As MSU's final game of the 2017 season approaches, I have found it to be a useful exercise to take a bit of a deep dive into the hard numbers that each team has generated over season. In particular, I like to analyze the rush and pass offense and defense numbers for each team on a per attempt basis. In addition, I like to take a closer look at the schedule of each team to gain a better understanding of the level of competition that each team has faced. Washington State is a unique team with some unique stats, but I think that we can learn a little bit about what to expect. I have never claimed to be a great x's and o's guy, and a wise man once said, "stats are for losers," but I think a statistical analysis is a part of the puzzle. That all said, in the analysis below, when I make comparisons between teams, it is always from the view point of statistical similarities, i.e. similar yards per play. OK? Let's dig in.
MSU's Run Game (#93, 3.92 yd/att) vs. WSU's Rushing Defense (#55, 4.17 yd/att)
This is one of the more interesting match-ups to watch. On a per attempt basis, MSU's rushing offense was pretty bad this year, while the Cougar's rushing defense was pretty average. In looking at MSU's stats over the years, they basically make sense: as a general rule, MSU could run against bad rush defenses (like Minnesota, #95 and Maryland #87), but they struggled against the good rushing defenses (Ohio State, #8, Penn State #14, and Northwestern, #10). But, what about MSU's performance against teams in WSU's peer group? MSU faced three teams this year with stats similar to Wazzu: Notre Dame (#43), Iowa (#51), and Western Michigan (#61). Against Iowa, MSU struggled, achieving only 2.2 yd/att. But, MSU actually fared pretty well against the other two teams, racking up 4.7 yd/att against the Irish and 6.0 yd/att against Western. Considering Iowa really sold out to stop the run against MSU, this seems somewhat encouraging, but these games were all played in September when all teams were just gaining their footing.
On the flip side, I would characterize WSU's rush defense as a bit more erratic. Against the better rushing attacks in the Pac 12, Wazzu's D got rolled a couple of times in their losses, including against Washington (#25) where they gave up 7.3 yd/att and Arizona (#1) where they gave up 9.1 yd/att. As a point of comparison, MSU gave up 8.0 yd/att against OSU, by far MSU's worst performance on defense against the run. WSU also gave up 5.6 yd/att to USC (#29) but this was a game they won. However, against two other pretty good rushing operations: Oregon (#17) and most notably, Stanford (#7), the Cougar defense had a good day, giving up only 2.9 and 3.4 yd/att respectively. WSU won both games. Against teams in MSU rushing peer group such as Cal (#109), Colorado (#101), Boise State (#94), and Utah (#78), WSU did generally well, giving up 3.3, 2.0, 4.0, and 1.7 yd/att respectively. The notable exception was Oregon State, who put up 4.7 yd/att in a loss. That all said, the two weakest effort against the run in this grouping (Boise and Oregon State) were the Cougars first two games of the season.
MSU's Passing Attack (#108, 6.4 yd/att) vs. WSU Pass Defense (#14, 6.1 yd/att)
On paper, this is a very, very bad match-up for MSU. MSU's passing game is bad, and WSU's pass defense is very good. That is the bad news. But, there may be a least a little good news buried in the stats. First, MSU faced a lot of really good pass defenses. Specifically, 8 of MSU's 12 opponents are in the Top 26 is pass defense in yd/att including Michigan (#5), Iowa (#10), Ohio State (#11), Penn State (#12), Notre Dame (#17), Minnesota (#21), Indiana (#25), and Northwestern (#26). In some of those games, notably against Northwestern (7.8 yd/att), Penn State (7.1 yd/att), and Iowa (7.6 yd/att) MSU put up some good numbers. In some of MSU's worst performances such Maryland (1.4 yd/att), Ohio State (3.6 yd/att), Michigan (4.3 yd/att), and Notre Dame (6.5 yd/att) either the weather was terrible or MSU got behind early and become one-dimensional. So, there is reason to believe that MSU's passing attack might be a little better than the stats would suggest.
As for WSU's passing defense, surprisingly, they have not faced as many truly high powered passing attacks as you might expect, based on being a Pac 12 team. In fact, they only appear to have faced 4 top 40 passing attacks: USC (#18), Washington (#24), Boise State (#29), and Oregon (#31). So, there is some evidence to suggest that WSU's numbers are a little inflated. If we consider their performance against those 4 teams, it is a bit of a mixed bag. Against Boise State, they gave up a sizable 8.5 yd/att, but against the other 3 Top 40 teams, they held their own giving up about 5.5 yd/att to each, which is very good. But, against some other weaker pass offenses, they did not fair as well. For example, Cal (#101, in MSU peer group), put up a respectable 6.8 yd/att, Utah (#46) put up 7.6 yd/att, and Arizona (#50) put up a whopping 16.2 yd/att. So, it seems like the Cougars either have a really good day, and hold their opponents to around 5.5 yd/att (which they did in 5 of 11 FBS games), or they have a tough day and give up over 6.5 yd/att (which they did in 4 of 11 FBS games). For the record, the other two games were against Nevada (#69), who they shut down (3.5 yd/att), and Colorado (2.0 yd/att), which was a very poor weather game.
WSU Rushing Game (#128, 2.9 yd/att) vs. MSU's Rush Defense (#13, 3.38 yd/att)
For as bad of a match-up as MSU's passing attack vs. the Cougar pass D looked at paper, this match-up is even worse, but in this case, in MSU's favor. But, interestingly, there is some reason to believe that this match-up will also be a bit closer than expected. On the MSU side, the Spartans actually didn't face that many high level rushing attacks. The Top 4 were Notre Dame (#3), Ohio State (#8), Penn State (#35), and Western (#41). Interestingly, the Irish and Buckeyes were the only two teams that really put a dent in MSU's rush defense, which they did to the tune of 4.6 and 8.0 yd/att. Also notable is the fact that Penn State (3.1 yd/att) and Western (3.2 yd/att) were the only other teams to gain over 3.0 yd/att on MSU. So, essentially MSU has a consistently good rush defense, meaning good running teams can get yards, but other unless you are Top 10ish, don't expect to clear 3 yds a play.
On the other side of the coin, WSU's rushing numbers are about as bad as can be. In the NCAA database, only Western Kentucky put up worse numbers per attempt. Digging deeper into the numbers does not really tell us much for a several reasons. First, WSU simply doesn't run the ball much. They average only 25 carries a game. In contrast, MSU rushes 42 times a game, on average. Second, they pretty much put up bad numbers against everyone. They put up less than 3.0 yd/att in 6 of 11 games and when they did better than that, it was usually against very bad rush defenses, like Colorado (#112, where WSU had 5.5 yd/att) and Oregon State (#119, where WSU had 3.8 yd/att). But, there are two exceptions, sort of. Wazzu managed 3.5 yd/att against Oregon (#27) and 4.1 yd/att against USC (#63). Now, these actually are not great numbers, but they did show that the Cougars might be able to show a pulse against a good run defense.
That all said, the other factor which gives me a little pause is that if you look at the stats of the individual players, the story gets a bit more interesting. It seems like a major factor in WSU's very poor rushing stats is due to the QB. WSU's two QBs who have seen any reasonable number of snaps, Falk and Hilinski, have combined for 78 rushes for -208 yards (-2.7 yd/att). The NCAA Statistics page also says that WSU has been sacked 44 times for -317 yd. This means that they have also run the QB 34 times for a net positive of 109 yd (3.2 yd/att) which is certainly not great, and also might include several instances where the QB scrambled and picks up a yard or two. Basically, WSU gets sacked a lot and their two QBs do not run effectively. If this is combined with the relatively small number of RB runs (a little over 200), and the overall running numbers are really bad. That said, the actual yd/att for the RBs are decent. Jamal Morrow has 522 yd on 86 carries (6.1 yd/att) and James Williams has 381 yd on 89 attempts (4.3 yd/att). Those aren't bad numbers. LJ Scott is averaging only 4.3 yd/att and both London and Holmes are below 4.0 yd/att. So, it seems like WSU could possibly get a little work done on the ground if they tried, but it likely will be just a play or two here or there sprinkled in as an element of surprise.
