OK, now I am not going to dwell on this subject long, but I do work in Ann Arbor and I just wanted to say that have just had a fantastic start to my work week. It pretty much feels like this:
Meanwhile, from the Maize and Bruised crowd, it has been more like this:
It’s been glorious. The thing that Wolverine Nation doesn’t really understand is that beyond the pure joy of beating our most despised rival, one of the main advantages of winning so much over the past decade is the glorious silence. Because, Wolverine Nation **News Flash** we actually don’t care about you that much, it is just that you can’t stop talking about yourself. As a community, you are basically like a group of spoiled, narcissistic children that are starved for attention. It is not at all that MSU is obsessed with UofM. Actually, it is quite the opposite. After winning 8 of the last 10, we pretty much expect to beat you every time now, just like in basketball. The problem is that you are so obsessed with yourself, that you assume we must be obsessed with you as well. We are not. We are pretty much over it. It is just that we are so tired of the non-stop hype, the September Heisman’s, the poll questions about whether we would trade a 4-8 season for a win over you, and the annual question about who we are rooting for when you play OSU. Why, do you care who we root for? I have never once thought or cared about who you are rooting for. IT’S NOT ALWAYS ABOUT YOU! So, as a result, what we really want is just for you to shut the hell up, and the best way for that to happen is for you to just keep losing. So, FYI, we are going to root for Ohio State at the end of the season, and this week, Indiana. The silence is golden.
But, as I said, this is not about Michigan, MSU is past that. This week, it is all about Minnesota, and PJ Fleck has brought the life aquatic with him to the Twin Cities. The Gophers started the season strong with three straight wins over the traditional powers of Buffalo, Oregon State, and Middle Tennessee State, but have since hit rough seas in their first 2 B1G contests vs Maryland and Purdue. So, Minnesota has likely entered a bit of desperation mode and are battening down the hatches. And, there is no better opportunity to right the ship than a shot to beat a ranked team at home under the lights, especially if that team has won 3 of the past 7 Big Ten Titles. So, I think that it is a safe bet that the Gophers are going to give us their best shot. I just hope they leave the Goldie Uniforms in the locker room, as I saw enough yellow last weekend to last me the entire season.
National Overview
As usual, the chart below shows my spreadsheet’s picks for the week compared to the opening Vegas spread. For the second straight week, the algorithm is working without the biasing from the preseason rankings, and things seem to have settled out. The spreadsheet likes a total of 10 teams to cover big: Bama, Iowa St, Mississippi St, Marshall, ULL, both Miamis, TCU and (not shown on the graph) Georgia and UCF. Notably, my spreadsheet likes the Bulldogs and Knights so much this week that they are off-scale as ~60-ish point favorites. Interestingly, it also like USF not to cover as a host to Cincinnati this week. Huh.
As for upsets, the random number simulation once again suggests a total of 13.2 ± 3.0 which seems stable over the past few weeks. The distribution is a bit “abnormal” which roughly an equal probability of seeing anywhere from 11 to 15, with 14 upsets having the highest probability. As for individual picks, the spreadsheet likes a total of 8 upsets including Maryland over Northwestern, Vandy over Ole Miss, Navy over Memphis, South Carolina over Tennessee, A&M over Florida, and Rutgers over Illinois. ESPN’s FPI likes only 6 upsets, notably Texas Tech over West Virginia and UNC over Virginia. Rand()y once again is picking against the Spartans. I always suspected that Chaos was a closet Michigan fan. Now, let’s take a closer look at the action in each conference this week.
