The more things change, the more they stay the same. For MSU fans, we saw yet another perfect day of September weather in East Lansing as MSU beat another MAC team by the final score of MSU 28, Darius Phillips 14. Yet again, MSU’s D did not give up TD, and yet again the offense did, but not due to an interception. Yet again, the two best running backs on the team appeared to be Darrell Stewart and Brian Lewerke. And, yet again, I left the stadium feeling pretty good. This team looks like an “old” Mark Dantonio team to me. During the radio post-game show, I felt like the players sounded like members of an “old” Mark Dantonio team. I could hear that magical combination of hunger and confidence. After two strong (but not perfect) performances, now the team will get a week to take a short break and focus on huge 3-game stretch that will essentially reveal if this MSU team is a contender, if they are dangerous but still a year away, or if those last two games on the schedule are going to be needed just to make a bowl game. For me, for now, it just always comes back to Coach Dantonio who has clearly demonstrated the ability to take a team full of 3-star recruits and turn them into champions. That may not happen this year, but that is one thing I do not expect to change in the long term. I think that will stay the same.
As for the rest of the nation, last week I complained about the weird lack of upset in Week 1. Well, Week 2 attempted to make up the difference with a total of 14 upsets in FBS games, with an additional 2 upsets of FBS teams by FCS teams, including a team that may or may not have visited East Lansing in Week 1 (BGSU, you had ONE job!) The weekly Vegas vs. actual comparison chart below highlights, once again, the general chaotic nature of college football. Teams favored by around a touchdown both won by over 30 (Ole Miss) and lost by more than 25 (Idaho). Furthermore, we can see the teams that over-achieved this week (including K-State, Ole Miss, West Virginia, OK State, UCLA, Minnesota, Duke, Purdue, Indiana, and bizarrely, both Texas and USC) as well as the teams that did not do so well, relative to the spread (i.e. Alabama, Wisconsin, Army, Navy and Northwestern.)
Regarding the upsets specifically (i.e. the teams that really under-achieved), they can be found under the red line in the chart above, and summarized in table below. The most notable upsets being Oklahoma over Ohio State, TCU over Arkansas, Kansas’s loss to the Chippewas, Arizona State’s loss to San Diego State, Notre Dame’s loss to Georgia, Baylor’s loss to UTSA, Illinois’ win over WKU, and Rutgers’ loss to EMU. Not to brag, but my spreadsheet model also had one of its best weeks ever, getting 5 of 6 upset picks correct, 7 of 12 cover picks correct, and going 28-18 against the opening spread (61%). ESPN’s FPI was not so fortunate. It went 4 for 8 in upsets (which is actually still pretty good) and only 18-28 against the spread (39%). My random number generator, incidentally, also got 4 upset picks, but is only at 31.% for the year. It will be fun to see if the FPI can keep up with it as the year progresses. Now, let’s take a quick spin around the country to see what went down in each conference.
Big Ten
It was an interesting mixed bag for the Big Ten this week with some teams building on last week’s success, other teams bouncing back, and yet other teams seemingly going in the opposite direction. In the first category, I will place Indiana, Maryland, MSU, Penn State and Purdue. Indiana and Purdue both lost last week, but looked better than expected doing it. This week, both teams were slight favorites in tricky match ups, yet both teams won in impressive fashion at Virginia and vs. Ohio. While I don’t expect to see either team on the cover of Sports Illustrated just yet, I think the rest of the B1G needs to look at their future match-ups with these teams with a little more concern. Similarly, I am sure that everyone remembers Maryland’s big win at Texas last week. This week the Terps put up 63 points on FCS opponent Towson and down in Texas those hapless Longhorns just happened to blank San Jose State 56-0 this week. Huh. As for MSU, we all know that they have now covered two weeks in a row, as has Penn State by exacting revenge on Pitt (and then providing them with enough bulletin board material for a decade – smart!)
For the bounce-back category, I would place Illinois and Minnesota. The Illini were almost a touchdown home-dog to a C-USA team. That is not good. But, Illinois shook off last week’s near loss to Ball State and managed to beat a solid Western Kentucky team by 13. Similarly, last week Minnesota struggled to beat Buffalo (who is picked to finish near the bottom of the MAC), but this week they rowed their boat out to the West Coast and put the hurt on the Oregon State Beavers 48-14. Once again, I would not recommend that either fan base start looking for hotels in Indianapolis in early December yet, but I see this as solid progress.
