them and their fans a bit more.

This year, the Orange gets the first pick among the remaining bowls. In looking at the pool of remaining teams, the Orange Bowl will likely avoid picking Louisville or Northern Illinois, and will instead go after an at large team. They essentially can’t select Florida State since that would match up 2 ACC teams, so I believe that the most attractive options would be either Stanford or Ohio State, and I think the Ohio State would clearly get the nod. Next up is the Sugar bowl, which now has the delightful option of picking up one of the two remaining automatic qualifiers in Louisville or Northern Illinois. Louisville played in the sugar bowl last year, so I doubt that they would pick them a second year in a row (unless they REALLY don’t want Northern Illinois). So, I predict Northern Illinois would wind up in New Orleans, leaving Louisville to the Fiesta Bowl.

So, in summary, the spreadsheet (with a little help from me) projects the following BCS bowl match-ups and outcomes:

BCS Title Game: Alabama (1) over Oregon (4)

Rose Bowl: Notre Dame (10) over Nebraska (21)

Sugar Bowl: South Carolina (7) over Northern Illinois (37)

Orange Bowl: Ohio State (2) over Clemson (8)

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (11) over Louisville (12)

So, that about wraps it up! I guess time will only tell how the actual season will play out. As we wait for Labor Day weekend to arrive, here are my picks for some of the key games throughout the season that will (in my mind) have the biggest impact on the season:

08/31 Georgia at Clemson

08/31 Northern Illinois at Iowa

09/07 Notre Dame at Michigan

09/07 South Carolina at Georgia

09/14 Alabama at Texas A&M

10/05 Ohio State at Northwestern

10/12 Texas A&M at Mississippi

10/19 Florida State at Clemson

11/09 Oregon at Stanford

10/26 Stanford at Oregon State

(any game in November featuring any combination of Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska, and Northwestern)

11/30 Clemson at South Carolina

11/30 Ohio State at Michigan

11/30 Notre Dame at Stanford

12/07 Texas at Baylor

12/07 Louisville at Cincinnati

Enjoy!

(Short version for Spartan Magazine)

I have posted here from time to time about the spreadsheet and algorithm that I have developed over the years to project point spreads and power rankings for all 125 FBS teams. As I have done for the last few years, I have taken the consensus rakings for all 125 teams, generated projected power rankings, and simulated the full season correcting for home field advantage. I thought I would post my main observations for the 2013 season, based on my simulation.

1) The Big Ten Legends Division could be a real blood bath, but Nebraska appears to have a slight schedule edge. Basically, the 4 top teams in the division are all very similar in their consensus preseason ranking (the average of all the preseason rankings I could find) with Michigan at 16, Nebraska at 21, Northwestern at 28, and Michigan State at 29. Nebraska and Northwestern both get 2 of the other 3 teams at home, and head to head, Nebraska gets Northwestern at home. Advantage Huskers. Michigan is actually at a slight disadvantage as I see them with more “losable” road games (@ MSU, @ Penn State, and @ NW) than the other 3 teams.

2) The road to both Big Ten Division crowns may go through Evanston. The Wildcats host Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State this year. If Northwestern plays like a borderline Top 25 team, they could conceivably win all 3 of those games. (It may sound crazy, but I for one will not bet against Pat Fitzgerald). If NW is good and tough at home, beating or not beating Northwestern in Evanston will decide which of those 3 teams is still standing at the end of November. Actually, I believe the Northwestern – Ohio State game is one of the under the radar most important games of the year. This is in large part because:

3) Wisconsin’s (preseason #22) schedule is Charmin soft. They have to travel to Columbus on September 28^th (where you would expect them to lose) but after that, it is pretty weak. They don’t play Nebraska (preseason #21), Michigan (16), or MSU (29), and they draw the next 3 best Big Ten teams [Northwestern (28), Penn State (41), and Indiana (56)] at home. Their other 3 conference road games are against Iowa (61), Illinois (89), and Minnesota (64). Weak sauce. If Michigan is a legit Top 20 team, you would think it is likely that they will beat OSU (the consensus #2 team nationally) in Ann Arbor. If this is true, Ohio State’s next toughest game is likely the road game at Northwestern on October 5th, which is also the Buckeye’s 6^th game in a row and Northwestern’s first game after a bye. A loss here could effectively send Wisconsin to the Big Ten Championship game and knock OSU out of the National Title hunt.

