MSU is back in action this weekend and honestly, it is kind of a big deal. It’s a night game in Spartan stadium, with lots of recruits in the house, on national TV, with the stadium striped, against a rival who also happens to be one of the storied programs in college football (at least in their minds). If nothing else, the winner gets to keep the Megaphone for almost a decade, and I would be lying if I said I don’t care about that. I want the freaking Megaphone. It is nice, and I like to have nice things. For better or worse, both teams also seem to be at a bit of a cross roads. The two teams combined for only 7 wins last year, and while some (stupid people) question MSU's ability to stay relevant in the Big Ten East, a lot more people question if Brian Kelly should even be coaching in South Bend. MSU is probably the team that will want to win the game more, as it would make a strong statement that the dumpster fire of a season last year is solidly in the rear-view mirror and that MSU will remain a force in the Big Ten as long as Mark Dantonio is on the sidelines. In contrast, a loss in this game would hurt the Irish more. Dantonio and co. built up enough political capital that just a bowl game appearance with a young team will be satisfactory this year. Kelly is not so lucky. He is going to need to do better than that to stay employed, and starting the season 2-2 is going to be a problem. So which is more important, the drive to win or the fear of loss? I will let you, good reader, decide that. As for the x’s and o’s stuff, I once again am comforted by the fact that Notre Dame does not have a dynamic passing attack and that their defense is giving up 18 points per game to even bad teams. Some were impressed by Notre Dame’s dominance of B.C, but don’t forget that Wake Forest beat the Eagles by only a slightly smaller margin the week prior. At the end of the day, I must fall back on what Vegas says, which is that the Irish are favored by 3.5 points, which means the odds are roughly 40-60. Considering I am naturally an optimist, I gotta say I like those odds.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above shows my models picks for Week 4 plotted against the opening Vegas spread. My model this week likes 7 teams to cover (Maryland, Louisville, Tennessee, Houston, Miami (FL), Auburn, and Texas A&M), 1 team not to cover (Alabama!?!), and 5 upsets, including a surprising upset special of Colorado over Washington along with Kentucky over Florida, Miss St over Georgia, Arizona over Utah and Miami (OH) over Central. You would not necessarily expect it by glancing at the schedule, but there are actually a ton of games with tight spreads this week. 40% of the games have a spread set below a touchdown. As such, my new friend Rand()y (the random number generator) suggests to expect 12.4 ± 2.9 upsets this week. The table below summarizes my model’s upset picks in comparison to ESPN’s FPI and Rand()y. Bizarrely, the FPI actually likes more upsets (6) than my model does (5), including the Mississippi State upset, which is one of the games with a bigger spreads (-6.5). It must have taken notice that I called it out last week for being a cyber-chicken. For those that might be curious, I also include below a plot of the expected probability distribution of upsets this week, which does appear to be more “normal” this week.
Big 10
In B1G land this week, 4 teams are on a bye and 2 teams are expecting to win in blow-out fashion. Specifically, Indiana (-22.5) and Ohio State (-39.5) draw Georgia Southern and UNLV, respectively who are both teams in the bottom 30 of the FBS. But, the other five games look a bit more interesting. Rutgers must travel to Lincoln to face the Cornflakes, but they are “only” 13.5 point underdogs. That may seem like a lot, but for Rutgers against a Power 5 team not named Kansas or Baylor, that is almost as good as being favored. If the Scarlet Knights pull this off, Nebraska might be politely traded back to the Big 12 for Kansas (hey, at least they bring a good hoops program). Also in non-conference play, in addition to Notre Dame at MSU (+3.5), Maryland will play host to Central Florida (+3.5). My model likes Maryland by 22, but Vegas obviously isn’t so confident. Considering both teams combined have only played 2 games against FBS opponents, perhaps some healthy skepticism is warranted. Still, I am really curious to see if the Terps are for real, and on the flip side a win by UCF puts them on track to maybe even compete for the AAC Title and NY6 berth. In conference play, both games are quite compelling as B1G East “powers” Penn State and Michigan hit the road to face Iowa (+11) and Purdue (+9) respectively. I think if 4 weeks ago a time traveler would have told you the Purdue-Michigan game would be the one with the tighter spread, you would have assumed that either the entire Michigan defense had been arrested for trashing a resort (plausible) or that Iowa City was struck by a meteor (unlikely). I am not sure that I am quite ready to issue an upset alert for either team, but we all know how tough it is to play in Kinnick Stadium and many of us have seen Michigan’s offense attempt to operate. Just remember, if you are trying to predict the score of the game in West Lafayette this weekend, make sure Michigan’s point total is divisible by 3.
