If the season ended today… well that would be super weird, because most teams have only played half of their schedule (I have always hated that phrase). But, my spreadsheet now has enough data that I can start to use it to forecast forward a bit, using predicted point spreads, to start to take educated guesses as to how each conference will shake out. Since we are almost at the mid-point of the season, today seems like a good day to peak into the crystal ball.
ACC
Leading contenders:
Clemson: based on projected spreads they will be favored in all remaining games. So, they are favored to win 12 regular season games. Also, based on the chance of victory in each game (extracted from the spread) I calculate a 71% chance that the Tiger will run the table. So, from here on out, I will use the following short hand:
Clemson: 12 wins, 71% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: @ NC State (+15.8, projected)
Also
Miami: 12 wins, 37% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: home vs. Notre Dame (+2.9)
Darkhorse:
Virginia Tech: 10 wins, 8.5% to run the table (11-1). Toughest game left: @ Miami (+10.5)
So, a Clemson vs. Miami game in the ACC title game seems likely, although a Virginia Tech win at Miami would likely put the Hokies there instead. I project Clemson to be a 3.9-point favorite over Miami on a neutral field.
Big 10
Leading Contenders:
Penn State: 12 wins, 40% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: @OSU (+4.3). [Yes, you read that correctly, my spreadsheet currently favors Penn State to come into Columbus and win]
Ohio State: 10 wins, 13% to run the table (11-1). Toughest game left: vs. Penn State (-4.3)
Wisconsin: 11 wins, 5.4% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: vs. Michigan (-0.5) [My model has the Badgers as a narrow underdog at home to the Wolverines, and as only a narrow favorite for the last four games on the schedule. Odd]
Here the spreadsheet picks a Wisconsin vs. Penn State (-18) game in Indy, with the Lions as a big favorite
Big 12
Leading Contenders:
TCU: 11 wins, 15% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: @ Oklahoma (-1.5)
Oklahoma: 10 wins, 9.3% to run the table (11-1). Toughest game left: @ Oklahoma State (-2.1)
Oklahoma State: 10 wins, 8.7% to run the table (11-1). Toughest game left: @ Texas (-2.3)
Based on this analysis, TCU would emerge as the Big 12 Champ, but the single loss would likely be enough to keep them out of the playoffs.
SEC
Leading Contenders:
Alabama: 12 wins, 76% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: @ Auburn (+12.3)
Auburn: 9 wins, 1.4% to run the table (11-1). Toughest games left: vs. Alabama (-12.3), vs. Georgia (-15.2)
Georgia: 12 wins, 82% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: @ Auburn (+15.2)
Right now, my spreadsheet likes Alabama to face Georgia in the SEC title game, but it is clear that both teams need to go through Auburn to get there. But, here is the fun part: my spreadsheet currently has Georgia as the #1 team in the country and a 4.1-point favorite over Bama in the SEC Title game. Sure, I will believe that when I see, but that is what the math says.
Pac 12:
Leading Contenders:
Washington: 12 wins, 71% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: @ Washington State (+15)
Washington State: 11 wins, 5.6% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: vs. Washington (-15)
USC: 10 wins, 4.5% to run the table (11-1). Toughest game left: @ Notre Dame (-15.9)
It looks pretty clear that the Apple Bowl winner will have an inside track to a possible playoff berth. Right now, I project that to be Washington, who would also be a 13-point favorite over USC in the Pac 12 title game.
Group of Five:
Leading Contenders:
San Diego State: 12 wins, 66% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: vs. Boise State (+7, which is the actual spread, since the game is this weekend)
South Florida: 9 wins, 0.2% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: @ UCF (-28.3)
UCF: 12 wins, 74% to run the table (12-0). Toughest game left: vs. GA Tech (+20.3)
Houston: 11 wins, 17% to run the table (11-1). Toughest game left: vs. Navy (+6.7)
Now, this analysis really surprises me, as my spreadsheet seems to be absolutely in love with UCF and not with the presumed favorite, USF. I doubt that the Knights are quite that good (for example to be favored by 20 against an ACC team), but this did get my attention. I do project UCF (-14.6) to beat Houston in the AAC Title game, and nudge out San Diego State for the NY6 bid, as UCF would have two Power 5 Wins (over GA Tech and Maryland) compared to the Aztecs (who did beat Stanford) but who also play in a weaker conference.
NY6 Bowls
Based on the information above, it looks like a lot of teams still have a great shot to go undefeated. I can calculate that as well, and the number I get is 5.4. That seems ridiculously high and will almost certainly not happen, but the numbers above likely do give a sense of the teams that are more or less likely to run the table. If the above comes to pass, I would line up the NY6 Bowls as follows:
Playoffs:
Sugar Bowl: #1 Clemson vs. #4 Washington
Rose Bowl: #2 Georgia vs. #3 Penn State
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Miami
Cotton Bowl: TCU vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: Washington State vs. Oklahoma
Peach Bowl: UCF vs. Notre Dame
I think the “last two teams out” would be Oklahoma State and Wisconsin. OK State who would be really mad that the Sooners got their spot, since I have the Cowboys beating them. But I figure that Oklahoma’s win over Ohio State will tip the balance. As for the Badgers, I see them getting compared to Notre Dame, and considering both would have 2 losses, I think Notre Dame would have better wins.
You can also see from this analysis what the keys games left in the season are and how the outcome of those games could impact the big picture:
-Clemson is very likely to win the ACC and make the playoffs, while the winner of the Miami-VA Tech game will get the Orange Bowl. Also note that I am using “defending champ” privilege to give Clemson the #1 seed.
-The Penn State-OSU winner is likely to win the Big Ten and play in the Rose Bowl as a playoff team
-If Wisconsin beats Michigan, I think the Badgers would get Notre Dame’s slot in the Peach Bowl
-The winner of the Apple Bowl (Washington vs. WSU) is likely to make the playoffs and the loser will get the Fiesta Bowl
-Alabama and Georgia look to be on a collision course for the SEC Title, but will the loser make the playoff’s anyway? It does seem hard to put Bama at #5… That would slide a Big Ten team into the Orange Bowl instead of an SEC team, and maybe drop Washington to the Cotton Bowl
-The Big 12 looks to be the most wide open, with the lowest probability of getting a play-off bid, but if someone else slips up, they are right back in the mix.
-The Miami-Notre Dame game is also pretty big, although it would not significantly hurt Miami if the Canes lose, as the Orange Bowl needs an ACC team.
Finally, as for MSU and UofM, the analysis has both teams finishing with L’s to PSU and OSU to finish 9-3. In the scenario above, Wisconsin would get the Citrus Bowl, and the Outback Bowl would then half to pick either MSU or UofM, and will all know how that will likely play out. That would drop MSU to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego against a Pac 12 team, most likely USC or Stanford would be my guess. But, if Wisconsin does beat Michigan, I think the Badgers slide up into the NY6, MSU slides ahead of Michigan to land in the Citrus Bowl, against likely Auburn or maybe even Texas A&M. So, the results of the Michigan-Wisconsin game could be big for MSU.
Enjoy!
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