For the past 2 Bowl games, I decided that it would be a fun exercise to pull the NCAA rushing and passing stats as well as the individual box score data for both MSU and their bowl opponents to try to get a better feel for relative strengths and weaknesses of each team. My analysis of the Cotton Bowl National Semifinal is shown below. Please note that all rankings are the rankings based on yards per attempt for the relevant category. Enjoy!
Alabama Rush Offense (#36) vs. MSU Rush Defense (#23)
Alabama’s rush offense, statistically, is surprisingly average. MSU has already played and beaten 5 teams with better numbers (#2 Oregon, #9 Ohio State, #12 Air Force, #13 Maryland, and believe it or not, #35 Western Michigan). More encouragingly, MSU’s rush defense has done pretty well against these high-powered rushing attacks. Against 5 of the top 6 rushing attacks that MSU has faced, MSU’s defense is giving up less than 2.5 yds per carry. The outlier is the Air Force game where MSU gave up 279 yards and 5.5 yds/carry, but that was clearly an unusual situation based on Air Force’s system. MSUs overall rushing defense stats are a bit skewed by oddly poor performances against #50 Nebraska, #105 Purdue, #84 Penn State, and #72 Rutgers, none of whom have a great rushing attack. On the other hand, Alabama has actually gone up against several strong rush defenses including #4 Wisconsin,#12 Florida, #14 Ole Miss, and #35 Arkansas. In general, though, the performance has been a mixed bag. Most notable was that Bama destroyed Wisconsin’s rush defense (6.4 yd/att) and they also did quite well against Ole Miss (5.1 yd/att). However, Florida and Arkansas held them to about 4.0 yd/carry or less, as did #64 ULM and #66 Tennessee, and they don’t even have great rush defenses. But, the Tide did manage to Roll up huge numbers against the three worst rush defenses that they faced: #70 Mississippi State, #88 Auburn, and #99 Texas A&M. Could MSU have an edge here, even with the Heisman Trophy winner in the backfield?
Alabama Pass Offense (#71) vs. MSU Pass Defense (#75)
This should come as no surprise to anyone, but MSU’s pass defense is not great this year. The good news is neither is Alabama’s pass offense. If there was ever a true battle of weakness vs. weakness, this is the match-up. The analysis of the individual box scores also tells an interesting tale. MSU is surprisingly consistent. Basically, good passing teams put up pretty big numbers on our secondary (per attempt) and bad passing teams do not. MSU has given up a respectable 4.5 to 6.5 yd/att against teams with passing attacks that are statistically similar to Alabama’s (#80 Penn State, #116 Purdue, and #120 Maryland). That is the good news. The bad news is that Bama is all over the map with their passing game. Oddly, 3 of their best 5 outings through the air have been against the Top 3 passing defenses that they faced (#4 Wisconsin, #10 Florida, and #11 Georgia) where they averaged 9.3 yd/att, yet all three of those teams usually give up less than 6 yd/att. Bama only averages 6.5 yd/att in their other 9 division one games. So, which team is the real Alabama? That is perhaps the biggest question mark.
MSU Rush Offense (#94) vs. Alabama Rush Defense (#1)
On paper, this is a very, very bad match-up for MSU. MSU is averaging less than 4 yd/att while Bama is giving up only 2.38 yd/att. That it actually quite a bit better than the ~2.7 yd/att that MSU’s defense was giving up on the ground during the Rose Bowl year when MSU had the #1 rush defense. Scary. Furthermore, Bama is getting it done against basically everyone. Only two teams rushed for more than 100 yards against them and averaged more than 3 yd/att: #42 Tennessee (132 yd, 3.4 yd/att) and #18 Georgia (193 yd, 5.1 yd/att). Now, those two teams both have good rushing attacks, but so does #24 Ole Miss, #5 LSU, and #31 Arkansas, and they all got shut down to the tune of 2.9 yd/att, 2.1, and 1.8. Meanwhile, MSU has struggled to clear 4 yd/att against even some bad rush defenses (like #101 Indiana and #107 Rutgers). Now, we all know about the injury situation on the O-line, and MSU did manage ~5 yd/att against both OSU and PSU, so that bodes well, or at least better. In any event, if MSU can somehow manage to clear 100 yards against these guys, I would consider it a major, major step towards winning.
