Happy return of college football! As you may have noticed, I have a lot of thoughts on college football, many of which are bolstered by my spreadsheet simulation / power rankings. Time permitting, I decided that I will use this little corner of the internet to expand on those thoughts. As for MSU, it has been a very long off season for the Spartans, and I think we are all ready to see them take the field this weekend. I don’t know much about BGSU, but I think we can all agree that one of three things will happen: 1) MSU loses and the ESPN post about us being the most miserable fan base will actually come to pass. 2) MSU wins, but not very convincingly, and we will flash back to last year and start to wonder how rare the next win will be or 3) MSU wins big and we will simply write it off the BGSU is just a bad MAC team. So, I recommend bringing an extra 6-pack to your tailgate, because you are pretty much going to need it. For now, let’s take a quick spin around the country:
Big Ten
As I look around the Big Ten this week, there is honestly not a lot of compelling action. Outside of the Michigan (-5) scuffle against the Gators in Dallas, there is only one other game with a spread under 10, and that is Ball State at Illinois (-8.5). But, I suppose that Wyoming at Iowa (-13.5) could get interesting, as could Arkansas State at Nebraska (-16.5) and maybe even Maryland (+16.5) at Texas. Of course, Thursday night’s Big Ten opener featuring Ohio State (-21) at Indiana will be notable for in being a conference game in freaking August, and I am sure that the game will be tied for at least a few seconds, but other that, I don’t expect much drama. (Hear that MSU, NO DRAMA!!!). The rest of the match-ups all have a spread that opened at 20 points or more. Unfortunately for Purdue (+26.5) and Rutgers (+31) their games against Louisville and Washington are also not predicted to be close, but for the opposite reasons. Somebody should really tell their ADs that early September is a time to try to rack up easy wins and not embarrassing loses.
SEC
In contrast to the Big Ten, the SEC features lots of must see TV this weekend, which makes a little sense considering the SEC tends to prefer to schedule cupcakes in mid-November and therefore need to play more or less real games even in Week 1. The national game of the week in Week 1 is clearly Alabama (-7.5) vs. Florida State where the winner will get the early edge in playoff speculation (when in reality both teams’ fates will be decided in November). Although the SEC is favored to win this match-up, there are no fewer than 5 other games involving SEC teams this weekend where the spread is below 6 points. The Florida – Michigan (-5) match-up was mentioned above, and both South Carolina (+4.5) and Texas A&M (+3) are underdogs to NC State and UCLA respectively. Tennessee (-3) is a narrow favorite over Georgia Tech, as is Vandy (-5.5) over Middle Tennessee State. If these games go chalk, the SEC would be sitting at 3-3 in marquee games after Week 1, which would be a rather pedestrian way for the “best conference in the nation” to perform right out of the gate. Furthermore, Kentucky (-10) is not exactly an overwhelming favorite at Southern Miss, and both Georgia (-13.5) and LSU (-12.5) have surprising tight spreads against Appalachian State and BYU, respectively. Things could get real interesting down south this weekend.
ACC
In many ways, the ACC had a breakout year last year, scoring several victories over SEC opponents, culminating, of course, with the last second win over Alabama in the National Title game by the Clemson Tigers. As mentioned above, the ACC will get 3 cracks at SEC teams in Week 1, even if NC State is the only team who is favored. Fortunately, VA Tech (-4.5) and UNC (-12.5) are both favored in the other conference games of note versus West Virginia and Cal, respectively. Week 1 should be an early indicator if the ACC’s performance last year was a fluke or not. As for close games, Boston College (-1.5) travels to Northern Illinois, which is really just a nice chance for the MAC to get a good win.
Pac 12
Other than the aforementioned UCLA (-3) / Texas A&M match-up, the only real other game of note is the interstate battle between Colorado (-7) and Colorado State. While the Buffs will try to prove that last year was not a fluke, the Rams will try to prove that last week was not a fluke. In future-MSU-opponent news, a PJ Fleck-less Western Michigan squad will travel to LA to face USC (-23.5). Good luck with that, Broncos!