WSU Passing Attack Game (#90, 6.8 yd/att) vs. MSU's Pass Defense (#19, 6.3 yd/att)
Once again, on paper, this looks like a bit of a mismatch in MSU's favor. But, there are a whole bunch of caveats here as well. First of all, MSU has actually faced a whole lot of BAD passing offenses. The Spartans have only faced TWO teams in the Top 80 in passing yards per attempt: Ohio State (#22 at 8.4 yd/att) and Penn State (#27 at 8.2 yd/att). In those two games, MSU gave up over 8 yd/att, which is not great. MSU also struggled a bit against Notre Dame (#105 in passing, but MSU gave up 8.7 yd/att), Northwestern (#96, but MSU gave up 7.5 yd/att) and Minnesota (#106, but MSU gave up 6.8 yd/att). MSU did much better in the other 7 games, giving up less than 6.5 yd/att in all of them and less than 5.3 yd/att in 5 of them.
But, the nature of Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense makes this a bit hard to interpret using standard methods. My simple yd/att analysis makes the Wazzu passing offense look pretty pedestrian. But, they pass A LOT (56 times a game) for A LOT of yards (376 yd / game) and they put up points (over 31 a game). But, the 6.3 yd/att average seems to be pretty consistent. In 7 of their 11 games against FBS teams, they put up 6.7 yd/att or worse. Perhaps most importantly, this included every single team they played that finished in the Top 80 of pass defense per play. They put up between 7.0 and 7.4 yd/att against Arizona (#88), Stanford (#90), and Oregon State (#111), and they only exceeded that against the worst defense they faced, Nevada (#120). But, against better defenses, they were right around 6.5-6.7 yd/att. The only exception were the bad weather Colorado game (4.9 yd/att) and Utah (#18) who held the Cougars to 4.5 yd/att. But, the bottom line is that WSU puts up pretty consistent numbers against all but the very worst passing defenses, and MSU's passing defense is pretty good.
Add It Up
So, what does it all mean? When MSU has the ball, they will be facing a stiff defense, but one that in reality may only be the 6th or 7th best one that they have faced. Statistically, WSU's defensive numbers look very similar to both Iowa and Notre Dame's defense. The trouble is, MSU only mustered an average of 18 points a game against the seven Top 35 defenses they faced this year, and Wazzu is squarely in that category. So, I think that MSU will be able to run at least a little and pass at least a little. Based on some manipulation of the numbers above, one might expect MSU to rack up around 140 yd in rushing and 180 yd in passing, if both team play an average game. That is not great. But, if MSU can muster the running numbers they showed against Notre Dame or the passing numbers they put up against Northwestern and Penn State, that would go a long way towards winning. With a extra month of practice, I certainly would not rule that out.
When the Cougars have the ball, the numbers suggest they won't be able to run the ball, possibly at all. Yes, the RBs do have good numbers, but Wazzu has not shown that they can run against a stout rushing defense. Based on the numbers, I think getting over 50 yd on the ground would be considered a good day for them. So, it is going to be air-raid city. The number suggest WSU will get somewhere between 6.0 and 6.5 yd / att and likely around 300-350 yd total. Will that be good enough to outscore MSU? It might be.
I can see why these two teams are ranked similarly. This looks like a good, close match-up. I expect both offenses to struggle a bit. In games like these, I think it will essentially come down to mistakes and red zone execution. WSU does have a tendency to turn the ball over a lot and take a lot of sacks. If MSU can get a couple of picks and several sacks, I think MSU has a great chance to win. On the other hand, if MSU drives down the field, picks up a holding penalty or false start on a 1st and goal and has to settle for a FG (for example) than it could be trouble. One other key factor is that WSU has been a bit shaky on the road, including getting blown out by Cal, Arizona, and Washington in games where they were a combined -12 in turnovers. If they did not somehow go +5 in turnovers against Utah, they probably would have lost that road game as well. That said, they went into Eugene and beat the Duck by 23 back in early October. So, you never know.
At the end of the day, I am an optimist, so I am going to go ahead and pick MSU to win 21-20, on a late turnover by WSU. But, this one could easily go either way.
That is all for now. Go State, Beat the Cougars!
MSU's Run Game (#93, 3.92 yd/att) vs. WSU's Rushing Defense (#55, 4.17 yd/att)
This is one of the more interesting match-ups to watch. On a per attempt basis, MSU's rushing offense was pretty bad this year, while the Cougar's rushing defense was pretty average. In looking at MSU's stats over the years, they basically make sense: as a general rule, MSU could run against bad rush defenses (like Minnesota, #95 and Maryland #87), but they struggled against the good rushing defenses (Ohio State, #8, Penn State #14, and Northwestern, #10). But, what about MSU's performance against teams in WSU's peer group? MSU faced three teams this year with stats similar to Wazzu: Notre Dame (#43), Iowa (#51), and Western Michigan (#61). Against Iowa, MSU struggled, achieving only 2.2 yd/att. But, MSU actually fared pretty well against the other two teams, racking up 4.7 yd/att against the Irish and 6.0 yd/att against Western. Considering Iowa really sold out to stop the run against MSU, this seems somewhat encouraging, but these games were all played in September when all teams were just gaining their footing.
On the flip side, I would characterize WSU's rush defense as a bit more erratic. Against the better rushing attacks in the Pac 12, Wazzu's D got rolled a couple of times in their losses, including against Washington (#25) where they gave up 7.3 yd/att and Arizona (#1) where they gave up 9.1 yd/att. As a point of comparison, MSU gave up 8.0 yd/att against OSU, by far MSU's worst performance on defense against the run. WSU also gave up 5.6 yd/att to USC (#29) but this was a game they won. However, against two other pretty good rushing operations: Oregon (#17) and most notably, Stanford (#7), the Cougar defense had a good day, giving up only 2.9 and 3.4 yd/att respectively. WSU won both games. Against teams in MSU rushing peer group such as Cal (#109), Colorado (#101), Boise State (#94), and Utah (#78), WSU did generally well, giving up 3.3, 2.0, 4.0, and 1.7 yd/att respectively. The notable exception was Oregon State, who put up 4.7 yd/att in a loss. That all said, the two weakest effort against the run in this grouping (Boise and Oregon State) were the Cougars first two games of the season.
MSU's Passing Attack (#108, 6.4 yd/att) vs. WSU Pass Defense (#14, 6.1 yd/att)
On paper, this is a very, very bad match-up for MSU. MSU's passing game is bad, and WSU's pass defense is very good. That is the bad news. But, there may be a least a little good news buried in the stats. First, MSU faced a lot of really good pass defenses. Specifically, 8 of MSU's 12 opponents are in the Top 26 is pass defense in yd/att including Michigan (#5), Iowa (#10), Ohio State (#11), Penn State (#12), Notre Dame (#17), Minnesota (#21), Indiana (#25), and Northwestern (#26). In some of those games, notably against Northwestern (7.8 yd/att), Penn State (7.1 yd/att), and Iowa (7.6 yd/att) MSU put up some good numbers. In some of MSU's worst performances such Maryland (1.4 yd/att), Ohio State (3.6 yd/att), Michigan (4.3 yd/att), and Notre Dame (6.5 yd/att) either the weather was terrible or MSU got behind early and become one-dimensional. So, there is reason to believe that MSU's passing attack might be a little better than the stats would suggest.
