Week 1 was a nice little warm-up for the rest of the season. In some ways, it was like a delicious appetizer that serves as the first course to a fancy party. Right now, the guests are still milling around and chatting before each family needs to go to their own tables for the main course (starting roughly in October, with dessert served in December and January). Sure, some guests just ate cupcakes in Week 1, but others enjoyed some amazing steak tips, while still others, well, they choked. But this second round of appetizers really looks intriguing. In some ways, I think that Week 2 might be the most interesting week of the year. One reason is that the Vegas spreads suggest that there will be a ton of competitive games. Furthermore, Week 1 answered some questions, but it also simply provided a whole series of single data points for equations with two variables, which still leaves an awful lot of unknows. Is Texas really that bad, or is Maryland just that good? Are Washington and Louisville a little shaky this year, or are Rutgers and Purdue just improved? Is Michigan’s athletic director colorblind, or does he just have terrible taste? Most importantly, is USC really over-rated or are the Western Michigan Broncos just better than we thought (hoped?) Well, the Bronco’s former captain may have jumped ship and took his oars to Minneapolis, but the Broncos boat still seems to be afloat and they plan to park it on the banks of the Red Cedar this weekend. MSU opened as a 7.5-point favorite (corresponding to a 72% chance of victory) and my algorithm likes the Spartans a little more (-9.8). Personally, I was a lot more confident once I heard that WMU mostly hung with USC due to their run game and special teams, so I am optimistic that MSU can “sink the boat” and win by around 10 points or more, unless MSU gets particularly sloppy or unlucky. But, it is Week 2 and honestly, nobody really knows anything. By Sunday, the picture will start to become much more clear.
National Overview and My Spreadsheet Picks
This week I am going to mix things up a bit and start with the national overview. The graph above shows the opening spread for each game compared to the spread predicted by my algorithm. As you can see by the large amount of clustering in the bottom left corner, the majority of the games are predicted to be close, with over 50% (27/50) having a spread at 8 points or less. Because of this, my model also predicts quite a few upsets (7) and so does the FPI (8), which is odd, because last year the FPI was extremely conservative. When I applied the random number generator to the week’s action, it says to expect even more upsets (10.8 ± 2.7). In order to keep everything straight, I summarized all the upset picks in the table below. Yes, you read that correctly, when I ran the random upset simulation this time, MSU’s number came up and it picked WMU as one of the 11 upset winners. Stupid, ungrateful computer. For completeness, my spreadsheet also likes several teams to cover (UCLA, Baylor, Wisconsin, Oregon, Tulsa, Oklahoma State, Texas, South Carolina, Kansas State, Alabama, and Navy) and one team (Colorado) not to cover. However, in some cases my algorithm does not have all the information since I do not account for any games against FCS opponents. Thus, Baylor’s little misstep against Liberty last week is not counting against the Bears this week. #excuses.
Big Ten
The B1G had a strong start to the season last week and hopes to build on it this week, but it will not easy, as 8 of the conference’s 14 teams will be competing in games with spreads of 6 point or less. That said, Michigan (-29 hosting Cincinnati), Wisconsin (-33 hosting Florida Atlantic), and most likely Penn State (-17 hosting Pitt) are all not expected to face much resistance. As for the close games, the marquee event is obviously Oklahoma’s trip to Columbus and attempt to exact some revenge on Ohio State (-5.5). Honestly, both teams (programs?) seem erratic to me, but I personally have a real hard time believing that 34-yr old green-horn Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley is going to exit town with a “W.” Elsewhere in the conference, MSU (-7.5) is actually the next most favored team. Indiana (-2.5) and Iowa (-3) are both narrow favorites over Virginia and Iowa State, but both games are on the road. The same can be said for Minnesota (-1 at Oregon State) and Northwestern (opened as a pick’em at Duke). Both Purdue and Rutgers get to stay at home to pay a MAC school, but they are both only 4-point favorites vs. Ohio and EMU, respectively. On the other side of the coin, Illinois is actually a 6-point dog at home to Western Kentucky, and Nebraska is a 10-point underdog at Oregon. The good news is that the Big Ten is favored in 12 of the 14 contents. The bad news is that since so many of the games are predicted to be tight, it seems difficult for the conference to over-achieve, or even just “achieve.” The only consolation is that my model also is confident in the Big Ten and has 10 of the 14 teams covering.
