2017, Week 10 Recap (Thunderstruck)

I must admit that I am not an AC/DC fan. Not my cup of tea. That said, like any good Spartan fan, I have grown a bit of an affection for the AC/DC track Thunderstruck. As those who attend MSU home games are certainly aware, the song is an integral part of the team’s entrance ritual, the highlight of which is the equal parts awesome and ridiculous cartoon clip of the Spartan statue jumping from his stand, leaping across campus to face a legion of opposing players, culminating in a random act of vandalism on the flag that they (for some unknown reason) are carrying with them.  (That’ll teach ‘em to come to OUR HOUSE, WITH A FLAG!) But, alas this week, due to getting home late Friday night from an international trip coupled with a noon kick-off, I did not arrive in my seats until seconds before kickoff. As such, I missed Thunderstruck and the ceremonial destruction of a cartoon PSU flag. Pity. Then, after roughly 1.5 quarters of football, it became clear that my 5-yr was not dressed warmly enough to endure any further, even before the rain began to fall. I knew I was not going to make it to the 4^th quarter. Then, of course, came the actual thunder, which comes as a package deal with dangerous, stadium-clearing lightning. Sweet. So, for only the second time that I can remember since my Freshman year in 1994 (excluding my grad school years, and one blowout of Rutgers with a 2-year old) I left early. Pity. For as I watched the game unfold, at first in person and later from the comfort of my living room, I was a bit awestruck that neither team even attempted to establish the run. It was like a Pac 12 game broke out, but with better defense. As the game went on, I became rather moonstruck by this young, scrappy MSU squad that just kept fighting and making plays until the very end. As the final seconds ticked away, and Coghlin’s kick sailed cleanly through the uprights to seal yet another win over a Top 10 team, I was dumbstruck.  Dantonio had done it again. He had taken yet another band of under-rated and under-appreciated young men, molded them, and brought them to the brink of a championship, and he did it in the heels of MSU’s worst season in several generations. I am pretty much the most optimistic MSU fan that you will likely meet, and even I thought never really thought this team would be sitting at 7-2 right now. It is simply incredible. And, the final kick can’t help but remind us all of an eerily similar kick made by an MSU kicker just two years ago in a place called Columbus: the place where Spartans go to crush the dreams of Buckeyes. Who knows, maybe after next weekend, the whole country will be thunderstruck by yet another upset victory by the boys in Green and White.

National Overview

As usual, the chart above shows the actual game results in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. A total of 10 teams beat the spread by over 10 points, notably Washington, Memphis, Utah, Wisconsin, and Missouri, while Mississippi State, Troy, and Arkansas all failed to cover by a wide margin. As I predicted, the total number of upsets wound up on the high side at 18. The notable upsets included MSU’s win, obviously, in addition to Northwestern over Nebraska, K-State over Texas Tech, Miami over Virginia Tech, Oklahoma over OK State, Ole Miss over Kentucky, and Virginia over Georgia Tech. But, by far the biggest upset was Iowa’s thrashing of Ohio State by over 30 points, despite being 17-point underdogs and having only about an 11% chance to win at all.  As for my spreadsheet’s performance, it was not great, going 3-4 in highlighted covers (55.4% so far for the season), 3-4 in upset picks (41.1% for the season), and a miserable 26-34 ATS for the full week's schedule (50.7% for the season). My only consolation is that the FPI did even worse ATS (24-36, 52.0% for the season), but it was also 4-5 for upsets (44.7%).  Due in large part to the high number of upsets, Rand()y also had a decent week at 8-7 (34.2% for the year). Now, let’s take a quick spin around the country to check on the highlighted regional action.

