Full disclosure, due to my business trip to Japan over the past 10 days, I did not exactly watch a lot of college football this past weekend, as the bulk of it occurred before 8 AM on Sunday morning. But, I did manage to wake up in enough time to catch the last half of the fourth quarter and OT of the MSU game, and thus I saw more than 60% of the scoring anyway. I think that like a lot of fans out there, this season has been a bit of a fun roller coaster. At first, we were all just happy to think about trying to get back to a bowl game while building towards a brighter future with a young team. Then, after rousing wins over Iowa and Michigan, I stared to believe that perhaps the Future was now. I started to chalk up wins for games not yet played, and day-dreaming about magical upsets over Penn State and Ohio State, NY6 Bowls, and maybe even a surprise trip to Indy. It all seemed possible. But, as the game this weekend in Evanston showed, perhaps we all need to go Back to the view that building for the Future is our main goal this year. For as much promise as this team has shown at times, they are still a young team that sometimes shows its youth at just the wrong time. Whether that is fumbling the ball in the red zone, donking kicks off the goal posts, or chucking a prayer into the endzone in the 3rd OT on second down, these are errors that are mostly due to youth and inexperience. MSU made plenty of plays that were good enough to win the game, but at the end they made just enough mistakes to lose. Sometimes, with a young team, that is just the way the cookie crumbles. I had started to hope that 10-wins might be a real possibility this year, and it still could be, but right now 8-4 with a shot at 9 over the holidays looks far more likely. Based on where we all were a year ago, that sounds pretty darn good, and I am going Back to my original premise: no matter how this year finally turns out, the Future looks bright.
National Overview
As usual, the chart above compares the actual game results this past weekend to the opening Vegas spread. Aa predicted, it was a pretty wild week with a total of 15 teams losing in upset fashion and multiple teams either beating the spread badly, or just squeaking by. The teams that had particularly big wins include Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, Colorado, USC, Pitt, Missouri, Boise, and San Diego State. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Miami, and Stanford all won by less than expected. The upset bug bit a lot of notable teams as well, the highest profile of which was Iowa State’s win over TCU, but Boston College over FSU, Oregon over Utah, Arizona over Wazzou, Air Force over Colorado State, Wake over Louisville, and Houston over USF were all big as well. As for my spreadsheet, I think it might have been suffering from a little jet-lag, as it was only 3-7 for upsets and a meager 26-29 ATS. It did, however, hit 6 of 9 highlighted covers. To add insult to injury, the FPI had a great week, going 33-23 ATS and hitting 3 of 5 upset picks. Poor Rand()y struggled once again, going 4-10 for upset picks.
Big Ten
In undoubtedly the biggest game of the conference season, the Buckeyes scored a dramatic come-from-behind victory over Penn State this weekend to take the lead in the East division. If the Buckeyes can survive the next two weeks at Iowa and vs. MSU, they can pretty much book their hotels in Indy (assuming the Badger fans haven’t already claimed them all, in which case Munice is a lovely town to visit in December). But, the big question out there is if the Buckeyes run the table, will it be enough to guarantee a playoff spot? The initial rankings suggest that they need some help, but I am not convinced of that. As for the Badgers, Wisconsin continued its long, slow sleepwalk to the Division Title with an underwhelming win at Illinois. Iowa inched to the brink of bowl eligibility with a win vs. Minnesota, while both Indiana and Purdue stubbed their toes against Maryland and Nebraska. This could actually be a bit of a problem for the conference overall, as based on my projected spreads, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, and Minnesota could all very likely finish at 5-7. There is a pretty good chance that the Big Ten only gets 7 team over the 6-win threshold. As we speak, a pool of grad assistants just got asked to double check to ensure everyone was getting to class on time to increase the odds of backing into a bowl game with a losing record. Finally, the epic battle for 4th place in the East went to the Wolverines this weekend, as they failed to cover against Rutgers. But, as any Wolverine fan has been saying since August,Wilton Speight, John O’Korn, Brandon Peters is clearly the QB that should be taking the majority of the snaps. Now that the Peters era is upon us, University of Michigan scientist are already planning to build a time machine to return to early October such that they can replay the MSU and PSU games with the (newest) chosen one at QB, thus ensuring victory and an eventual Big Ten title in this alternative time line. It is so inevitable that it essentially already happened. The word on campus is that a white-haired professor who can’t correctly pronounce “gigawatt” is running around town in a DeLorenn looking for a clock tower, talking about lightning strikes and the year 1985. I can only assume that this refers to the relative likelihood of Michigan winning a national title any time soon and the last year that they were relevant on the national stage. Poor, crazy old man…
Big 12
Outside of Columbus this weekend, the most significant game of the weekend happened to be played in Ames, IA, as the Cyclones upset TCU to knot the Big 12 race up in a 4-way tie for 1st. In addition, let the record show that ISU holds wins over two of those other three teams, and plays the remaining one (OK State) in two weeks, in Ames. Are the Cyclones the new favorite in the Big 12? Elsewhere, all the other favorites won, including Oklahoma State beating West Virginia and knocking them down to the second tier in the conference, and Oklahoma sending Texas Tech home with a 1-4 conference record and the knowledge that at least the Red Raiders aren’t as bad as Baylor and Kansas.
