As MSU crosses into the second half of 2017, a day has finally come that I am sure many of us have been waiting for. The Spartans and us, their fans, suffered many crushing defeats last season, and one of the most heart-breaking was the slow, week-by-week pillaging of MSU’s trophy case. Of the four trophies that MSU plays for, I can say with virtual certainty that the trophy on the line once again this week is solidly in the Top 3. I am of course referring to the one, the only: Old Brass Spittoon. Now, because I care, I did a little research on the Old Brass Spittoon this week on this charming little website called “Google,” and what I found there was truly surprising. First of all, when you type “Old Brass” into “Google” it literally populated “Spittoon” for me, suggesting that it is, in fact, the most famous old brass item in the world, second, apparently, to “Old Brass Knuckles for Sale” (true story). Second, I found out that the history of the “OBS” is far, um, less interesting than I had hoped. You see, I had stuck in the back of my mind a story about a vessel that dated back to the 1800s. It was a prize possession of one team and at some point, and was stolen by the opposing team as a sort of prank that was popular with 19th century folks. I can only imagine that guys with top hat, canes, and monocles who generally were spitting images of Mr. Peanut were involved. Guffaw! But, when I actually checked “Google” I found that the trophy was actually purchased in an East Lansing antique story in 1950 by the junior class president who wanted to create a new trophy for the Spartans to play for in order to avoid losing focus after a big win over Notre Dame (reasonable). He was apparently inspired by the Little Brown Jug, which also just happened to be the circa 1800 vessel that I was thinking about originally. Crap. But, I learned a valuable lesson from all this: when thinking of important state of Michigan football lore, if it happened before 1950, it probably relates to the University of Michigan, and if it happened after 1950, it probably relates to MSU. #knowledge.
Well, even if the OBS isn’t really that old, it is still pretty stinking old, and more importantly it is current not in our possession. It was rudely stolen from our trophy case in small part due to a penalty in OT on a FG attempt that I had literally never heard of in 42 years of watching football. Neat. Well, Hosers, we want our trophy back, and not just to check to see if it still contains a couple of brass-coated loogies from Duffy and Biggie (a story that I just made up, yet desperately want to be true). No Hosers, we want the trophy back because it would honestly mean a whole lot to this MSU team. First, it would get MSU to 6-1 and officially become Bowl Eligible. That might seem silly to get excited about after the decade of success that we have seen, but that was the goal at the beginning of the season, and that means that every win from here on out is really just gravy. Second, another MSU win would almost certainly mean that this MSU team has taken another step in the process of growth. At this point, we really don't know how good this MSU team can be. If they can keep winning, keep growing, and keep getting better, who knows? MSU just might be able to win back another trophy in 2 weeks, and just maybe, be able to win yet another in early December. Am I overly optimistic? Probably. But don’t mind me; I am just spit-balling here.
As for the game itself, the Vegas line opened by my source as MSU as a 7-point favorite, which corresponds to a 69% chance of winning. Believe it or not, MSU was only a 7.5-point favorite over Western Michigan in Week 2, which seems light years away now, doesn't it? I will leave the real analysis to others, but once again, this feels like a game MSU should win under Mark Dantonio. UofM was able to run against IU’s D, and I see no reason why MSU can’t either, even if LJ is tied up in traffic school all day. Furthermore, I am also curious to see if MSU’s passing attack can have that break-out performance that seems to be simmering just below the surface. IU’s offense might be able to cause some trouble, but I think MSU’s D is going to want to get the sour taste out of their mouth from the 4th quarter of last week, and you know what you need to freshen up your mouth? Some place to spit.
National Overview
As usual the chart above gives my spreadsheet's picks for the week as a function of the Vegas spread. It has the look of another crazy weekend, as the vast majority of the games have spreads below 14 points. As such, the random number simulation suggests to expect 15.0 ± 3.2 upsets, with an >50% chance of between 13 and 17. But, a closer look at the individual match-ups suggest that most of the close games are actually in the Group of Five and not the Power 5. So, we could see a situation on Sunday where we are in the high double digits for upsets, yet without any major shake-up to the national scene. As for the spreadsheet's specific predictions, it likes 10 teams to cover including TCU (off scale and not shown), Bama, Minnesota, Miami, and Notre Dame and nine total upsets, including Ole Miss over LSU, Iowa State over TX Tech, and 7 group of five games. Once again, Rand()y picked against the Spartans. Seriously, dude, what is it with you? Meanwhile, the FPI has crawled back into its shell and only made 2 upset picks. My simulation suggests that the odds of only seeing 2 upsets or less is roughly 1 in 100,000. Strong work, ESPN.