Big Ten

From the overall point of view, the B1G did not do itself any favors this week. If we go on the theory that a team needs to finish the regular season with no more than 1 loss to have a shot at the playoffs, the Big Ten went from having three legitimate contenders to only one after this weekend. Moreover, even though the lone undefeated B1G team, Wisconsin, did manage to blowout Indiana, their future strength of schedule certainly took a beating. Now the best that they can hope for is beating a 2-loss team in Indy in addition to beating a now unranked Michigan team in 2 weeks. That does not seem to be a recipe for a Top 4 finish. From MSU’s perspective, while watching Iowa just destroy Ohio State was, you know, kind of hilarious, it doesn’t really help the Spartan’s cause. Even if OSU was 6-0 in conference play, the winner next week would still have the inside track to Indy. Now, the Buckeyes are just pissed. I would rather have them fat and sassy. Oh well, I just hope Urban was able to find some cold Little Caesars on the way out of Iowa City. In other B1G new, Northwestern eked out their 3^rd straight victory in OT, which keeps them mathematically in the West Division race and well positioned to finish at 9-3. Other than that, the rest of the games simply involved mediocre to bad teams beating other mediocre to bad teams. At this point, exactly half the conference is still trending in the direction of staying home for the holidays. Finally, apparently Michigan won a jug this weekend. No one cares.

ACC

It was a big week in the ACC as both Divisions saw contests that essentially confirmed the two teams that will now almost certainly meet in Orlando for the conference title with a likely playoff berth. In the Atlantic Division, Clemson took care of the Wolf Pack and now has a magic number of one to clinch the Division. With the limping Seminoles coming to Clemson next weekend, this will likely be over quickly. If the Tigers falter, NC State still has 3 conference games left and they would need to win out to make it to Orlando. In the Coastal Division, Miami scored a mild upset of Virginia Tech in Coral Gables to claim a commanding 2-game lead. The undefeated Hurricanes also have a magic number of one and it looks to me that Virginia is the only team mathematically still in the race after UVA’s upset of Georgia Tech. Considering the Cavaliers end the season playing Louisville, Miami, and Virginia Tech suggests the Canes have an even better chance than Clemson does to represent their Division in Orlando.  The only other drama remaining is to see how many of the seven or so ACC teams sitting at 4-5 wins will be able to make it to 0.500 and bowl eligibility. Right now, my spreadsheet likes 9 ACC teams to make it, including Boston College, Florida State, Louisville, and Wake Forest, but not Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, or Syracuse.

Big 12

The Great Plains also saw some great action this weekend. After I floated the idea that the Iowa State Cyclones were the new conference favorite, ISU promptly flew out to West Virginia only to lay an egg and drop to 4-2 in conference play. Thanks guys. We give you Korie Lucious and Chris Allen, and this is how you repay me? Oklahoma survived the Bedlam shootout with the Cowboys and joined TCU (who corralled the Longhorns, 24-7) at the top of the standings. I also realized for the first time this weekend that the Big 12 will hold a Championship game this year, pitting the two teams that finish first and second after the full round-robin schedule is complete. Really? What ever happened to the “one true champion?” Shmucks. The rule is that if you can’t negotiate the necessary 12-teams needed for 2 divisions, you don’t get a title game. In other words, you don’t deserve nice things, Big 12. Considering that Oklahoma and TCU square off next weekend and the conference currently has three teams with 2-losses in conference, I guess that will at least keep the remaining few weeks interesting, which is so not like the Big 12. Just out of spite, I hope the 2-seed wins the game and screws the conference out of a playoff berth. Yeah, that’s right. Finally, I would be remiss if I did not congratulate the Baylor Bears, a team picked by some (**cough** ESPN **cough**) to be a borderline Top 25 team this year on their first win of the season, in November, against Kansas. Wow. Congratulations indeed.

Pac 12

It was a bit of a sleepy weekend out West this week as the upset bug that bit so many teams passed right over the entire conference. The only result of note was Wazzou’s defeat of Stanford which allows the Cougars to stay in the race for the North Division. Meanwhile, down South, USC took care of business with Arizona and now have a magic number of one with two very winnable games at Colorado and vs. UCLA remaining on the schedule. In other action, Arizona State, Cal, and Utah all won to make it to the cusp of bowl eligibility. Based on my projections, the Sun Devils are in great shape to make a bowl, Oregon and Utah should also get to 6 wins, but Cal, Colorado and UCLA are only projected to get to 5.