Pac 12
I will say this about our friends out west: at least they keep things interesting. Coming into the weekend, two teams seemed relatively safe: Stanford and Washington. Both teams did win, but Stanford sure made thing interesting against Oregon State. The other 4 games could have gone either way based on the spread, and two of them did result in upsets as Oregon beat Utah and the Arizona Fightn’ RichRods presumably knocked Wazzou out of the Pac 12 North race. As a result, the Washington-Stanford game in two weeks has now eclipsed the Apple Bowl as the most important game left on the Pac 12 schedule. Meanwhile, down South, USC took care of ASU and finds themselves only a half-game ahead of Arizona. At the end of the day, the only chance of a Pac 12 team playing in anything better than the Fiesta Bowl is for Washington to run the table and perhaps praying for a little chaos in South Bend and in the ACC.
ACC
At the top of the ACC, nothing really changed this weekend, as Clemson beat Georgia Tech to stay within a game of NC State in the Coastal Division, and both Miami and Virginia Tech cruised to victory in the Atlantic Division. Even though NC State got hammered in South Bend, they remain 4-0 in conference play, with a home date with the defending champs looming. The most interesting result happened at the bottom of the conference, however, as both Florida State and Louisville suffered (embarrassing) upset losses to BC and Wake Forest, respectively resulting in both teams being tied in last place in the division at 2-4. With the Seminoles at 2-5 at both Clemson and Florida left on the schedule, they are now officially in serious danger of being home for the holidays, despite starting the season ranked in the Top 5 of every single publication this summer.
SEC
Is it late November yet? With Alabama, Auburn, and LSU all on a bye, Georgia was the only contender playing, and the Dogs easily dispatched with Florida, which if nothing else means that Michigan’s best win on the season so far might actually be Air Force. Also, I am being fairly generous in even including Auburn and LSU as “contenders.” In other action, Mississippi State beat up on Texas A&M, which if anything just makes the race in the West slightly less interesting, and South Carolina beat Vanderbilt to stay within a prayer of the top of the East standings. I suppose that if the Gamecocks can beat Georgia and the Dogs were to lose to Auburn, South Carolina could actually win the Division, but who are we kidding? The SEC would never do anything that interesting. (Snooze button depressed).
Group of Five / Independents
The big news here, of course is Notre Dame’s 21-point win over NC State and more importantly, their appearance in the Top 4 of the season’s first playoff poll. Don’t get too excited, though, Irish fans, as the committee seems to like to tease us the viewers with these initial polls. That said, with road games at Miami and Stanford still on the schedule, I think the committee might be serious this time. In other big news, the preseason favorite to take the group of five slot in the NY6, the USF Bulls, lost this week to Houston, which means the last undefeated team standing is the UCF Knights, who now pass Go and collect a promissory note for the chance to (maybe) buy tickets to the Peach Bowl. If UCF were to tank, then the whole situation gets way more interesting, as teams like Toledo and Memphis are still hanging around with just one loss. The Mountain West sure didn’t do itself any favors this week, as both Fresno State and Colorado State were upset by UNLV and Air Force. Now, no one has fewer than 2 losses and Boise State is once again atop the Mountain Division.
Finally, How Good is… Iowa State?
I almost picked the Cyclones for this honor last week, but this week’s win over TCU really cemented their case as a team to be taken seriously. My spreadsheet certain believes in ISU, as it had them ranked #10 and projects them to run the table. I am not sure about that, but if they can survive the next two weeks at West Virginia and at home vs. Oklahoma State, they might just be made in the shade. But, let’s be honest here, does WVU and OK State really strike fear into anyone? Cyclone fans might be prudent to start pricing out hotels in Dallas on New Year’s Day.