MSU Pass Offense (#41) vs. Alabama Pass Defense (#13)
This match-up is pretty intriguing. MSU’s is a pretty good passing team and on paper Alabama has pretty good pass defense. But, for both units, their performance seems to be a bit erratic based on the competition. For example, MSU did very well through the air against #1 UofM (8.4 yd/att) and #16 PSU (9.2 yd/att) who both have Top 20 pass defenses. But, MSU did not do as well #8 OSU and #19 Iowa (both around 5.8 yd/att), but that may just be a function of Cook’s shoulder health. Then again the numbers look shaky against #70 Oregon, #85 Purdue, and #92 Indiana, but strong against #68 Air Force, #84 Western, and #86 Nebraska. In any event, MSU certainly has been tested, as we have already faced five Top 30 pass defenses, including #1 Michigan and #8 OSU. Somewhat similarly, Alabama is a bit all over the map. In contrast, however, they have faced only two Top 30 passing attacks: #10 Arkansas, and #19 Ole Miss. Ole Miss actually lit up that secondary to the tune of 341 total yards and 10.3 yd/play. Mississippi State (#31 is passing) also cleared 300 yards and 6.8 yd/att. But, Bama did do a good job with #10 Arkansas (only 5.5 yd/att) and #34 Middle Tenn State (4.4 yd/att). As for the rest of their schedule, as I said, it is a mixed bag. They dominated #53 Georgia (3.4 yd/att) and #74 Wisconsin (5.8 yd/att), but gave up significant yards to #61 Auburn (7.4 yd/att ) and #75 Tennessee (7.8 yd/att).
Add it all up, this is how I see things: MSU will likely struggle to run the ball, but I think Bama will as well. That means that the game will most likely be decided through the air. If Cook is healthy (and stays that way, i.e. the pass protection is good), I like this match-up. MSU’s secondary is coming together and I think Bama’s looks a bit untested. Of course, big plays, turnovers, and special teams will certainly be a factor, but I think MSU can make enough plays to wind up with more points after 60 minutes. Hopefully, Urban Meyer will be kind enough to send Uncle Nick the number of the closest Papa John’s in Dallas.
Alabama Rush Offense (#36) vs. MSU Rush Defense (#23)
Alabama’s rush offense, statistically, is surprisingly average. MSU has already played and beaten 5 teams with better numbers (#2 Oregon, #9 Ohio State, #12 Air Force, #13 Maryland, and believe it or not, #35 Western Michigan). More encouragingly, MSU’s rush defense has done pretty well against these high-powered rushing attacks. Against 5 of the top 6 rushing attacks that MSU has faced, MSU’s defense is giving up less than 2.5 yds per carry. The outlier is the Air Force game where MSU gave up 279 yards and 5.5 yds/carry, but that was clearly an unusual situation based on Air Force’s system. MSUs overall rushing defense stats are a bit skewed by oddly poor performances against #50 Nebraska, #105 Purdue, #84 Penn State, and #72 Rutgers, none of whom have a great rushing attack. On the other hand, Alabama has actually gone up against several strong rush defenses including #4 Wisconsin,#12 Florida, #14 Ole Miss, and #35 Arkansas. In general, though, the performance has been a mixed bag. Most notable was that Bama destroyed Wisconsin’s rush defense (6.4 yd/att) and they also did quite well against Ole Miss (5.1 yd/att). However, Florida and Arkansas held them to about 4.0 yd/carry or less, as did #64 ULM and #66 Tennessee, and they don’t even have great rush defenses. But, the Tide did manage to Roll up huge numbers against the three worst rush defenses that they faced: #70 Mississippi State, #88 Auburn, and #99 Texas A&M. Could MSU have an edge here, even with the Heisman Trophy winner in the backfield?
