As mid-September approaches, MSU has now already achieved the same number of both home wins as well as wins over FBS opponents as they got in all of 2016. That is a heck of an accomplishment for just two weeks, so you know what guys? Just take it easy this week. Sit back, relax and watch a little football just like the rest of us. Or, maybe head down to Houston to help a little with the hurricane relief. That is certainly a noble cause, and MSU might even get a little positive P.R. out of it. That is, as long as Harbaugh doesn’t do something crazy like rescue a puppy from a tree (who knew that puppy could climb a tree?) and block out all other news this weekend, like a one man solar news eclipse. I peg those odds at 50-50. In the meantime, although the games are not predicted to be as competitive this week, I still see a few potentially intriguing match-ups
National Overview and My Spreadsheet Picks
As usual, the plot above shows the opening Vegas spread compared to the projected spread from my model. My model is picking a total of 15 teams to cover this week, including several notable teams such as Michigan, Iowa, Texas A&M, TCU, Baylor, Nebraska, Oregon, Notre Dame, Minnesota, and LSU. (I should mention that I consider the model makes a cover pick when my projected spread deviates by more than 10 points from the Vegas spread, shown by the dotted lines on the chart.) Interestingly, many of these teams seem to have had surprisingly good or bad performances in either Week 1 or Week2. My model (and Vegas for that matter) at this point in the season has very little to go on, and so for some teams it is hard to know which team is the “real team.” For example, Minnesota struggled to beat Buffalo in Week 1, but crushed Oregon State in Week 2. Which Gopher team is the “real team?” My model simply is taking the average of Minnesota’s preseason ranking and performance in Week 1 and 2 (with each portion counting one-third). Vegas (I assume) uses a more flexible method. I guess we will see how that shakes out.
As for upsets this week, my simulation suggests to expect 9.2 ± 2.6 upsets this week, and specifically it likes 7 upset which I tabulate above (the same information exists in the chart above in the bottom left corner). Notably, it likes Vanderbilt over Kansas State, Memphis over UCLA, Cal over Ole Miss, and Central Michigan over Syracuse. Oddly, ESPN’s FPI, makes zero upset picks this week, which is much more in line with the trend I noticed last year. I plot this correlation below for this week. As I have stated before, the FPI essentially seems to parrot the Vegas spread. My random upset generator is considerable more bold, picking games like SMU over TCU and Louisiana Lafayette over Texas A&M. As for the specific action this week, it is a bit less interesting on the surface compared to the first 2 weeks of the season, but if we dig a little deeper, there are a few interesting games. Let’s take a closer look.
Big Ten
As in most conferences, it is a bit of a quiet week in the B1G, with 4 of the 14 teams on a bye or playing an FCS team, and 5 additional teams as 20+ point favorites. That said, I am interested to see how Michigan’s (-26) d-line handles Air Force’s cut-blocking ground attack after four quarters, and it will certainly be interesting to see how Northwestern (-23) fares against Bowling Green. As for games that are likely to be tighter, Nebraska (-15.5) and Minnesota (-8) might be tested by Northern Illinois and Middle Tennessee State respectively, but I will be more focused on Wisconsin’s trip to Utah to face BYU (+13). The Cougars do not look like quite the threat that they did 2 weeks ago, but they still might be the Badgers toughest road games all year. That leaves two Big Ten teams which are underdogs this week: Purdue (+7) at Missouri and Illinois (+16.5) at South Florida. Last week I questioned how good the Boilermakers are and their performance this week will help to answer this question. As for Illinois, their game will ultimate tell us more about South Florida, but keep in mind that last year Western Michigan’s win over the Illini helped to catapult them into an eventual berth in the Cotton Bowl.