4) In the SEC West, Alabama has the preseason ranking (1) and schedule to win the National Title. But, there could be a snag. The Tide do have to travel to College Station to play Texas A&M (6) this year, a game they could certainly lose. But, they also draw LSU (14) and Mississippi (27) at home so they are not likely to finish below 11-1. With Auburn (49) and Arkansas (47) being a bit down this year, the SEC West is not quite as intimidating as it sometimes is. Texas A&M could be in the driver’s seat if they can beat Alabama and survive road tests at LSU (14) or Mississippi (27). If this happens, I think Alabama would play the winner of the SEC title game for the National Title. In this regard, the A&M – Ole Miss game (which A&M does get right after a bye) is another under-the-radar important game. My spreadsheet suggests A&M will slip up, and Alabama will win the SEC title game and finish the season #1 in the final BCS Poll.

5) In the SEC East, Georgia (5) has the clear schedule advantage, and could go 8-0. The Bulldogs draw South Carolina (7) and LSU (14) at home and always play Florida (9) at a “neutral” site in Jacksonville. They also have manageable road games at Vandy (34), Tennessee (44), and Auburn (49). South Carolina also has a very manageable schedule meaning the UGA-USC game in Athens on September 7^th will likely determine the Division champ. Ironically, the team that finishes 2^nd in the East Division (most likely South Carolina) might have the best shot at the 2^nd BCS bid from the SEC.

6) In the ACC, Clemson (8) and Florida State (13) are projected to be the two best teams in the conference, but Clemson hosts FSU this year and thus I predict the Tigers to win that game and the Division and ACC championship game (over Miami) with a perfect 9-0 conference record. Their next toughest conference game appears to be at Maryland (52). Clemson also have non-conference games vs. Georgia (on August 31^st) and at South Carolina (on November 30^th) which both have major National Title implications.

7) In the Big 12, Oklahoma State (11) has a clear schedule advantage as they play 4 of the top 5 conference opponents at home [Oklahoma (17), TCU (19), Baylor (23), and Kansas State (33)]. Their lone tough road game is at Texas (15), which they seem likely to drop, but I project the Cowboys to finish at 8-1 in Big 12 play. Texas could nab the Big 12 title with the aforementioned win over OK State and a tough road win over either TCU (19) or Baylor (23).

8) In the Pac 12, Oregon (4) appears to have the edge, but their strength of schedule could cost them. The Duck have to travel to Stanford (3) (where a loss is certainly possible, if not likely), but their next toughest game is likely at Washington (35). So, I think 11-1 is quite reasonable. Stanford may beat Oregon, but would need to survive tougher road tests at either Oregon State (26) or USC (20) to keep Oregon out of the Pac 12 title game. The problem is that if the Ducks do lose to Stanford and otherwise run the table, they have no marquise win (maybe UCLA (24)?) and may have trouble getting to #2 in the BCS poll. In the Pac 12 South, I see Arizona State emerging at 7-2 and winning the head-to-head tie-breaker with USC. Although the margin is slim, my spreadsheet projects Stanford to slip up and Oregon to win the Pac 12 and edge out South Carolina for the #2 BCS slot.

9) Louisville (12), Northern Illinois (37), and Fresno State (32) all have schedules to go 12-0 in the regular season. Fresno is projected to lose to Boise State (18) in the inaugural Mountain West title game, and Louisville will be tested on the road at Cincinnati (40) on December 7^th. Northern Illinois’s toughest game may be the very winnable opener at Iowa (61). I foresee both Louisville and Northern Illinois joining the BCS party again this year.

10) Notre Dame (10) has the schedule to finish around 10-2 (with losses projected at Michigan (16) and at Stanford (3)) which should be good enough to earn at at-large BCS bid. If either Oregon or Stanford makes the National Title game, I think the Rose Bowl could lure the Irish to Pasadena.

Add it all up and my spreadsheet projects the following BCS scenario: