Michigan Week. Depending on the exact flavor of MSU fan that you are, it is either the most anticipated or most dreaded week of the year. If it were up to me, I would have this game played in late October every year, roughly in Week 6 of the Big Ten schedule, and not in Week 6 of the overall season. I am planning to attend the game this year, and it looks like a t-shirt and possibly a rain coat might be in order. I prefer to wear a nice thick sweatshirt to the game, or even better, a thick winter coat like I had to back in 1995 as 4th quarter snow fell gently into Spartan Stadium and Tony Banks dropped some bombs into the Michigan secondary. That was the first and only victory over Michigan that I saw in person as a student at MSU, and it will remain one of my favorite memories of my time on campus. Fortunately, Mark Dantonio has given us a whole lot more memories since he returned in 2007, and for better or for worse, the next chapter of memories are about to be forged this Saturday night at the Big House.
Now, I could go on and on for thousands if not tens of thousands of words about my disdain for the University of Michigan. I could talk about the weird cult-like or perhaps Stockholm-Syndrome-like group-think that their fan-base seems to always engage in. I could talk about the weird culture of disrespect that seems to permeate the campus and has spawned the equally weird concept of “The Michigan Man” as some sort of superior human being. I could talk about how over-rated the academics are there, and how weird it gets when a lowly Spartan such as myself has the audacity to even suggest such a blasphemous concept. I could talk about the weird, circus-like way that they run their athletic department. Weird. They are just plain weird. Now, don’t get me wrong, weird is not necessarily a bad thing. But, when everything listed above gets baked in together for a century or so, the result is a steaming pile of arrogance, elitism, and over-confidence that is annoying at best and insufferable at the worst. Based on my 40+ years of scientific observation, my conclusion is that the only cure for the "Michigan Man Disease" is a steady and continuous dose of humility, and the easiest way to achieve that is for all Wolverine sports teams to lose every single sports contest that they participate in until further notice. I think a century just might do the trick. Now, for all you Wolverine fans out there, don’t take this personally. Some of you are still good people. It is just that you are good people despite the University of Michigan and not because of it. The fact that I wish your team loses every game, every week, in every sport is not a reflection on you, it is a reflection on the circus-trash institution itself. Losing is like medicine. It’s like a vaccine. It might hurt a little or upset your stomach, but it is the only way to truly get better. In the end, I just want what’s best for you and for all of us. So, think about it this way: an MSU wins this weekend would not just be a win for the Green and White, it would be a win for the state, the Big Ten, and frankly, for AMERICA, not to put too fine a point on it.
As for the game itself, I always start with what the Vegas spread says. According to the source that I use, the spread opened at 12-points for the bad guys, which translates to a 20% chance of an MSU upset. But, I can’t help but wonder if anybody really knows how this game is going to go down. Even going into the season, there were a huge number of question marks on both sidelines. Both teams are young. One team had a stable coaching staff, a decade or so of high-level success, and a smattering of proven talent at a few key positions. The other team has a coaching staff that had been together for a 1-2 years, led by a man with a possible un-diagnosed personality disorder, has experienced a decade of average to poor performance on the heels of roughly 60 years of underachievement, and a smattering of proven talent at a few key positions. Oh, and that second team also had winged helmets and some teenagers that some dudes on the internet think can play football. Naturally, the powers that be decided that since Team A was coming off a bad season, they were likely to be bad for the foreseeable future, and that Team B was probably going to be awesome (winged helmets!!!). OK, sure.
From where I sit, I don’t see any reason to strongly pick one team over the other. Sure, Michigan is at home and MSU is returning to the scene of the crime in 2015. You would think that this factor alone would motivate Big Blue to bring their A game, but the problem is, culturally, they almost can’t. Ironically, the very same unjustified arrogance that makes them “Michigan Men” in the first place also tells them that MSU is beneath them (no matter how many times we beat them) and that OSU is the only rivalry that they need to get up for. Acknowledging that MSU is worthy of needing to try hard to beat is tantamount to showing respect, and that simply is not going to happen. It is not is their nature. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball are several dozen boys from Michigan and Ohio that just want to stomp the Wolverines into the ground. Advantage MSU.