Big 12
Last year, I summarized the Power 5 conference (after the Big Ten) in alphabetic order, but I decided this year to put the Big 12 last and close to the Group of 5 since that seems… appropriate. Sure enough, in Week 1 the Big 12 did not disappoint by essentially having nothing to discuss. Only 4 teams are actually facing another Division 1 opponent, and other than the previously mentioned WVU (+4.5) / VA Tech game and the Texas (-16.5) / Maryland game, the only other game of note is the sneaky-tricky game featuring OK State as only a 16.5-point favor over Tulsa. Do we need to issue an early upset alert? Hmmmmm.
Group of Five and Notre Dame
The main purpose of this section is usually to comment on the impact that ND and the Group of 5 teams on the eventual NY6 Bowl picks, including the playoff games. The Irish open as modest 15-point favorites over Temple. Much like the Spartans, no one will really know if the Irish are “back” until a little later in the schedule. That said, for both teams, a loss in Week 1 would send a clear signal of “not yet back.” As for the Group of 5, the early team to watch this year is the South Florida Bulls. In “Week Zero” the Bulls opened with a respectable win at San Jose St, but this Week they face the non-Div 1 squad from Stony Brook. If any other Group of Five team were to make news this week, it would be a major surprise.
Spreadsheet Picks
Every week, I take a look at my spreadsheet algorithm’ in-season picks for each game. Considering the general lack of data everyone has at this point (which is pretty much limited to just information from preseason magazines) the picks are not that interesting. It only suggests one upset: Miami (OH) [+1] over Marshall, which is incidentally the only upset pick ESPN’s FPI makes. The full comparison of my algorithm to the opening Vegas spread is shown here:
For what it is worth, it also like 5 teams to cover (Clemson [not shown], Penn State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, and Georgia). Finally, I decided to try something fun this year and that is to set up a simple random number generator to also make upset picks. Since the Vegas spreads are highly correlated to a probability of victory (for example a 7-point favorite historically wins 70% of the time), it is simple enough to use random numbers to “simulate” all games in the week. That math tells me to expect 6.4 ± 2.2 upsets in Week 1. I then continued to pick a set of random numbers until I got a scenario with the correct number of average upsets (6) and it gave me the following picks:
South Carolina (+4.5) over NC State
Ball State (+8.5) over Illinois
Tulsa (+16.5) over OK State
Texas A&M (+3) over UCLA
Florida State (+7.5) over Alabama
Florida (+5) over Michigan.
Don't blame me, Michigan fans... blame MATH!
Enjoy!
Big Ten
As I look around the Big Ten this week, there is honestly not a lot of compelling action. Outside of the Michigan (-5) scuffle against the Gators in Dallas, there is only one other game with a spread under 10, and that is Ball State at Illinois (-8.5). But, I suppose that Wyoming at Iowa (-13.5) could get interesting, as could Arkansas State at Nebraska (-16.5) and maybe even Maryland (+16.5) at Texas. Of course, Thursday night’s Big Ten opener featuring Ohio State (-21) at Indiana will be notable for in being a conference game in freaking August, and I am sure that the game will be tied for at least a few seconds, but other that, I don’t expect much drama. (Hear that MSU, NO DRAMA!!!). The rest of the match-ups all have a spread that opened at 20 points or more. Unfortunately for Purdue (+26.5) and Rutgers (+31) their games against Louisville and Washington are also not predicted to be close, but for the opposite reasons. Somebody should really tell their ADs that early September is a time to try to rack up easy wins and not embarrassing loses.
SEC
In contrast to the Big Ten, the SEC features lots of must see TV this weekend, which makes a little sense considering the SEC tends to prefer to schedule cupcakes in mid-November and therefore need to play more or less real games even in Week 1. The national game of the week in Week 1 is clearly Alabama (-7.5) vs. Florida State where the winner will get the early edge in playoff speculation (when in reality both teams’ fates will be decided in November). Although the SEC is favored to win this match-up, there are no fewer than 5 other games involving SEC teams this weekend where the spread is below 6 points. The Florida – Michigan (-5) match-up was mentioned above, and both South Carolina (+4.5) and Texas A&M (+3) are underdogs to NC State and UCLA respectively. Tennessee (-3) is a narrow favorite over Georgia Tech, as is Vandy (-5.5) over Middle Tennessee State. If these games go chalk, the SEC would be sitting at 3-3 in marquee games after Week 1, which would be a rather pedestrian way for the “best conference in the nation” to perform right out of the gate. Furthermore, Kentucky (-10) is not exactly an overwhelming favorite at Southern Miss, and both Georgia (-13.5) and LSU (-12.5) have surprising tight spreads against Appalachian State and BYU, respectively. Things could get real interesting down south this weekend.