Big Ten
Big 12
Before last weekend, the Big 12 looked like a two-team race between TCU and Oklahoma, but with Iowa State’s upset of the Sooners and TCU’s narrow escape vs. the Mountaineers last week, the conference suddenly looks wide open. I am pretty confident that OK State (-23) will get past Baylor, and Iowa State (-20) seems like a safe bet against Kansas. After all, a middle school Pop Warner squad seems like a safe bet against Kansas. But, the other three games could generate some real drama. Texas Tech visits WVU (-6) and while I doubt either team will eventually contend, they are both 1-1 in conference play and the loser is likely out of the race. TCU is still the likely favorite, but they must travel to Manhattan (not that one…the other one) to face Kansas State (+4.5). But, the most anticipated game is the Red River Showdown at Jerry World in Dallas. Oklahoma opened favored by 8 over Texas, but my spreadsheet think it will be closer than that (I have the predicted margin at 2.1). It would have seemed crazy a few weeks ago, but if Texas wins, they move to 3-0 and all of a sudden might be the new favorite. Maybe Tom Herman had a secret stash of fairy dust after all, and not that cheap Chinese knock-off crap either, but the REAL DEAL. Or, was it pixie dust? Or pixie sticks? Or maybe the band The Pixies? Never mind, I’ll just call Urban Meyer and ask him.
SEC
The action in the SEC this week is surprisingly similar to the Big Ten: 4 of the 6 conference games feature spreads of 6 points or less, and two of them are fairly relevant to the overall conference race. The biggest game of the week looks to be Auburn’s visit to Baton Rouge to face the somehow-still-Ed Orgeron-coached LSU Tigers (+6). Perhaps Vegas hit the snooze bar on LSU’s last month or so, but this game seems unlikely to stay close to me. The second game of note is Texas A&M’s trip to Gainesville to battle the Gators (-4). Wait… Florida is favored? Is the SEC Network not available in Nevada? My model likes the upset here. As for the other games, my simulation also has issues with a few of the other contests as Vegas likes Ole Miss (-3) at home vs. Vandy as well as Tennessee (-2.5) at home vs. South Carolina. My spreadsheet likes the road underdog in both cases. But, something we can all agree upon is the Bret Bielema is loser or rather will be one this weekend at Bama (-31) and Missouri will likely have no better luck at Georgia (-29.5)
ACC
In ACC-land, the action is slightly less intriguing as only 3 games boast spreads under 10. The most competitive game is predicted to be Virginia’s trip down Tobacco Road to face UNC (+2.5). As long as UVA does not get too Cavalier in their preparation, I think that they will be fine, and thus will remain in the thick of the Coastal Division race… for now. Also in the Coastal Division, current favorite Miami hosts Georgia Tech (+7.5), in a battle of 2-0 teams. While the spread is reasonably tight, my spreadsheet favors a blown out by the home team. In the “pop popcorn and watch Rome burn” category, Florida State travels to Duke (+6.5). FSU is obviously off to a rough 1-3 start and they are certainly likely to turn things around, but the wheels on that bus look to be a bit loose (and let’s be honest, almost everyone loves popcorn). Finally, in the Atlantic Division, Clemson (-21) visits the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, and NC State will try to keep pace as the Wolfpack travel to Pitt (+11). If Narduzzi’s squad doesn’t turn it around soon, he might be able to commiserate with his former colleagues over the summer about how much 3-9 seasons suck.
Pac 12
You know how all the other conferences have a slew of games that should be at least fairly competitive? That sounds pretty nice, right? Well, let's just say that Saturday night might be a good time to just head to bed a little early, as the action out west is... less than compelling. Of the 6 games on tap, only one has a spread closer than 10 points, and that is the pick'em game featuring UCLA at Arizona. Let's just say that the Pac 12 is not going to be calling NBC and asking for the rights to "Must See TV" any time soon. As for the contenders, the Washington schools are both on the road as the Huskies (-16.5) travel to Arizona State and Wazzou (-13.5) heads to Cal. I guess road games are sort of tough in the Pac 12. Maybe? Also, Oregon travels to Stanford (-10.5) which would have been a great game if it was 2010. Finally USC (-12.5) hosts Utah and I guess Utah is the only other team in the South with fewer than 2 loses, so that's... notable? Maybe? Who am I kidding, just go to bed, people.