As for the rest of the bunch, color me not impressed. Nebraska? OK, you guys were not expected to beat Oregon and you actually covered, but you were down 42-12 at the half. Rutgers? You teased us all a bit last week by hanging with a Top 10 Pac 12 team and then you lose… to Eastern Michigan? Really? Iowa? You guys did win (eventually), and I know Iowa State is a rival (and on the road), but you guys did not look like the potential West contenders that played last week. Michigan and Wisconsin? Yes, both teams won comfortably, but both failed to cover by wide margins. I heard the boo birds even made a brief stop in Ann Arbor, and after the game Harbaugh admitted that he is dead inside. “Burnt wood.” Uh, what? If you ask me, he is just a half step behind slapping himself. (SMILE!!!!) Northwestern? You struggled last week to beat Nevada and this week you lost the Nerd Bowl to Duke by 24 points. I thought you were supposed to be a trendy pick to win the West? And finally, Ohio State? Hot tip: if you think you are the Big Ten favorite, don’t loss to a Big 12 team (even a good one) at home. Honestly, this team has been average to bad (but with great athletes) for several games in a row now, and I have to wonder if the wheels are starting to come off, just like they did in Florida. I wonder if Urban might be coming down with an acute case of “health issues.” Stay tuned. As for the conference as a whole, I thought a strong weekend might nudge the conference closer to the possibility of getting 2 playoff berths, but that seems less likely now. I also stand by my prediction that Penn State is the current favorite.
Big 12
This year, I decided to try to order the non-B1G conference summaries generally in the reverse order of either importance or performance in a given week. Strangely, as I looked through the action in each conference, I decided that the Big 12 earned a spot in this “coveted” second slot. (I know, weird, right?) Hear me out. Yes, Baylor and Kansas both lost in embarrassing fashion (to UTSA and CMU), but we know that they are terrible. Iowa State also lost, but in OT to in-state rival, and they even earned a push on the spread. But, the other 6 teams in action this week all won. Not only that, all 6 teams covered and Oklahoma and TCU even scored significant upsets over OSU and Arkansas. Even Texas won. By a lot. OK, Big 12, I have been riding you guys for a while now, and perhaps I owe you an apology. Perhaps…… Nah, let’s see what you guys do next week first.
ACC
Third in the pecking order this week is the ACC, in large part due to strong performances by Clemson (over Auburn) and Duke (over Northwestern). Neither win was an upset, but both certainly helped the overall perception of the conference, which is something that does not happen when you get upset by Middle Tennessee State (**cough** Syracuse **cough**). Don’t worry SoRrY exCUSE, you are in good company. Other than that, the rest of the conference failed to cover in non-conference action (I am looking at you NC State, Pitt, and UVA). In notable conference action, Louisville over came last week’s sluggish performance against Purdue and took care of business against UNC, which allows us to think about the Atlantic Division race as something involving more than just 2 teams.
SEC
As I mentioned in the preview, the expectations were low down south this week, and the conference essentially met expectations. Auburn lost to Clemson, as expected, and Arkansas got upset by TCU (as I expected), but Georgia somehow partially redeemed the conference by scoring a road upset win at Notre Dame. Other than that, Mississippi State covered, while Bama didn’t, and South Carolina scored its 2nd upset in the year by beating Mizzou on the road. Is it too early to declare the Gamecocks as a dark horse in the SEC East? (Yes.)
Pac 12
The conference bottom of the barrel award this week goes to the Pac 12. After a perfect Week 1, the conference came back with a pretty lackluster Week 2. Sure, they only lost 3 non-conference games, but all three were a bit ugly. The Arizona schools both management to lose at home to Group of Five opponents (The Sun Devils fell to San Diego State while the Wildcats fell to Houston), and Oregon State got hammered at home by Minnesota, despite being only a 1-point dog. Furthermore, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State all failed to cover. As bright spots, Utah did upset cross-state rivals BYU, and UCLA covered vs Hawaii. Then, there was Stanford’s 18-point loss to USC, which I personally thought was about the most sure-fire upset in the history of college football, and which also reminded exactly why I don’t actually bet on sports. I honestly don’t know what to make of it, but I do know that it likely helps MSU’s strength of schedule just a hair.
