Statistical Analysis of the 2014 Rose Bowl (MSU vs. Stanford)

Stat Geek Analysis of MSU vs. Stanford

I will be the first to admit that I am not world’s best X’s and O’s guy.  But, I am good at math, so I thought that I would take a look at the stat match-up between MSU and Stanford, including looking at each team’s opponents and see what it looks like.  I was able to pull rushing and passing data for all Div. 1 teams from the NCAA website and analyze it.  I general broke down four main statistical areas: rush offense, pass offense, rush defense, and pass defense (all on a yards per attempt basis to normalize for style of play as much as possible).

Here is the synopsis:  In general, Stanford is the most balanced team MSU have faced all year, finishing no worse than 31^st in any category, but it is not clear that they are better than OSU.  Statically, Stanford is roughly equivalent to Indiana on offense and Iowa on defense.  As for MSU, statistically, we are actually one of the worst offenses they have faced all year (yet we are not so different than the Utah team that beat Stanford), but we are also, by far, the best defense they have seen all year (much better than Utah or USC), especially in the run game.  As for the level of competition, Stanford has faced a better set of passing teams than has MSU.  Other than that, the competition when it comes to rushing offense and both types of defense, their schedules are pretty much a dead heat.

Ok, the rest of this is going to get pretty detailed and rambling.  Keep reading if you dare. 

Still with me?  Ok, Stanford is known for to be a great defensive team and a great running team, but the overall stats tell a slightly different story. In the four main statistical areas, Stanford’s rushing attach is actually the lowest ranked at 31^st in the country at 5.00 yards per attempt, while their passing offense is better than I expected with a ranking of 11 in the country at 8.97 yd / attempt.  Statically, that is the best passing attack that MSU has faced all year (UofM is #2 incidentally, ranked #20 at 8.47 yd /att).  By contrast, both Indiana (#19) and OSU (#1) have better rushing attacks than Stanford.  Stanford’s running statistics are most similar to Nebraska (#34 at 4.92 yd/att).  Overall, Stanford gains 6.39 yd/per offensive play (passing and rushing combined), good enough for #12 in the country.  By contrast, MSU has beaten 2 teams with better overall offenses in Ohio State (#5 overall at 7.24 yd/att) and Indiana (#18 overall at 6.58 yd/att).  As we all know, those teams scored 24 and 28 points against MSU respectively.  Stanford has actually failed to score 28 points in 6 of their 13 games, which seems a bit odd for such as high powered offense, statistically. 

Focusing more on Stanford’s defense, they are certainly statistically very good against both the run and the pass.  Overall defensively they rank #12 (6.39 td/att), they are #16 against the pass (5.71 yd/att), and they are #4 against the run (2.97 yd/att).  That, of course is very good, but MSU practices against a better defense every day. For comparison, MSU is #1 in rush D at 2.7 yd/att, #2 in pass D at 5.06 yd/att, and #1 overall at 3.94 yd/att.  Stanford’s defense is very good, but statistically overall, they are not as good as Iowa (#8 against the pass, #19 against the run, and #8 overall).  Although their rush defense is statistically the best MSU has faced this year.  By comparison OSU is #7 against the run at 3.1 yd/att.  Interestingly, Stanford has not given up more than 28 points all year, but they also have never given up less than 10. 

Now, the concern lies with MSU’s offense. Again, based on statistics, MSU’s offense is rather underwhelming at 85^th nationally on a yard per attempt basis.  The breakdown is 6.68 yd/att on passes (#86), 4.43 yd/att on runs (#57), and 5.39 yd/att overall (85^th).  (Granted, we all know that MSU’s offense has improved greatly since September, but I can’t in good faith remove those games from the calculations.  I would then have to perform a similar analysis on other teams, and I just don’t know an unbiased way to do that.)  Interestingly, when Stanford faces other teams with “bad offenses” they didn’t really do all that well.  They have played four other teams with total offenses outside of the Top 50. Utah (#73) of course beat Stanford and did it while rushing for 176 yd (4.5 yd/att) and passing for 234 yd (6.9 yd/att).  Washington State (#74) threw for 322 yds against Stanford while California (#96) threw for 310 yds.  Army (#75) went the other way and ran for 284 yds.  WSU, Cal, and Army have horrid defenses, so they all got blown out, but there are yards to be had on Stanford’s defense, even from “weak” offenses.