In addition, MSU is now playing with house money. After last week’s win, MSU seems solidly headed in the right direction, which is back to being over 0.500 and back to a bowl game. But, the fact of the matter is, there are three Big Ten teams on the schedule that essentially no one expected MSU to beat back in the summer. This Saturday’s opponent is one of them. So, MSU has very little to lose. At the very worst, MSU will still have won 7 of the last 10 against UofM, and will still need to win 3 of the remaining 5 "winnable" games to get to bowl eligibility. That is essentially what we all expect anyway. An MSU loss would only fuel the desire to get better and to build again towards a rematch next year in East Lansing, where almost all the players will be back. In contrast, the Wolverines will be only incrementally closer to a that elusive Division Title. UofM would have simply beaten a rebuilding MSU team, just as everyone predicted. Break out the leather gloves for the polite golf clap.
BUT, in that 20% (or higher?) realm of probability where MSU wins, the situation is much different. Dantonio would have won 2 of 3 from Harbuagh, twice in Ann Arbor, and run the record to 8 of the last 10. At 2-0 in the Big Ten and 4-1 overall, MSU's young team just might start to believe that they can compete for the Division Title. If MSU can win in Ann Arbor, where else can they win? Columbus? Could MSU compete with Penn State? All of a sudden, the sky might appear to be the limit. On the other side, Michigan’s chances of competing for the Division Title would plummet and their fan base would need to deal with the high probability of once again watching on TV as OSU or PSU (or maybe even MSU?) plays in Indy on that first weekend in December for the Big Ten Title. At some point, the University brass would have to think hard about all that money they are throwing at football, only to finish 3rd (or worse) in the division. Perhaps most importantly, your average 16-yr old recruit might start to think, “I don’t get all this hype about Michigan. I don’t remember them ever being good. I mean, not really.” In the back of their little brains, Michigan fans might actually begin to realize that the reason for MSU’s ascent over the past decade had little to nothing to do with who was on their sideline; but it had everything to do with who was on MSU’s sideline, and Dantonio is still there. So, I think this game is the true definition of low risk, high reward.
As for actual football stuff, I honestly can’t tell you who is going to win. I just don’t think we have enough data. If MSU turns the ball over or if Lewerke were to get injured (which is, by far, my biggest concern), yeah, MSU likely is going to lose, perhaps even badly. If UofM’s D-line dominates play, which certainly could happen, it could be a long day for the Spartans. But, do we actually know if UofM’s front seven is any better than Iowa’s? If O’Korn suddenly has a career game, yeah, that could be a problem. But what evidence do we have that this is at all likely? Is UofM’s offense any better than Iowa’s? I certainly am not sure that it is. But, what if MSU continues to grow on last week’s success? What if UofM comes out rusty from the bye week? What if MSU’s O-line gels and starts to get stuff going on the ground? What if Lewerke finds another grove in his rhythm? If all or even some of these things happen, there could be a lot of sad Wolverine faces come Sunday morning. Honestly, I am not sure if MSU's list of things that need to go right is longer than Michigan's. 20%? I am not a gambler, but I kind of like those odds, especially when I just playing with house money.
So, that was only about 1,500 words. I will count that as the first win of the weekend.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above shows my spreadsheet’s picks this week relative to the opening Vegas spread, but there is a subtle change to my algorithm . In September, there simply is not enough data points for my model to make any sort of accurate prediction. In mathematical terms, my recursive formula to minimize error and optimize the “power index” for each team doesn’t converge. In order to solve this problem, I pin each team's power index to a value that I derive from the consensus preseason rankings. But, at some point around 5-6 weeks into the season, there is enough data that I can remove the safety net and go fully “unbiased.” So, this week’s picks are the first of the year that do not consider the preseason rankings. But, as a result, they seem a bit more scattered than usual. As such, the spreadsheet likes a whole bunch of teams to cover/not cover (like 25), including Kentucky, Auburn, Notre Dame, Penn State, TCU, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas to cover and (oddly) Ohio State and Wisconsin not to. The simulation of the week suggests to expect 13.2 ± 2.9 upsets, while the spreadsheet likes only 7, most notably Virginia over Duke, Oregon over Washington State, and Pitt over Syracuse. The spreadsheet pretty much agrees with Vegas on the spread for the MSU-UofM game at 13.9. As the table below shows, Rand()y wouldn't even help a brother out with a homer pick this week. I might have the unplug the desktop for an evening as punishment. (No electrons for you!) The FPI is a little more bold this week and likes 6 total upsets. It is going to have to hit on a couple of those if it wants to stay ahead of Rand()y for the year.
