It’s Week 11, folks, and MSU is playing for a Championship.
Those words seem so crazy just to type, let alone say out loud, but
essentially, it’s true. Granted, it is just
a Division Championship, but if MSU does win it, it will be MSU and Dantonio’s
4th appearance in Indy. If my math is correct, no other B1G coach
has been there more than twice. Let that sink in for a moment. Considering what
MSU, as a community, has been through over the past year to 18 months, a win
this weekend in C-Bus would be flat out monumental. Furthermore, I know what
some of you might say, and that is that MSU still has two games to play after
this week’s clash with the Buckeyes. This is true. However, a one-game lead over a group of
2-loss teams where you own the head-to-head tiebreaker over each means MSU
would need to lose both remaining
games against Maryland and at Rutgers to blow it. Possible? Yes. But, based on
my projected spreads, the odds of that happening are less than 1% (barring some
sort of catastrophic injury or even rash of injuries.) So, if other words, Saturday’s
game against Ohio State is kind of a big deal.
As for the game itself, for me, I think this one once again
comes down to the mental state of the opponent. At this point, we know
more-or-less what MSU is, and I think we know more-or-less what to expect. MSU
can move the ball a little, can defend quite well, and if they take care of the
ball and avoid mistakes, they are a pain in the rear to beat. It is possible
that MSU could become a little more than that. After all, if the O-line and run
game get going and if the pass rush could somehow come alive, suddenly MSU
looks like a legit Top 5 or Top 10 team. But honestly, I have been waiting for
those things to happen for about a month now, and I am not sure we will see it
this year. I think they are who they are at this point. But, what about OSU?
Honestly, I have no idea. Early in the year, they looked vulnerable to maybe
even weak. A few weeks later, they looked unstoppable, and then last week… they
got destroyed in Iowa City. Take J.T. Barrett, for example: in 2014, he broke
my heart one evening in Spartan Stadium where he seemed to quite literally to
know MSU’s play calls and had the goods to exploit it. In the years since, he
has been alternatively Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Buckeye. Who is this guy? Which one will play on
Saturday? Everyone knows that Ohio State is stocked with “talent,” but my
question is simple: are they a football team or are they a just a collection of
talent? In reality, they might be the later, but (unfortunately for us) based
on last week’s performance and the obvious stakes, they might be able to masquerade
as the former for an afternoon. At the root of my question, however, is head
man himself. I must admit, I have never been sold completely on Urban Meyer. I
think he has proven that he can coach up other
people’s players, but I am not convinced that he can maintain a program. He
is now in Year 6. These are his guys. Incidentally, he only lasted 6 years in
Gainesville before the wheels came off the bus down there. It begs the question
of how tightly are those wheels on the C-Bus? Are his players circling the
wagons or are they pointing fingers? The game continues to evolve each year. Has
Meyer really evolved with it? Is there actually something to the whole “stealing
signals” thing that has been figured out by opposing coaches? (This is a bit “tin-foil
hat”, I realize, but remember MSU turned their benches around in the middle of the
2013 B1G Title Game for some reason, and I pretty sure is wasn’t just a
stretching exercise. Also… 2014.)
So, add it up, and I don’t know how this will shake out. My
source says that the spread opened at -17, which translates to only an 11%
chance to win for MSU. (Ironically, OSU opened at exactly the same line last
week in Iowa City) My spreadsheet thinks the game will be tighter, but still
favors OSU by 11.5. If the beat down
last week had not happened, I would be feeling guardedly optimistic about this
one. But, that certainly gives me pause.
I suspect that Urban got the torque wrench out and spent the week tightening
the lug nuts on the Bus. Chances are good they will hold. Chances are maybe
50-50 that they are nice and tight for a week and MSU might get blitzed. But,
there is also that chance that the threads are more striped than anyone outside
of C-Bus knows. If that is the case, MSU fans on Sunday might just be singing: “the
wheels on C-Bus they came right off, came right off, came right off, the wheels
on the C-Bus they came right off and now we’re going to town.” (Indy, that is.)