Now, what about the competition? “Conventional wisdom” from places like ESPN suggests that Stanford has been playing NFL competition every week while MSU has been playing Pop Warner Midwest teams.  Well, from the point of view of pass offense, there is a bit of a difference.  9 of Stanford’s 13 games have been played against Top 40 passing teams in the pass happy Pac-12: Oregon (5), San Jose St (16), Washington (21), UCLA (22), USC (30), Notre Dame (33), Oregon St. (36), and ASU twice (38).  Only five of MSU’s opponents rank in the Top 50 in passing: Michigan (20), Notre Dame (33), Indiana (34), Illinois (45), and Ohio State (46).  So, Stanford does have more experience with “high powered” pass attacks.  That being said, MSU held 10 of 12 Div 1 opponents under 6.5 yd / att through the air, while Stanford only held 6 of 13 opponents under this metric.  Furthermore, Michigan was the only opponent of MSU’s to gain over 7 yards per pass (7.2), while Cal (8.9 yd/att), USC (7.8), Oregon (7.4) and Washington (7.3) all surpassed this measure against Stanford.

How about rushing? If we compare MSU and Stanford’s opponents in this stat, the results are basically a dead heat.  Both teams faced 3 teams in the Top 40, and 5 teams in the Bottom 40.  MSU faced #1 OSU, and Stanford faced #5 Oregon.  So, there is no justification in saying either team faced tougher or weaker competition against the run.  As stated above, MSU has the best rush defense in the country, but Stanford was actually a little more consistent in this area.  MSU kept all its opponents except two under 3.5 yd/att.  Those two exceptions were OSU (6.8 yd/att) and Nebraska (5.7 yd/att).  Stanford’s worst two outings were against Army (4.7 yd/att) and Utah (4.5 yd/att).

Turning to the defense, the pass defenses faced by both teams are also rather similar, with perhaps a slight edge to Stanford.  Both teams faced five Top 50 pass defenses and four Bottom 40 pass defenses.  The difference lies in the that Stanford faced 3 Top 15 pass defenses in Oregon (5), Washington (7), and USC (13), while MSU only faced one (Iowa at 8).  Against good pass D, Stanford was a bit hot and cold.  They struggled against Washington (5.0 yd/att) and USC (5.1 yd/att), but did quite well per attempt against Oregon (7.9 yd/att  but only for 103 yards), Notre Dame (8.8 yd/att, but only 158 yards) and UCLA (9.1 yd/att for 227 yards).  Against Top 50 pass defenses MSU did OK against Michigan and Ohio State (7.6 yd/att in both games), but struggled against Iowa (6.3 yd/att), ND (3.8), and Western Michigan (3.1 yd/att) early in the year.

Finally, when it comes to rush defense, again both teams seemed to face rather similar competition, but in this case MSU seems to have the slight edge.  Both teams faced six teams in the Top 60 and five teams in the Bottom 40.  In this case, though MSU faced two Top 20 rushing Ds (OSU at 7 and Iowa at 19), while Stanford’s toughest run test was Utah (#20).  That being said, Stanford did run the ball well against just about everyone, gaining over 4.7 yd/att 10 times in 13 games, while MSU only pulled this off 3 times against the rather poor rushing defenses of Minnesota, Indiana, and Illinois.

Add it all up and what does it mean?  Stanford runs the ball consistently well, but not as well as several teams MSU has faced.  MSU’s run D is tough and should handle the challenge.  Stanford’s pass offense is better, but has sputtered against the better pass defenses it’s faced.  MSU’s defense should limit Stanford’s offense in both phases.  MSU’s run offense is respectable, but Stanford’s rush defense is stout and consistent.  If MSU does better than around 3.5 yards / attempt, it will be a good outing.  Once again, the key, I believe will be MSU’s improving pass game against the good, but erratic Stanford pass defense.  Cook and co. have done well against good pass defenses.  If they can have a respectable outing once again, I think it will be enough to carry the day… statically speaking.