Big Ten
Other than the obvious big game in Ann Arbor this weekend, on paper it looks like a quiet week in the Big Ten. Sure, the Minnesota at Purdue (+1.5) game is supposed to be close, but it is likely only going to decide who gets eliminated from the Big Ten West race this week and who must wait until next week. Maryland (+30) must travel to Ohio State, and that is likely going to be uglier that a UofM frat party at a Northern Michigan resort. Illinois at Iowa (-18)? Unless the Hawkeyes are (perhaps literally) hungover, it should not be close. Now, the other two games, those might be worth keeping an eye on, kind of like you might want to keep an eye on that trench-coat wearing UofM football player if you are in law enforcement. Penn State must travel to Evanston to face the Wildcats (+14) while Wisconsin makes to trek to Lincoln to face the Cornhuskers (+13.5). Interestingly, while both games have almost an identical spread, my spreadsheet likes PSU in a huge blowout (~30 points) while it only likes the Badgers by a narrow margin (2 points). I am not sure what to make of that, but road dogs are always dangerous, and Nebraska actually looked competent last week, so you never know.
ACC
If you are looking for some non-Paul Bunyan related action this weekend, the ACC looks to be the place to find it. There are a total of four games with spreads under 4 points. None of those games involve Clemson, however, as the Tigers (-21.5) are heavy favorites at home vs. Wake Forest. Of the four tight games on the schedule, the most important one is likely Louisville (-1) at NC State. With Clemson already beating Louisville and VA Tech, NC State looks like they might be the only challenger left in the Atlantic Division with a realistic shot. If the Cardinals win, Clemson can likely book their hotels in Orlando in early December. A close second on the list is the rescheduled in-state clash of Miami (FL) at Florida State, which by my source opened as a pick’em. If the Seminoles win, I suppose they can technically remain in the race for the Atlantic Division, while if the Canes win, Miami emerges as the clear favorite in the Coastal Division. If nothing else, FSU on paper is clearly their toughest road game, yet my spreadsheet likes Miami by 17, almost as much as intoxicated Gary Moeller liked to punch police officers. To round out the close games, Duke is only a 2.5 favorite at Virginia and my spreadsheet like the upset here. If the Cavaliers do win, their schedule sets up nicely for a hot streak. Finally Pitt is a 3.5 point dog on the road at [stops to clean glasses]... Syracuse? Really? Come on Pat! My spreadsheet likes the Panthers by 8.
Pac 12
In continuing with the trend, out west this week also features three games with a spread under 7. That said, the two favorites, USC and Washington, are not in any of those three games and instead face Oregon State (+34) and Cal (+27) respectively, both at home. Washington State wants to think that there are now contenders after last week's big win over USC, but they are only a 1-point favorite in Eugene this weekend, and my spreadsheet likes the Ducks, almost as much as Frank Clark likes to steal laptops. Utah is surprisingly the only Pac 12 South team without a loss and it will be tough to stay that way as Stanford (-4.5) is coming to town. Finally, good news everyone! Either Arizona or Colorado is mathematically assured to pick up their first conference win this weekend, and Vegas is betting on the Buffs (-6.5).