How Bad is… Tennessee?
Stop me if you heard this one before, but the Vols started the season in the Top 30 of most polls and were a bit of a sexy choice as a sleeper in the East. Fast forward to now, and they are 3-5 with all 5 loses coming in conference play, including this week’s loss at Kentucky, which I will remind you was in tackle football and not on the hardwood. With Southern Miss and Missouri coming up, Burnt Orange Nation should be able to string together a couple more wins, but they will likely need to beat Vandy in the season finale to get to bowl eligibility, and my spreadsheet currently likes the Commodores by 1.5. I would say, “oh how the mighty have fallen,” but it’s not like the Vols have been good this century, so perhaps they are just a team with a 100k+ stadium, several decades of no real accomplishment, yet sky-high expectations. Why does that sound so familiar?
That’s all for now. Hopefully I can get the Week 10 preview up before the actual games are played, but I have a little time to kill here in the Delta Lounge at MSP. Go State, Beat the Lions!
National Overview
As usual, the chart above compares the actual game results this past weekend to the opening Vegas spread. Aa predicted, it was a pretty wild week with a total of 15 teams losing in upset fashion and multiple teams either beating the spread badly, or just squeaking by. The teams that had particularly big wins include Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, Colorado, USC, Pitt, Missouri, Boise, and San Diego State. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Miami, and Stanford all won by less than expected. The upset bug bit a lot of notable teams as well, the highest profile of which was Iowa State’s win over TCU, but Boston College over FSU, Oregon over Utah, Arizona over Wazzou, Air Force over Colorado State, Wake over Louisville, and Houston over USF were all big as well. As for my spreadsheet, I think it might have been suffering from a little jet-lag, as it was only 3-7 for upsets and a meager 26-29 ATS. It did, however, hit 6 of 9 highlighted covers. To add insult to injury, the FPI had a great week, going 33-23 ATS and hitting 3 of 5 upset picks. Poor Rand()y struggled once again, going 4-10 for upset picks.
Big Ten
In undoubtedly the biggest game of the conference season, the Buckeyes scored a dramatic come-from-behind victory over Penn State this weekend to take the lead in the East division. If the Buckeyes can survive the next two weeks at Iowa and vs. MSU, they can pretty much book their hotels in Indy (assuming the Badger fans haven’t already claimed them all, in which case Munice is a lovely town to visit in December). But, the big question out there is if the Buckeyes run the table, will it be enough to guarantee a playoff spot? The initial rankings suggest that they need some help, but I am not convinced of that. As for the Badgers, Wisconsin continued its long, slow sleepwalk to the Division Title with an underwhelming win at Illinois. Iowa inched to the brink of bowl eligibility with a win vs. Minnesota, while both Indiana and Purdue stubbed their toes against Maryland and Nebraska. This could actually be a bit of a problem for the conference overall, as based on my projected spreads, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, and Minnesota could all very likely finish at 5-7. There is a pretty good chance that the Big Ten only gets 7 team over the 6-win threshold. As we speak, a pool of grad assistants just got asked to double check to ensure everyone was getting to class on time to increase the odds of backing into a bowl game with a losing record. Finally, the epic battle for 4th place in the East went to the Wolverines this weekend, as they failed to cover against Rutgers. But, as any Wolverine fan has been saying since August,
Big 12
Outside of Columbus this weekend, the most significant game of the weekend happened to be played in Ames, IA, as the Cyclones upset TCU to knot the Big 12 race up in a 4-way tie for 1st. In addition, let the record show that ISU holds wins over two of those other three teams, and plays the remaining one (OK State) in two weeks, in Ames. Are the Cyclones the new favorite in the Big 12? Elsewhere, all the other favorites won, including Oklahoma State beating West Virginia and knocking them down to the second tier in the conference, and Oklahoma sending Texas Tech home with a 1-4 conference record and the knowledge that at least the Red Raiders aren’t as bad as Baylor and Kansas.
