Paul Bunyan is back in the house, y’all. I must admit that I have always leaned in the direction of being a bit of a green koolaide drinker. Now, I don’t think MSU will win every game, I just usually think MSU has a chance to win every game. Actually, a big part of why I have gotten into the stats that I utilize in this space is that I like to know exactly what that chance is, and coming into Saturday night, the math said I had a 20% chance of seeing an MSU victory in Ann Arbor. But, for whatever reason, I felt it was better than that, and when I was offered a ticket to attend, I took it. I just had a feeling it was going to work out for me. My emotions were taken on a wild ride Saturday night. Before kick-off, I felt good. But, after Michigan started getting a little something going on the ground in their first drive, I was a little nervous. But then, after UofM’s first fumble, MSU grabbed momentum and before long, the scoreboard read 14-3 and the collars of the maize and blue faithful were starting to get a wee bit tight. Just before half time, things started to get dicey again for the Spartans, and then the 2nd half started with a field position debacle resulting eventually in just a 4-point cushion. Then, the rain came. But fortunately, Coach Dantonio, had a plan, and his plan was simple: he was going to play Tressel Ball. Don’t panic; don’t take risks; just run the ball; milk the clock; and make the other team beat you… in a monsoon. But, you know what else about Tressel Ball? It is damned stressful to watch as a fan, especially when surrounded by 100,000 of your best frenemies. Because, it only takes one DB to fall down or one crazy tip drill completion to flip the scrip. As the clock counted down, countless ghosts of big games past flashed in through my brain: the 2006 Notre Dame rain game, Cluster-punt, Rocket. For a while there, I thought Fate might just decide to strike the Spartans down at the very end, and worse yet, I thought MSU might actually deserve it for making too many errors and leaving too many points on the board. But that’s the other thing about Tressel Ball: it works more often than it doesn’t if properly executed, because it is essentially playing the probabilities. Now, somewhere I can picture John L Smith watching the game and shouting at the TV saying, “that is what I was trying to do back in 2006, and I still lost!” Then, he probably slapped himself. But, this is why Coach D is Coach D and John L is unemployed. And, one thing I imagine Coach D sure would tell you, is that you gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to try to pass the ball, and know when to run. At the end of the game Coach D played his cards correctly, I was fortunate enough to see the team run back through the tunnel of the Big House carrying Paul Bunyan wearing his new favorite helmet.
For, me it was my second trip to the Big House, and I am now 2-0 (just like Dantonio is there vs. Harbaugh). For my first trip back in 2008, RichRod’s first year, the maize and blue crowd seemed surprisingly calm in the loss. After all, they had accepted that their coach was new and some growing pains were to be expected, and so it was not like MSU beat a good Michigan team, right? RichRod would figure it all out soon and undoubtedly lead them to a new level of greatness that they somehow feel they deserve. But after the game on Saturday, the feeling was a bit different. I heard the grumbling about the rain and the refs (to be expected) but there was also grumbling about the play calling. Isn’t that Coach Khaki’s responsibility? Even the Wolverine’s attempt to drown out the cheers of “Go Green, Go White!” with “Can’t Read, Can’t Write” as we exited the Big House seemed half-hearted. This loss might just sting a little longer and harder than the previous 7, because this is the Savior’s 3rd Year, and even the most dedicated Wolverine fan must realize that the same thing keeps happening to them over and over again, no matter who is on their sideline. Rather, the constant is that same stoic man standing on that other sideline, and now more than ever, that man’s face will be firmly planted in their nightmares, right alongside a certain scrappy little Italian guy from the U.P. I have news for Wolverine Nation: the reports of a new era where you can sleep peacefully the night before your non-rivalry game have been greatly exaggerated. Because it isn’t over. It will never be over, and We Still. Own. You.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above shows the comparison of the results of Week 6 to the opening spread. The notable teams that managed to cover the spread easily are Ohio State, Texas Tech, Iowa, Georgia, Washington State, and San Diego State, while oddly, Bama failed to cover. On the upset front, I counted a total of 14, which for once was actually within the standard deviation of my pre-week prediction, although on the high side. The biggest upset of the week, and frankly for the year so far, was Iowa State’s defeat of Oklahoma, despite opening at a 26.5-point favorite. Based on my math, there was only a 2.4% chance of that upset happening. The Power 5 saw several upsets including South Carolina over Arkansas, NC State over Louisville, Purdue over Minnesota, Arizona over Colorado, LSU over Florida, Virginia over Duke, and some little contest in Ann Arbor featuring a washed-up program living on past success getting beaten up by their younger, more attractive, more charismatic, and more street smart little brother in Green and White. Nobody is really sure why that other team was favored in the first place.