Group of Five / Independents
It is a little early in the season for me to officially give up on Notre Dame, but after this week’s lose to Georgia, and if MSU can manage to score a victory in 2 weeks, the Irish are pretty much sunk when it comes to the NY6. I did manage catch a little of the ND-UGA game on Saturday night and came out not overly impressed with either team. Then, I checked the box score and found that the Irish rushed for only 55 yards and Wimbush finished with a raw QB rating of 19.3. Suddenly, I like MSU’s chance in 2 weeks just a little more. In Group of Five news, most of the AAC contenders wound up staying home from school due to Hurricane Irma, so we didn’t learn anything new, but the fact the Houston went out and got the upset is a bit of a feel-good story (unless, of course, you are an Arizona fan). The MAC had a solid week, scoring two major upsets when CMU and EMU beat Kansas and Rutgers (OK, perhaps “major” is a stretch) and another solid 13-point road win by Toledo over Nevada. The Rockets seem like the best overall hope for the MAC, but Miami (FL) is waiting for them in two weeks. The Mountain West had an OK week, but Boise could not get a win over Wazzou, and now perhaps San Diego State is the conference’s best (only?) chance at the NY6. In C-USA, Western Kentucky pretty much needed to beat Illinois to keep the dream of a NY6 bid alive, so I would guess the entire conference is likely out of the NY6 sweepstakes and the same is likely true of the Sun Belt.
And now for, how good is…. Purdue?
(Full disclosure, I did my graduate work at Purdue… Boiler Up!) Last week everyone was surprised that Purdue actually led Louisville with 10 minutes to go, but most people (including myself) thought that either the Cardinals were off their game or that it was just a 1-game anomaly. Then, this week Louisville beat up on UNC and Purdue dominated Ohio, the team that is favored to win the MAC East and who is coached by former Nebraska head man, Frank Solich (remember that guy?) Yes, I know, “just Ohio” and it is early, but Purdue no longer looks like a push-over. I am not sure I would want to be the first Big Ten team to have to travel to West Lafayette this year… (checks schedule, smiles evilly)
How bad is…. Baylor?
I made fun of Baylor last week for losing to Liberty, but in all honesty, I thought it was just a one-game fluke. After all, ESPN’s FPI had them ranked 28 this summer. Phil Steele had them at 31. Certainly, they would bounce back against UT-San Antonio, right? I mean the Roadrunners (actual mascot name) just started play in 2011, only joined the FBS in 2013, and had never beaten a Power 5 team. Well, now they have. Where do the Bears go from here? Well, they travel to Duke next weekend (and that turned out great for Northwestern) and after that Big 12 play starts... with Oklahoma. The poor saps even have to travel to Kansas this year, and even that looks like it might be a battle. 0-12 is a real possibility. Oh well, I guess sometimes what goes around comes around #karma.
Well, that is all I have for this week. Stay tuned for my Week 3 preview in a couple of days.
Enjoy!
As for the rest of the nation, last week I complained about the weird lack of upset in Week 1. Well, Week 2 attempted to make up the difference with a total of 14 upsets in FBS games, with an additional 2 upsets of FBS teams by FCS teams, including a team that may or may not have visited East Lansing in Week 1 (BGSU, you had ONE job!) The weekly Vegas vs. actual comparison chart below highlights, once again, the general chaotic nature of college football. Teams favored by around a touchdown both won by over 30 (Ole Miss) and lost by more than 25 (Idaho). Furthermore, we can see the teams that over-achieved this week (including K-State, Ole Miss, West Virginia, OK State, UCLA, Minnesota, Duke, Purdue, Indiana, and bizarrely, both Texas and USC) as well as the teams that did not do so well, relative to the spread (i.e. Alabama, Wisconsin, Army, Navy and Northwestern.)
Regarding the upsets specifically (i.e. the teams that really under-achieved), they can be found under the red line in the chart above, and summarized in table below. The most notable upsets being Oklahoma over Ohio State, TCU over Arkansas, Kansas’s loss to the Chippewas, Arizona State’s loss to San Diego State, Notre Dame’s loss to Georgia, Baylor’s loss to UTSA, Illinois’ win over WKU, and Rutgers’ loss to EMU. Not to brag, but my spreadsheet model also had one of its best weeks ever, getting 5 of 6 upset picks correct, 7 of 12 cover picks correct, and going 28-18 against the opening spread (61%). ESPN’s FPI was not so fortunate. It went 4 for 8 in upsets (which is actually still pretty good) and only 18-28 against the spread (39%). My random number generator, incidentally, also got 4 upset picks, but is only at 31.% for the year. It will be fun to see if the FPI can keep up with it as the year progresses. Now, let’s take a quick spin around the country to see what went down in each conference.
