2017, Week 3 Recap (Cornflakes: Part of an Incomplete Worldview)

In this space, I usually spend a few words reflecting on MSU’s performance this weekend, but since this week was a bye week, there is literally nothing to say about actual football. Even in the big picture, it is honestly hard to say much more about the prognosis for this season than it was back in late August. MSU looks a little better than I expected and has remained healthy. MSU has 2 wins secured already, and some of MSU’s upcoming opponents (such as Northwestern, Rutgers, and dare I say both Ohio State and Michigan) look weaker than advertised. These are all good things. But, some of MSU’s other opponents (namely Penn State, Maryland, and Indiana) look better than expected while the other three (Notre Dame, Iowa, and Minnesota) the jury is still out on for me. So, what does this all mean? Well, I decided to check the math and my spreadsheet now says that MSU is “expected” to win 5.7 games total (based on my projected spreads) which also translates to a 55% chance of winning 6 or more games and becoming Bowl eligible, which I think we all agree is the minimum expectation.  If I look back at my pre-season simulations, this is a little better than during the summer when the math said to expect 5.45 wins and gave MSU only a 48% to win 6 games. But, on the flip side, my model now only likes MSU to be favored in 2 more games this year (at Rutgers and Indiana) whereas during the summer it liked MSU to beat Maryland and nudge Iowa. MSU is now projected to be a slight underdog in both games. What does this all mean? Honestly, not a lot, as there is still too little data to make any real projections. But if nothing else, if you feel 7% better about MSU’s chances that you did at the beginning of the season, well, my computer agrees with you.

National Overview

As for the rest of the country, the chart above shows my weekly comparison of the results of each game as compared to the initial Vegas spread. As usual, it is easy to see here some of the teams that overachieved (like Penn State, Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Virginia State) the teams that underachieved (like Michigan and USC) and the main upsets for the week (like Purdue and Mississippi State’s big wins and Nebraska big choke). As for upsets, as the table below shows, there were a total of 11 Vegas upset on the year, which means the total number is finally within the range that I predicted at mid-week. My model got 5 out of 7 upset picks correct bringing the season total to a crazy 11-4 (73%). That cannot last. My historical average is around 40% correct. The model also did OK against the spread (ATS) at 26-25 (51%) and I got 8 out of 15 of my highlighted teams to cover (53%). As for the FPI, it did not make any upset picks (causing my computer to send the FPI computer a gif of a clucking chicken… or at least that is how I picture it in my head), but the FPI did go 32-19 ATS (63%). For the year, my model is oddly dead even with the FPI ATS at 72-65 (53%). As for the random upset generator (which I think from now on I will refer to as “Rand()y”) “he” got 3 out of 9 upset picks correct to bring his total to 8-17 (32%). Now, let’s take a look at the action in each conference in detail.

Big Ten

In a couple of Big Ten area codes, it was a real, real bad week. In the 217, the Illini were hoping to build on last week’s upset win over WKU and show that, like Purdue, they were a team on the rise. Well, not so much. USF was favored by 16.5, but the Bulls wound up pulling away and winning by 24. The good news is that every mid major team with NY6 Bowl aspirations is now calling Illinois’ AD and offering top dollar to get on the schedule for 2021. That’s great news for the women’s soccer team (new shoes!) In any event, at least that one was not a surprise. Meanwhile, in the 402, the Cornhusker’s did have a bad surprise, falling to Northern Illinois 21-17. Somewhere on Twitter after the game I saw someone comment to the effect that “college football needs a strong Nebraska.” Really? Do we? Come on guys. College Football “needs” Nebraska about as much as it “needs” Michigan or Ohio State or Alabama or Notre Dame which is… not at all. As was also pointed out on Twitter, 10 years ago when Texas beat USC for the National Title, no one would have believed that when the rematch finally occurred it would be a 2^nd tier broadcast while the nation was watching Clemson at Louisville. College Football does not need any specific team, because casual fans are going to watch the teams that win. Period. Right now, Nebraska is not wining, and they will likely continue to not win because they are a washed-up program with an inflated sense of self-worth in the middle of nowhere with no natural recruiting territory that likes to rotate through coaches like Kleenex. Good luck with that. Sorry dude on Twitter, you may “need” your team to be good, but let’s not make this out to be some sort of failing of college football. Your team is just bad. You are likely going to have to get used to it. Your team is nothing special. Your team is not unique, and you, Mr. Dude on Twitter, you know what you are? You’re a cornflake. Us Spartans know how to recognize said behavior because many of us are surrounded by maize-flakes. (Entitlement: part of this complete breakfast. But, ironically, also part on an incomplete world-view.)

Where was I? Ah, yes, as for the rest of the Big Ten, there were a couple of teams out there that were ~25 point favorites, yet struggled to eke out ~16-point victories, and now seem to have made a habit of not beating the spread this year. Yes, I am looking at you Iowa and Michigan. I am now looking down at MSU’s schedule and seeing that low-and-behold those also happen to be MSU’s first two Big Ten opponents. Noted. The remaining seven Big Ten teams all won comfortably. As a group, those teams won by an average score of 45 to 4, including a surprise blow-out by the Boilermakers in SEC country over Missouri. Let’s just say I am glad MSU is not the team from Michigan that will be traveling to West Lafayette next weekend. Finally, I think Minnesota got a look of Michigan’s monochromatic uniforms from Week 1 and said, “Jim Delany, hold my beer. We have an actual rodent for a mascot and he’s got a freaking birthday coming up! Wooooooooo!”