While I had a good weekend, my spread did just OK. It got only 2 of 7 upset picks correct, which drags the season tally down to 18-23 (44%), but it did a little better for highlighted covers (13-12, bringing the tally to 42-33 (56%) for year), and also against the spread (ATS) overall (32-25, bringing the tally to 163-144 (53.1%) for the year). Rand()y had another rough weekend, going only 4-9 on upsets, bringing his tally to 21-56 (27.6% for the year). Meanwhile, ESPN had perhaps the best week of all, and not just because most of America tuned into to ABC to watch 100,000 yellow-clad rubes get soaked to the bone while watching their team lose. ESPN’s FPI had one of its best week’s ever, matching my models 32-25 performance ATS, and actually getting 4 of its 6 upset picks correct. The FPI is now 10-15 (40%) for upset picks this year and 162-140 (53.6%) ATS. Now, let’s take our weekly spin around the country.
Big Ten
The main contenders in the B1G: Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin all had big, spread covering wins this weekend, albeit against weak competition. Iowa struggled early at home, but eventually routed Illinois to cover as well. But, the other two games were upsets, including the aforemented game in Ann Arbor and also Purdue's rain-delayed-come-from-behind home win against Minnesota, which certainly makes me feel just a little bit better about next week. Also, the Boilermaker in mu just snuck a peak at Purdue's schedule, and it is surprisingly manageable, with only games at Wisconsin and at Iowa looking like losses. It is certainly possible at this point that Purdue will win 9 games and finish second in the West to the Badgers. But, as always, really, the biggest losers this week were the Wolverines. Compared to the other two preseason Big Ten East favorites, UofM clearly had a scheduling disadvantage anyway due to their game in Madison in mid November. But, now, with one loss already, their margin for error is razor thin. They might need to beat both OSU and PSU to have any shot at the title. But, let's not get ahead of ourselves, Big Blue has to make the trip to Bloomington next week, and in my experience, an error there can really blow the wheels off the whole operation. Stay tuned.
Big 12
Just when I think I have the Big 12 figured out and start saying nice things about them, well, a week like this happens. The conference was putting right along, the contenders seemed to be shaking out, and it looked like we were headed for a nice, clean show-down between the Sooners and Horned Frogs in mid-November to decide a likely play-off berth. But, this weekend a maroon and yellow Cyclone ripped through the conference, leaving an overturned Schooner in its wake. The biggest winner in all this is ironically not Iowa State, but rather TCU. Everyone’s favorite Purple Frog managed to avoid the upset to the Mountaineers to remain unbeaten for the year. TCU still has to travel to Norman this year, which will be tough, but at this point I suspect the Sooners won’t run the table from here on out either. So, my best guess, and my spreadsheet’s math both suggest TCU is the new favorite to win the conference, even if they lose to Oklahoma. Oddly the other team tied with TCU at the top of the standings is none other than Texas, who managed to beat Kansas State. The next two weeks will be telling, as the Longhorns must now face Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in back-to-back weeks. If UT can score an update in either contest, all of a sudden, they are right in the thick of the conference race.
