MSU now has 4 games in the books, exactly 1/3 of its regular season schedule, and I still don't really know how to feel about this team. My main conclusion at this point is that the cup that is MSU football is right at the half full / half empty level. So, depending on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist, perhaps more than usual, will taint your opinion of this particular flavor of MSU football. I am generally a very optimistic person, but so far this season has given me a strong Case of the Blahs.
On one hand, MSU is 3-1 with wins over two likely bowl team, one of which came on the road. In the sole loss, MSU never trailed until the clock actually hit zero, which was also at well past 2:00 EDT in a place where no other Big Ten team has won... ever. MSU has not trailed a game by more than 7 points at any time, and that was only in the first quarter of the first game. The defense, especially against the rush, is playing extremely well, and the front seven is pretty healthy. So, that all sounds pretty good, right?
On the other hand, MSU running game has not looked great, and it's not clear if having a healthy o-line or LJ Scott would actually help. Lewerke has been inconsistent, and the WR group is so beat up that we had multiple walk-ons on the field at the same time for several snaps this weekend. The TEs must be wearing some sort of cloaking device, as Lewerke never seems to see them. And then, there is the sloppiness, primarily the turnovers, penalties, and questionable play calling. Blah.
This weekend, it finally occurred to me why the sloppiness is so troubling (other than the fact that it is troubling on its face). There is a hint of the Bobby Williams and John L eras in the crispness of this team. Through that decade of disappointment, we saw the green and white do many of the same things that we have seen over the past 4 weeks: stupid penalties at stupid times, giving up big plays in the 4th quarter, failed red zone appearances, on-side kicks, etc. MSU wracked up a lot of losses playing this way. Double blah.
But, the thing is, here in 2018 MSU is still winning these games (in 3 of the 4 attempts). Bobby and John L are not on the side lines, Coach D is. Yes, we gave up 17 points to CMU in the fourth quarter, but we still iced the ball in the final minutes and won by double digits. The game never actually got to a point where things were in doubt. Not really. Bobby and John L would both have found a way to lose that game, as well as the first game, and possible last week as well. MSU is not playing that well now. But, my math still projects MSU to win 7-8 games, even if they stay at the same level that they are playing at now. In the previous eras? I think this team would struggle to make a bowl game.
While a nice trip to a warm locale in late December or early January is still not a guarantee by any means, Coach D is a proven commodity, and honestly so are most of these players. We saw what they did to a pretty good Washington State team in the Holiday Bowl, and I see no reason why they can't get to that level of play again, as long as they can get and stay reasonably healthy. That is still a pretty big and important caveat, but I have always been and will strive to continue to be... an optimist. I am optimistic that this team will get healthy enough and gel enough to still be a factor in the Big Ten East race. So, despite my personal case of the blahs, I think there is still quite a bit of good football to come for this team. So, go ahead and pour me a glass of green kool-aid. Just make sure the glass is half full. Oh Yeah!
National Overview
Here is the results chart for Week 5. It is not just me with a case of the blahs. My algorithm did not do well in Week 4 and Week 5 was even worse. It went only 22-33 (40%) ATS and 5-6 (46%) for my highlighted covers, For reference, the FPI was 27-28 (49%). For the year, I am now 121-132 (48%) overall and 31-26 (54%) for covers. That is not terrible, it is just kind of... you know... blah. Also of note is that MSU was one of only three teams that won, but failed to cover by more than 10 points. Auburn and Clemson were the other two.
As for upsets, the table below gives the results compared to my and the FPI's predictions. I count 13 total upsets, right on the 12.5 that I predicted. My algorithm only went 2-6 (25%... blah) for upset picks and is now 15-22 (41%) for the season. The #FPI was 3-4 (43%) to bring its tally to 14-11 (56%). Interestingly (or not) the majority of the upsets this week (10 of the 13) were in the Group of 5. The only 3 upsets in the Power 5 were Florida over Mississippi State, VA Tech over Duke, and Kentucky over South Carolina, and I think that line shifted to UK by kick-off.