ACC
In many ways, the ACC had a breakout year last year, scoring several victories over SEC opponents, culminating, of course, with the last second win over Alabama in the National Title game by the Clemson Tigers. As mentioned above, the ACC will get 3 cracks at SEC teams in Week 1, even if NC State is the only team who is favored. Fortunately, VA Tech (-4.5) and UNC (-12.5) are both favored in the other conference games of note versus West Virginia and Cal, respectively. Week 1 should be an early indicator if the ACC’s performance last year was a fluke or not. As for close games, Boston College (-1.5) travels to Northern Illinois, which is really just a nice chance for the MAC to get a good win.
Pac 12
Other than the aforementioned UCLA (-3) / Texas A&M match-up, the only real other game of note is the interstate battle between Colorado (-7) and Colorado State. While the Buffs will try to prove that last year was not a fluke, the Rams will try to prove that last week was not a fluke. In future-MSU-opponent news, a PJ Fleck-less Western Michigan squad will travel to LA to face USC (-23.5). Good luck with that, Broncos!
Big 12
Last year, I summarized the Power 5 conference (after the Big Ten) in alphabetic order, but I decided this year to put the Big 12 last and close to the Group of 5 since that seems… appropriate. Sure enough, in Week 1 the Big 12 did not disappoint by essentially having nothing to discuss. Only 4 teams are actually facing another Division 1 opponent, and other than the previously mentioned WVU (+4.5) / VA Tech game and the Texas (-16.5) / Maryland game, the only other game of note is the sneaky-tricky game featuring OK State as only a 16.5-point favor over Tulsa. Do we need to issue an early upset alert? Hmmmmm.
Group of Five and Notre Dame
The main purpose of this section is usually to comment on the impact that ND and the Group of 5 teams on the eventual NY6 Bowl picks, including the playoff games. The Irish open as modest 15-point favorites over Temple. Much like the Spartans, no one will really know if the Irish are “back” until a little later in the schedule. That said, for both teams, a loss in Week 1 would send a clear signal of “not yet back.” As for the Group of 5, the early team to watch this year is the South Florida Bulls. In “Week Zero” the Bulls opened with a respectable win at San Jose St, but this Week they face the non-Div 1 squad from Stony Brook. If any other Group of Five team were to make news this week, it would be a major surprise.
Spreadsheet Picks
Every week, I take a look at my spreadsheet algorithm’ in-season picks for each game. Considering the general lack of data everyone has at this point (which is pretty much limited to just information from preseason magazines) the picks are not that interesting. It only suggests one upset: Miami (OH) [+1] over Marshall, which is incidentally the only upset pick ESPN’s FPI makes. The full comparison of my algorithm to the opening Vegas spread is shown here:
For what it is worth, it also like 5 teams to cover (Clemson [not shown], Penn State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, and Georgia). Finally, I decided to try something fun this year and that is to set up a simple random number generator to also make upset picks. Since the Vegas spreads are highly correlated to a probability of victory (for example a 7-point favorite historically wins 70% of the time), it is simple enough to use random numbers to “simulate” all games in the week. That math tells me to expect 6.4 ± 2.2 upsets in Week 1. I then continued to pick a set of random numbers until I got a scenario with the correct number of average upsets (6) and it gave me the following picks:
South Carolina (+4.5) over NC State
Ball State (+8.5) over Illinois
Tulsa (+16.5) over OK State
Texas A&M (+3) over UCLA
Florida State (+7.5) over Alabama
Florida (+5) over Michigan.
Don't blame me, Michigan fans... blame MATH!
Enjoy!
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