Independents / Group of Five
Notre Dame is on a bye this week, so I imagine that they will spend the weekend polishing our Megaphone to make sure it stays nice for its return to East Lansing in 2026. As for the Group of Five, there are a couple of games that may start to provide a bit of separation of the possible NY6 participants. In the AAC, USF (-24.5) hosts Cincinnati. That is a big spread, but interestingly, my spreadsheet predicts that the margin should only be around 9 points, for reasons that I do not really understand. So, I am going to trust my math and issue an upset Watch (not a Warning, just a Watch). The other prime AAC East contender, UCF, is a 32-point favorite at home vs. East Carolina, and once the spread get to 32, the probability of victory exceeds 99%. As for the AAC West, two of the three main contenders will square off when Navy travels to Memphis (-5.5). In this case, I AM issuing an Upset Warning / Alert for Memphis, as my spreadsheet likes Navy by 3.4, though I think the 0.4 will be tough to pull off. The other West contender, Houston, is a 13-point favorite at Tulsa. Finally, San Diego State had perhaps their toughest remaining opponent this week as they prepare to host Boise State (+7). Now, the Broncos are not exactly the Broncos of old, but literally no one after them on the Aztec's schedule was ranked in the Top 90 of FBS in the pre-season, and my spreadsheet predicts San Diego State will be favored by no less than 17 points in all their remaining games. The Mountain West also has a championship game, but the Aztecs are well positioned to run the table, and with a win against Stanford on their resume, they are right there with South Florida at the head of the NY6 pack.
Well, that's all for this week, as always: Go State, Beat the Gophers!
Meanwhile, from the Maize and Bruised crowd, it has been more like this:
It’s been glorious. The thing that Wolverine Nation doesn’t really understand is that beyond the pure joy of beating our most despised rival, one of the main advantages of winning so much over the past decade is the glorious silence. Because, Wolverine Nation **News Flash** we actually don’t care about you that much, it is just that you can’t stop talking about yourself. As a community, you are basically like a group of spoiled, narcissistic children that are starved for attention. It is not at all that MSU is obsessed with UofM. Actually, it is quite the opposite. After winning 8 of the last 10, we pretty much expect to beat you every time now, just like in basketball. The problem is that you are so obsessed with yourself, that you assume we must be obsessed with you as well. We are not. We are pretty much over it. It is just that we are so tired of the non-stop hype, the September Heisman’s, the poll questions about whether we would trade a 4-8 season for a win over you, and the annual question about who we are rooting for when you play OSU. Why, do you care who we root for? I have never once thought or cared about who you are rooting for. IT’S NOT ALWAYS ABOUT YOU! So, as a result, what we really want is just for you to shut the hell up, and the best way for that to happen is for you to just keep losing. So, FYI, we are going to root for Ohio State at the end of the season, and this week, Indiana. The silence is golden.
But, as I said, this is not about Michigan, MSU is past that. This week, it is all about Minnesota, and PJ Fleck has brought the life aquatic with him to the Twin Cities. The Gophers started the season strong with three straight wins over the traditional powers of Buffalo, Oregon State, and Middle Tennessee State, but have since hit rough seas in their first 2 B1G contests vs Maryland and Purdue. So, Minnesota has likely entered a bit of desperation mode and are battening down the hatches. And, there is no better opportunity to right the ship than a shot to beat a ranked team at home under the lights, especially if that team has won 3 of the past 7 Big Ten Titles. So, I think that it is a safe bet that the Gophers are going to give us their best shot. I just hope they leave the Goldie Uniforms in the locker room, as I saw enough yellow last weekend to last me the entire season.
As for MSU, the Spartans just need to stay the course and
continue all rowing in the same direction. Over the past two weeks, MSU went
from a team that was a border-line Bowl Team to a bona-fide Big Ten East contender,
or perhaps at least a dark horse. Barring a catastrophic rash of injuries, six
wins seems a virtual lock. So now it is
time to start dreaming a little bigger. As I look at the remaining schedule,
this weekend’s match-up looks to be the 3rd hardest game left and
everybody should know which games are #1 and #2. So, if the Spartans can win on
Saturday, they will almost certainly be favored to win 4 of the remaining 6,
which means 9-3 becomes the low tide mark, with a great shot to hit double
digits in late December or January 1st.
So, the real question is how will MSU respond to this new-found
success, especially after the punishing three-week gauntlet that we just
survived? Based on my source, the Vegas line opened at -3 for MSU, which
translates into just a 58% chance at victory.