SEC

Everything basically went as expected down South this week, as Bama took care of LSU, Auburn took care of Texas A&M, and Georgia officially won the East by beating South Carolina, coupled with Kentucky’s upset loss to Ole Miss. The focus now turns, really, to Auburn. The Tigers will get a crack at Bama at home in the Iron Bowl to close the regular season, but even if they can upset Saban, it likely will not matter at all if they can’t upset Georgia (also at home) next week. At this point the only drama left is trying to figure out if the Selection Committee would take both Alabama and Georgia after the SEC Title game. If both teams beat Auburn, the likely answer seems to be “yes.” I just hope they don’t do something stupid and put the SEC Title game winner as the 1-seed and the loser as the 4-seed such that a rematch happens in the National Semifinals. No. One. Wants. That. NO ONE. That all said, looking at Alabama's actual accomplishments makes me wonder if they have really earned that current #2 ranking. More on this later... In other amusing SEC news, Florida got absolutely hammered by Missouri, Mississippi State struggled to beat UMASS, and the fighting Brett Bielema’s managed to beat Coastal Carolina (yes, that is a real Division 1 team) by a single point. (SEC! SEC! SEC!) Right now, the SEC has 7 teams over the 6-win threshold and I project that three additional teams (A&M, Vandy, and Missouri) will join them. It also looks quite likely that the Florida-Florida State match-up in a few weeks might decide with of those two teams gets to 6 wins. Solid.

Independents / Group of Five

The fighting Irish, as I predicted, did struggle a little with Wake Forest, but did wind up winning by 11 to keep their Playoff hopes alive. With 2 tough games remaining and a solid resume behind them, I believe the Irish control their own destiny. On the Group of Five front, AAC front-runners, UCF and Memphis survived their tricky road tests this week at SMU and at Tulsa to stay at the front of the pack. UCF still needs to get by South Florida, but they do draw the Bulls at home, and I predict the Knights will be favored by 10+ points. Memphis has a one game lead in the West with two games to go and a win over SMU at home in 2 weeks would seal the deal. It should also be pointed out that UCF has already beaten Memphis earlier in the year by 27, so are clearly the favorite. As for potential other spoilers, USF could still make a late push and win the AAC. All other options seem increasingly unlikely, but Boise State (7-2) and Toledo (8-1) would at least get a quick look from the Committee.

I think at this point in the year, we have a pretty good idea about who is good and who is not, so today I will close with a new(ish) feature:

If the season ended today, that would be weird. So, how do we project it to end?

I’m glad you asked. I tried this exercise a few weeks ago and it went rather poorly, so why not try it again? If I use my spreadsheet to pick the winners of the remaining games, it is fairly straightforward to predict who will win each conference and what the NY6 pairings will be. Here is what I project:

Notre Dame wins out. Clemson will beat Miami to win the ACC. Ohio State will beat Wisconsin to win the B1G. TCU will beat Oklahoma twice to win the Big 12. Washington will beat USC to win the Pac 12, and Georgia will beat Alabama to win the SEC. UCF will win out to claim the NY6 berth. Nothing is a real surprise here, except perhaps TCU and Georgia.  In this scenario, if I use my power ranking to evaluate wins and losses, I would rank the final Top 11 as:

1. Georgia
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. TCU
5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. Wisconsin
8. Washington
9. Miami
10. Oklahoma
11. Penn State

If I look at the comparison of the schedule for the possible playoff contenders, the two teams that stand out with particularly weak strengths of schedule are Washington and (interestingly) Alabama. Therefore, my BY6 Bowl pairings would be:

Sugar Bowl: 1. Georgia vs. 4. TCU
Rose Bowl: 2. Clemson vs. 3. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. Wisconsin
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Peach Bowl: UCF vs. Penn State

The Orange, Fiesta, and Cotton bowl match-ups are a bit arbitrary, but if nothing else my pairings avoid recent rematches and teams that have recently played in that bowl (i.e Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl, or an OSU-Oklahoma rematch), so I think it makes sense.  That all said, expect at least 2-3 of the teams above to get upset this week, just to mess with me.

That is all for now, as always, Go State, beat the Buckeyes!