SEC
Although it is more or less break time in most of the college football landscape this weekend, the action down south is expected to be a bit hotter. Granted, three teams are either on a bye or enjoying an FCS cupcake, and Bama and A&M are both 20+ point favorites, but the remaining 9 teams are engaged in three interesting early season conference battles and three additional non-conference games, all of which have spreads set at less than 8 points. I already mentioned Purdue’s trip to Missouri (-7). The other notable non-conference games are Kansas State’s (-3.5) trip to Nashville to face Vandy, and Ole Miss’ trip to Berkeley to face Cal (+3.5). Wait, The Rebels are going to Berkeley? What could possibly go wrong? My model like the home underdogs in both cases, and I have Missouri on upset alert. I don’t have a line on the number of fan arrests on either side for Ole Miss-Cal game. As for the conference battles, South Carolina (-7.5) will attempt to build on their early season success by hosting Kentucky. Out West, LSU has had a strong start to the season and this week they will get their first road test at Mississippi State (+6.5). It is obviously early, but my model currently likes LSU to win the SEC. But, the game I am most interested in down south is Tennessee’s trip to Florida (-5). The Gator’s took last week off due to Hurricane Irma and honestly didn’t really show up in Dallas the week before that, so it will certainly be interesting to see how they fare against a dangerous Volunteer squad. The winner will be considered the co-favorite to win the SEC East, along with Georgia and if that winner is Tennessee, it will also say a fair amount about the true quality of a certain team from Washtenaw County.
Big 12
On its face, it doesn’t look like much is going on in Big 12 land. Oklahoma and TCU are big favorites. Baylor is expected to lose at Duke (-14), Kansas is expected to lose at Ohio (-10.5), and Texas is supposed to lose at USC (-14). Just another ordinary week in the Big 12. In more positive news, K State is favored at Vanderbilt (+3.5), Texas Tech is favored vs. Arizona State (+6), and the Cyclones expect to win at Akron (+7.5) to avoid the sweep of Big 12 teams by MAC opponents (sad, but true). But, the game that I am most curious about is a match-up that I highlighted back in the summer as being surprisingly impactful on the national scale. That game is Oklahoma State’s road trip to Pitt (+10). Right now, OK State looks a little better than expected and Pitt perhaps looks a little worse. So, this game does not look as close now as it did a few weeks ago. But, at this point it looks like it still might be the Cowboy’s toughest road game, unless Texas Tech, Texas, West Virginia, or Iowa State suddenly pick things up. If OK State survives the week unscathed, much like Wisconsin, their schedule is very favorable. With Oklahoma’s win over Ohio State and with teams like Washington and USC looking a bit shaky, the eventual Big 12 Champ looks like a shoe-in for a playoff spot, and OK State is my under-the-radar sleeper. You heard it here first.
ACC
Before the Florida State / Miami game got shifted to October 7th, it looked like there would be a couple of interesting games in the ACC this week, but now there really is just one: Clemson (-2.5) at Louisville. But, it is a bit of a doozy. Last year’s game at Louisville was a thriller, and it is early enough this year that we don’t fully understand how good either team is. The winner might just emerge as the favorite to win the conference and earn a playoff berth. Other than that and the Pitt-OK State (-10) game mentioned above, it is notable that UNC is only a 7-point favorite at Old Dominion, which sounds more like a fun 2nd round NCAA basketball tournament match-up. It is never too early to start thinking about basketball…
Pac 12
I have already mentioned most of the “interesting” Pac 12 match-ups this week, which you probably already forgot because they are not actually that interesting. But, just to review they are Arizona State at Texas Tech (-6), Ole Miss at Cal (+3.5), and Texas at USC (-14). Most of the rest of the games look to be snoozers, but there are a couple notable road games against Group of Five foes. Oregon is not expected to be challenged much at Wyoming (-14), and Stanford is expected to be tested a little more at San Diego State (+7.5), but my upset special this week is UCLA at Memphis (+4.5). No Group of Five team has really made a splash yet this year, but Memphis has a chance.
Group of Five / Independents
As MSU takes it easy this week, one game the team will likely try to catch is the annual Catholic Super Bowl pitting Notre Dame (-11.5) against Boston College. Actually, Wikipedia tells me that they call this the “Holy War.” I don’t think that’s better. In any event, more game film for MSU, yeah! Elsewhere, I mentioned how both Memphis (+4.5) and more likely USF (-16.5) have opportunities to essentially plant a flag for American Athletic Conference in their games with UCLA and Illinois respectively. Hopefully for them, it will go better than Baker Mayfield’s attempt in Columbus last weekend #fieldturfishard. A win by either team significantly improves the odds of the eventual AAC champ getting a NY6 bid. As for other Group of Five teams in the running, I will have my eye on the Stanford / San Diego State (+7.5) game, the Tulsa at Toledo (-9.5) game and even the Central Michigan at Syracuse (-10.5) game. Fire up, Chips!
