Let’s be honest. It has been a rough couple of months for us Spartan football fans. After suffering through a 3-9 season and multiple off-the-field issues, we get to Spring only to see the Red Wings playoff streak come to an end, followed by an underwhelming Tigers season that ended with a fire sale. So, for me, this Saturday’s game was perhaps a bit more satisfying than your usual Week 1 debut. The weather was great. Campus looked great, and the team looked… pretty decent in cruising to the final score of MSU 35, LJ Scott Errors 10, and BGSU 0. Sure, there was a bit of adversity to overcome in first half (because apparently, the team needed a little more), but I was never under the impression that the Falcon offense was going to be able to make more than a handful of good plays for the entire afternoon. MSU’s defense gave a very solid first effort. As for the offense, Brain Lewerke had a bit of a shaky start, but wound up leading the team in passing, rushing, and for a moment after the first drive, tackles. The only odd (and possibly concerning) point was MSU’s the lackluster running attack, which we can reasonably assume will improve. For now, we can all enjoy football for a week. It was “only Bowling Green,” but I certainly feel better than I have after most of MSU’s openers over the past decade or so.
As for the rest of the college football world, it was an exciting 5-day extravaganza, but as I add up the upsets, there actually were not that many. In fact, there were only 3 in games involving two FBS opponents. This is significantly below the number I predicted in my preview (6-7), and significantly below the number of upsets in Week 1 over the past 7 years (ranging from 5 to 13). That said, there were 4 poor FBS teams that did suffer defeat at the hands on an FCS squad, the most notable of which was Baylor’s 45-48 loss to Liberty. Many experts had Baylor as a borderline Top 25 team. The other three losers (East Carolina, Georgia State, and UNLV) were all consensus Bottom 25 FBS teams, so it is debatable whether these were truly upsets in the first place.
As for the rest of the action, the graph above compares the final margins of victory against the opening spreads. As usual, the plot is pretty scattered, but it is clear to see the teams that covered easily (including 4 of the 5 teams that I predicted: Penn State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia), as well as some that did not (like Washington, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Louisville.) In other bookkeeping news, my model was only 18-22 against the spread (45%) and was 0/1 for upsets. My random upset generator, however, did pick one of the three (South Carolina over NC State) and thus went 1/6. For those FPI haters out there (myself included) we have to concede that the FPI did go 22-18 (55%) ATS this week, but also failed to predict any upsets. Now, for a quick look at the action in each conference.
Big Ten
For it only being Week 1, several questions did get answered in Big Ten country: Penn State still looks to be a contender, as does Wisconsin (after a fashion), and OSU still looks erratic (but very talented). As for the Wolverines, their defense still looks strong, which was apparent in the final score: Michigan 33, Wilton Speight Errors 14, Florida 3. But Michigan also answered perhaps the most important question of the weekend: yes, those all-yellow uniforms did look really, really stupid on TV. In general, it was a very good week for the conference. There were no upsets other than one on the positive side where Maryland went down to Austin and beat up on Texas to stake a claim as the biggest upset of the weekend. In particular, the Big Ten East had a great showing. In fact, 6 of the 7 East teams covered, and the only team that did not (Ohio State) played Indiana. Out West, however, if anything the picture was muddled. Wisconsin still looks like the favorite, but they struggled mightily in the first half. Some of the other dark horse teams in the division (Northwestern, Minnesota, and Nebraska) all struggled and failed to cover. On the flip side, Iowa easily beat a dangerous Wyoming team and even Purdue did better than expected in their loss to Louisville. The only constant seems to be that Illinois is still bad, but good job anyway, Illini, in avoiding an upset loss to a bottom half MAC team (Ball State).
SEC
In my week preview, I identified the SEC as the conference that had the most intriguing set of games on tap in Week 1. There were several games that I thought could go “south” for the SEC and really call into question the SEC’s perceived eminence. But, by Monday night (or perhaps Tuesday morning) the SEC was 10-2 and even scored one of the week’s scarce upsets when South Carolina beat NC State, leaving the nation to wonder, “why, again, was NC State ranked?” Not only that, but even the 2 losing teams (Texas A&M and Florida) had a bit of an excuse as the Aggies did at one point lead by 34 and Florida was basically playing with their JV team against a team that, in all fairness, they probably thought was West Virginia, and this time it wasn’t just because of the appearance and behavior of their opponent’s fans. Oh, and Bama beat FSU, surprising no one with the possible exception of my random upset generator.
