During the summer, I think a lot of MSU fans correctly
surmised that this late September portion of the schedule would likely be the
fulcrum that would ultimately decide whether the 2017 version of the Spartans
would wind up on the pleasant or unpleasant side of 6 wins. MSU had a great
opportunity to make a resounding statement last week against the Irish, but
mistakes and turnovers derailed that train early on and that opportunity was
lost. Now, with the Iowa Hawkeyes coming to town, that opportunity arises once
again, only this time, the stakes are much, much higher. First, it is a
conference game and the conference standings matter. Losing to the Irish
sucked, but it ultimately cost MSU very little in the big picture. But, most
importantly, the way the schedule breaks down, I would wager that the result of
this game will ultimately determine or at least forecast the eventual destiny
of this team. So, in other words, this is a very, very big game. Right now, my
model has MSU with only a 37% chance of making a bowl game. Those numbers will
change dramatically based on this game. If MSU wins, this number will almost
certain jump over 50%, and I think it will stay there. But, if MSU loses, the
Spartans will be sitting at 2-2 and will have 3 of the next 4 on the road before
the early November double feature of playing Penn State and Ohio State back-to-back.
Even if we project that MSU will win the last two games vs. Maryland and at
Rutgers (and if you don’t, I suggest going ahead and making plans over the
holidays now) MSU needs to find a way to win 2 of the next 7 games, and this
week’s game is likely the 2nd most winnable (with vs. Indiana at #1 and
at Northwestern being the next most likely). The margin of error shrinks to
roughly zero with a loss this weekend.
I will leave it to others to discuss the x’s and o’s of this
match-up, but I will say Vegas is much more optimistic about MSU’s chances than
my spreadsheet is. Vegas opened with MSU as a 2.5-point favorite, with the
spread climbing, while my model likes Iowa by 5.5 (and ESPN’s FPI likes Iowa by
3.5.) Even considering the best case of the Vegas spread, MSU’s probability of
victory is 57%. So, the stakes are high, and the odds are just OK, but this is
a chance at a new beginning. Did MSU learn enough from the mistakes of the
first 3 games to have a potential breakthrough? The 2013 team after a rough,
rough September did, and they just happened to open the Big Ten season that
year at Iowa. Many have also speculated
that the 2009 night game vs. Iowa set the tone for the success MSU experienced
over the next several years. When MSU and Iowa get together, it seems to have
impact, and this year will be no different. Oh, and did I mention that Saturday
will be my birthday? I remember the last time MSU played a home game on my
birthday, and that was a cold, rainy homecoming game in 2006 against a seeming
hapless Illinois squad led by a freshman QB named Juice Williams. MSU lost that
game, and soon after that John L Smith lost his job. At the time, I thought it
was a pretty crappy birthday gift, but that loss helped to usher in the
Dantonio era, so I guess sometimes you need to wait awhile for the gift to
arrive. That, ultimately, is my birthday wish for this week’s game: that,
regardless of who scores the most points after 60 minutes, it will build the
foundation of the next great wave of successful for MSU’s football program.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above compares the opening spread this
week to my model’s predicted results. In
general, the plot looks a little more “well behaved” this week with the
majority of my spreadsheet’s picks coming within 10 points of the Vegas line.
But, it does like 6 teams to cover (Bama, SMU, UNLV, FIU, UCF, and Georgia) and
2 teams not to (Wyoming and Kansas State).
As for upset, the random number generator suggests to look for 12.5 ±
3.0 upsets this week, and a 50% chance of between 11 and 14 upsets, each with
roughly equal likelihood based on the histogram shown below. The spreadsheet likes 7 upsets this week
including Colorado over UCLA, Wake over FSU, Duke over Miami, Illinois over
Nebraska, and (gulp) Iowa over MSU. The FPI has gone timid again such that it
only likes 4 upsets, one of which is Akron over BGSU which opened as -1 for
BGSU and since flipped to +2.5. Oh, and
the FPI also likes Iowa. Stupid computers.
Never fear, though, as Rand()y likes MSU and instead has some bold picks
this week including Syracuse over NC State and New Mexico State over Arkansas.
That won’t really happen… will it? (Because that would be HILLARIOUS)
Big Ten
As I look through the line up in the Big Ten this week, it
is not surprising that the MSU-Iowa game was selected as the highlighted 4 PM
Fox timeslot. There is only one other game on the schedule with a spread under
ten points, and that is Nebraska (-6) at Illinois, a game so exciting that I
have already blocked it out of my mind. Of the presumed Big Ten contenders,
only Ohio State has to go on the road, and that is at Rutgers (+29). Penn State
hosts Indiana (+18) which might get interesting, I guess. Similarly, out west Wisconsin
hosts Northwestern (+13), and Maryland (+10.5) travels to Minneapolis. If
either of those games were on the road, I would be much more curious, but as I
see it, expect a quiet weekend.
