Spartan fans have had to deal with a lot of sudden changes over the past 24 months or so: a football playoff blowout, a historic (in a bad way) March basketball upset, followed by a summer and fall of tragedy. The 2016 season came with the hope of reloading. After that glorious night in South Bend, the Spartan rivalry trophy case was full, and another march to Indy seemed attainable. Then, everything changed, maybe not suddenly, but definitively. After a historic (also in a bad way) Big Ten campaign, the Spartans limped into the off-season only to experience scandal and a different type of human tragedy which ultimately led to a sudden change in MSU’s roster. As we fast forward to the 2017 season, things were rolling a bit in East Lansing. Perhaps things had changed for the better. The Spartans were starting to show glimpses of those same old Spartans (in a good way) that had risen to top of the Big Ten at the beginning of the current decade. And for one last time (in all likelihood) in the Dantonio tenure, the Fighting Irish were once again coming to town, and we seemed ready to show the rest of the nation that MSU was back and ready for prime time once again. But, alas, it was not meant to be. I think we pretty much all knew that MSU would need to avoid mistakes and win the QB battle to have a shot at victory, and that, of course, did not happen. The turning point was obviously the goal line fumble which wiped 7 points off the board and led to the MSU defense needing to face up to the adversity of this sudden change situation. But on Saturday night that adversity was too much, and the Spartan defense wilted. Sudden change. For me, this was, by far, the most disappointing part of the whole game. I agree with others that point out that MSU actually outgained the Irish and generally were not dominated in any individual match-ups. This give me hope that we will see the type of bounce back season that we all hoped for. There is talent on this team, and through three games, that talent still seems healthy. Furthermore, the mistakes and weird bad luck seem unlikely to continue. But, the team must learn to face up to adversity and survive the sudden change. Perhaps it was too much to ask of a young team and perhaps this loss was the necessary evil needed to catalyze growth. After all, even Kirk Cousins threw a 4th quarter red zone pick in South Bend in his sophomore year, and Conner Cook didn’t even get pilot the final drive in South Bend in 2013. These things seem to happen when the Irish and Spartans get together. So, as the eternal optimist, I still think things will be OK for this team. But, for now, that rival trophy case is now empty. The Big Ten season is up next, and the team is still 0-0 in conference play. So, it is time to start fresh and hopefully time to start repopulating those cases in the Duffy Daugherty Building.
National Overview
As for the rest of the country, as usual, the chart above shows my weekly comparison of the results of each game as compared to the initial Vegas spread. A couple teams that I thought might struggle this week (namely Alabama and Washington) were some of the biggest winners against the spread (ATS), while teams like Tennessee, Oklahoma, and LSU failed to cover badly. But, at least they didn’t choke completely like a couple of teams did (I am mostly looking at you, Maryland, Boise, Oregon, and Oklahoma State). As for upsets, the table below also summarizes the 12 total upsets that occurred this week, the total number of which my simulation nailed exactly. But, that was not the only good news for chaos, as my random number generating pal, Rand()y, got 6 of his 12 upset picks correct, which is way better than my actual model (1 for 5) or the FPI (1 for 6). My model was a lackluster 27-29 ATS and only 4 for 10 on teams to cover, while the FPI was 30-26. The FPI is now a few games ahead of my model ATS, but it actually doing worse than Rand()y at picking upsets. So, basically, it was a bad to crappy weekend all the way around. Oh, and did I mention that I went to grad school at Purdue? Stupid Boilermakers. I ask very little of you guys, really.
Also, just for completeness I will mention that I did not initially realize that the UCONN-East Carolina game got moved to Sunday from later in the season due to the AAC drastic schedule shuffle in wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. So, I did not include that game in my initial simulations or in the chart or table, but as it turns out my model actually did correctly predict the ECU upset. So, I am going to go ahead and add that to my overall results. Now, let’s take a closer look at the action in each conference.