Pac 12
I will say this about our friends out west: at least they keep things interesting. Coming into the weekend, two teams seemed relatively safe: Stanford and Washington. Both teams did win, but Stanford sure made thing interesting against Oregon State. The other 4 games could have gone either way based on the spread, and two of them did result in upsets as Oregon beat Utah and the Arizona Fightn’ RichRods presumably knocked Wazzou out of the Pac 12 North race. As a result, the Washington-Stanford game in two weeks has now eclipsed the Apple Bowl as the most important game left on the Pac 12 schedule. Meanwhile, down South, USC took care of ASU and finds themselves only a half-game ahead of Arizona. At the end of the day, the only chance of a Pac 12 team playing in anything better than the Fiesta Bowl is for Washington to run the table and perhaps praying for a little chaos in South Bend and in the ACC.
ACC
At the top of the ACC, nothing really changed this weekend, as Clemson beat Georgia Tech to stay within a game of NC State in the Coastal Division, and both Miami and Virginia Tech cruised to victory in the Atlantic Division. Even though NC State got hammered in South Bend, they remain 4-0 in conference play, with a home date with the defending champs looming. The most interesting result happened at the bottom of the conference, however, as both Florida State and Louisville suffered (embarrassing) upset losses to BC and Wake Forest, respectively resulting in both teams being tied in last place in the division at 2-4. With the Seminoles at 2-5 at both Clemson and Florida left on the schedule, they are now officially in serious danger of being home for the holidays, despite starting the season ranked in the Top 5 of every single publication this summer.
SEC
Is it late November yet? With Alabama, Auburn, and LSU all on a bye, Georgia was the only contender playing, and the Dogs easily dispatched with Florida, which if nothing else means that Michigan’s best win on the season so far might actually be Air Force. Also, I am being fairly generous in even including Auburn and LSU as “contenders.” In other action, Mississippi State beat up on Texas A&M, which if anything just makes the race in the West slightly less interesting, and South Carolina beat Vanderbilt to stay within a prayer of the top of the East standings. I suppose that if the Gamecocks can beat Georgia and the Dogs were to lose to Auburn, South Carolina could actually win the Division, but who are we kidding? The SEC would never do anything that interesting. (Snooze button depressed).
Group of Five / Independents
The big news here, of course is Notre Dame’s 21-point win over NC State and more importantly, their appearance in the Top 4 of the season’s first playoff poll. Don’t get too excited, though, Irish fans, as the committee seems to like to tease us the viewers with these initial polls. That said, with road games at Miami and Stanford still on the schedule, I think the committee might be serious this time. In other big news, the preseason favorite to take the group of five slot in the NY6, the USF Bulls, lost this week to Houston, which means the last undefeated team standing is the UCF Knights, who now pass Go and collect a promissory note for the chance to (maybe) buy tickets to the Peach Bowl. If UCF were to tank, then the whole situation gets way more interesting, as teams like Toledo and Memphis are still hanging around with just one loss. The Mountain West sure didn’t do itself any favors this week, as both Fresno State and Colorado State were upset by UNLV and Air Force. Now, no one has fewer than 2 losses and Boise State is once again atop the Mountain Division.
Finally, How Good is… Iowa State?
I almost picked the Cyclones for this honor last week, but this week’s win over TCU really cemented their case as a team to be taken seriously. My spreadsheet certain believes in ISU, as it had them ranked #10 and projects them to run the table. I am not sure about that, but if they can survive the next two weeks at West Virginia and at home vs. Oklahoma State, they might just be made in the shade. But, let’s be honest here, does WVU and OK State really strike fear into anyone? Cyclone fans might be prudent to start pricing out hotels in Dallas on New Year’s Day.
How Bad is… Tennessee?
Stop me if you heard this one before, but the Vols started the season in the Top 30 of most polls and were a bit of a sexy choice as a sleeper in the East. Fast forward to now, and they are 3-5 with all 5 loses coming in conference play, including this week’s loss at Kentucky, which I will remind you was in tackle football and not on the hardwood. With Southern Miss and Missouri coming up, Burnt Orange Nation should be able to string together a couple more wins, but they will likely need to beat Vandy in the season finale to get to bowl eligibility, and my spreadsheet currently likes the Commodores by 1.5. I would say, “oh how the mighty have fallen,” but it’s not like the Vols have been good this century, so perhaps they are just a team with a 100k+ stadium, several decades of no real accomplishment, yet sky-high expectations. Why does that sound so familiar?
That’s all for now. Hopefully I can get the Week 10 preview up before the actual games are played, but I have a little time to kill here in the Delta Lounge at MSP. Go State, Beat the Lions!
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