Big Ten
It was an interesting mixed bag for the Big Ten this week with some teams building on last week’s success, other teams bouncing back, and yet other teams seemingly going in the opposite direction. In the first category, I will place Indiana, Maryland, MSU, Penn State and Purdue. Indiana and Purdue both lost last week, but looked better than expected doing it. This week, both teams were slight favorites in tricky match ups, yet both teams won in impressive fashion at Virginia and vs. Ohio. While I don’t expect to see either team on the cover of Sports Illustrated just yet, I think the rest of the B1G needs to look at their future match-ups with these teams with a little more concern. Similarly, I am sure that everyone remembers Maryland’s big win at Texas last week. This week the Terps put up 63 points on FCS opponent Towson and down in Texas those hapless Longhorns just happened to blank San Jose State 56-0 this week. Huh. As for MSU, we all know that they have now covered two weeks in a row, as has Penn State by exacting revenge on Pitt (and then providing them with enough bulletin board material for a decade – smart!)
For the bounce-back category, I would place Illinois and Minnesota. The Illini were almost a touchdown home-dog to a C-USA team. That is not good. But, Illinois shook off last week’s near loss to Ball State and managed to beat a solid Western Kentucky team by 13. Similarly, last week Minnesota struggled to beat Buffalo (who is picked to finish near the bottom of the MAC), but this week they rowed their boat out to the West Coast and put the hurt on the Oregon State Beavers 48-14. Once again, I would not recommend that either fan base start looking for hotels in Indianapolis in early December yet, but I see this as solid progress.
As for the rest of the bunch, color me not impressed. Nebraska? OK, you guys were not expected to beat Oregon and you actually covered, but you were down 42-12 at the half. Rutgers? You teased us all a bit last week by hanging with a Top 10 Pac 12 team and then you lose… to Eastern Michigan? Really? Iowa? You guys did win (eventually), and I know Iowa State is a rival (and on the road), but you guys did not look like the potential West contenders that played last week. Michigan and Wisconsin? Yes, both teams won comfortably, but both failed to cover by wide margins. I heard the boo birds even made a brief stop in Ann Arbor, and after the game Harbaugh admitted that he is dead inside. “Burnt wood.” Uh, what? If you ask me, he is just a half step behind slapping himself. (SMILE!!!!) Northwestern? You struggled last week to beat Nevada and this week you lost the Nerd Bowl to Duke by 24 points. I thought you were supposed to be a trendy pick to win the West? And finally, Ohio State? Hot tip: if you think you are the Big Ten favorite, don’t loss to a Big 12 team (even a good one) at home. Honestly, this team has been average to bad (but with great athletes) for several games in a row now, and I have to wonder if the wheels are starting to come off, just like they did in Florida. I wonder if Urban might be coming down with an acute case of “health issues.” Stay tuned. As for the conference as a whole, I thought a strong weekend might nudge the conference closer to the possibility of getting 2 playoff berths, but that seems less likely now. I also stand by my prediction that Penn State is the current favorite.
Big 12
This year, I decided to try to order the non-B1G conference summaries generally in the reverse order of either importance or performance in a given week. Strangely, as I looked through the action in each conference, I decided that the Big 12 earned a spot in this “coveted” second slot. (I know, weird, right?) Hear me out. Yes, Baylor and Kansas both lost in embarrassing fashion (to UTSA and CMU), but we know that they are terrible. Iowa State also lost, but in OT to in-state rival, and they even earned a push on the spread. But, the other 6 teams in action this week all won. Not only that, all 6 teams covered and Oklahoma and TCU even scored significant upsets over OSU and Arkansas. Even Texas won. By a lot. OK, Big 12, I have been riding you guys for a while now, and perhaps I owe you an apology. Perhaps…… Nah, let’s see what you guys do next week first.
ACC
Third in the pecking order this week is the ACC, in large part due to strong performances by Clemson (over Auburn) and Duke (over Northwestern). Neither win was an upset, but both certainly helped the overall perception of the conference, which is something that does not happen when you get upset by Middle Tennessee State (**cough** Syracuse **cough**). Don’t worry SoRrY exCUSE, you are in good company. Other than that, the rest of the conference failed to cover in non-conference action (I am looking at you NC State, Pitt, and UVA). In notable conference action, Louisville over came last week’s sluggish performance against Purdue and took care of business against UNC, which allows us to think about the Atlantic Division race as something involving more than just 2 teams.