That is all for now. Enjoy the bye week!
National Overview and My Spreadsheet Picks
As usual, the plot above shows the opening Vegas spread compared to the projected spread from my model. My model is picking a total of 15 teams to cover this week, including several notable teams such as Michigan, Iowa, Texas A&M, TCU, Baylor, Nebraska, Oregon, Notre Dame, Minnesota, and LSU. (I should mention that I consider the model makes a cover pick when my projected spread deviates by more than 10 points from the Vegas spread, shown by the dotted lines on the chart.) Interestingly, many of these teams seem to have had surprisingly good or bad performances in either Week 1 or Week2. My model (and Vegas for that matter) at this point in the season has very little to go on, and so for some teams it is hard to know which team is the “real team.” For example, Minnesota struggled to beat Buffalo in Week 1, but crushed Oregon State in Week 2. Which Gopher team is the “real team?” My model simply is taking the average of Minnesota’s preseason ranking and performance in Week 1 and 2 (with each portion counting one-third). Vegas (I assume) uses a more flexible method. I guess we will see how that shakes out.
As for upsets this week, my simulation suggests to expect 9.2 ± 2.6 upsets this week, and specifically it likes 7 upset which I tabulate above (the same information exists in the chart above in the bottom left corner). Notably, it likes Vanderbilt over Kansas State, Memphis over UCLA, Cal over Ole Miss, and Central Michigan over Syracuse. Oddly, ESPN’s FPI, makes zero upset picks this week, which is much more in line with the trend I noticed last year. I plot this correlation below for this week. As I have stated before, the FPI essentially seems to parrot the Vegas spread. My random upset generator is considerable more bold, picking games like SMU over TCU and Louisiana Lafayette over Texas A&M. As for the specific action this week, it is a bit less interesting on the surface compared to the first 2 weeks of the season, but if we dig a little deeper, there are a few interesting games. Let’s take a closer look.
Big Ten
As in most conferences, it is a bit of a quiet week in the B1G, with 4 of the 14 teams on a bye or playing an FCS team, and 5 additional teams as 20+ point favorites. That said, I am interested to see how Michigan’s (-26) d-line handles Air Force’s cut-blocking ground attack after four quarters, and it will certainly be interesting to see how Northwestern (-23) fares against Bowling Green. As for games that are likely to be tighter, Nebraska (-15.5) and Minnesota (-8) might be tested by Northern Illinois and Middle Tennessee State respectively, but I will be more focused on Wisconsin’s trip to Utah to face BYU (+13). The Cougars do not look like quite the threat that they did 2 weeks ago, but they still might be the Badgers toughest road games all year. That leaves two Big Ten teams which are underdogs this week: Purdue (+7) at Missouri and Illinois (+16.5) at South Florida. Last week I questioned how good the Boilermakers are and their performance this week will help to answer this question. As for Illinois, their game will ultimate tell us more about South Florida, but keep in mind that last year Western Michigan’s win over the Illini helped to catapult them into an eventual berth in the Cotton Bowl.
SEC
Although it is more or less break time in most of the college football landscape this weekend, the action down south is expected to be a bit hotter. Granted, three teams are either on a bye or enjoying an FCS cupcake, and Bama and A&M are both 20+ point favorites, but the remaining 9 teams are engaged in three interesting early season conference battles and three additional non-conference games, all of which have spreads set at less than 8 points. I already mentioned Purdue’s trip to Missouri (-7). The other notable non-conference games are Kansas State’s (-3.5) trip to Nashville to face Vandy, and Ole Miss’ trip to Berkeley to face Cal (+3.5). Wait, The Rebels are going to Berkeley? What could possibly go wrong? My model like the home underdogs in both cases, and I have Missouri on upset alert. I don’t have a line on the number of fan arrests on either side for Ole Miss-Cal game. As for the conference battles, South Carolina (-7.5) will attempt to build on their early season success by hosting Kentucky. Out West, LSU has had a strong start to the season and this week they will get their first road test at Mississippi State (+6.5). It is obviously early, but my model currently likes LSU to win the SEC. But, the game I am most interested in down south is Tennessee’s trip to Florida (-5). The Gator’s took last week off due to Hurricane Irma and honestly didn’t really show up in Dallas the week before that, so it will certainly be interesting to see how they fare against a dangerous Volunteer squad. The winner will be considered the co-favorite to win the SEC East, along with Georgia and if that winner is Tennessee, it will also say a fair amount about the true quality of a certain team from Washtenaw County.