SEC
Down south this week the action seems a bit more subdued. Alabama does have to make the trip to College Station to face A&M (+25.5), but that one is not expected to be close. Neither is Ole Miss's visit to Auburn (-20). Georgia's encounter with Vandy (+14) is expected to be a bit closer, but not by much. So, that pretty much leaves LSU's road trip to Florida (-4.5) as the game of the week. Somehow, Florida is still undefeated and somehow LSU hasn't fired any coaches yet, so this game has that weird air of impeding disaster. It is sort of like watching a drunk Red Berenson approach the library. Who knows what might happen next? Finally, I suppose the Arkansas at South Carolina (+2) game is technically a tighter spread, but let's be serious, I doubt even Brett Bielema's mom is going to watch that one.
Big 12
Last and least interesting this week is the Big 12 (welcome back guys! the "least relevant" slot missed you!) Oklahoma is looking to cruise past Iowa State (+26.5) this week and OK State is on a bye. TCU does have a sneaky-tricky game perhaps vs. West Virginia (+12), but I would be pretty surprised by an upset here. My spreadsheet likes TCU by 35, which is about as much as Kelvin Grady likes to sell weed. So, the game to watch in the Central Time Zone this week looks to be K-State at Texas (-5.5). After the Week 1 debacle at the hands of Maryland (which is odd since Turtles don't really have hands) Texas may have actually figured some things out. Vegas clearly thinks that they are better than Kansas State, and my model agrees by a lot (-22). A win this weekend would build confidence as the Longhorns hit a tough stretch where they face the Oklahoma schools back-to-back. Did we count them out too quickly?
Independents / Group of Five
On paper, Notre Dame’s road trip to Chapel Hill this weekend seemed like it could be trouble back in the summer, but the Tarheels (+16.5) are off to a dreadful 1-4 start and now only 2-3 wins total seems likely. If nothing else, Notre Dame has a lot of experience going to chapel, so I except UNC to be asking for mercy by half time. As for the weekly NY6 watch, it looks to be a quiet week. In the AAC, USF is on a bye and UCF is a 14-point favorite at Cincinnati. There is little more promise for intrigue in the AAC West, as current favorite Navy (-10) gets to host Air Force. It should also be noted that both SMU and Houston are undefeated in league play, but only one still will be by Sunday as the Mustangs must make that three and a half hour drive down I-45 to face the Cougars (-8.5). Let the record show that my spreadsheet has the Cougars on upset alert. Finally, San Diego State will look to keep pace with the AAC with their match-up with Fresno State (+14.5).
That's all I have for now, so as always, Go State, Beat Michigan!
Now, I could go on and on for thousands if not tens of thousands of words about my disdain for the University of Michigan. I could talk about the weird cult-like or perhaps Stockholm-Syndrome-like group-think that their fan-base seems to always engage in. I could talk about the weird culture of disrespect that seems to permeate the campus and has spawned the equally weird concept of “The Michigan Man” as some sort of superior human being. I could talk about how over-rated the academics are there, and how weird it gets when a lowly Spartan such as myself has the audacity to even suggest such a blasphemous concept. I could talk about the weird, circus-like way that they run their athletic department. Weird. They are just plain weird. Now, don’t get me wrong, weird is not necessarily a bad thing. But, when everything listed above gets baked in together for a century or so, the result is a steaming pile of arrogance, elitism, and over-confidence that is annoying at best and insufferable at the worst. Based on my 40+ years of scientific observation, my conclusion is that the only cure for the "Michigan Man Disease" is a steady and continuous dose of humility, and the easiest way to achieve that is for all Wolverine sports teams to lose every single sports contest that they participate in until further notice. I think a century just might do the trick. Now, for all you Wolverine fans out there, don’t take this personally. Some of you are still good people. It is just that you are good people despite the University of Michigan and not because of it. The fact that I wish your team loses every game, every week, in every sport is not a reflection on you, it is a reflection on the circus-trash institution itself. Losing is like medicine. It’s like a vaccine. It might hurt a little or upset your stomach, but it is the only way to truly get better. In the end, I just want what’s best for you and for all of us. So, think about it this way: an MSU wins this weekend would not just be a win for the Green and White, it would be a win for the state, the Big Ten, and frankly, for AMERICA, not to put too fine a point on it.