ACC
The ACC saw some fun action this weekend, including the two upsets of NC State over Louisville and Virginia over Duke. The NC State win means that the Wolfpack are now essentially the only legitimate threat to Clemson in the Atlantic Division. Louisville now only needs to worry about whether those guys in the dark suits have finally stopped looking through the dumpster behind Pitino’s office. In the Coastal Division, Miami scored a big win over Florida State to establishment themselves as the clear Division favorite, although Virginia and GA Tech are both still undefeated in conference play and VA Tech is simply hanging around with 1 loss to Clemson. Speaking of Clemson, they beat Wake Forest, and even though they didn’t cover, nothing else in the conference probably matters unless they drop one… or more likely two. Finally, Pitt lost to Syracuse to sink their record to 2-4 and put them squarely in danger to miss out on a Bowl. Really, Pat? Let’s not screw up that resume too badly, we still might need to interview you for a job opening in 5-10 years (knock on wood).
SEC
As I look at the results in the SEC this week, the phrase that comes to mind is “status quo.” Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia have clearly risen to the top, and all teams won this weekend. Auburn and UGA both covered pretty easily. Alabama didn’t, but that was a road game at Texas A&M, which was clearly a stiffer test than either Ole Miss or at Vandy. Georgia also got a bit of a boost from LSU this week as the Tigers were able to score a minor upset by edging Florida. Georgia still needs to beat Florida in the World’s Largest Redneck Gathering in a few weeks, especially considering that Auburn looms on the schedule as a cross-division, but they are looking very good to run away with the East Title. That said, Kentucky is also sitting there with only one conference loss after taking care of Mizzou this weekend, and their West cross-overs are the two schools from Mississippi. The Wildcats must travel to Athens for the SEC finale, and it is certainly possibly that Georgia will still need to win that game to clinch the Division. Out West, Arkansas was upset this weekend by a bunch of Chickens, dropping them to 0-2 and almost certainly out of the race. That, coupled with A&M’s loss and the fact that LSU sucks, means the Iron Bowl will almost certainly decide the Division.
Pac 12
It was pretty much a status quo weekend out West as well this week, as the only upset took place when Arizona took out Colorado, dropping the poor Buffs to 0-3 in conference play. Down South, USC beat the head coach right out of the Beavers this weekend (yet didn’t even cover in doing so). Couple this with Utah’s loss to Stanford and the Trojans path to the South Title appears to be… well lubricated. Speaking of Stanford, they improved their record to 3-1, yet are still a half game behind the Washington schools, who both covered easily this week in their contests against Cal and Oregon. Stanford does still get a shot at both teams yet this season, but the North Division seems likely to come down to the final week show-down of the Huskies and Cougars. How do you like them apples?
Independents / Group of Five
Notre Dame easily covered vs. UNC this weekend to run their record to 5-1. With 4 of their final 6 games at home, a NY6 bid is clearly in play, but they would likely need to take 2 of the 3 from USC, @Miami, and Stanford. If they were to somehow win out, a Playoff berth is certainly possible, but you do wonder if Georgia would need to beat Alabama in the SEC title game to give them a shot. San Diego State crushed any hope of rebellion from UNLV and thus stayed undefeated, while Houston, Navy, and UCF all won in the AAC to maintain their unblemished conference records.
And finally, the question that we have waited almost 2 years to ask: How Good is… Michigan State?
No, really? How high far can this team go? At the beginning of the season, most people saw 7-5 as the most likely optimistic finish for this squad, and most people also realized that the Notre Dame-Iowa-Michigan stretch was going to be a critical bellwether for the rest of the season. Having now emerged from that gauntlet with a 4-1 record overall, the future looks very, very bright. The defense is playing at a Top 10 level, and the offense seems on the verge of a breakout. In addition, the rest of the schedule is lining up surprisingly nicely. Next week’s game at Minnesota looks to be the 3rd hardest game left, and if MSU survives that, 9-3 looks to be a very realistic. If this team can continue to build over the next 3 weeks and simply not stub a toe, MSU is 7-1 and ready to face Penn State… in East Lansing in what would likely be a Top 15 if not Top 10 match-up. And, call me crazy, but it seems like Dantonio has Urban Myer’s number just a little bit. I know that there are a lot of superstitious Spartans out there, but this is starting to smell just a little bit like 2013. MSU is roughly one more upset win away from NY6 consideration, and two away from Indy.