Pac 12
You know who else had a good weekend? The Pac 12, as they went a perfect 11-0 (or 12-0 if we count Stanford’s vacation to Australia last weekend). Most notable was Cal’s upset at North Carolina and UCLA’s almost record breaking come back over Texas A&M. (Somewhere on Sunday night, John L Smith breathed a heavy sigh of relief. Don’t worry John, your biggest accomplishment in East Lansing is still safe!) Colorado also put a 17-3 sized hole in the side of Colorado State. That all said, it should be noted that some of the conference favorites (USC and Washington, in particular) were underwhelming against questionable opponents and failed to cover pretty significantly. Meanwhile, an awful lot of points were given up to FCS teams over the weekend as well. In other words, don’t pop those playoff-berth bottles of champaign just yet, left coasters.
ACC
You know who didn’t really have that great of a weekend? The ACC, that’s who. As mentioned previously, NC State and UNC both got upset, accounting for 2/3 of the total upset count for the entire weekend. GA Tech faded late and lost in 2OTs to Tennessee, and FSU sputtered in their big-boy game vs. Bama. Even some of the winners were a bit lackluster, as BC barely squeaked by Northern Illinois, and Louisville struggled to beat Purdue. On the bright side, Clemson managed to cover against Kent, who actually scored 3 more points against the Tigers than Ohio State could muster last fall, and VA Tech won in a their (sort of) marquee game vs. West Virginia. The Hokies got pretty excited at first, as they thought they might have just beaten a Top 15 Big Ten team, but then they read the name on the front of the jersey.
Big 12
The comic-relief Conference of the Power 5 did not disappoint, with both Texas and Baylor suffering hilarious upsets to Maryland and Liberty and with WVU failing to beat the Hokies. You guys are such a hoot! Can the Oklahoma schools save the conference again this year? They were the only team in the conference to cover vs. FBS schools, and OK State’s win over Tulsa was impressive. We will see how the Sooner’s fare next week in Columbus.
Group of Five / Independents
With the lack of upsets around the country this week, there is not too much to say about this group. Notre Dame won big against Temple and Western Michigan gave USC a run for their money. How good are those two teams? Well, MSU will find out soon enough. As for the rest of the Group of 5, the USF Bulls (the current favorite for the NY6 slot) won, or more precisely, avoided a disastrous upset to Stony Brook. Navy and UCF both won big, and Ball State and Northern Illinois almost got upset wins. Other than that, I suppose it is notable that out of all C-USA and Mountain West teams, only Marshall and Nevada covered. But, in the Sunbelt, 7 of the 8 teams that played FBS teams covered. Interesting, maybe?
Finally, I wanted to add one more “feature” to my weekly recap: the “how good/bad is…” segment. So, here goes:
How good is… Penn State?
The Nittany Lions were a bit of a surprise last year, winning their first Big Ten title in the post-Paterno era and only their 4th overall, if my math is correct. They return a lot of starters from last year’s team, yet they are still not favored to repeat as champs. The reason, of course, is Ohio State, and the fact that PSU must travel to Columbus this year is certainly a compelling part of that argument. But, the Lions just waxed Akron, 59-0 and looked impressive doing it. I know, I know, “only Akron,” but shut-outs are pretty rare, as is putting up close to 60. I must say that I am starting to wonder if the smart money in the Big Ten should be on the Lions to repeat.
How bad is… Texas?
For the flagship school in a state with perhaps the most high school talent in the free world, it is shocking that Texas has only one National Title since the Reagan administration, and the first year of the Reagan administration, to boot. After losing at home to perennial football powerhouse Maryland this weekend, new Texas coach and perceived savior Tom Herman said, “If we all thought that we were going to come in here and in nine months sprinkle some fairy dust on this team and think that we've arrived, then we're wrong.” Ouch! After starting the season ranked in most people’s Top 20, my model now suggests that they will only be favored in 4 games this year, and that is mostly against Big 12 competition. Double ouch! But, I should also apologize to the Terps. I mean, maybe they are just better than we think. After all they have more National Titles since 1950 than a certain school in Ann Arbor does. Wait a minute, why does this all sound familiar? Good recruiting? Rock-star head coach? Fairy Dust? No National Titles? Oh…. Ok, Texas, free piece of advice: never wear all yellow; people will confuse you with the Wolverines.