As for the game itself, I always start with what the Vegas spread says. According to the source that I use, the spread opened at 12-points for the bad guys, which translates to a 20% chance of an MSU upset. But, I can’t help but wonder if anybody really knows how this game is going to go down. Even going into the season, there were a huge number of question marks on both sidelines. Both teams are young. One team had a stable coaching staff, a decade or so of high-level success, and a smattering of proven talent at a few key positions. The other team has a coaching staff that had been together for a 1-2 years, led by a man with a possible un-diagnosed personality disorder, has experienced a decade of average to poor performance on the heels of roughly 60 years of underachievement, and a smattering of proven talent at a few key positions. Oh, and that second team also had winged helmets and some teenagers that some dudes on the internet think can play football. Naturally, the powers that be decided that since Team A was coming off a bad season, they were likely to be bad for the foreseeable future, and that Team B was probably going to be awesome (winged helmets!!!). OK, sure.
From where I sit, I don’t see any reason to strongly pick one team over the other. Sure, Michigan is at home and MSU is returning to the scene of the crime in 2015. You would think that this factor alone would motivate Big Blue to bring their A game, but the problem is, culturally, they almost can’t. Ironically, the very same unjustified arrogance that makes them “Michigan Men” in the first place also tells them that MSU is beneath them (no matter how many times we beat them) and that OSU is the only rivalry that they need to get up for. Acknowledging that MSU is worthy of needing to try hard to beat is tantamount to showing respect, and that simply is not going to happen. It is not is their nature. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball are several dozen boys from Michigan and Ohio that just want to stomp the Wolverines into the ground. Advantage MSU.
In addition, MSU is now playing with house money. After last week’s win, MSU seems solidly headed in the right direction, which is back to being over 0.500 and back to a bowl game. But, the fact of the matter is, there are three Big Ten teams on the schedule that essentially no one expected MSU to beat back in the summer. This Saturday’s opponent is one of them. So, MSU has very little to lose. At the very worst, MSU will still have won 7 of the last 10 against UofM, and will still need to win 3 of the remaining 5 "winnable" games to get to bowl eligibility. That is essentially what we all expect anyway. An MSU loss would only fuel the desire to get better and to build again towards a rematch next year in East Lansing, where almost all the players will be back. In contrast, the Wolverines will be only incrementally closer to a that elusive Division Title. UofM would have simply beaten a rebuilding MSU team, just as everyone predicted. Break out the leather gloves for the polite golf clap.
BUT, in that 20% (or higher?) realm of probability where MSU wins, the situation is much different. Dantonio would have won 2 of 3 from Harbuagh, twice in Ann Arbor, and run the record to 8 of the last 10. At 2-0 in the Big Ten and 4-1 overall, MSU's young team just might start to believe that they can compete for the Division Title. If MSU can win in Ann Arbor, where else can they win? Columbus? Could MSU compete with Penn State? All of a sudden, the sky might appear to be the limit. On the other side, Michigan’s chances of competing for the Division Title would plummet and their fan base would need to deal with the high probability of once again watching on TV as OSU or PSU (or maybe even MSU?) plays in Indy on that first weekend in December for the Big Ten Title. At some point, the University brass would have to think hard about all that money they are throwing at football, only to finish 3rd (or worse) in the division. Perhaps most importantly, your average 16-yr old recruit might start to think, “I don’t get all this hype about Michigan. I don’t remember them ever being good. I mean, not really.” In the back of their little brains, Michigan fans might actually begin to realize that the reason for MSU’s ascent over the past decade had little to nothing to do with who was on their sideline; but it had everything to do with who was on MSU’s sideline, and Dantonio is still there. So, I think this game is the true definition of low risk, high reward.