How Bad is… Florida State?
Back in the summer, I read somewhere on the internet about some guy with a spreadsheet that picked FSU to win the ACC and make the playoffs. Wait… no, that was me. Never mind. Anyway, FSU now stands at 1-3 with essentially no shot at the conference title and only a possible bid in the Belk Bowl as their best possible option. Now, I realize their QB is hurt and the 3 losses all came to good teams, but we all saw last year what can happen once a team starts losing. On paper, things get easier, but the Nole’s next 2 games are at Duke and vs. Louisville and Clemson and Florida are both still on the schedule. It doesn’t take a UofM general studies major to tell you that four more losses mean the even the Quick Lane Bowl would likely be out of reach.
That’s all for right now. Go State, beat the Gophers!
For, me it was my second trip to the Big House, and I am now 2-0 (just like Dantonio is there vs. Harbaugh). For my first trip back in 2008, RichRod’s first year, the maize and blue crowd seemed surprisingly calm in the loss. After all, they had accepted that their coach was new and some growing pains were to be expected, and so it was not like MSU beat a good Michigan team, right? RichRod would figure it all out soon and undoubtedly lead them to a new level of greatness that they somehow feel they deserve. But after the game on Saturday, the feeling was a bit different. I heard the grumbling about the rain and the refs (to be expected) but there was also grumbling about the play calling. Isn’t that Coach Khaki’s responsibility? Even the Wolverine’s attempt to drown out the cheers of “Go Green, Go White!” with “Can’t Read, Can’t Write” as we exited the Big House seemed half-hearted. This loss might just sting a little longer and harder than the previous 7, because this is the Savior’s 3rd Year, and even the most dedicated Wolverine fan must realize that the same thing keeps happening to them over and over again, no matter who is on their sideline. Rather, the constant is that same stoic man standing on that other sideline, and now more than ever, that man’s face will be firmly planted in their nightmares, right alongside a certain scrappy little Italian guy from the U.P. I have news for Wolverine Nation: the reports of a new era where you can sleep peacefully the night before your non-rivalry game have been greatly exaggerated. Because it isn’t over. It will never be over, and We Still. Own. You.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above shows the comparison of the results of Week 6 to the opening spread. The notable teams that managed to cover the spread easily are Ohio State, Texas Tech, Iowa, Georgia, Washington State, and San Diego State, while oddly, Bama failed to cover. On the upset front, I counted a total of 14, which for once was actually within the standard deviation of my pre-week prediction, although on the high side. The biggest upset of the week, and frankly for the year so far, was Iowa State’s defeat of Oklahoma, despite opening at a 26.5-point favorite. Based on my math, there was only a 2.4% chance of that upset happening. The Power 5 saw several upsets including South Carolina over Arkansas, NC State over Louisville, Purdue over Minnesota, Arizona over Colorado, LSU over Florida, Virginia over Duke, and some little contest in Ann Arbor featuring a washed-up program living on past success getting beaten up by their younger, more attractive, more charismatic, and more street smart little brother in Green and White. Nobody is really sure why that other team was favored in the first place.