As for WSU's passing defense, surprisingly, they have not faced as many truly high powered passing attacks as you might expect, based on being a Pac 12 team. In fact, they only appear to have faced 4 top 40 passing attacks: USC (#18), Washington (#24), Boise State (#29), and Oregon (#31). So, there is some evidence to suggest that WSU's numbers are a little inflated. If we consider their performance against those 4 teams, it is a bit of a mixed bag. Against Boise State, they gave up a sizable 8.5 yd/att, but against the other 3 Top 40 teams, they held their own giving up about 5.5 yd/att to each, which is very good. But, against some other weaker pass offenses, they did not fair as well. For example, Cal (#101, in MSU peer group), put up a respectable 6.8 yd/att, Utah (#46) put up 7.6 yd/att, and Arizona (#50) put up a whopping 16.2 yd/att. So, it seems like the Cougars either have a really good day, and hold their opponents to around 5.5 yd/att (which they did in 5 of 11 FBS games), or they have a tough day and give up over 6.5 yd/att (which they did in 4 of 11 FBS games). For the record, the other two games were against Nevada (#69), who they shut down (3.5 yd/att), and Colorado (2.0 yd/att), which was a very poor weather game.
WSU Rushing Game (#128, 2.9 yd/att) vs. MSU's Rush Defense (#13, 3.38 yd/att)
For as bad of a match-up as MSU's passing attack vs. the Cougar pass D looked at paper, this match-up is even worse, but in this case, in MSU's favor. But, interestingly, there is some reason to believe that this match-up will also be a bit closer than expected. On the MSU side, the Spartans actually didn't face that many high level rushing attacks. The Top 4 were Notre Dame (#3), Ohio State (#8), Penn State (#35), and Western (#41). Interestingly, the Irish and Buckeyes were the only two teams that really put a dent in MSU's rush defense, which they did to the tune of 4.6 and 8.0 yd/att. Also notable is the fact that Penn State (3.1 yd/att) and Western (3.2 yd/att) were the only other teams to gain over 3.0 yd/att on MSU. So, essentially MSU has a consistently good rush defense, meaning good running teams can get yards, but other unless you are Top 10ish, don't expect to clear 3 yds a play.
On the other side of the coin, WSU's rushing numbers are about as bad as can be. In the NCAA database, only Western Kentucky put up worse numbers per attempt. Digging deeper into the numbers does not really tell us much for a several reasons. First, WSU simply doesn't run the ball much. They average only 25 carries a game. In contrast, MSU rushes 42 times a game, on average. Second, they pretty much put up bad numbers against everyone. They put up less than 3.0 yd/att in 6 of 11 games and when they did better than that, it was usually against very bad rush defenses, like Colorado (#112, where WSU had 5.5 yd/att) and Oregon State (#119, where WSU had 3.8 yd/att). But, there are two exceptions, sort of. Wazzu managed 3.5 yd/att against Oregon (#27) and 4.1 yd/att against USC (#63). Now, these actually are not great numbers, but they did show that the Cougars might be able to show a pulse against a good run defense.
That all said, the other factor which gives me a little pause is that if you look at the stats of the individual players, the story gets a bit more interesting. It seems like a major factor in WSU's very poor rushing stats is due to the QB. WSU's two QBs who have seen any reasonable number of snaps, Falk and Hilinski, have combined for 78 rushes for -208 yards (-2.7 yd/att). The NCAA Statistics page also says that WSU has been sacked 44 times for -317 yd. This means that they have also run the QB 34 times for a net positive of 109 yd (3.2 yd/att) which is certainly not great, and also might include several instances where the QB scrambled and picks up a yard or two. Basically, WSU gets sacked a lot and their two QBs do not run effectively. If this is combined with the relatively small number of RB runs (a little over 200), and the overall running numbers are really bad. That said, the actual yd/att for the RBs are decent. Jamal Morrow has 522 yd on 86 carries (6.1 yd/att) and James Williams has 381 yd on 89 attempts (4.3 yd/att). Those aren't bad numbers. LJ Scott is averaging only 4.3 yd/att and both London and Holmes are below 4.0 yd/att. So, it seems like WSU could possibly get a little work done on the ground if they tried, but it likely will be just a play or two here or there sprinkled in as an element of surprise.