As for actual football stuff, I honestly can’t tell you who is going to win. I just don’t think we have enough data. If MSU turns the ball over or if Lewerke were to get injured (which is, by far, my biggest concern), yeah, MSU likely is going to lose, perhaps even badly. If UofM’s D-line dominates play, which certainly could happen, it could be a long day for the Spartans. But, do we actually know if UofM’s front seven is any better than Iowa’s? If O’Korn suddenly has a career game, yeah, that could be a problem. But what evidence do we have that this is at all likely? Is UofM’s offense any better than Iowa’s? I certainly am not sure that it is. But, what if MSU continues to grow on last week’s success? What if UofM comes out rusty from the bye week? What if MSU’s O-line gels and starts to get stuff going on the ground? What if Lewerke finds another grove in his rhythm? If all or even some of these things happen, there could be a lot of sad Wolverine faces come Sunday morning. Honestly, I am not sure if MSU's list of things that need to go right is longer than Michigan's. 20%? I am not a gambler, but I kind of like those odds, especially when I just playing with house money.
So, that was only about 1,500 words. I will count that as the first win of the weekend.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above shows my spreadsheet’s picks this week relative to the opening Vegas spread, but there is a subtle change to my algorithm . In September, there simply is not enough data points for my model to make any sort of accurate prediction. In mathematical terms, my recursive formula to minimize error and optimize the “power index” for each team doesn’t converge. In order to solve this problem, I pin each team's power index to a value that I derive from the consensus preseason rankings. But, at some point around 5-6 weeks into the season, there is enough data that I can remove the safety net and go fully “unbiased.” So, this week’s picks are the first of the year that do not consider the preseason rankings. But, as a result, they seem a bit more scattered than usual. As such, the spreadsheet likes a whole bunch of teams to cover/not cover (like 25), including Kentucky, Auburn, Notre Dame, Penn State, TCU, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas to cover and (oddly) Ohio State and Wisconsin not to. The simulation of the week suggests to expect 13.2 ± 2.9 upsets, while the spreadsheet likes only 7, most notably Virginia over Duke, Oregon over Washington State, and Pitt over Syracuse. The spreadsheet pretty much agrees with Vegas on the spread for the MSU-UofM game at 13.9. As the table below shows, Rand()y wouldn't even help a brother out with a homer pick this week. I might have the unplug the desktop for an evening as punishment. (No electrons for you!) The FPI is a little more bold this week and likes 6 total upsets. It is going to have to hit on a couple of those if it wants to stay ahead of Rand()y for the year.
Other than the obvious big game in Ann Arbor this weekend, on paper it looks like a quiet week in the Big Ten. Sure, the Minnesota at Purdue (+1.5) game is supposed to be close, but it is likely only going to decide who gets eliminated from the Big Ten West race this week and who must wait until next week. Maryland (+30) must travel to Ohio State, and that is likely going to be uglier that a UofM frat party at a Northern Michigan resort. Illinois at Iowa (-18)? Unless the Hawkeyes are (perhaps literally) hungover, it should not be close. Now, the other two games, those might be worth keeping an eye on, kind of like you might want to keep an eye on that trench-coat wearing UofM football player if you are in law enforcement. Penn State must travel to Evanston to face the Wildcats (+14) while Wisconsin makes to trek to Lincoln to face the Cornhuskers (+13.5). Interestingly, while both games have almost an identical spread, my spreadsheet likes PSU in a huge blowout (~30 points) while it only likes the Badgers by a narrow margin (2 points). I am not sure what to make of that, but road dogs are always dangerous, and Nebraska actually looked competent last week, so you never know.