SEC

As I look through the results in the SEC this week, it is pretty much accurate to say that nothing went as planned. Yes, Bama won, but for the 2^nd straight week, the failed to cover by about 10 points. Yes, Texas A&M won big, but they actually trained the Ragin’ Cajuns at the half (which Rand()y was really excited about). And, yes both Georgia and Auburn beat FCS teams, but Auburn could only muster 24 points against Mercer. Really? Other than that it was just a Hail Mary and a bunch of upsets. Everyone likely saw the crazy finish in Gainesville. Before the game, I thought the winner would be the co-favorite to win the SEC East. Now, I just think Georgia is the favorite. As for the upsets, SEC pride swelled in Nashville as the Commodores scored their first victory over a ranked non-conference opponent in over 70 years by defeating Kansas State. Not to burst their bubble or anything, but I feel obligated to point out that even 3-9 MSU beat a ranked Notre Dame team last year. In contrast, Ole Miss and Missouri were not so fortunate against Cal and Purdue.  In conference play, South Carolina had been flying high (which is hard for a chicken) with 2 upset wins in a row, but they were brought back to earth by the Kentucky Wildcats.  Finally, in perhaps the biggest result of the weekend, Mississippi State just curb stomped LSU 37-7, meaning the Tigers didn’t even put up enough points to cover the spread. At the end of the day, I am not really sure what to make of all of this, considering that there are only a total of 5 undefeated SEC teams left, and two of them are Kentucky and Vanderbilt. But, what it probably means is that we just need to pencil in Alabama for the playoffs right now.

Pac 12

The other conference that I really don’t know what to make of is the Pac 12. In Week 1, preseason favorite USC looked bad against Western, but then comes back to beat Stanford handily in Week 2. In Week 3, the Trojans almost choke in the last minute against the left-for-dead Texas Longhorns. Meanwhile, Stanford drives down PCH to San Diego and loses. Not be outdone, UCLA goes over out to Tennessee (presumably to visit Graceland, as one does) and winds up losing to Memphis. The only team that did anything noticeably good for the conference is Cal by upsetting Ole Miss and thus securing their 2^nd upset win of this young season. Also noted.

Big 12

Going into the week, I thought that the Big 12 was shaping up to be a 3-team race between the Oklahoma schools and TCU. Going out of this week I feel exactly the same way. K-State was a possible 4^th contender, but their upset loss to Vandy suggests the boys from Manhattan are more of a pretender this year. The 3 favorites all put up 50+ points and covered easily, including OK States win over Pitt that I thought might be a lynchpin game for their entire season.  That 3-team race could very quickly reduce to a 2-team race as TCU must pay a visit to Stillwater next weekend. As for the rest of the conference, yes Texas lost, Duke beat Baylor, and Kansas lost to another MAC school. Just another normal weekend in the Big 12.

ACC

Outside of the expected losses by Boston College and Pitt to Notre Dame and OK State, respectively, it was a surprisingly strong weekend for the conference.  All the other ACC teams won their non-conference match-ups, and basically everybody covered. The only real loser for the weekend was Louisville, who got smoked by the defending champs by 26 points on their own field. In the summer, I predicted that Clemson would lose 3 conference games due to their tough road schedule, but the game at Louisville was predicted to be the toughest test. Since the Tigers passed with flying colors, I think that I have to put them right back into the mix for the playoffs.

Group of Five / Independents

Notre Dame did their job of not screwing up MSU’s potential strength of schedule numbers by running away from B.C. in the 2^nd half.  Here’s to hoping that MSU is the team running up the score next weekend. As for the Group of Five, several teams made key moves towards positioning for the NY6. In the AAC, both South Florida and Memphis scored big victories over Power 5 teams (Illinois and UCLA), which really beefs up the resume of the entire conference. At this point, the eventual AAC winner is clearly the leader for the NY6 slot.  But, San Diego State officially threw their cuacalalatli’s (google it) into the ring for consideration for a NY6 slot by beating their 2^nd Pac 12 opponent in as many weeks. But, considering the only other Mountain West team to win this week was Boise suggests that they may need a few other teams to falter in order to rise to the top of the list. Finally, things were looking a little rough there for the Toledo Rockets (likely the best remaining hope in the MAC) against Tulsa, but a 2^nd half rally and last second FG kept them at 3-0.

And so, how good is… Cal?

The preseason polls had Cal ranked anywhere from 55^th to 82nd which resulted in my simulation projecting them to expect to win only 3.2 games this year. Well, two upsets and an FCS win later and they are sitting at 3-0. How high can the Bears climb in the Pac 12 standings this year? The schedule gets tough quick with USC coming to Berkeley next weekend, but the other question that begs to be asked is: is USC any better than Ole Miss? That also begs my final question this week:

How bad is… the rest of the Pac 12?

Perhaps I am overstating this, but this is now 2 weeks in a row (at least) of lackluster to bad performance out west. Numerically, their non-conference and Power 5 winning percentages both look solid, but I do not see a lot of evidence that this league deserves a playoff berth. Outside of Cal, the conference’s only accomplishment seems to be UCLA’s huge comeback win over Texas A&M, which was quickly followed by an upset loss to a AAC team.  A word of advice: I would wait on buying Rose Bowl tickets this year fellas.

OK, that’s all for now, but a preview of Week 4 is coming soon to an internet connection near you. Enjoy!