Once again, I am not going to pretend that I can break down the x’s and
o’s of this match-up, but by and large this feels like a game that a Mark
Dantonio MSU squad should win, as
long as they don’t regress to Notre Dame levels of miscues. If they don’t, then
a fairly major opportunity will be lost, and the rebuild-turned-reload will
start to look a bit more like a rebuild again. So, Steady As She Goes, Good
Ship Spartan, and full steam ahead.
As usual, the chart below shows my spreadsheet’s picks for the week compared to the opening Vegas spread. For the second straight week, the algorithm is working without the biasing from the preseason rankings, and things seem to have settled out. The spreadsheet likes a total of 10 teams to cover big: Bama, Iowa St, Mississippi St, Marshall, ULL, both Miamis, TCU and (not shown on the graph) Georgia and UCF. Notably, my spreadsheet likes the Bulldogs and Knights so much this week that they are off-scale as ~60-ish point favorites. Interestingly, it also like USF not to cover as a host to Cincinnati this week. Huh.
As for upsets, the random number simulation once again suggests a total of 13.2 ± 3.0 which seems stable over the past few weeks. The distribution is a bit “abnormal” which roughly an equal probability of seeing anywhere from 11 to 15, with 14 upsets having the highest probability. As for individual picks, the spreadsheet likes a total of 8 upsets including Maryland over Northwestern, Vandy over Ole Miss, Navy over Memphis, South Carolina over Tennessee, A&M over Florida, and Rutgers over Illinois. ESPN’s FPI likes only 6 upsets, notably Texas Tech over West Virginia and UNC over Virginia. Rand()y once again is picking against the Spartans. I always suspected that Chaos was a closet Michigan fan. Now, let’s take a closer look at the action in each conference this week.
Big Ten
A quick glance at the spreads in the conference this week might convince one that it is going to be a fun and competitive weekend in B1G country, as 4 of the 6 games have spreads under a TD… until one looks at the actual match-ups. One of those games is MSU’s road trip to Minneapolis to face the Gophers (+3) which I suppose marks the 2nd game in a row where the Spartans will try to exterminate a known varmint. Similarly, Michigan will try to get back on track with a road game to Bloomington. The Wolverines are only a 6-point favorite, which suggests that they have only a 66% chance to win. While it is hard to imagine Michigan actually losing this game, it is less hard to imagine the result that might happen when trying to shake off a demoralizing loss to a non-rival with a young team playing on the road and led by a possibly unstable khaki-wearing coach with possible narcissistic personality disorder. Couple that with the idea that Indiana likes to run tempo and Michigan doesn’t seem to like to play 2nd stringers and a 34% chance of absolute melt-down disaster is perhaps more reasonable than you might think. As for the other close spreads, Northwestern is actually favored by 3.5 at Maryland, and Illinois is favored at home over Rutgers (+2.5). As crazy as this sounds, my spreadsheet has sounded the Upset Alert and likes both B1G newbies. As for teams that actually matter to the Big Ten race, Penn State has the week off and Ohio State is a 21.5-point favorite as hosts to Nebraska. The most entertaining part of that game (as always) will be the Faux-Pelini Twitter feed. So that just leaves a sneaky interesting match-up of Purdue at Wisconsin (-18). I only say that because after looking at the upcoming schedules of the other teams in the B1G West, this literally might be the last chance for anyone to really challenge the Badgers. If we assume Nebraska doesn’t pull a huge upset, a Badger win would give them a 2-game lead just three games into the conference season. As Bill Paxton once said, “Game over, man!”
Big 12
Before last weekend, the Big 12 looked like a two-team race between TCU and Oklahoma, but with Iowa State’s upset of the Sooners and TCU’s narrow escape vs. the Mountaineers last week, the conference suddenly looks wide open. I am pretty confident that OK State (-23) will get past Baylor, and Iowa State (-20) seems like a safe bet against Kansas. After all, a middle school Pop Warner squad seems like a safe bet against Kansas. But, the other three games could generate some real drama. Texas Tech visits WVU (-6) and while I doubt either team will eventually contend, they are both 1-1 in conference play and the loser is likely out of the race. TCU is still the likely favorite, but they must travel to Manhattan (not that one…the other one) to face Kansas State (+4.5). But, the most anticipated game is the Red River Showdown at Jerry World in Dallas. Oklahoma opened favored by 8 over Texas, but my spreadsheet think it will be closer than that (I have the predicted margin at 2.1). It would have seemed crazy a few weeks ago, but if Texas wins, they move to 3-0 and all of a sudden might be the new favorite. Maybe Tom Herman had a secret stash of fairy dust after all, and not that cheap Chinese knock-off crap either, but the REAL DEAL. Or, was it pixie dust? Or pixie sticks? Or maybe the band The Pixies? Never mind, I’ll just call Urban Meyer and ask him.