National Overview
As usual, the chart above compares my spreadsheet’s picks
for the week to the opening Vegas lines. My math only likes 5 highlighted
covers and all of those are Group of 5 teams (North Texas, Western, Marshall,
Fresno, and UNLV). The stronger correlation between my picks and Vegas as the weeks
go on I believe is just a matter of finally having enough data points. Overall,
the simulation suggests to expect 14.9 ± 3.1 upsets this week. I really
expected more week-to-week variation in this value, but there really hasn't
been. As for specific upsets, the spreadsheet likes 8 total including West
Virginia over K-State, Wake Forest over ‘Cuse, Iowa State over OK State, TCU
over Oklahoma, and B.C. over NC State. Oddly, the FPI crawled back into its
shell with only 2 upset picks, but one is Auburn over Georgia. Bold! Finally, Rand()y
is feeling randy and picked MSU to beat OSU. I honestly don’t know if this is a
good sign, per se, but… Good Boy! Now, let’s take our weekly spin around the
country.
Big Ten
The MSU-Ohio State game is obviously huge, as the winner
will almost certainly earn the bid from the East to go to the B1G Championship
Game. It would take an enormous screw up for any other scenario to come to
pass, like both MSU and Penn State losing to Rutgers and Michigan winning out. (Incidentally,
PSU is a 31.5-point favorite against Rutgers this week.) The action out West this week also includes at
least one interesting game. The main event over in the Central Time Zone is
Iowa’s visit to MadTown to face the Badgers (-13.5). Despite the Hawkeyes
glorious upset last weekend, they remain almost a 2 TD underdog. If the Badger’s
survive, they clinch the West and can spend the next two weeks packing their
bags for Indy and working on their Playoff resume, which of course, involves a
beat down of Michigan in two weeks. Godspeed, Badgers! We’re all counting on
you. The rest of the action: Indiana (-9) at Illinois, Michigan (-13.5) at
Maryland in the DJ Durkin Bowl, Nebraska at Minnesota (-2.5), and Purdue at
Northwestern (-6) is just flat out not that interesting. The only notable
possibilities are the chances that Purdue scores an upset to get one step
closer to bowl eligibility, and the chance that Michigan is so sad to have to
watch its two rivals play for a defacto championship that they lose to Maryland
and further their own embarrassment. My math pegs that one at 17%.
Big 12
Conventional wisdom suggests that there is only one big game
in the Big 12 this week, when in reality, there are two. The “big game” is TCU’s
trip to Norman to face the Sooners (-8) with sole possession of first place on
the line. The winner will immediately
become (re-become?) the conference favorite and essentially only remaining
play-off contender. Incidentally, my spreadsheet likes TCU in this one. The
game that I am more interested in, if I am being honest, is Oklahoma State’s
visit to Ames to face Iowa State (+7). The winner gets to stay in 2nd
place with only 2 games remaining. If the Cowboys can escape with a victory, as
predicted, then the conference race is pretty much over. OK State would lose any potential tie-breaker
with TCU or Oklahoma, and as a result, the Frogs and Sooners would simply face
each other again in a few weeks in the inaugural (and completely unnecessary)
Big 12 Championship Game. But, things get a lot more fun if Iowa State wins,
and who here doesn’t like fun? A Cyclone win would mean ISU would find
themselves in a 2nd place tied with the loser of the TCU-Oklahoma
game, two teams which Iowa State has already beaten, and therefore own the
tie-breaker against. ISU would simply need to win its final two games at Baylor
and at Kansas State (both clearly winnable) to earn a spot in the Big 12 Title
game, and the TCU-OK loser would be out. This assumes that West Virginia (who
also currently has 2 loses) will drop a game in their last three, which seems
likely as they travel to Kansas State (-2.5) this week followed by games
against Texas and at Oklahoma. Come on,
who doesn’t want to see Iowa State play a team that they have already beaten for the Big 12 Title in a couple of
weeks? Yes, please. With the ISU-OK State game scheduled for a noon kick-off,
by the time TCU-Oklahoma kicks off at 8 PM, the stakes in play in Norman will
be much clearer.
SEC
As for big, national stage games this week, the biggest on
paper is likely the SEC cross-divisional show-down of Georgia at Auburn (+2).