WSU Passing Attack Game (#90, 6.8 yd/att) vs. MSU's Pass Defense (#19, 6.3 yd/att)
Once again, on paper, this looks like a bit of a mismatch in MSU's favor. But, there are a whole bunch of caveats here as well. First of all, MSU has actually faced a whole lot of BAD passing offenses. The Spartans have only faced TWO teams in the Top 80 in passing yards per attempt: Ohio State (#22 at 8.4 yd/att) and Penn State (#27 at 8.2 yd/att). In those two games, MSU gave up over 8 yd/att, which is not great. MSU also struggled a bit against Notre Dame (#105 in passing, but MSU gave up 8.7 yd/att), Northwestern (#96, but MSU gave up 7.5 yd/att) and Minnesota (#106, but MSU gave up 6.8 yd/att). MSU did much better in the other 7 games, giving up less than 6.5 yd/att in all of them and less than 5.3 yd/att in 5 of them.
But, the nature of Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense makes this a bit hard to interpret using standard methods. My simple yd/att analysis makes the Wazzu passing offense look pretty pedestrian. But, they pass A LOT (56 times a game) for A LOT of yards (376 yd / game) and they put up points (over 31 a game). But, the 6.3 yd/att average seems to be pretty consistent. In 7 of their 11 games against FBS teams, they put up 6.7 yd/att or worse. Perhaps most importantly, this included every single team they played that finished in the Top 80 of pass defense per play. They put up between 7.0 and 7.4 yd/att against Arizona (#88), Stanford (#90), and Oregon State (#111), and they only exceeded that against the worst defense they faced, Nevada (#120). But, against better defenses, they were right around 6.5-6.7 yd/att. The only exception were the bad weather Colorado game (4.9 yd/att) and Utah (#18) who held the Cougars to 4.5 yd/att. But, the bottom line is that WSU puts up pretty consistent numbers against all but the very worst passing defenses, and MSU's passing defense is pretty good.
Add It Up
So, what does it all mean? When MSU has the ball, they will be facing a stiff defense, but one that in reality may only be the 6th or 7th best one that they have faced. Statistically, WSU's defensive numbers look very similar to both Iowa and Notre Dame's defense. The trouble is, MSU only mustered an average of 18 points a game against the seven Top 35 defenses they faced this year, and Wazzu is squarely in that category. So, I think that MSU will be able to run at least a little and pass at least a little. Based on some manipulation of the numbers above, one might expect MSU to rack up around 140 yd in rushing and 180 yd in passing, if both team play an average game. That is not great. But, if MSU can muster the running numbers they showed against Notre Dame or the passing numbers they put up against Northwestern and Penn State, that would go a long way towards winning. With a extra month of practice, I certainly would not rule that out.
When the Cougars have the ball, the numbers suggest they won't be able to run the ball, possibly at all. Yes, the RBs do have good numbers, but Wazzu has not shown that they can run against a stout rushing defense. Based on the numbers, I think getting over 50 yd on the ground would be considered a good day for them. So, it is going to be air-raid city. The number suggest WSU will get somewhere between 6.0 and 6.5 yd / att and likely around 300-350 yd total. Will that be good enough to outscore MSU? It might be.
I can see why these two teams are ranked similarly. This looks like a good, close match-up. I expect both offenses to struggle a bit. In games like these, I think it will essentially come down to mistakes and red zone execution. WSU does have a tendency to turn the ball over a lot and take a lot of sacks. If MSU can get a couple of picks and several sacks, I think MSU has a great chance to win. On the other hand, if MSU drives down the field, picks up a holding penalty or false start on a 1st and goal and has to settle for a FG (for example) than it could be trouble. One other key factor is that WSU has been a bit shaky on the road, including getting blown out by Cal, Arizona, and Washington in games where they were a combined -12 in turnovers. If they did not somehow go +5 in turnovers against Utah, they probably would have lost that road game as well. That said, they went into Eugene and beat the Duck by 23 back in early October. So, you never know.
At the end of the day, I am an optimist, so I am going to go ahead and pick MSU to win 21-20, on a late turnover by WSU. But, this one could easily go either way.
That is all for now. Go State, Beat the Cougars!
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