While I had a good weekend, my spread did just OK. It got only 2 of 7 upset picks correct, which drags the season tally down to 18-23 (44%), but it did a little better for highlighted covers (13-12, bringing the tally to 42-33 (56%) for year), and also against the spread (ATS) overall (32-25, bringing the tally to 163-144 (53.1%) for the year). Rand()y had another rough weekend, going only 4-9 on upsets, bringing his tally to 21-56 (27.6% for the year). Meanwhile, ESPN had perhaps the best week of all, and not just because most of America tuned into to ABC to watch 100,000 yellow-clad rubes get soaked to the bone while watching their team lose. ESPN’s FPI had one of its best week’s ever, matching my models 32-25 performance ATS, and actually getting 4 of its 6 upset picks correct. The FPI is now 10-15 (40%) for upset picks this year and 162-140 (53.6%) ATS. Now, let’s take our weekly spin around the country.
Big Ten
The main contenders in the B1G: Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin all had big, spread covering wins this weekend, albeit against weak competition. Iowa struggled early at home, but eventually routed Illinois to cover as well. But, the other two games were upsets, including the aforemented game in Ann Arbor and also Purdue's rain-delayed-come-from-behind home win against Minnesota, which certainly makes me feel just a little bit better about next week. Also, the Boilermaker in mu just snuck a peak at Purdue's schedule, and it is surprisingly manageable, with only games at Wisconsin and at Iowa looking like losses. It is certainly possible at this point that Purdue will win 9 games and finish second in the West to the Badgers. But, as always, really, the biggest losers this week were the Wolverines. Compared to the other two preseason Big Ten East favorites, UofM clearly had a scheduling disadvantage anyway due to their game in Madison in mid November. But, now, with one loss already, their margin for error is razor thin. They might need to beat both OSU and PSU to have any shot at the title. But, let's not get ahead of ourselves, Big Blue has to make the trip to Bloomington next week, and in my experience, an error there can really blow the wheels off the whole operation. Stay tuned.
Big 12
Just when I think I have the Big 12 figured out and start saying nice things about them, well, a week like this happens. The conference was putting right along, the contenders seemed to be shaking out, and it looked like we were headed for a nice, clean show-down between the Sooners and Horned Frogs in mid-November to decide a likely play-off berth. But, this weekend a maroon and yellow Cyclone ripped through the conference, leaving an overturned Schooner in its wake. The biggest winner in all this is ironically not Iowa State, but rather TCU. Everyone’s favorite Purple Frog managed to avoid the upset to the Mountaineers to remain unbeaten for the year. TCU still has to travel to Norman this year, which will be tough, but at this point I suspect the Sooners won’t run the table from here on out either. So, my best guess, and my spreadsheet’s math both suggest TCU is the new favorite to win the conference, even if they lose to Oklahoma. Oddly the other team tied with TCU at the top of the standings is none other than Texas, who managed to beat Kansas State. The next two weeks will be telling, as the Longhorns must now face Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in back-to-back weeks. If UT can score an update in either contest, all of a sudden, they are right in the thick of the conference race.
ACC
The ACC saw some fun action this weekend, including the two upsets of NC State over Louisville and Virginia over Duke. The NC State win means that the Wolfpack are now essentially the only legitimate threat to Clemson in the Atlantic Division. Louisville now only needs to worry about whether those guys in the dark suits have finally stopped looking through the dumpster behind Pitino’s office. In the Coastal Division, Miami scored a big win over Florida State to establishment themselves as the clear Division favorite, although Virginia and GA Tech are both still undefeated in conference play and VA Tech is simply hanging around with 1 loss to Clemson. Speaking of Clemson, they beat Wake Forest, and even though they didn’t cover, nothing else in the conference probably matters unless they drop one… or more likely two. Finally, Pitt lost to Syracuse to sink their record to 2-4 and put them squarely in danger to miss out on a Bowl. Really, Pat? Let’s not screw up that resume too badly, we still might need to interview you for a job opening in 5-10 years (knock on wood).