SEC
As I mentioned in the preview, the expectations were low down south this week, and the conference essentially met expectations. Auburn lost to Clemson, as expected, and Arkansas got upset by TCU (as I expected), but Georgia somehow partially redeemed the conference by scoring a road upset win at Notre Dame. Other than that, Mississippi State covered, while Bama didn’t, and South Carolina scored its 2nd upset in the year by beating Mizzou on the road. Is it too early to declare the Gamecocks as a dark horse in the SEC East? (Yes.)
Pac 12
The conference bottom of the barrel award this week goes to the Pac 12. After a perfect Week 1, the conference came back with a pretty lackluster Week 2. Sure, they only lost 3 non-conference games, but all three were a bit ugly. The Arizona schools both management to lose at home to Group of Five opponents (The Sun Devils fell to San Diego State while the Wildcats fell to Houston), and Oregon State got hammered at home by Minnesota, despite being only a 1-point dog. Furthermore, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State all failed to cover. As bright spots, Utah did upset cross-state rivals BYU, and UCLA covered vs Hawaii. Then, there was Stanford’s 18-point loss to USC, which I personally thought was about the most sure-fire upset in the history of college football, and which also reminded exactly why I don’t actually bet on sports. I honestly don’t know what to make of it, but I do know that it likely helps MSU’s strength of schedule just a hair.
Group of Five / Independents
It is a little early in the season for me to officially give up on Notre Dame, but after this week’s lose to Georgia, and if MSU can manage to score a victory in 2 weeks, the Irish are pretty much sunk when it comes to the NY6. I did manage catch a little of the ND-UGA game on Saturday night and came out not overly impressed with either team. Then, I checked the box score and found that the Irish rushed for only 55 yards and Wimbush finished with a raw QB rating of 19.3. Suddenly, I like MSU’s chance in 2 weeks just a little more. In Group of Five news, most of the AAC contenders wound up staying home from school due to Hurricane Irma, so we didn’t learn anything new, but the fact the Houston went out and got the upset is a bit of a feel-good story (unless, of course, you are an Arizona fan). The MAC had a solid week, scoring two major upsets when CMU and EMU beat Kansas and Rutgers (OK, perhaps “major” is a stretch) and another solid 13-point road win by Toledo over Nevada. The Rockets seem like the best overall hope for the MAC, but Miami (FL) is waiting for them in two weeks. The Mountain West had an OK week, but Boise could not get a win over Wazzou, and now perhaps San Diego State is the conference’s best (only?) chance at the NY6. In C-USA, Western Kentucky pretty much needed to beat Illinois to keep the dream of a NY6 bid alive, so I would guess the entire conference is likely out of the NY6 sweepstakes and the same is likely true of the Sun Belt.
And now for, how good is…. Purdue?
(Full disclosure, I did my graduate work at Purdue… Boiler Up!) Last week everyone was surprised that Purdue actually led Louisville with 10 minutes to go, but most people (including myself) thought that either the Cardinals were off their game or that it was just a 1-game anomaly. Then, this week Louisville beat up on UNC and Purdue dominated Ohio, the team that is favored to win the MAC East and who is coached by former Nebraska head man, Frank Solich (remember that guy?) Yes, I know, “just Ohio” and it is early, but Purdue no longer looks like a push-over. I am not sure I would want to be the first Big Ten team to have to travel to West Lafayette this year… (checks schedule, smiles evilly)
How bad is…. Baylor?
I made fun of Baylor last week for losing to Liberty, but in all honesty, I thought it was just a one-game fluke. After all, ESPN’s FPI had them ranked 28 this summer. Phil Steele had them at 31. Certainly, they would bounce back against UT-San Antonio, right? I mean the Roadrunners (actual mascot name) just started play in 2011, only joined the FBS in 2013, and had never beaten a Power 5 team. Well, now they have. Where do the Bears go from here? Well, they travel to Duke next weekend (and that turned out great for Northwestern) and after that Big 12 play starts... with Oklahoma. The poor saps even have to travel to Kansas this year, and even that looks like it might be a battle. 0-12 is a real possibility. Oh well, I guess sometimes what goes around comes around #karma.
Well, that is all I have for this week. Stay tuned for my Week 3 preview in a couple of days.
Enjoy!
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