SEC
After a busy start to the season last week, the majority of the SEC is taking is pretty easy in Week 2. Exactly half of the conference will face FCS opponents (which is incidentally five more FCS games that the Big Ten as a whole will play all year) and Bama is a 41.5-point favorite over Fresno State (which my model suggests is not even enough). The remaining games all appear to be a bit more interesting. The least of those is the match-up of Mississippi State (-8) at LA Tech. Road games are always a bit dicey, and the Mississippi schools have a bit of a history of embarrassing themselves, so I will be keeping an eye on that one. Conference play starts this week as well when the Gamecocks of South Carolina, fresh off their upset win over NC State, travel to Missouri to tangle with the Tigers (-3). My model (and the FPI) think the Gamecocks will notch another upset this week. But, the marquee events of the weekend are a trio great match-ups: TCU at Arkansas (-2.5), Georgia at Notre Dame (-6), and Auburn at Clemson (-6). Of the three, only Arkansas is favored, but once again both my model and the FPI like TCU. After the conference’s strong start last week, going 0-3 in these marquee games could take just a bit of the shine off the mighty SEC.
Pac 12
The Pac 12 went on a 12-0 tear last weekend, but like everybody this weekend, there are some challenging games on the docket. The biggest game is the first conference game of the year when Stanford travels to USC (-5.5). After USC’s underwhelming performance in Week 1, it is not surprise that a lot of people (including my computer) are picking the Cardinal in the upset. If this comes to pass, Stanford could exit the weekend as the Pac 12 favorite, considering that they draw Washington at home in mid-November. Other notable games include Utah at BYU (-1.5), the aforementioned Minnesota at Oregon State (+1), Houston at Arizona (pick’em), and San Diego State at Arizona State (-3). My model was not impressed with BYU’s offensive output last week and likes Utah in the upset, but it also likes both Arizona schools to lose. Both Washington State (-7.5 hosting Boise State) and Oregon (-10 hosting the Huskers) are a bit safer, but you never know. It seems unlikely that the conference will come close to the win total from last week.
ACC
The ACC took it on the chip a bit in Week 1, and the docket it Week 2 is not quite as exciting as it is in most of the other Power 5 conferences. But, there are a few chances for the conference to gain a bit of redemption. The marquee game is, of course, the all-Tiger battle between Auburn and Clemson (-6). Considering Clemson is at home and was the only Tiger in this fight to have covered last week, I like the defending champs here. The other major opportunities for the ACC lie in the pair of Big Ten games as Duke hosts Northwestern (pick’em) and Virginia hosts Indiana (-2.5). I think the results here will tell us more about the future of the Big Ten than the ACC. Conference action also starts in the ACC this week with the most notable game featuring a battle of two of the more disappointing teams from Week 1 when Louisville (-6) travel to Chapel Hill to battle the Tar Heels. It is hard to say if that outcome will tell us anything either, but if Louisville stumbles, the table is pretty much cleared for the eventual Clemson-FSU winner in mid-November (which we all expect anyway).
Big 12
In what I expect to be a reoccurring theme this year (and maybe for several years to come) there is not much to say about the Big 12. Yes, the Oklahoma at Ohio State (-5.5) game is big, but come on? The Sooners don’t actually think that they are going to win, do they? I do think that TCU has a good chance to upset Arkansas (-2.5), and Iowa State (+3) always gives Iowa fits, but other than that Big 12 fans are really just hoping that Kansas can avoid the upset to Central Michigan (+3.5). Baby steps!