Big Ten
As a bit of a change, it would be a pretty tough sell to claim that the Big Ten had a good week. MSU got blown out in the marquee non-conference match-up, Maryland suffered the biggest upset of the weekend at the hands of Central Florida (in terms of actual margin of victory vs. the spread), Nebraska couldn’t cover against Rutgers, and neither could Ohio State or Penn State in their games. Michigan eventually covered against Purdue, but they trailed at half time and as I listened to the radio broadcast of that game on my drive to East Lansing, I thought I was going to need to rush ship an edible arrangement made of Prozac to the Wolverine broadcast booth just to get those guys home OK. When the most positive sign of the whole weekend is that Indiana covered nicely against a Sun Belt team, I think the conference had a rough week. That all said, I think the three teams with the biggest new question marks are Maryland, Iowa, and Penn State. Was the Twerps Week 1 win just a fluke? Same Old Twerps? Since they are still on the schedule, I would be OK with that. Is Iowa really that good? The total stat line suggests some fool’s gold there, but if there are pretty good, I don’t really want to know right now. Finally, and conversely, do I need to suddenly change my opinion of Penn State? Are they just not quite as good as I thought? I am not sure how I feel about that topic as my two favorite teams are MSU and whoever else in the East is good enough to keep Michigan out of Indianapolis, and I am not sure if the Buckeyes are up to the task. Ugh.
Big 12
Just when I thought I had the Big 12 all figured out, this weekend happened, and suddenly I need to change my opinion here as well. I had convinced myself that OK State was the dark horse that was poised to upset Oklahoma and grab a surprise playoff slot. But, the Cowboys got bit hard by a band of Horned Frogs from Dallas, and once again the conference race looks wide open. To complicate matters, Oklahoma allowed 41 points to Baylor and thus failed to cover by 18. On the bright side, Texas Tech “upset” Houston and garnered just a little but more conference respect. It looks more and more like a Big 12 playoff spot is in the cards for late 2017.
SEC
After Week 2, I was wondering if LSU was the SEC dark horse, and then they got blitzed by Mississippi State and followed that up this week with an underwhelming performance again SoRrY exCUSE. After Week 3, I thought Mississippi State was the new potential dark horse, and then they traveled to Athens and were mauled by UGA. After both Weeks 2 and Week 3, I thought Bama perhaps looked vulnerable, and then this week they crushed the Commodores in Nashville 59-0. So, the landscape has changed a bit. In the SEC West, Auburn suddenly looks like the most viable competition to surging Bama with their convincing win over Missouri, and the Tigers get to host the Iron Bowl this year. That said, Auburn already lost to Clemson and it is not like beating Missouri is all that hard (right, Purdue?) Out East, it suddenly looks like the Georgia Bulldogs are going to run away with the division title, as Florida, Tennessee, and South Carolina all failed to cover and pretty much looked bad in the process. The Gamecocks and Vols managed to beat LA Tech and UMass respectively by only 5 combined points, which is truly “impressive” considering UMass was ranked dead last in the FBS by Lindy’s in the preseason, and is currently 0-4 with loses to Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion (SEC! SEC! SEC!...)
Pac 12
This was the week when I thought the Pac 12 standings might just get blown up, setting the stage for a fun free-for-all out west. But, at the end of Week 4 things are settling in to pretty much the expected order. I put both USC and Washington on upset alert this weekend, but both teams passed their tests against Cal and Colorado respectively with flying colors, and beating a Berkeley student on a test is generally pretty tough. In the north, Washington State survived an easier test vs. Nevada to stay undefeated. Stanford was able to end their 2-game skid with a bounce back win over UCLA and looks to also stay in the race. But, Oregon’s division title hopes took a major hit in the desert as the Sun Devils nipped the Ducks by 2, making it the biggest upset of the weekend. Down south, I had also put the Utes on upset alert against Rich Rod’s desert Wildcats, but Utah came out up top and emerged as the remaining undefeated team in the conference. Can the Utes challenge USC for the division crown? Now that would be a change.
ACC
After a fashion, it was a bit of a quiet week in the ACC. During my drive to East Lansing last weekend, when I was not listening to the Michigan-Purdue game, I was following a couple of ACC match-ups. At one point around half-time Clemson was tied with Boston College and Miami (FL) was trailing Toledo. But, something must have changed suddenly as both teams won going away. Speaking of going away, Florida State’s chances of a great season seem to have left the building. After getting spanked by Alabama in Week 1, losing their starting QB for the year, and surviving Mother Nature, the Seminoles got beat by NC State this weekend to fall to 0-2. The Atlantic Division seems to be Clemson’s for the taking. But elsewhere there are several ACC teams that are quietly doing some good things in the background. Virginia traveled up to Boise and hammered the Broncos 42-23 on their own black and blue turf. Virginia Tech crushed Old Dominion 38-0 and now sits at 4-0. Duke kicked the Heal’s butts and also sit at 4-0. Wake Forest also made it to 4-0 by beating Appalachian State. Even Syracuse beat the spread against LSU. I am not sure if it is appreciated nationally, but the middle to bottom of the ACC looks a bit stronger than usual this year.