Big Ten
Other than, of course, the epic battle that will be the tussle for the Old Brass Spittoon, there is really only one game of true consequence this week, and that is when a little team known as the Michigan Wolverine have to travel to Happy Valley to face Penn State (-12.5). While a meteor strike might be the truly best scenario for society, actually rooting for one seems a bit mean spirited. Assuming one team has to win, I calculate that PSU has over an 80% chance, so that would be the best bet. But, this one will be interesting no matter what happens. Penn State certainly seems like they are the better team by a fair margin, but that match-up of the Michigan D-line vs. the PSU O-line does give one pause. But, the mental aspect of this one might be more interesting, as Michigan honestly has had PSU’s number since the Lions joined the Big Ten. Last year was a prime example of that, although bad timing seemed to play the biggest role. The question is, does this mean that UofM is in PSU’s head? Or, does it mean that PSU is super motivated to prove their manhood? I honestly don’t know. If it is the former, this one could be a nail-biter, and if the Wolverines prevail, the Big Ten race suddenly gets much more interesting. Considering each team’s remaining schedule, a PSU loss probably helps MSU. But, if it is the latter, don’t think for a femtosecond that Franklin is going to hesitate in any way to run, run, run up the score as much as he possible can. And, let’s be honest, a Michigan loss probably also helps MSU, as it would knock Michigan pretty much out of the B1G race and further weaken the Big Blue Machine. That is ALWAYS a net positive for MSU. So, I view this one as a win-win. When taking both games into consideration, we can generate the MSU fan happiness matrix for the week:
As for the rest of the conference, Iowa (-1) does have to travel to Northwestern, and the outcome will tell MSU a lot about how next weekend might go, so that one is worth following. Elsewhere, both Purdue (-8) and Minnesota (-14.5) will try to get on the winning side of things against the two worst teams in the league (PU is at Rutgers while Minnesota hosts Illinois). Wisconsin will try to stay there as they play host to Maryland (+24). Ohio State will be at home taking a nap, if anyone needs them, as will Nebraska. That’s nice, because it will give Mike Riley a little more time to prep his house for sale and price out UHaul options.
Pac 12
At first glance, it looks as though the Pac 12 has a lot of good conference games this weekend, as there are three with spreads under 8 points. But, a closer look reveals that none of those games features any of the real conference contenders, as Stanford and Washington both have byes and Wazzou (-10.5) is hosting 1-3 Colorado. That said, the two Arizona schools are both sitting at 2-1 and in principle could stay in the mix in the Pac 12 South with wins. Unfortunately for the desert dwellers, both teams are on the road and both are underdogs: Arizona is at Cal (-1.5) and ASU is at Utah (-7). That all said, the game of the week out West (and possibly nationally) is USC’s trip to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish (-3.5). With both teams sitting at 1-loss, this one has the feel of a playoff contender elimination game. At least if Notre Dame losses, they really only hurt themselves. But if USC loses, the whole Pac 12 takes a hit, as the two Washington schools would be the only 1-loss teams left in the conference, and even if one of those teams runs the table, the potential match-up in the Pac 12 Title game would lose its luster. At that point, the entire remaining Pac 12 season might just be an exercise in spitting into the ocean, which is thankfully, nearby.
Big 12
As I look down at the list of potentially impactful conference games in the Power 5 this week outside of Penn State - Michigan, it is tough to find many. The closest thing that I could find is Oklahoma State’s (-6) game at Texas, which is at least a battle between two 2-1 teams in conference play. The Cowboys have a fairly manageable remaining schedule, so a win hear will keep them in the hunt for at least a NY6 bid. Interestingly, there are three other 2-1 teams and two of them look to be in good shape to make it to 3-1 as Oklahoma (-12.5) is favored at Kansas State, and West Virginia (-9.5) is favored at Baylor. The 5th team is actually Iowa State, who are 5-point underdogs at Texas Tech, but never fear, Cyclones, my spreadsheet likes you in an upset this week. That just might leave Texas Tech spitting mad. The school that all those 2-1 teams are chasing is 3-0 TCU, who by my math has a 99.8% chance to get to 4-0 as they play host to Kansas (+38). My spreadsheet like the Frogs by over 60.