Group of Five / Independents
The Fighting Irish had a strong Week 1 and in Week 2 they draw another home game, but this time the opponent is a bona fide SEC team and not just a basketball school from Philly. That said, Georgia is still a 6-point dog, and will be playing without their starting QB. Furthermore, has Georgia ever won one of these high-profile games in the recent past? I don’t expect that to change this week, but at least the game should generate some useful game film for MSU to review on their bye week. As for the Group of Five, it is prudent to first look at the AAC, and although South Florida is not expected to be challenged at UCONN (-17), Houston has a chance to make some news at Arizona State (pick’em) and the early conference battle of Memphis at UCF (-2.5) will impact both AAC division races. My model likes Memphis here. In C-USA, the preseason favorite, Western Kentucky, is a dark horse for the NY6, but they will need to win in Champaign this weekend (which is expected) to stay on the radar. As mentioned above, the MAC also has several match-ups that appear winnable (CMU at Kansas [-3.5], Ohio at Purdue [-4], EMU at Rutgers [-4], and yes, Western at MSU [-7.5]) but they would also be well served if conference favorite Toledo (-8) can get a win at Nevada. Finally, the action in the Mountain West and Sun Belt is less compelling than in Week 2, but San Diego State could cause trouble at Arizona State (-3) and Boise will certainly not be intimidated by visiting Washington State (-7.5).
Well, that’s all for this week. Hang onto your hats, as it looks like it could be wild ride this weekend.
National Overview and My Spreadsheet Picks
This week I am going to mix things up a bit and start with the national overview. The graph above shows the opening spread for each game compared to the spread predicted by my algorithm. As you can see by the large amount of clustering in the bottom left corner, the majority of the games are predicted to be close, with over 50% (27/50) having a spread at 8 points or less. Because of this, my model also predicts quite a few upsets (7) and so does the FPI (8), which is odd, because last year the FPI was extremely conservative. When I applied the random number generator to the week’s action, it says to expect even more upsets (10.8 ± 2.7). In order to keep everything straight, I summarized all the upset picks in the table below. Yes, you read that correctly, when I ran the random upset simulation this time, MSU’s number came up and it picked WMU as one of the 11 upset winners. Stupid, ungrateful computer. For completeness, my spreadsheet also likes several teams to cover (UCLA, Baylor, Wisconsin, Oregon, Tulsa, Oklahoma State, Texas, South Carolina, Kansas State, Alabama, and Navy) and one team (Colorado) not to cover. However, in some cases my algorithm does not have all the information since I do not account for any games against FCS opponents. Thus, Baylor’s little misstep against Liberty last week is not counting against the Bears this week. #excuses.
Big Ten
The B1G had a strong start to the season last week and hopes to build on it this week, but it will not easy, as 8 of the conference’s 14 teams will be competing in games with spreads of 6 point or less. That said, Michigan (-29 hosting Cincinnati), Wisconsin (-33 hosting Florida Atlantic), and most likely Penn State (-17 hosting Pitt) are all not expected to face much resistance. As for the close games, the marquee event is obviously Oklahoma’s trip to Columbus and attempt to exact some revenge on Ohio State (-5.5). Honestly, both teams (programs?) seem erratic to me, but I personally have a real hard time believing that 34-yr old green-horn Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley is going to exit town with a “W.” Elsewhere in the conference, MSU (-7.5) is actually the next most favored team. Indiana (-2.5) and Iowa (-3) are both narrow favorites over Virginia and Iowa State, but both games are on the road. The same can be said for Minnesota (-1 at Oregon State) and Northwestern (opened as a pick’em at Duke). Both Purdue and Rutgers get to stay at home to pay a MAC school, but they are both only 4-point favorites vs. Ohio and EMU, respectively. On the other side of the coin, Illinois is actually a 6-point dog at home to Western Kentucky, and Nebraska is a 10-point underdog at Oregon. The good news is that the Big Ten is favored in 12 of the 14 contents. The bad news is that since so many of the games are predicted to be tight, it seems difficult for the conference to over-achieve, or even just “achieve.” The only consolation is that my model also is confident in the Big Ten and has 10 of the 14 teams covering.
SEC
After a busy start to the season last week, the majority of the SEC is taking is pretty easy in Week 2. Exactly half of the conference will face FCS opponents (which is incidentally five more FCS games that the Big Ten as a whole will play all year) and Bama is a 41.5-point favorite over Fresno State (which my model suggests is not even enough). The remaining games all appear to be a bit more interesting. The least of those is the match-up of Mississippi State (-8) at LA Tech. Road games are always a bit dicey, and the Mississippi schools have a bit of a history of embarrassing themselves, so I will be keeping an eye on that one. Conference play starts this week as well when the Gamecocks of South Carolina, fresh off their upset win over NC State, travel to Missouri to tangle with the Tigers (-3). My model (and the FPI) think the Gamecocks will notch another upset this week. But, the marquee events of the weekend are a trio great match-ups: TCU at Arkansas (-2.5), Georgia at Notre Dame (-6), and Auburn at Clemson (-6). Of the three, only Arkansas is favored, but once again both my model and the FPI like TCU. After the conference’s strong start last week, going 0-3 in these marquee games could take just a bit of the shine off the mighty SEC.