Independents / Group of Five
I must admit, I kind of wrote off Notre Dame a little coming into this weekend’s match-up. But, after seeing them live and also seeing what Georgia did to Mississippi State, I have repented and now believe the Irish are going to rack up a fair number of wins. My model actually has the Irish currently favored in all their remaining games with a 15% chance of running the table and a 50% chance of finishing with at least 10 wins. They might need Georgia to win the SEC Title to pull it off, but a playoff bid is still a possibility. As for the Group of Five, all of a sudden this looks like a one-horse race with that horse being the America Athletic Conference. The AAC still has 4 undefeated teams left (USF, Memphis, Navy, and UCF) and have already racked up an impressive list of Power 5 upsets (4 total, for those scoring at home), the most recent of which was the Knight’s beat down of Maryland. Meanwhile, the MAC lost perhaps their last best chance of scoring a marquee upset when Miami (FL) outlasted the Rockets of Toledo this weekend. In the Mountain West, Boise laid an egg on the own field this week and now only San Diego State seems to have any shot at all at the NY6 bid. The Aztecs edged Air Force this weekend to remain the only undefeated team in the conference
How good is... TCU?
I must admit that I was fulling expecting to use this space to ask the question, "How good is Oklahoma State?" But considering the Frogs beat the Cowboys by 13 points this week to run their record to 4-0, it seems appropriate in some Harry Potter Elder Wand and/or Highlander way to instead shift my focus to them. TCU has been flying a bit under the radar thus far, with two of their victories at the expense of Jackson State and SMU, but in addition to OK State, they also racked up an impressive SEC win over Arkansas in Week 2 by a score of 28-7. Furthermore, my power rankings currently having them checking in at #6, a full 3 slots ahead of Oklahoma. The Horned Frog's schedule is a bit tricky with road games still remaining at Kansas State and at Oklahoma, but especially after the Sooner's less than impressive week, I have to wonder, can TCU make the playoffs? I think just maybe they can.
How bad is... Boise State?
It is not like most prognosticators had penciled Boise into even the NY6 this year, but we are kind of used to seeing the Broncos as a legit force to be reckoned with on the national scale. In Week 2, Boise fell short at Washington State, and although the game was close, this more-or-less signaled that Boise would most likely not earn the Group of Five NY6 bid this year. Boise was not exactly dominant in their games against Troy State and New Mexico, but things took rather dramatic turn south for the Broncos this weekend as the Virginia Cavaliers made the trip up to the blue field and put the hurt on them by a score of 42-23. From what I saw, it was not even that close. Now, Boise has to sit on the bye week at 2-2, likely wondering if they can even compete in the Mountain West in a down year for the conference. My model now predicts an expected value of only 7.3 wins for Boise, and if 7-5 does come to pass, it will be their lowest win total since 1998.
That’s all I have for this week, so as always, enjoy!
National Overview
As for the rest of the country, as usual, the chart above shows my weekly comparison of the results of each game as compared to the initial Vegas spread. A couple teams that I thought might struggle this week (namely Alabama and Washington) were some of the biggest winners against the spread (ATS), while teams like Tennessee, Oklahoma, and LSU failed to cover badly. But, at least they didn’t choke completely like a couple of teams did (I am mostly looking at you, Maryland, Boise, Oregon, and Oklahoma State). As for upsets, the table below also summarizes the 12 total upsets that occurred this week, the total number of which my simulation nailed exactly. But, that was not the only good news for chaos, as my random number generating pal, Rand()y, got 6 of his 12 upset picks correct, which is way better than my actual model (1 for 5) or the FPI (1 for 6). My model was a lackluster 27-29 ATS and only 4 for 10 on teams to cover, while the FPI was 30-26. The FPI is now a few games ahead of my model ATS, but it actually doing worse than Rand()y at picking upsets. So, basically, it was a bad to crappy weekend all the way around. Oh, and did I mention that I went to grad school at Purdue? Stupid Boilermakers. I ask very little of you guys, really.