SEC
As I look at the results in the SEC this week, the phrase that comes to mind is “status quo.” Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia have clearly risen to the top, and all teams won this weekend. Auburn and UGA both covered pretty easily. Alabama didn’t, but that was a road game at Texas A&M, which was clearly a stiffer test than either Ole Miss or at Vandy. Georgia also got a bit of a boost from LSU this week as the Tigers were able to score a minor upset by edging Florida. Georgia still needs to beat Florida in the World’s Largest Redneck Gathering in a few weeks, especially considering that Auburn looms on the schedule as a cross-division, but they are looking very good to run away with the East Title. That said, Kentucky is also sitting there with only one conference loss after taking care of Mizzou this weekend, and their West cross-overs are the two schools from Mississippi. The Wildcats must travel to Athens for the SEC finale, and it is certainly possibly that Georgia will still need to win that game to clinch the Division. Out West, Arkansas was upset this weekend by a bunch of Chickens, dropping them to 0-2 and almost certainly out of the race. That, coupled with A&M’s loss and the fact that LSU sucks, means the Iron Bowl will almost certainly decide the Division.
Pac 12
It was pretty much a status quo weekend out West as well this week, as the only upset took place when Arizona took out Colorado, dropping the poor Buffs to 0-3 in conference play. Down South, USC beat the head coach right out of the Beavers this weekend (yet didn’t even cover in doing so). Couple this with Utah’s loss to Stanford and the Trojans path to the South Title appears to be… well lubricated. Speaking of Stanford, they improved their record to 3-1, yet are still a half game behind the Washington schools, who both covered easily this week in their contests against Cal and Oregon. Stanford does still get a shot at both teams yet this season, but the North Division seems likely to come down to the final week show-down of the Huskies and Cougars. How do you like them apples?
Independents / Group of Five
Notre Dame easily covered vs. UNC this weekend to run their record to 5-1. With 4 of their final 6 games at home, a NY6 bid is clearly in play, but they would likely need to take 2 of the 3 from USC, @Miami, and Stanford. If they were to somehow win out, a Playoff berth is certainly possible, but you do wonder if Georgia would need to beat Alabama in the SEC title game to give them a shot. San Diego State crushed any hope of rebellion from UNLV and thus stayed undefeated, while Houston, Navy, and UCF all won in the AAC to maintain their unblemished conference records.
And finally, the question that we have waited almost 2 years to ask: How Good is… Michigan State?
No, really? How high far can this team go? At the beginning of the season, most people saw 7-5 as the most likely optimistic finish for this squad, and most people also realized that the Notre Dame-Iowa-Michigan stretch was going to be a critical bellwether for the rest of the season. Having now emerged from that gauntlet with a 4-1 record overall, the future looks very, very bright. The defense is playing at a Top 10 level, and the offense seems on the verge of a breakout. In addition, the rest of the schedule is lining up surprisingly nicely. Next week’s game at Minnesota looks to be the 3rd hardest game left, and if MSU survives that, 9-3 looks to be a very realistic. If this team can continue to build over the next 3 weeks and simply not stub a toe, MSU is 7-1 and ready to face Penn State… in East Lansing in what would likely be a Top 15 if not Top 10 match-up. And, call me crazy, but it seems like Dantonio has Urban Myer’s number just a little bit. I know that there are a lot of superstitious Spartans out there, but this is starting to smell just a little bit like 2013. MSU is roughly one more upset win away from NY6 consideration, and two away from Indy.
How Bad is… Florida State?
Back in the summer, I read somewhere on the internet about some guy with a spreadsheet that picked FSU to win the ACC and make the playoffs. Wait… no, that was me. Never mind. Anyway, FSU now stands at 1-3 with essentially no shot at the conference title and only a possible bid in the Belk Bowl as their best possible option. Now, I realize their QB is hurt and the 3 losses all came to good teams, but we all saw last year what can happen once a team starts losing. On paper, things get easier, but the Nole’s next 2 games are at Duke and vs. Louisville and Clemson and Florida are both still on the schedule. It doesn’t take a UofM general studies major to tell you that four more losses mean the even the Quick Lane Bowl would likely be out of reach.
That’s all for right now. Go State, beat the Gophers!
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