ACC
After last week’s catastrophic shake-up in the conference previous Atlantic Division favorite Clemson and new Division leader NC State both decided to take the week off. So, as for important games, that does not leave a lot to discuss. Louisville travels to Florida State (-6.5) in sad match-up of teams that used to be good, and current Coastal Division leader Miami (-14.5) hosts Syracuse. That should be a cake walk for the Hurricanes, right? I mean, when was the last time Syracuse potentially ruined someone’s season? As for other teams to watch, Virginia hosts Boston College (+7) in an attempt to keep pace with Miami, while VA Tech (vs. UNC [+21]) and Georgia Tech (vs. Wake Forest [+8.5]) will try to stay within spitting distance.
SEC
If you thought the calendar in the ACC was a bit underwhelming, leave it to the SEC to underwhelm you some more. First of all, 5 of the 14 teams are on a bye (including Georgia) and a 6th team (Missouri) is hosting Idaho (+14). In the remaining match ups, only one of them, LSU (-7) at Ole Miss, has a spread under 10. That said, don’t look now, but LSU has as many loses in SEC play as they do to Sun Belt teams. Hmmmm. Bama is in action, but they are 33-point favorites over Tennessee at home, and the only real question is if Buch Jones makes it out of the stadium before he gets fired. Auburn (-13) will attempt to get off the schneid with a road trip to Razorback country, and no better way to get off the schneid than by humbling Brett Bielema. Finally, the big winner this weekend in the SEC might be Georgia, and they’re not even playing. If Mississippi State (-10) beats Kentucky, as expected, UGA all of a sudden has a 2-game lead in the East.
Independents / Group of Five
I already mentioned the USC-Notre Dame above, so the remaining focus, once again, falls on the AAC. One fairly big game was actually played on Thursday night, where Memphis went down to Houston and scored a minor upset, 42-38. This seemingly knocks Houston out of the AAC West race and puts the Tigers in great shape to win the Division, considering they already beat Navy. But, it is still a bit early as SMU and Tulane have only played two conference games each and still have only one conference loss. But, practically, the NY6 bid still seems like it will go to either USF or UCF at the end of the day. The Bulls (-11) are not expected to have too much trouble at Tulane this weekend, unless of course they spend a little too much time on Bourbon Street on Friday night. UCF, however, will have a nice little test at Navy (+6). If the Knights can get past the Midshipmen, they should be able to cruise to 10-0 before they close out the season with 2 home contests against South Florida and Georgia Tech. Other than that, I still have one eye on the Aztecs of San Diego State, who host Fresno State (+11.5). Surprisingly, Fresno is currently sitting at 3-0 and in first place in the Mountain West – West Division. If the Aztecs drop this one, they are suddenly in a big hole to even make the conference title game. As a final comment, I will reiterate that the Group of Five conferences have a ton of games this week with very tight spreads, so even if the results will not impact the national scene, the MACtion, Fun Belt games, and… C-USAction (?) should at least be entertaining.
Well, that’s all I have for this week, so Go State, Beat the Hosiers!
Well, even if the OBS isn’t really that old, it is still pretty stinking old, and more importantly it is current not in our possession. It was rudely stolen from our trophy case in small part due to a penalty in OT on a FG attempt that I had literally never heard of in 42 years of watching football. Neat. Well, Hosers, we want our trophy back, and not just to check to see if it still contains a couple of brass-coated loogies from Duffy and Biggie (a story that I just made up, yet desperately want to be true). No Hosers, we want the trophy back because it would honestly mean a whole lot to this MSU team. First, it would get MSU to 6-1 and officially become Bowl Eligible. That might seem silly to get excited about after the decade of success that we have seen, but that was the goal at the beginning of the season, and that means that every win from here on out is really just gravy. Second, another MSU win would almost certainly mean that this MSU team has taken another step in the process of growth. At this point, we really don't know how good this MSU team can be. If they can keep winning, keep growing, and keep getting better, who knows? MSU just might be able to win back another trophy in 2 weeks, and just maybe, be able to win yet another in early December. Am I overly optimistic? Probably. But don’t mind me; I am just spit-balling here.