Big 12
On its face, it doesn’t look like much is going on in Big 12 land. Oklahoma and TCU are big favorites. Baylor is expected to lose at Duke (-14), Kansas is expected to lose at Ohio (-10.5), and Texas is supposed to lose at USC (-14). Just another ordinary week in the Big 12. In more positive news, K State is favored at Vanderbilt (+3.5), Texas Tech is favored vs. Arizona State (+6), and the Cyclones expect to win at Akron (+7.5) to avoid the sweep of Big 12 teams by MAC opponents (sad, but true). But, the game that I am most curious about is a match-up that I highlighted back in the summer as being surprisingly impactful on the national scale. That game is Oklahoma State’s road trip to Pitt (+10). Right now, OK State looks a little better than expected and Pitt perhaps looks a little worse. So, this game does not look as close now as it did a few weeks ago. But, at this point it looks like it still might be the Cowboy’s toughest road game, unless Texas Tech, Texas, West Virginia, or Iowa State suddenly pick things up. If OK State survives the week unscathed, much like Wisconsin, their schedule is very favorable. With Oklahoma’s win over Ohio State and with teams like Washington and USC looking a bit shaky, the eventual Big 12 Champ looks like a shoe-in for a playoff spot, and OK State is my under-the-radar sleeper. You heard it here first.
ACC
Before the Florida State / Miami game got shifted to October 7th, it looked like there would be a couple of interesting games in the ACC this week, but now there really is just one: Clemson (-2.5) at Louisville. But, it is a bit of a doozy. Last year’s game at Louisville was a thriller, and it is early enough this year that we don’t fully understand how good either team is. The winner might just emerge as the favorite to win the conference and earn a playoff berth. Other than that and the Pitt-OK State (-10) game mentioned above, it is notable that UNC is only a 7-point favorite at Old Dominion, which sounds more like a fun 2nd round NCAA basketball tournament match-up. It is never too early to start thinking about basketball…
Pac 12
I have already mentioned most of the “interesting” Pac 12 match-ups this week, which you probably already forgot because they are not actually that interesting. But, just to review they are Arizona State at Texas Tech (-6), Ole Miss at Cal (+3.5), and Texas at USC (-14). Most of the rest of the games look to be snoozers, but there are a couple notable road games against Group of Five foes. Oregon is not expected to be challenged much at Wyoming (-14), and Stanford is expected to be tested a little more at San Diego State (+7.5), but my upset special this week is UCLA at Memphis (+4.5). No Group of Five team has really made a splash yet this year, but Memphis has a chance.
Group of Five / Independents
As MSU takes it easy this week, one game the team will likely try to catch is the annual Catholic Super Bowl pitting Notre Dame (-11.5) against Boston College. Actually, Wikipedia tells me that they call this the “Holy War.” I don’t think that’s better. In any event, more game film for MSU, yeah! Elsewhere, I mentioned how both Memphis (+4.5) and more likely USF (-16.5) have opportunities to essentially plant a flag for American Athletic Conference in their games with UCLA and Illinois respectively. Hopefully for them, it will go better than Baker Mayfield’s attempt in Columbus last weekend #fieldturfishard. A win by either team significantly improves the odds of the eventual AAC champ getting a NY6 bid. As for other Group of Five teams in the running, I will have my eye on the Stanford / San Diego State (+7.5) game, the Tulsa at Toledo (-9.5) game and even the Central Michigan at Syracuse (-10.5) game. Fire up, Chips!
That is all for now. Enjoy the bye week!
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