ACC
If you are looking for some non-Paul Bunyan related action this weekend, the ACC looks to be the place to find it. There are a total of four games with spreads under 4 points. None of those games involve Clemson, however, as the Tigers (-21.5) are heavy favorites at home vs. Wake Forest. Of the four tight games on the schedule, the most important one is likely Louisville (-1) at NC State. With Clemson already beating Louisville and VA Tech, NC State looks like they might be the only challenger left in the Atlantic Division with a realistic shot. If the Cardinals win, Clemson can likely book their hotels in Orlando in early December. A close second on the list is the rescheduled in-state clash of Miami (FL) at Florida State, which by my source opened as a pick’em. If the Seminoles win, I suppose they can technically remain in the race for the Atlantic Division, while if the Canes win, Miami emerges as the clear favorite in the Coastal Division. If nothing else, FSU on paper is clearly their toughest road game, yet my spreadsheet likes Miami by 17, almost as much as intoxicated Gary Moeller liked to punch police officers. To round out the close games, Duke is only a 2.5 favorite at Virginia and my spreadsheet like the upset here. If the Cavaliers do win, their schedule sets up nicely for a hot streak. Finally Pitt is a 3.5 point dog on the road at [stops to clean glasses]... Syracuse? Really? Come on Pat! My spreadsheet likes the Panthers by 8.
Pac 12
In continuing with the trend, out west this week also features three games with a spread under 7. That said, the two favorites, USC and Washington, are not in any of those three games and instead face Oregon State (+34) and Cal (+27) respectively, both at home. Washington State wants to think that there are now contenders after last week's big win over USC, but they are only a 1-point favorite in Eugene this weekend, and my spreadsheet likes the Ducks, almost as much as Frank Clark likes to steal laptops. Utah is surprisingly the only Pac 12 South team without a loss and it will be tough to stay that way as Stanford (-4.5) is coming to town. Finally, good news everyone! Either Arizona or Colorado is mathematically assured to pick up their first conference win this weekend, and Vegas is betting on the Buffs (-6.5).
SEC
Down south this week the action seems a bit more subdued. Alabama does have to make the trip to College Station to face A&M (+25.5), but that one is not expected to be close. Neither is Ole Miss's visit to Auburn (-20). Georgia's encounter with Vandy (+14) is expected to be a bit closer, but not by much. So, that pretty much leaves LSU's road trip to Florida (-4.5) as the game of the week. Somehow, Florida is still undefeated and somehow LSU hasn't fired any coaches yet, so this game has that weird air of impeding disaster. It is sort of like watching a drunk Red Berenson approach the library. Who knows what might happen next? Finally, I suppose the Arkansas at South Carolina (+2) game is technically a tighter spread, but let's be serious, I doubt even Brett Bielema's mom is going to watch that one.
Big 12
Last and least interesting this week is the Big 12 (welcome back guys! the "least relevant" slot missed you!) Oklahoma is looking to cruise past Iowa State (+26.5) this week and OK State is on a bye. TCU does have a sneaky-tricky game perhaps vs. West Virginia (+12), but I would be pretty surprised by an upset here. My spreadsheet likes TCU by 35, which is about as much as Kelvin Grady likes to sell weed. So, the game to watch in the Central Time Zone this week looks to be K-State at Texas (-5.5). After the Week 1 debacle at the hands of Maryland (which is odd since Turtles don't really have hands) Texas may have actually figured some things out. Vegas clearly thinks that they are better than Kansas State, and my model agrees by a lot (-22). A win this weekend would build confidence as the Longhorns hit a tough stretch where they face the Oklahoma schools back-to-back. Did we count them out too quickly?
Independents / Group of Five
On paper, Notre Dame’s road trip to Chapel Hill this weekend seemed like it could be trouble back in the summer, but the Tarheels (+16.5) are off to a dreadful 1-4 start and now only 2-3 wins total seems likely. If nothing else, Notre Dame has a lot of experience going to chapel, so I except UNC to be asking for mercy by half time. As for the weekly NY6 watch, it looks to be a quiet week. In the AAC, USF is on a bye and UCF is a 14-point favorite at Cincinnati. There is little more promise for intrigue in the AAC West, as current favorite Navy (-10) gets to host Air Force. It should also be noted that both SMU and Houston are undefeated in league play, but only one still will be by Sunday as the Mustangs must make that three and a half hour drive down I-45 to face the Cougars (-8.5). Let the record show that my spreadsheet has the Cougars on upset alert. Finally, San Diego State will look to keep pace with the AAC with their match-up with Fresno State (+14.5).
That's all I have for now, so as always, Go State, Beat Michigan!
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