That is all for now. I will try to post my Week 2 preview before kick-off Thursday night. As always, enjoy.
As for the rest of the college football world, it was an exciting 5-day extravaganza, but as I add up the upsets, there actually were not that many. In fact, there were only 3 in games involving two FBS opponents. This is significantly below the number I predicted in my preview (6-7), and significantly below the number of upsets in Week 1 over the past 7 years (ranging from 5 to 13). That said, there were 4 poor FBS teams that did suffer defeat at the hands on an FCS squad, the most notable of which was Baylor’s 45-48 loss to Liberty. Many experts had Baylor as a borderline Top 25 team. The other three losers (East Carolina, Georgia State, and UNLV) were all consensus Bottom 25 FBS teams, so it is debatable whether these were truly upsets in the first place.
As for the rest of the action, the graph above compares the final margins of victory against the opening spreads. As usual, the plot is pretty scattered, but it is clear to see the teams that covered easily (including 4 of the 5 teams that I predicted: Penn State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia), as well as some that did not (like Washington, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Louisville.) In other bookkeeping news, my model was only 18-22 against the spread (45%) and was 0/1 for upsets. My random upset generator, however, did pick one of the three (South Carolina over NC State) and thus went 1/6. For those FPI haters out there (myself included) we have to concede that the FPI did go 22-18 (55%) ATS this week, but also failed to predict any upsets. Now, for a quick look at the action in each conference.
Big Ten
For it only being Week 1, several questions did get answered in Big Ten country: Penn State still looks to be a contender, as does Wisconsin (after a fashion), and OSU still looks erratic (but very talented). As for the Wolverines, their defense still looks strong, which was apparent in the final score: Michigan 33, Wilton Speight Errors 14, Florida 3. But Michigan also answered perhaps the most important question of the weekend: yes, those all-yellow uniforms did look really, really stupid on TV. In general, it was a very good week for the conference. There were no upsets other than one on the positive side where Maryland went down to Austin and beat up on Texas to stake a claim as the biggest upset of the weekend. In particular, the Big Ten East had a great showing. In fact, 6 of the 7 East teams covered, and the only team that did not (Ohio State) played Indiana. Out West, however, if anything the picture was muddled. Wisconsin still looks like the favorite, but they struggled mightily in the first half. Some of the other dark horse teams in the division (Northwestern, Minnesota, and Nebraska) all struggled and failed to cover. On the flip side, Iowa easily beat a dangerous Wyoming team and even Purdue did better than expected in their loss to Louisville. The only constant seems to be that Illinois is still bad, but good job anyway, Illini, in avoiding an upset loss to a bottom half MAC team (Ball State).
SEC
In my week preview, I identified the SEC as the conference that had the most intriguing set of games on tap in Week 1. There were several games that I thought could go “south” for the SEC and really call into question the SEC’s perceived eminence. But, by Monday night (or perhaps Tuesday morning) the SEC was 10-2 and even scored one of the week’s scarce upsets when South Carolina beat NC State, leaving the nation to wonder, “why, again, was NC State ranked?” Not only that, but even the 2 losing teams (Texas A&M and Florida) had a bit of an excuse as the Aggies did at one point lead by 34 and Florida was basically playing with their JV team against a team that, in all fairness, they probably thought was West Virginia, and this time it wasn’t just because of the appearance and behavior of their opponent’s fans. Oh, and Bama beat FSU, surprising no one with the possible exception of my random upset generator.