As for the game itself, the Vegas line opened by my source as MSU as a 7-point favorite, which corresponds to a 69% chance of winning. Believe it or not, MSU was only a 7.5-point favorite over Western Michigan in Week 2, which seems light years away now, doesn't it? I will leave the real analysis to others, but once again, this feels like a game MSU should win under Mark Dantonio. UofM was able to run against IU’s D, and I see no reason why MSU can’t either, even if LJ is tied up in traffic school all day. Furthermore, I am also curious to see if MSU’s passing attack can have that break-out performance that seems to be simmering just below the surface. IU’s offense might be able to cause some trouble, but I think MSU’s D is going to want to get the sour taste out of their mouth from the 4th quarter of last week, and you know what you need to freshen up your mouth? Some place to spit.
National Overview
As usual the chart above gives my spreadsheet's picks for the week as a function of the Vegas spread. It has the look of another crazy weekend, as the vast majority of the games have spreads below 14 points. As such, the random number simulation suggests to expect 15.0 ± 3.2 upsets, with an >50% chance of between 13 and 17. But, a closer look at the individual match-ups suggest that most of the close games are actually in the Group of Five and not the Power 5. So, we could see a situation on Sunday where we are in the high double digits for upsets, yet without any major shake-up to the national scene. As for the spreadsheet's specific predictions, it likes 10 teams to cover including TCU (off scale and not shown), Bama, Minnesota, Miami, and Notre Dame and nine total upsets, including Ole Miss over LSU, Iowa State over TX Tech, and 7 group of five games. Once again, Rand()y picked against the Spartans. Seriously, dude, what is it with you? Meanwhile, the FPI has crawled back into its shell and only made 2 upset picks. My simulation suggests that the odds of only seeing 2 upsets or less is roughly 1 in 100,000. Strong work, ESPN.
Big Ten
Other than, of course, the epic battle that will be the tussle for the Old Brass Spittoon, there is really only one game of true consequence this week, and that is when a little team known as the Michigan Wolverine have to travel to Happy Valley to face Penn State (-12.5). While a meteor strike might be the truly best scenario for society, actually rooting for one seems a bit mean spirited. Assuming one team has to win, I calculate that PSU has over an 80% chance, so that would be the best bet. But, this one will be interesting no matter what happens. Penn State certainly seems like they are the better team by a fair margin, but that match-up of the Michigan D-line vs. the PSU O-line does give one pause. But, the mental aspect of this one might be more interesting, as Michigan honestly has had PSU’s number since the Lions joined the Big Ten. Last year was a prime example of that, although bad timing seemed to play the biggest role. The question is, does this mean that UofM is in PSU’s head? Or, does it mean that PSU is super motivated to prove their manhood? I honestly don’t know. If it is the former, this one could be a nail-biter, and if the Wolverines prevail, the Big Ten race suddenly gets much more interesting. Considering each team’s remaining schedule, a PSU loss probably helps MSU. But, if it is the latter, don’t think for a femtosecond that Franklin is going to hesitate in any way to run, run, run up the score as much as he possible can. And, let’s be honest, a Michigan loss probably also helps MSU, as it would knock Michigan pretty much out of the B1G race and further weaken the Big Blue Machine. That is ALWAYS a net positive for MSU. So, I view this one as a win-win. When taking both games into consideration, we can generate the MSU fan happiness matrix for the week:
As for the rest of the conference, Iowa (-1) does have to travel to Northwestern, and the outcome will tell MSU a lot about how next weekend might go, so that one is worth following. Elsewhere, both Purdue (-8) and Minnesota (-14.5) will try to get on the winning side of things against the two worst teams in the league (PU is at Rutgers while Minnesota hosts Illinois). Wisconsin will try to stay there as they play host to Maryland (+24). Ohio State will be at home taking a nap, if anyone needs them, as will Nebraska. That’s nice, because it will give Mike Riley a little more time to prep his house for sale and price out UHaul options.
Pac 12
At first glance, it looks as though the Pac 12 has a lot of good conference games this weekend, as there are three with spreads under 8 points. But, a closer look reveals that none of those games features any of the real conference contenders, as Stanford and Washington both have byes and Wazzou (-10.5) is hosting 1-3 Colorado. That said, the two Arizona schools are both sitting at 2-1 and in principle could stay in the mix in the Pac 12 South with wins. Unfortunately for the desert dwellers, both teams are on the road and both are underdogs: Arizona is at Cal (-1.5) and ASU is at Utah (-7). That all said, the game of the week out West (and possibly nationally) is USC’s trip to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish (-3.5). With both teams sitting at 1-loss, this one has the feel of a playoff contender elimination game. At least if Notre Dame losses, they really only hurt themselves. But if USC loses, the whole Pac 12 takes a hit, as the two Washington schools would be the only 1-loss teams left in the conference, and even if one of those teams runs the table, the potential match-up in the Pac 12 Title game would lose its luster. At that point, the entire remaining Pac 12 season might just be an exercise in spitting into the ocean, which is thankfully, nearby.