Also, just for completeness I will mention that I did not initially realize that the UCONN-East Carolina game got moved to Sunday from later in the season due to the AAC drastic schedule shuffle in wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. So, I did not include that game in my initial simulations or in the chart or table, but as it turns out my model actually did correctly predict the ECU upset. So, I am going to go ahead and add that to my overall results. Now, let’s take a closer look at the action in each conference.
Big Ten
As a bit of a change, it would be a pretty tough sell to claim that the Big Ten had a good week. MSU got blown out in the marquee non-conference match-up, Maryland suffered the biggest upset of the weekend at the hands of Central Florida (in terms of actual margin of victory vs. the spread), Nebraska couldn’t cover against Rutgers, and neither could Ohio State or Penn State in their games. Michigan eventually covered against Purdue, but they trailed at half time and as I listened to the radio broadcast of that game on my drive to East Lansing, I thought I was going to need to rush ship an edible arrangement made of Prozac to the Wolverine broadcast booth just to get those guys home OK. When the most positive sign of the whole weekend is that Indiana covered nicely against a Sun Belt team, I think the conference had a rough week. That all said, I think the three teams with the biggest new question marks are Maryland, Iowa, and Penn State. Was the Twerps Week 1 win just a fluke? Same Old Twerps? Since they are still on the schedule, I would be OK with that. Is Iowa really that good? The total stat line suggests some fool’s gold there, but if there are pretty good, I don’t really want to know right now. Finally, and conversely, do I need to suddenly change my opinion of Penn State? Are they just not quite as good as I thought? I am not sure how I feel about that topic as my two favorite teams are MSU and whoever else in the East is good enough to keep Michigan out of Indianapolis, and I am not sure if the Buckeyes are up to the task. Ugh.
Big 12
Just when I thought I had the Big 12 all figured out, this weekend happened, and suddenly I need to change my opinion here as well. I had convinced myself that OK State was the dark horse that was poised to upset Oklahoma and grab a surprise playoff slot. But, the Cowboys got bit hard by a band of Horned Frogs from Dallas, and once again the conference race looks wide open. To complicate matters, Oklahoma allowed 41 points to Baylor and thus failed to cover by 18. On the bright side, Texas Tech “upset” Houston and garnered just a little but more conference respect. It looks more and more like a Big 12 playoff spot is in the cards for late 2017.
SEC
After Week 2, I was wondering if LSU was the SEC dark horse, and then they got blitzed by Mississippi State and followed that up this week with an underwhelming performance again SoRrY exCUSE. After Week 3, I thought Mississippi State was the new potential dark horse, and then they traveled to Athens and were mauled by UGA. After both Weeks 2 and Week 3, I thought Bama perhaps looked vulnerable, and then this week they crushed the Commodores in Nashville 59-0. So, the landscape has changed a bit. In the SEC West, Auburn suddenly looks like the most viable competition to surging Bama with their convincing win over Missouri, and the Tigers get to host the Iron Bowl this year. That said, Auburn already lost to Clemson and it is not like beating Missouri is all that hard (right, Purdue?) Out East, it suddenly looks like the Georgia Bulldogs are going to run away with the division title, as Florida, Tennessee, and South Carolina all failed to cover and pretty much looked bad in the process. The Gamecocks and Vols managed to beat LA Tech and UMass respectively by only 5 combined points, which is truly “impressive” considering UMass was ranked dead last in the FBS by Lindy’s in the preseason, and is currently 0-4 with loses to Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion (SEC! SEC! SEC!...)
Pac 12
This was the week when I thought the Pac 12 standings might just get blown up, setting the stage for a fun free-for-all out west. But, at the end of Week 4 things are settling in to pretty much the expected order. I put both USC and Washington on upset alert this weekend, but both teams passed their tests against Cal and Colorado respectively with flying colors, and beating a Berkeley student on a test is generally pretty tough. In the north, Washington State survived an easier test vs. Nevada to stay undefeated. Stanford was able to end their 2-game skid with a bounce back win over UCLA and looks to also stay in the race. But, Oregon’s division title hopes took a major hit in the desert as the Sun Devils nipped the Ducks by 2, making it the biggest upset of the weekend. Down south, I had also put the Utes on upset alert against Rich Rod’s desert Wildcats, but Utah came out up top and emerged as the remaining undefeated team in the conference. Can the Utes challenge USC for the division crown? Now that would be a change.