Pac 12
You know who else had a good weekend? The Pac 12, as they went a perfect 11-0 (or 12-0 if we count Stanford’s vacation to Australia last weekend). Most notable was Cal’s upset at North Carolina and UCLA’s almost record breaking come back over Texas A&M. (Somewhere on Sunday night, John L Smith breathed a heavy sigh of relief. Don’t worry John, your biggest accomplishment in East Lansing is still safe!) Colorado also put a 17-3 sized hole in the side of Colorado State. That all said, it should be noted that some of the conference favorites (USC and Washington, in particular) were underwhelming against questionable opponents and failed to cover pretty significantly. Meanwhile, an awful lot of points were given up to FCS teams over the weekend as well. In other words, don’t pop those playoff-berth bottles of champaign just yet, left coasters.
ACC
You know who didn’t really have that great of a weekend? The ACC, that’s who. As mentioned previously, NC State and UNC both got upset, accounting for 2/3 of the total upset count for the entire weekend. GA Tech faded late and lost in 2OTs to Tennessee, and FSU sputtered in their big-boy game vs. Bama. Even some of the winners were a bit lackluster, as BC barely squeaked by Northern Illinois, and Louisville struggled to beat Purdue. On the bright side, Clemson managed to cover against Kent, who actually scored 3 more points against the Tigers than Ohio State could muster last fall, and VA Tech won in a their (sort of) marquee game vs. West Virginia. The Hokies got pretty excited at first, as they thought they might have just beaten a Top 15 Big Ten team, but then they read the name on the front of the jersey.
Big 12
The comic-relief Conference of the Power 5 did not disappoint, with both Texas and Baylor suffering hilarious upsets to Maryland and Liberty and with WVU failing to beat the Hokies. You guys are such a hoot! Can the Oklahoma schools save the conference again this year? They were the only team in the conference to cover vs. FBS schools, and OK State’s win over Tulsa was impressive. We will see how the Sooner’s fare next week in Columbus.
Group of Five / Independents
With the lack of upsets around the country this week, there is not too much to say about this group. Notre Dame won big against Temple and Western Michigan gave USC a run for their money. How good are those two teams? Well, MSU will find out soon enough. As for the rest of the Group of 5, the USF Bulls (the current favorite for the NY6 slot) won, or more precisely, avoided a disastrous upset to Stony Brook. Navy and UCF both won big, and Ball State and Northern Illinois almost got upset wins. Other than that, I suppose it is notable that out of all C-USA and Mountain West teams, only Marshall and Nevada covered. But, in the Sunbelt, 7 of the 8 teams that played FBS teams covered. Interesting, maybe?
Finally, I wanted to add one more “feature” to my weekly recap: the “how good/bad is…” segment. So, here goes:
How good is… Penn State?
The Nittany Lions were a bit of a surprise last year, winning their first Big Ten title in the post-Paterno era and only their 4th overall, if my math is correct. They return a lot of starters from last year’s team, yet they are still not favored to repeat as champs. The reason, of course, is Ohio State, and the fact that PSU must travel to Columbus this year is certainly a compelling part of that argument. But, the Lions just waxed Akron, 59-0 and looked impressive doing it. I know, I know, “only Akron,” but shut-outs are pretty rare, as is putting up close to 60. I must say that I am starting to wonder if the smart money in the Big Ten should be on the Lions to repeat.
How bad is… Texas?
For the flagship school in a state with perhaps the most high school talent in the free world, it is shocking that Texas has only one National Title since the Reagan administration, and the first year of the Reagan administration, to boot. After losing at home to perennial football powerhouse Maryland this weekend, new Texas coach and perceived savior Tom Herman said, “If we all thought that we were going to come in here and in nine months sprinkle some fairy dust on this team and think that we've arrived, then we're wrong.” Ouch! After starting the season ranked in most people’s Top 20, my model now suggests that they will only be favored in 4 games this year, and that is mostly against Big 12 competition. Double ouch! But, I should also apologize to the Terps. I mean, maybe they are just better than we think. After all they have more National Titles since 1950 than a certain school in Ann Arbor does. Wait a minute, why does this all sound familiar? Good recruiting? Rock-star head coach? Fairy Dust? No National Titles? Oh…. Ok, Texas, free piece of advice: never wear all yellow; people will confuse you with the Wolverines.
That is all for now. I will try to post my Week 2 preview before kick-off Thursday night. As always, enjoy.
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