ACC
In contrast, the ACC seems to be the place with the most
intriguing action this weekend. The obvious choice is the ABC night game where
Clemson (-5.5) travels to Blacksburg to face the Hookies. There are a total of
five undefeated ACC teams remaining and Clemson and VA Tech are two of them. During
the summer, I picked this game as a problem for the Tigers and one of the
reasons Clemson would not win the ACC. Well, I said the same thing about the
Louisville – Clemson game a few weeks ago, yet the Tigers are still undefeated.
As it turns out, two of the other five undefeated teams will also face each
other this weekend as Miami (-4.5) visits Duke. The winner here will get a
major boost in the Coastal Division race, especially is VA Tech goes down to
Clemson. Interestingly, Duke has actually played twice as many games as the Hurricanes
(due to actual hurricanes) which makes you wonder if the Blue Devils might be
further ahead (or much further ahead) developmentally. My model thinks so (as
does the FPI), as both picked Duke in the upset. As for the final undefeated
team in the ACC, believe it or not, it is Wake Forest who gets a chance to host
(believe or not) winless Florida State (-7). So, it is fully possible (and my
spreadsheet favors this scenario) that Wake Forest will exit the weekend at 5-0
and FSU will be 0-3. With the two Florida schools being a pint short of
experience and both on the road is certainly the recipe for a fun weekend.
Pac 12
Now that the original Pac 12 favorites, USC and Washington,
seem to have hit their stride, the analysis of the conference seems a bit more
straightforward. While the Huskies are not expected to be challenged at Oregon
State (+28) this weekend, the Trojans have a very tricky road game in Pullman against
Washington State (+4). Now, this is a cross-division match-up so even if USC
loses, they still very much control their own destiny in the South, but for the
Cougars, it is a major opportunity to firmly place themselves in the thick of
the overall conference race. That said, with the current 4-team play-off
structure, taking one loss in September means your margin of error is
essentially zero going forward and the Pac 12 is certainly not a shoe-in to
grab one of those four slots, especially since the Big 12 looks to be back from
the dead this year. As for other
interesting games out West this week, Colorado visits UCLA (-7) and the loser
will drop to 0-2 and will almost certainly be out of the conference race. My
model again likes Colorado for the upset special. Finally, Cal is a 15-point
dog to Oregon and similar to the UCLA-Colorado game, the loser will drop to
0-2. Sorry, Berkeley, I guess beating an
SEC team isn’t enough to get respect from Vegas when one has to travel to
Nike-land, even though the Ducks are coming off a loss.
SEC
Down south this week all eyes are on Georgia as the now prohibitive
favorite in the East after last week’s beat-down of MSU South. This week the
Bulldogs will make the drive north to Rocky Top to face the Volunteers. UGA is
a 6.5-point favorite, and my model likes them to cover easily, but this just
feels like the kind of game Georgia will somehow choke away, doesn’t it? Also
out East, Vandy is still licking their wounds from last weekend’s massacre at
the hands of Bama and now must travel to Florida (-9.5). Somehow, the Gators
are 2-0 and have a really manageable SEC schedule, but they seem to be living
on borrowed time. Will the Commodores be the ones to knock them down? Out West,
Bama is expected to cruise vs. Ole Miss (+28) this weekend, and Auburn looks to
keep pace in facing Mississippi State (+9.5). MSU South is still a bit of a
mystery to me so far this year, and despite last week’s beat down, I think this
spread might be a bit too large.
Finally, Texas A&M is technically still tied for first place in the
SEC West and they host South Carolina (+8) this week. The Aggies certainly can’t
afford a loss if they plan to stay in the race.
Big 12
If was just a matter of time before there was a total
snoozer of a weekend on the Great Plains, and that weekend has arrived.
Oklahoma and TCU are both on a bye and Oklahoma State is at Texas Tech (+11)
which is only slighter harder. The only other two games are Baylor at K-State
(-14) and Texas at Iowa State (+4) and let’s be serious, the nation will only
be hate-watching those games to see if the Texas schools will continue to lose.
Independents / Group of Five
Notre Dame is once more back on track to being relevant (you’re
welcome, you filthy megaphones stealing bastards) and is not likely to be
challenged by Miami (OH) [+23] this week. In the AAC, USF (-24) is a big
favorite at East Carolina, but three other AAC teams have intriguing challenges
this week. Navy is undefeated with a tricky road trip to Tulsa (+3) this
weekend. Most consider the Midshipmen to be an unlikely choice to win the conference,
but their boat with certainly sink with a loss this weekend (as the FPI
expects). The more important match-up is the recently rescheduled tussle featuring
Memphis at to UCF (-3). While Vegas seems excited about UCF’s big win over
Maryland last weekend, let’s not forget that Memphis actually beat UCLA in Week
3, and in the pre-season were considered a much stronger squad. Finally, I am
still keeping my eye on San Diego State in the Mountain West and the Aztecs
(-12) host Northern Illinois this weekend. Somewhere, near Lincoln, NE an
entire fan-base felt a tremor in the force, like awaking from a nightmare, only
to realize that yes, they actually did lose to a MAC team two weeks ago.
That’s all for now. Enjoy!
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