Pac 12
The Pac 12 went on a 12-0 tear last weekend, but like everybody this weekend, there are some challenging games on the docket. The biggest game is the first conference game of the year when Stanford travels to USC (-5.5). After USC’s underwhelming performance in Week 1, it is not surprise that a lot of people (including my computer) are picking the Cardinal in the upset. If this comes to pass, Stanford could exit the weekend as the Pac 12 favorite, considering that they draw Washington at home in mid-November. Other notable games include Utah at BYU (-1.5), the aforementioned Minnesota at Oregon State (+1), Houston at Arizona (pick’em), and San Diego State at Arizona State (-3). My model was not impressed with BYU’s offensive output last week and likes Utah in the upset, but it also likes both Arizona schools to lose. Both Washington State (-7.5 hosting Boise State) and Oregon (-10 hosting the Huskers) are a bit safer, but you never know. It seems unlikely that the conference will come close to the win total from last week.
ACC
The ACC took it on the chip a bit in Week 1, and the docket it Week 2 is not quite as exciting as it is in most of the other Power 5 conferences. But, there are a few chances for the conference to gain a bit of redemption. The marquee game is, of course, the all-Tiger battle between Auburn and Clemson (-6). Considering Clemson is at home and was the only Tiger in this fight to have covered last week, I like the defending champs here. The other major opportunities for the ACC lie in the pair of Big Ten games as Duke hosts Northwestern (pick’em) and Virginia hosts Indiana (-2.5). I think the results here will tell us more about the future of the Big Ten than the ACC. Conference action also starts in the ACC this week with the most notable game featuring a battle of two of the more disappointing teams from Week 1 when Louisville (-6) travel to Chapel Hill to battle the Tar Heels. It is hard to say if that outcome will tell us anything either, but if Louisville stumbles, the table is pretty much cleared for the eventual Clemson-FSU winner in mid-November (which we all expect anyway).
Big 12
In what I expect to be a reoccurring theme this year (and maybe for several years to come) there is not much to say about the Big 12. Yes, the Oklahoma at Ohio State (-5.5) game is big, but come on? The Sooners don’t actually think that they are going to win, do they? I do think that TCU has a good chance to upset Arkansas (-2.5), and Iowa State (+3) always gives Iowa fits, but other than that Big 12 fans are really just hoping that Kansas can avoid the upset to Central Michigan (+3.5). Baby steps!
Group of Five / Independents
The Fighting Irish had a strong Week 1 and in Week 2 they draw another home game, but this time the opponent is a bona fide SEC team and not just a basketball school from Philly. That said, Georgia is still a 6-point dog, and will be playing without their starting QB. Furthermore, has Georgia ever won one of these high-profile games in the recent past? I don’t expect that to change this week, but at least the game should generate some useful game film for MSU to review on their bye week. As for the Group of Five, it is prudent to first look at the AAC, and although South Florida is not expected to be challenged at UCONN (-17), Houston has a chance to make some news at Arizona State (pick’em) and the early conference battle of Memphis at UCF (-2.5) will impact both AAC division races. My model likes Memphis here. In C-USA, the preseason favorite, Western Kentucky, is a dark horse for the NY6, but they will need to win in Champaign this weekend (which is expected) to stay on the radar. As mentioned above, the MAC also has several match-ups that appear winnable (CMU at Kansas [-3.5], Ohio at Purdue [-4], EMU at Rutgers [-4], and yes, Western at MSU [-7.5]) but they would also be well served if conference favorite Toledo (-8) can get a win at Nevada. Finally, the action in the Mountain West and Sun Belt is less compelling than in Week 2, but San Diego State could cause trouble at Arizona State (-3) and Boise will certainly not be intimidated by visiting Washington State (-7.5).
Well, that’s all for this week. Hang onto your hats, as it looks like it could be wild ride this weekend.
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ReplyDeleteWell done!!
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