ACC
After a fashion, it was a bit of a quiet week in the ACC. During my drive to East Lansing last weekend, when I was not listening to the Michigan-Purdue game, I was following a couple of ACC match-ups. At one point around half-time Clemson was tied with Boston College and Miami (FL) was trailing Toledo. But, something must have changed suddenly as both teams won going away. Speaking of going away, Florida State’s chances of a great season seem to have left the building. After getting spanked by Alabama in Week 1, losing their starting QB for the year, and surviving Mother Nature, the Seminoles got beat by NC State this weekend to fall to 0-2. The Atlantic Division seems to be Clemson’s for the taking. But elsewhere there are several ACC teams that are quietly doing some good things in the background. Virginia traveled up to Boise and hammered the Broncos 42-23 on their own black and blue turf. Virginia Tech crushed Old Dominion 38-0 and now sits at 4-0. Duke kicked the Heal’s butts and also sit at 4-0. Wake Forest also made it to 4-0 by beating Appalachian State. Even Syracuse beat the spread against LSU. I am not sure if it is appreciated nationally, but the middle to bottom of the ACC looks a bit stronger than usual this year.
Independents / Group of Five
I must admit, I kind of wrote off Notre Dame a little coming into this weekend’s match-up. But, after seeing them live and also seeing what Georgia did to Mississippi State, I have repented and now believe the Irish are going to rack up a fair number of wins. My model actually has the Irish currently favored in all their remaining games with a 15% chance of running the table and a 50% chance of finishing with at least 10 wins. They might need Georgia to win the SEC Title to pull it off, but a playoff bid is still a possibility. As for the Group of Five, all of a sudden this looks like a one-horse race with that horse being the America Athletic Conference. The AAC still has 4 undefeated teams left (USF, Memphis, Navy, and UCF) and have already racked up an impressive list of Power 5 upsets (4 total, for those scoring at home), the most recent of which was the Knight’s beat down of Maryland. Meanwhile, the MAC lost perhaps their last best chance of scoring a marquee upset when Miami (FL) outlasted the Rockets of Toledo this weekend. In the Mountain West, Boise laid an egg on the own field this week and now only San Diego State seems to have any shot at all at the NY6 bid. The Aztecs edged Air Force this weekend to remain the only undefeated team in the conference
How good is... TCU?
I must admit that I was fulling expecting to use this space to ask the question, "How good is Oklahoma State?" But considering the Frogs beat the Cowboys by 13 points this week to run their record to 4-0, it seems appropriate in some Harry Potter Elder Wand and/or Highlander way to instead shift my focus to them. TCU has been flying a bit under the radar thus far, with two of their victories at the expense of Jackson State and SMU, but in addition to OK State, they also racked up an impressive SEC win over Arkansas in Week 2 by a score of 28-7. Furthermore, my power rankings currently having them checking in at #6, a full 3 slots ahead of Oklahoma. The Horned Frog's schedule is a bit tricky with road games still remaining at Kansas State and at Oklahoma, but especially after the Sooner's less than impressive week, I have to wonder, can TCU make the playoffs? I think just maybe they can.
How bad is... Boise State?
It is not like most prognosticators had penciled Boise into even the NY6 this year, but we are kind of used to seeing the Broncos as a legit force to be reckoned with on the national scale. In Week 2, Boise fell short at Washington State, and although the game was close, this more-or-less signaled that Boise would most likely not earn the Group of Five NY6 bid this year. Boise was not exactly dominant in their games against Troy State and New Mexico, but things took rather dramatic turn south for the Broncos this weekend as the Virginia Cavaliers made the trip up to the blue field and put the hurt on them by a score of 42-23. From what I saw, it was not even that close. Now, Boise has to sit on the bye week at 2-2, likely wondering if they can even compete in the Mountain West in a down year for the conference. My model now predicts an expected value of only 7.3 wins for Boise, and if 7-5 does come to pass, it will be their lowest win total since 1998.
That’s all I have for this week, so as always, enjoy!
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