Three weeks ago, as MSU prepared to play Minnesota, my
spreadsheet suggested that the Gophers were the 3rd best team
remaining on MSU’s schedule. A week later, it seemed apparent that Indiana was
likely a little better than the Gophers, and the game play bore that out. (For
those of you that cannot remember what happened last week, MSU won 17-9 after
trailing 9-3 late in the 4th quarter. Your brain likely blocked out
the entire 3.5 hours for self-preservation. Don’t bother to try to find the
replay on BTN. Your brain has suffered enough.) Now that Week 9 has arrived and
we find ourselves lined up to face a rapidly improving Northwestern team, it
once again appears that this week’s opponent is likely better than Indiana, and
it will take a sharp effort from MSU to earn a victory. It seems as though every MSU-Northwestern game
in recent memory has been an interesting one, especially the games in Evanston.
One only has to think back to the record-setting comeback that John L’s team
back in 2006 as an example. This week’s game that similar “anything can and will
happen” feel. Based on my source, the game opened as a pick’em in Vegas, and
the spread seems to be bouncing around, mostly on MSU’s side. My spreadsheet
agrees, as it likes MSU by 3.3. ESPN’s
FPI is taking the opposite view, however, and likes the Cats by 3.9. So, it
seems obvious that this could be a tight game, the final result of which might
just be a coin flip. The result of that flip will goa long way in defining
exactly how this season will be judged in retrospect. If MSU can win, the floor
of the reason would seem to be 9-3 in the regular season, which means MSU would
have a late December or early January shot at a 10th win. Moreover, MSU would enter the next weekend’s
contest in the Top 15 and poised to contend for the Big Ten title or at least a
NY6 slot with at least one upset. But, if MSU loses, 8-4 looks very likely,
which is nothing to sneeze at, but which would be a mild disappointment based
on the record so far. As for the
Wildcats, this looks to be the hardest game left on their schedule, so a win
for them would mean they would likely finish at 9-3 overall, which might be good
enough to see them ranked and in a better bowl than MSU at the end of the
season. Much like the past 3 weeks, I really have no idea how this game is
going to shake out, but I will continue to be the optimist and say MSU will
find a way to eke out a close one, and history will judge the 2017 MSU team as
a tremendous come-back success story.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above compares the opening Vegas spreads
for this week to my spreadsheet’s predictions. Last week at this time, I
observed that there were a lot of games with tight spreads, but a closer look
at each match-up showed that essentially all of the tight spreads were in the
Group of Five. This week, there are also a whole lot of games with tight
spreads. I count 24 games with spreads at a TD or less. But this week, the
majority of those games are in the Power 5, and many of those involve teams
with very similar, if not identical records. So, to me, this Saturday looks
like Judgement Day and a chance to separate the men from the boys. Or, perhaps
a chance to protect John Conner from a killer robot from the future. It’s hard
to say for sure. My spreadsheet likes a
total of 9 highlighted picks against the spread, notably Washington to cover
over UCLA, Georgia to cover over the Gators, and Fresno State to cover over
UNLV. The upset simulation suggests to
expect a total of 13.8 +/- 3.1 upsets, and my spreadsheet specifically likes 10
upsets including Penn State over Ohio State, Arizona State over USC, Wake over
Louisville, Oregon over Utah, Cal over Colorado, and UCONN over Mizzou. Our old
friend Rand()y finally did not pick MSU to lose this weekend, but probably only
because the game is a pick’em. Instead Rand()y decided to take Rutgers over
Michigan and Texas Tech over Oklahoma. That’s more like it, computer.
Big Ten
The theme “Judgment Day,” applies perfectly to the Big Ten
this week as the obvious conference game of the year will take place Saturday
night in Columbus. Ohio State (-5) faces Penn State in a contest that sure
feels like it will decide the conference champ and likely also a playoff berth.
I have been going back and forth on this game since the summertime, first
thinking OSU would likely win, then deciding that PSU’s experience would win
the day, and then returning to the opinion that the surging home Buckeyes will
emerge victorious. Now, I just flat out don’t know, but my spreadsheet likes
the Lions in the upset. If nothing else, that could make for a very fun weekend
in East Lansing next week, as long as the Spartans can also keep up their end
of the bargain. Outside of Columbus and Evanston, there aren’t too many other
contests that will likely impact the overall conference race, as Wisconsin
(-26) is facing Illinois. The battle for 4th place in the east in
Ann Arbor also sees the Wolverines (-21.5) as big favorites over the Scarlet
Knights. But the remaining 3 games will impact the final standings and will
likely go a long way in determining the final bowl game pecking order. Indiana
has drawn one of the nastiest schedules in the country this year, but even
though the Hoosiers are sitting at 0-4 in conference play, they are 3-4 overall
and need just 3 more wins to become bowl eligible. With Rutgers, Illinois, and
Purdue still on the schedule, IU is in reasonable shape to get there, but a win
this week at Maryland (+4.5) would significantly boost their margin of error.