Georgia managed to lock up the SEC East last week, due in no small part to the rest
of the SEC East being terrible, so on one level, there is not that much to lose
for the Bulldogs. After all, Uga would only have one loss with the SEC Title
Game in front of them in a few weeks. Win that, and a loss at Auburn would make
absolutely no difference. Similarly, if Auburn wins, yet loses to Alabama to
close the season, the Tigers will be just another 10-2 team without a division
title hoping to get picked for the NY6. So, the real question at stake here is will
both Alabama and Georgia make it to the SEC Title Game undefeated? If they do,
the SEC Title game might just be for the right to play in the Sugar Bowl in the
Playoffs instead of getting shipped to the Rose Bowl (tough life, to lose and
get the Rose Bowl as a consolation prize…) So, the teams rooting for Auburn
this week most likely live in places like South Bend, Madison, Seattle, Dallas,
and Norman. If Georgia does win, and
Alabama takes care of business at Mississippi State (+14), the Tide would also
lock up the West officially, essentially making the rest of the SEC season more
meaningless than it already is now.
Pac 12
In the Pac 12 South, things are really winding down. No team
has emerged to challenge USC and the Trojans only need one more win to lock up
the Division. USC must travel to Colorado (+12.5) this week and will likely get
the job done right then and there. Even if they somehow falter, they can still
end things next week at home against UCLA. Even failing that, the only teams
that can pass the Trojans are the two Arizona schools, which would need to win
out and they have still to play each other. In other words, it’s just not going
to happen. The action in the much stronger North, however, is just heating up.
It took Washington two and a half months, but they are finally getting to the
meat of their schedule as they face a tough road test Friday night at Stanford
(+7). A loss by the Cardinal would mathematically eliminate Stanford from the
race, leaving only the two Washington schools. A loss by the Huskies would very
likely eliminate the Pac 12 from further Playoff consideration (if that has not
already occurred). Speaking of the state
of Washington, Wazzou faces a tough road test at Utah (+1). If the Cougars win,
they then control their own destiny in the Apple Bowl to close the regular
season. In other action, Arizona State will be trying to become bowl eligible
at UCLA in a game that opened as a pick’em.
ACC
At the beginning of the season, this week’s Florida State at
Clemson (-17.5) game looked like it might make a big impact on the ACC title race
and even the playoffs. I guess that is still true… sort of. If Clemson wins,
they officially lock up the Atlantic Division and stay in the playoff race.
But, even if the Tigers were to lose, NC State would need to win three straight
to leapfrog them, but I would not bet on that happening (my spreadsheet has
then as underdogs in 2 of the remaining 3). As for Florida State, they are just
trying to play for pride and maybe even make a bowl game, which would be highly
likely with this (unlikely) upset. In
the Coastal Division, Miami has a shot to lock up the Division Title as well,
but not by their own doing. Virginia travels to Louisville (-11.5) and needs an
upset to Miami from clinching at least for one more week. In other action,
Georgia Tech needs 2 more wins to become bowl eligible, and they still have the
Georgia Bulldogs coming up. So, they need to find a way to upset Virginia Tech
(-2.5) in Atlanta this weekend to have any realistic shot. The biggest ACC game
this week, however, will not impact the ACC standings, and that is Miami’s home
game against Notre Dame. Let’s talk about that later.
Independents / Group of Five
Later is now! I am not sure there is a game on the schedule
this week that will impact the overall playoff picture more than the Fighting
Irish’s road trip to Miami (+2.5). It is sometimes easy to forget that the Canes
are one of only 5 undefeated teams left and therefore are a Playoff contender.
But, at 8-1, the Irish are nothing to sneeze at either. If the Irish lose this one,
their case to make the playoffs gets quite a bit harder, and suddenly there
will be serious talk about possibly having 2 ACC teams in the Top 4. If the Irish win, the Golden Doomer are
almost home free with just games remaining against Navy and at Stanford. Pop
some popcorn, because Catholics vs. Convicts, Chapter 27 looks to be a good
one. In Group of Five action, we are pretty much just waiting for November 24th
when South Florida travels to Orlando to play Central Florida. As for this
week, UCF is a 37-point favorite over UCONN and Memphis is taking a week off.
Considering Toledo managed to lose to Ohio mid-week to drop to 8-2, the only
other team I could even imagine could sneak into the NY6 is Boise State if they
run the table, but don’t get your hopes up. Nonetheless, The Broncos (-4.5)
travel to Colorado State this weekend.
That is all for now. Go State, Beat the Buckeyes!
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