Big 12
I have poked a lot of fun at how bad the Big 12 is for a couple of years now. But once again this week, I find that they have one of the most important games of the entire weekend when TCU visits Oklahoma State (-10.5). Even though we are early in the season, the Big 12 is shaping up to be a 3-team race with 2 of those teams being the participants in this game. Superficially, both teams have similar resumes as they both have 2 wins over cupcakes, one win over a mediocre Power 5 team, and have an average margin of victory of over 30 points. As for me, I have to go with the Cowboys here, if nothing else because I like to walk around my house shouting, “I’m a man! I’m 40!” #teammullet. Elsewhere on the Great Plains, I am sure in August the Oklahoma (-25.5) at Baylor game looked intriguing, but now? Not so much. In contrast, the West Virginia (-20) game at Kansas never looked intriguing. So, that leaves us with Texas Tech at Houston (-5.5). Even though Tom Herman left town last year, Houston still might be the second-best team from Texas that will play multiple Big 12 teams this year.
SEC
Conference play is in full swing down south this weekend, and while there are no obvious clash-of-the-Titans contests on the schedule, there are a few worth talking about. The headline match in my opinion is Mississippi State’s road trip to Athens, GA to face the (other) Bulldogs. Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite, but both my model and the ESPN FPI were impressed enough with “MSU’s” performance last week to officially issue an upset alert. Considering the game is an East-West cross-over certainly lowers its impact a tick, and a loss would not hurt either team significantly, but an MSU win would raise some eyebrows. It’s early, but I should also note that Alabama has to travel to Starkville this year. Speaking of Bama, they also have an inter-sectional road game this week to Nashville to face Vandy (-18.5). I don’t expect the Tide to drop this one, but my model has not been impressed with them for two weeks now and lists them as only a 1.7-point favorite. Hmmmm. Back in the East, Florida (-2.5) must travel to Lexington to face Kentucky. I was surprised to see the Gators as such a narrow favorite, but my model went farther and picked the Wildcats in this once. Double hmmmm. Finally, Arkansas faces Texas A&M (-3) in Jerry World in a game that is expected to be close. The winner of this game is certainly not significantly closer to a West Division Title, but the loser’s fans can start investigating tickets to the Belk Bowl.
Pac 12
Conference action is also in full swing out west with a total of five conference contests on the schedule. While it is tempting to say the UCLA’s road trip to Stanford (-6.5) is the best game of the weekend, my eyes will be elsewhere. Last week, I questioned if Cal was perhaps the only good team in the whole conference. Well, the Bears are 15-point home dogs to the USC this week, so I suppose that I will get my answer. I at least expect Berkeley to cover. I am also quite interested to see Washington (-10) tangle with Colorado. The Huskies have yet to look great this year, and my model has noticed. It actually picks the Buffs to win by 10 here, and if this comes to pass, the rest of Colorado’s schedule looks pretty reasonable to me. They even draw USC at home. Will my recap post be asking the question: how good is Colorado? Finally, my model also likes Utah (+3) to upset Arizona in the desert.
ACC
Last (and also least) this week is the ACC. While there are several games with narrow spreads this week, such as Duke (-2.5) at UNC and Pitt at GA Tech (-6.5), I don’t expect those games to impact much more than the conference’s lower tier bowl placements, and early bragging rights for basketball season. So, the only real game of consequence is NC State’s road trip to Florida State (-11.5). With both teams off to a bit of a disappointing start, neither team is going to want to earn that 2nd loss, and the loser seems unlikely to be able to challenge any further for the Division crown. I am also a little interested to see Miami (FL) take on Toledo (+12.5) as the Hurricanes are my preseason Coastal Division favorites, but have yet to face an FBS opponent yet this year, ironically, due to actual hurricanes.
Independents / Group of Five
While we know what the Irish will be up to this weekend, what about the Group of Five? Conference action is starting to heat up with the group of five teams as well this week. In the AAC, current (presumed) leader in the NY6 clubhouse, South Florida, is expected to have a reasonably easy time hosting Temple (+17.5). Meanwhile, both Houston (-5.5 vs. Texas Tech) and UCF (+3.5 at Maryland) are hoping to build on their resumes by notching a victory over a Power 5 team, and Navy (-10.5) is hoping to stay undefeated by beating Cincinnati. Last week San Diego State made a statement by beating Stanford to stay undefeated and this week they travel up into the mountains to face Air Force (+4.5). Will the Aztecs look better than Michigan did against the Falcons last week? Boise State has been flying a bit under radar so far this year, but this week they will get a shot at beating another Power 5 team as they host Virginia (+13). I still think Boise’s schedule is too tough for them to make the NY6, but a win here would help the cause. Finally, in MACtion there are a couple of fun conference match-ups, including Ohio at EMU (-2) and Miami (OH) at Central (-2.5), but the aforementioned Toledo game at Miami (FL) [-12.5] is probably the most important game for the conference. A Toledo upset sets them up to possibly run the table in the MAC and claim the NY6 bid with an impressive non-conference Power 5 win. But, a loss really leaves the conference without a clear contender, unless Eastern Michigan can somehow win out (including a win over Kentucky in a few weeks) but even then some chaos in the AAC and a toe-stubbing by the MWest would likely both be needed. EMU in the Peach Bowl? Wouldn’t that be something!