Considering the Terrapins are also sitting at 3-4, but with Michigan, MSU, and
Penn State still on the schedule, it seems unlikely a that a Maryland win would
do them any good anyway. In other words, the Turtles should just go ahead and
turtle. Similarly, another pair of 3-4 teams will square off when Purdue (-5.5)
hosts Nebraska. Both teams have a bit of a steep climb to get to 6-wins, but
Purdue’s chances certainly look better than the Huskers at this point. That is
perhaps generous, as I am finding it hard to identify another win on Nebraska’s
scheduled, history would likely judge a Boiler loss rather harshly. Finally, Iowa (-9) hosts Minnesota this week,
in a battle of 4-3 teams. The Hawkeye are in good shape to get to 6 wins
eventually, but the Gophers likely need this one to avoid being stuck in
dry-dock for the holidays. Also, I hear
the winner of the game gets to keep a pig named Floyd. Sometimes I just love
being a Midwesterner.
Pac 12
While there are no obvious game-of-the-week type contests
out west this week, there are a couple of interesting match-ups that could bear
on the final standings of each division, and in total there are 4 games with
spreads under 5. That doesn’t even count the Thursday night Stanford – Oregon State
game with was supposed to be a 20+ point blowout. With a lot of the focus in
the conference landing squarely on the state of Washington so far this year, it
is the state of Arizona that I will be watching for this weekend. Both desert
schools scored upset wins last week, and this week they are looking for more
with much higher stakes. Arizona (+3) hosts Washington State, while the Sun
Devils (+3) host USC. With Zona, ASU,
and USC all have only one loss in the South Division, the results of those two
games will go a long way in shaking out the final standing. My spreadsheet
likes ASU for an upset. Furthermore, an upset of the Cougars by the Wildcats
would also throw the North race into a bit if chaos. Washington (-17) seems
quite safe as home, but then again, we said the same thing about Stanford, and
they wound up winning by just one point.
ACC
Tight spreads abound in the ACC as well, as three games
opened under four points. One of those was Florida State’s road trip to Boston
College, which opened with the Noles as 3.5-point favorites, but ended with BC
as a 32-point victor. I think that it is safe to say that the wheels are
officially off FSU right now. The other two tight spreads feature Louisville at
Wake Forest (+2.5) and Virginia at Pitt (-3). My spreadsheet likes Wake for the
upset. But those games are not likely to impact the final standings too much.
In contrast, the teams near the top of the standing are not expected to be
challenged this week as Clemson is a 15.5-point favorite vs. GA Tech, Miami is
-20 to UNC, and Virginia Tech is -16.5 vs. Duke. But, the biggest game
involving an ACC team this week is NC State’s road trip to South Bend, where
the Irish are favored by 8.5. Once again, this game has the flavor of a
play-off elimination game, as especially Notre Dame continues to build its case
to be included in the Final Four.
Big 12
Although there are no games with super-tight spreads on the
plains this week, we will certainly start to see some separation by the day’s
end. Perhaps most intriguing is TCU’s visit to Ames to face the suddenly hot
Cyclones (+7). An upset here would really make the race interesting and one
could even argue that Iowa State would be the favorite, as bizarre as that
sounds. The other notable match-up pits Oklahoma State (-7) against West
Virginia in Morgantown in a battle of one-conference-loss teams. Considering
the loser will have 2 loses and likely be out of the conference race this is
clearly a game to keep as eye on. I am
not picking an upset here, but the fact that both favored teams are on the road
really makes me wonder if me might see one. I will go ahead an issue an upset
watch. Meanwhile, Oklahoma (-18) seems a bit safe back in Norman against Texas
Tech, but you never know, as Rand()y like the Red Raiders.
SEC
At this point in the SEC, we only care about two teams: Bama
and Georgia, and Bama isn’t even going to bother to play this week. But, Georgia sure is as it is time for that
cherished old tradition of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (and
cautionary tale of poor venue negotiation on the part of some long dead Georgia
athletic director), where Georgia is favored over Florida by 14. I guess games such as Mississippi State at
Texas A&M (pick’em) and Tennessee at Kentucky (-4.5) should be entertaining
and will certainly impact the bowl pecking order, but it’s hard to get too
excited about them. Personally, I am more curious to see if Missouri (-11) can
avoid the upset at UCONN. My spreadsheet like the Huskies.
Independent / Group of Five
As mentioned above, for the second week in a row, Notre Dame
is playing to stay alive in the hunt for a playoff spot. As for the Group of
Five, the most interesting match-up appears to be Houston at South Florida
(-10), as UCF is playing FCS opponent Austin Peay, while possible contenders
Memphis and SMU have already won earlier in the week. Not to judge, but the
action in the Group of Five looks to be a bit slow this week.
That’s all for now, Go State, Beat the Wildcats!
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