SEC
The action in the SEC this week is surprisingly similar to the Big Ten: 4 of the 6 conference games feature spreads of 6 points or less, and two of them are fairly relevant to the overall conference race. The biggest game of the week looks to be Auburn’s visit to Baton Rouge to face the somehow-still-Ed Orgeron-coached LSU Tigers (+6). Perhaps Vegas hit the snooze bar on LSU’s last month or so, but this game seems unlikely to stay close to me. The second game of note is Texas A&M’s trip to Gainesville to battle the Gators (-4). Wait… Florida is favored? Is the SEC Network not available in Nevada? My model likes the upset here. As for the other games, my simulation also has issues with a few of the other contests as Vegas likes Ole Miss (-3) at home vs. Vandy as well as Tennessee (-2.5) at home vs. South Carolina. My spreadsheet likes the road underdog in both cases. But, something we can all agree upon is the Bret Bielema is loser or rather will be one this weekend at Bama (-31) and Missouri will likely have no better luck at Georgia (-29.5)
ACC
In ACC-land, the action is slightly less intriguing as only 3 games boast spreads under 10. The most competitive game is predicted to be Virginia’s trip down Tobacco Road to face UNC (+2.5). As long as UVA does not get too Cavalier in their preparation, I think that they will be fine, and thus will remain in the thick of the Coastal Division race… for now. Also in the Coastal Division, current favorite Miami hosts Georgia Tech (+7.5), in a battle of 2-0 teams. While the spread is reasonably tight, my spreadsheet favors a blown out by the home team. In the “pop popcorn and watch Rome burn” category, Florida State travels to Duke (+6.5). FSU is obviously off to a rough 1-3 start and they are certainly likely to turn things around, but the wheels on that bus look to be a bit loose (and let’s be honest, almost everyone loves popcorn). Finally, in the Atlantic Division, Clemson (-21) visits the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, and NC State will try to keep pace as the Wolfpack travel to Pitt (+11). If Narduzzi’s squad doesn’t turn it around soon, he might be able to commiserate with his former colleagues over the summer about how much 3-9 seasons suck.
Pac 12
Independents / Group of Five
Notre Dame is on a bye this week, so I imagine that they will spend the weekend polishing our Megaphone to make sure it stays nice for its return to East Lansing in 2026. As for the Group of Five, there are a couple of games that may start to provide a bit of separation of the possible NY6 participants. In the AAC, USF (-24.5) hosts Cincinnati. That is a big spread, but interestingly, my spreadsheet predicts that the margin should only be around 9 points, for reasons that I do not really understand. So, I am going to trust my math and issue an upset Watch (not a Warning, just a Watch). The other prime AAC East contender, UCF, is a 32-point favorite at home vs. East Carolina, and once the spread get to 32, the probability of victory exceeds 99%. As for the AAC West, two of the three main contenders will square off when Navy travels to Memphis (-5.5). In this case, I AM issuing an Upset Warning / Alert for Memphis, as my spreadsheet likes Navy by 3.4, though I think the 0.4 will be tough to pull off. The other West contender, Houston, is a 13-point favorite at Tulsa. Finally, San Diego State had perhaps their toughest remaining opponent this week as they prepare to host Boise State (+7). Now, the Broncos are not exactly the Broncos of old, but literally no one after them on the Aztec's schedule was ranked in the Top 90 of FBS in the pre-season, and my spreadsheet predicts San Diego State will be favored by no less than 17 points in all their remaining games. The Mountain West also has a championship game, but the Aztecs are well positioned to run the table, and with a win against Stanford on their resume, they are right there with South Florida at the head of the NY6 pack.
Well, that's all for this week, as always: Go State, Beat the Gophers!
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