Big 12
As I look down at the list of potentially impactful conference games in the Power 5 this week outside of Penn State - Michigan, it is tough to find many. The closest thing that I could find is Oklahoma State’s (-6) game at Texas, which is at least a battle between two 2-1 teams in conference play. The Cowboys have a fairly manageable remaining schedule, so a win hear will keep them in the hunt for at least a NY6 bid. Interestingly, there are three other 2-1 teams and two of them look to be in good shape to make it to 3-1 as Oklahoma (-12.5) is favored at Kansas State, and West Virginia (-9.5) is favored at Baylor. The 5th team is actually Iowa State, who are 5-point underdogs at Texas Tech, but never fear, Cyclones, my spreadsheet likes you in an upset this week. That just might leave Texas Tech spitting mad. The school that all those 2-1 teams are chasing is 3-0 TCU, who by my math has a 99.8% chance to get to 4-0 as they play host to Kansas (+38). My spreadsheet like the Frogs by over 60.
ACC
After last week’s catastrophic shake-up in the conference previous Atlantic Division favorite Clemson and new Division leader NC State both decided to take the week off. So, as for important games, that does not leave a lot to discuss. Louisville travels to Florida State (-6.5) in sad match-up of teams that used to be good, and current Coastal Division leader Miami (-14.5) hosts Syracuse. That should be a cake walk for the Hurricanes, right? I mean, when was the last time Syracuse potentially ruined someone’s season? As for other teams to watch, Virginia hosts Boston College (+7) in an attempt to keep pace with Miami, while VA Tech (vs. UNC [+21]) and Georgia Tech (vs. Wake Forest [+8.5]) will try to stay within spitting distance.
SEC
If you thought the calendar in the ACC was a bit underwhelming, leave it to the SEC to underwhelm you some more. First of all, 5 of the 14 teams are on a bye (including Georgia) and a 6th team (Missouri) is hosting Idaho (+14). In the remaining match ups, only one of them, LSU (-7) at Ole Miss, has a spread under 10. That said, don’t look now, but LSU has as many loses in SEC play as they do to Sun Belt teams. Hmmmm. Bama is in action, but they are 33-point favorites over Tennessee at home, and the only real question is if Buch Jones makes it out of the stadium before he gets fired. Auburn (-13) will attempt to get off the schneid with a road trip to Razorback country, and no better way to get off the schneid than by humbling Brett Bielema. Finally, the big winner this weekend in the SEC might be Georgia, and they’re not even playing. If Mississippi State (-10) beats Kentucky, as expected, UGA all of a sudden has a 2-game lead in the East.
Independents / Group of Five
I already mentioned the USC-Notre Dame above, so the remaining focus, once again, falls on the AAC. One fairly big game was actually played on Thursday night, where Memphis went down to Houston and scored a minor upset, 42-38. This seemingly knocks Houston out of the AAC West race and puts the Tigers in great shape to win the Division, considering they already beat Navy. But, it is still a bit early as SMU and Tulane have only played two conference games each and still have only one conference loss. But, practically, the NY6 bid still seems like it will go to either USF or UCF at the end of the day. The Bulls (-11) are not expected to have too much trouble at Tulane this weekend, unless of course they spend a little too much time on Bourbon Street on Friday night. UCF, however, will have a nice little test at Navy (+6). If the Knights can get past the Midshipmen, they should be able to cruise to 10-0 before they close out the season with 2 home contests against South Florida and Georgia Tech. Other than that, I still have one eye on the Aztecs of San Diego State, who host Fresno State (+11.5). Surprisingly, Fresno is currently sitting at 3-0 and in first place in the Mountain West – West Division. If the Aztecs drop this one, they are suddenly in a big hole to even make the conference title game. As a final comment, I will reiterate that the Group of Five conferences have a ton of games this week with very tight spreads, so even if the results will not impact the national scene, the MACtion, Fun Belt games, and… C-USAction (?) should at least be entertaining.
Well, that’s all I have for this week, so Go State, Beat the Hosiers!
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