Alabama Pass Offense (#71) vs. MSU Pass Defense (#75)
This should come as no surprise to anyone, but MSU’s pass defense is not great this year. The good news is neither is Alabama’s pass offense. If there was ever a true battle of weakness vs. weakness, this is the match-up. The analysis of the individual box scores also tells an interesting tale. MSU is surprisingly consistent. Basically, good passing teams put up pretty big numbers on our secondary (per attempt) and bad passing teams do not. MSU has given up a respectable 4.5 to 6.5 yd/att against teams with passing attacks that are statistically similar to Alabama’s (#80 Penn State, #116 Purdue, and #120 Maryland). That is the good news. The bad news is that Bama is all over the map with their passing game. Oddly, 3 of their best 5 outings through the air have been against the Top 3 passing defenses that they faced (#4 Wisconsin, #10 Florida, and #11 Georgia) where they averaged 9.3 yd/att, yet all three of those teams usually give up less than 6 yd/att. Bama only averages 6.5 yd/att in their other 9 division one games. So, which team is the real Alabama? That is perhaps the biggest question mark.
MSU Rush Offense (#94) vs. Alabama Rush Defense (#1)
On paper, this is a very, very bad match-up for MSU. MSU is averaging less than 4 yd/att while Bama is giving up only 2.38 yd/att. That it actually quite a bit better than the ~2.7 yd/att that MSU’s defense was giving up on the ground during the Rose Bowl year when MSU had the #1 rush defense. Scary. Furthermore, Bama is getting it done against basically everyone. Only two teams rushed for more than 100 yards against them and averaged more than 3 yd/att: #42 Tennessee (132 yd, 3.4 yd/att) and #18 Georgia (193 yd, 5.1 yd/att). Now, those two teams both have good rushing attacks, but so does #24 Ole Miss, #5 LSU, and #31 Arkansas, and they all got shut down to the tune of 2.9 yd/att, 2.1, and 1.8. Meanwhile, MSU has struggled to clear 4 yd/att against even some bad rush defenses (like #101 Indiana and #107 Rutgers). Now, we all know about the injury situation on the O-line, and MSU did manage ~5 yd/att against both OSU and PSU, so that bodes well, or at least better. In any event, if MSU can somehow manage to clear 100 yards against these guys, I would consider it a major, major step towards winning.
MSU Pass Offense (#41) vs. Alabama Pass Defense (#13)
This match-up is pretty intriguing. MSU’s is a pretty good passing team and on paper Alabama has pretty good pass defense. But, for both units, their performance seems to be a bit erratic based on the competition. For example, MSU did very well through the air against #1 UofM (8.4 yd/att) and #16 PSU (9.2 yd/att) who both have Top 20 pass defenses. But, MSU did not do as well #8 OSU and #19 Iowa (both around 5.8 yd/att), but that may just be a function of Cook’s shoulder health. Then again the numbers look shaky against #70 Oregon, #85 Purdue, and #92 Indiana, but strong against #68 Air Force, #84 Western, and #86 Nebraska. In any event, MSU certainly has been tested, as we have already faced five Top 30 pass defenses, including #1 Michigan and #8 OSU. Somewhat similarly, Alabama is a bit all over the map. In contrast, however, they have faced only two Top 30 passing attacks: #10 Arkansas, and #19 Ole Miss. Ole Miss actually lit up that secondary to the tune of 341 total yards and 10.3 yd/play. Mississippi State (#31 is passing) also cleared 300 yards and 6.8 yd/att. But, Bama did do a good job with #10 Arkansas (only 5.5 yd/att) and #34 Middle Tenn State (4.4 yd/att). As for the rest of their schedule, as I said, it is a mixed bag. They dominated #53 Georgia (3.4 yd/att) and #74 Wisconsin (5.8 yd/att), but gave up significant yards to #61 Auburn (7.4 yd/att ) and #75 Tennessee (7.8 yd/att).
Add it all up, this is how I see things: MSU will likely struggle to run the ball, but I think Bama will as well. That means that the game will most likely be decided through the air. If Cook is healthy (and stays that way, i.e. the pass protection is good), I like this match-up. MSU’s secondary is coming together and I think Bama’s looks a bit untested. Of course, big plays, turnovers, and special teams will certainly be a factor, but I think MSU can make enough plays to wind up with more points after 60 minutes. Hopefully, Urban Meyer will be kind enough to send Uncle Nick the number of the closest Papa John’s in Dallas.
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