That’s all for this week. Enjoy the game under the lights and let’s hope the rivalry trophy case isn’t empty come Sunday morning.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above shows my models picks for Week 4 plotted against the opening Vegas spread. My model this week likes 7 teams to cover (Maryland, Louisville, Tennessee, Houston, Miami (FL), Auburn, and Texas A&M), 1 team not to cover (Alabama!?!), and 5 upsets, including a surprising upset special of Colorado over Washington along with Kentucky over Florida, Miss St over Georgia, Arizona over Utah and Miami (OH) over Central. You would not necessarily expect it by glancing at the schedule, but there are actually a ton of games with tight spreads this week. 40% of the games have a spread set below a touchdown. As such, my new friend Rand()y (the random number generator) suggests to expect 12.4 ± 2.9 upsets this week. The table below summarizes my model’s upset picks in comparison to ESPN’s FPI and Rand()y. Bizarrely, the FPI actually likes more upsets (6) than my model does (5), including the Mississippi State upset, which is one of the games with a bigger spreads (-6.5). It must have taken notice that I called it out last week for being a cyber-chicken. For those that might be curious, I also include below a plot of the expected probability distribution of upsets this week, which does appear to be more “normal” this week.
Big 10
In B1G land this week, 4 teams are on a bye and 2 teams are expecting to win in blow-out fashion. Specifically, Indiana (-22.5) and Ohio State (-39.5) draw Georgia Southern and UNLV, respectively who are both teams in the bottom 30 of the FBS. But, the other five games look a bit more interesting. Rutgers must travel to Lincoln to face the Cornflakes, but they are “only” 13.5 point underdogs. That may seem like a lot, but for Rutgers against a Power 5 team not named Kansas or Baylor, that is almost as good as being favored. If the Scarlet Knights pull this off, Nebraska might be politely traded back to the Big 12 for Kansas (hey, at least they bring a good hoops program). Also in non-conference play, in addition to Notre Dame at MSU (+3.5), Maryland will play host to Central Florida (+3.5). My model likes Maryland by 22, but Vegas obviously isn’t so confident. Considering both teams combined have only played 2 games against FBS opponents, perhaps some healthy skepticism is warranted. Still, I am really curious to see if the Terps are for real, and on the flip side a win by UCF puts them on track to maybe even compete for the AAC Title and NY6 berth. In conference play, both games are quite compelling as B1G East “powers” Penn State and Michigan hit the road to face Iowa (+11) and Purdue (+9) respectively. I think if 4 weeks ago a time traveler would have told you the Purdue-Michigan game would be the one with the tighter spread, you would have assumed that either the entire Michigan defense had been arrested for trashing a resort (plausible) or that Iowa City was struck by a meteor (unlikely). I am not sure that I am quite ready to issue an upset alert for either team, but we all know how tough it is to play in Kinnick Stadium and many of us have seen Michigan’s offense attempt to operate. Just remember, if you are trying to predict the score of the game in West Lafayette this weekend, make sure Michigan’s point total is divisible by 3.
Big 12
I have poked a lot of fun at how bad the Big 12 is for a couple of years now. But once again this week, I find that they have one of the most important games of the entire weekend when TCU visits Oklahoma State (-10.5). Even though we are early in the season, the Big 12 is shaping up to be a 3-team race with 2 of those teams being the participants in this game. Superficially, both teams have similar resumes as they both have 2 wins over cupcakes, one win over a mediocre Power 5 team, and have an average margin of victory of over 30 points. As for me, I have to go with the Cowboys here, if nothing else because I like to walk around my house shouting, “I’m a man! I’m 40!” #teammullet. Elsewhere on the Great Plains, I am sure in August the Oklahoma (-25.5) at Baylor game looked intriguing, but now? Not so much. In contrast, the West Virginia (-20) game at Kansas never looked intriguing. So, that leaves us with Texas Tech at Houston (-5.5). Even though Tom Herman left town last year, Houston still might be the second-best team from Texas that will play multiple Big 12 teams this year.
SEC
Conference play is in full swing down south this weekend, and while there are no obvious clash-of-the-Titans contests on the schedule, there are a few worth talking about. The headline match in my opinion is Mississippi State’s road trip to Athens, GA to face the (other) Bulldogs. Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite, but both my model and the ESPN FPI were impressed enough with “MSU’s” performance last week to officially issue an upset alert. Considering the game is an East-West cross-over certainly lowers its impact a tick, and a loss would not hurt either team significantly, but an MSU win would raise some eyebrows. It’s early, but I should also note that Alabama has to travel to Starkville this year. Speaking of Bama, they also have an inter-sectional road game this week to Nashville to face Vandy (-18.5). I don’t expect the Tide to drop this one, but my model has not been impressed with them for two weeks now and lists them as only a 1.7-point favorite. Hmmmm. Back in the East, Florida (-2.5) must travel to Lexington to face Kentucky. I was surprised to see the Gators as such a narrow favorite, but my model went farther and picked the Wildcats in this once. Double hmmmm. Finally, Arkansas faces Texas A&M (-3) in Jerry World in a game that is expected to be close. The winner of this game is certainly not significantly closer to a West Division Title, but the loser’s fans can start investigating tickets to the Belk Bowl.
Pac 12
Conference action is also in full swing out west with a total of five conference contests on the schedule. While it is tempting to say the UCLA’s road trip to Stanford (-6.5) is the best game of the weekend, my eyes will be elsewhere. Last week, I questioned if Cal was perhaps the only good team in the whole conference. Well, the Bears are 15-point home dogs to the USC this week, so I suppose that I will get my answer. I at least expect Berkeley to cover. I am also quite interested to see Washington (-10) tangle with Colorado. The Huskies have yet to look great this year, and my model has noticed. It actually picks the Buffs to win by 10 here, and if this comes to pass, the rest of Colorado’s schedule looks pretty reasonable to me. They even draw USC at home. Will my recap post be asking the question: how good is Colorado? Finally, my model also likes Utah (+3) to upset Arizona in the desert.
ACC
Last (and also least) this week is the ACC. While there are several games with narrow spreads this week, such as Duke (-2.5) at UNC and Pitt at GA Tech (-6.5), I don’t expect those games to impact much more than the conference’s lower tier bowl placements, and early bragging rights for basketball season. So, the only real game of consequence is NC State’s road trip to Florida State (-11.5). With both teams off to a bit of a disappointing start, neither team is going to want to earn that 2nd loss, and the loser seems unlikely to be able to challenge any further for the Division crown. I am also a little interested to see Miami (FL) take on Toledo (+12.5) as the Hurricanes are my preseason Coastal Division favorites, but have yet to face an FBS opponent yet this year, ironically, due to actual hurricanes.
Independents / Group of Five
While we know what the Irish will be up to this weekend, what about the Group of Five? Conference action is starting to heat up with the group of five teams as well this week. In the AAC, current (presumed) leader in the NY6 clubhouse, South Florida, is expected to have a reasonably easy time hosting Temple (+17.5). Meanwhile, both Houston (-5.5 vs. Texas Tech) and UCF (+3.5 at Maryland) are hoping to build on their resumes by notching a victory over a Power 5 team, and Navy (-10.5) is hoping to stay undefeated by beating Cincinnati. Last week San Diego State made a statement by beating Stanford to stay undefeated and this week they travel up into the mountains to face Air Force (+4.5). Will the Aztecs look better than Michigan did against the Falcons last week? Boise State has been flying a bit under radar so far this year, but this week they will get a shot at beating another Power 5 team as they host Virginia (+13). I still think Boise’s schedule is too tough for them to make the NY6, but a win here would help the cause. Finally, in MACtion there are a couple of fun conference match-ups, including Ohio at EMU (-2) and Miami (OH) at Central (-2.5), but the aforementioned Toledo game at Miami (FL) [-12.5] is probably the most important game for the conference. A Toledo upset sets them up to possibly run the table in the MAC and claim the NY6 bid with an impressive non-conference Power 5 win. But, a loss really leaves the conference without a clear contender, unless Eastern Michigan can somehow win out (including a win over Kentucky in a few weeks) but even then some chaos in the AAC and a toe-stubbing by the MWest would likely both be needed. EMU in the Peach Bowl? Wouldn’t that be something!
That’s all for this week. Enjoy the game under the lights and let’s hope the rivalry trophy case isn’t empty come Sunday morning.
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