As I mentioned above, my algorithm loooooooves the Mountatineers right now. It has them ranked #3 overall and projected to win the Big 12. While I am not sure I buy that just yet, I do have to wonder if WVU is the real deal. Then again, they have only played three FBS teams so far, and none of them are exactly world-beaters (Tennessee, K State, and Texas Tech). I would certainly have been nice if Hurricane Florence would not have cancelled the game with NC State. We would know a lot more about both teams. Going forward, the month of October looks very manageable with Kansas, Iowa State, and Bye, and Baylor coming up next. So, there is a quite good chance that WVU will run their record to 7-0 before they hit the critical back-end of the schedule: @Texas, vs. TCU, @OK State, and vs. Oklahoma. That final weekend match-up with the Sooners in Morgantown could be for all the marbles in the Big 12.
That is all for this time. I will have my Week 6 Preview up in a couple of days. As for now, Go State, Beat the Wildcats!
On one hand, MSU is 3-1 with wins over two likely bowl team, one of which came on the road. In the sole loss, MSU never trailed until the clock actually hit zero, which was also at well past 2:00 EDT in a place where no other Big Ten team has won... ever. MSU has not trailed a game by more than 7 points at any time, and that was only in the first quarter of the first game. The defense, especially against the rush, is playing extremely well, and the front seven is pretty healthy. So, that all sounds pretty good, right?
On the other hand, MSU running game has not looked great, and it's not clear if having a healthy o-line or LJ Scott would actually help. Lewerke has been inconsistent, and the WR group is so beat up that we had multiple walk-ons on the field at the same time for several snaps this weekend. The TEs must be wearing some sort of cloaking device, as Lewerke never seems to see them. And then, there is the sloppiness, primarily the turnovers, penalties, and questionable play calling. Blah.
This weekend, it finally occurred to me why the sloppiness is so troubling (other than the fact that it is troubling on its face). There is a hint of the Bobby Williams and John L eras in the crispness of this team. Through that decade of disappointment, we saw the green and white do many of the same things that we have seen over the past 4 weeks: stupid penalties at stupid times, giving up big plays in the 4th quarter, failed red zone appearances, on-side kicks, etc. MSU wracked up a lot of losses playing this way. Double blah.
But, the thing is, here in 2018 MSU is still winning these games (in 3 of the 4 attempts). Bobby and John L are not on the side lines, Coach D is. Yes, we gave up 17 points to CMU in the fourth quarter, but we still iced the ball in the final minutes and won by double digits. The game never actually got to a point where things were in doubt. Not really. Bobby and John L would both have found a way to lose that game, as well as the first game, and possible last week as well. MSU is not playing that well now. But, my math still projects MSU to win 7-8 games, even if they stay at the same level that they are playing at now. In the previous eras? I think this team would struggle to make a bowl game.
While a nice trip to a warm locale in late December or early January is still not a guarantee by any means, Coach D is a proven commodity, and honestly so are most of these players. We saw what they did to a pretty good Washington State team in the Holiday Bowl, and I see no reason why they can't get to that level of play again, as long as they can get and stay reasonably healthy. That is still a pretty big and important caveat, but I have always been and will strive to continue to be... an optimist. I am optimistic that this team will get healthy enough and gel enough to still be a factor in the Big Ten East race. So, despite my personal case of the blahs, I think there is still quite a bit of good football to come for this team. So, go ahead and pour me a glass of green kool-aid. Just make sure the glass is half full. Oh Yeah!
National Overview
Here is the results chart for Week 5. It is not just me with a case of the blahs. My algorithm did not do well in Week 4 and Week 5 was even worse. It went only 22-33 (40%) ATS and 5-6 (46%) for my highlighted covers, For reference, the FPI was 27-28 (49%). For the year, I am now 121-132 (48%) overall and 31-26 (54%) for covers. That is not terrible, it is just kind of... you know... blah. Also of note is that MSU was one of only three teams that won, but failed to cover by more than 10 points. Auburn and Clemson were the other two.
As for upsets, the table below gives the results compared to my and the FPI's predictions. I count 13 total upsets, right on the 12.5 that I predicted. My algorithm only went 2-6 (25%... blah) for upset picks and is now 15-22 (41%) for the season. The #FPI was 3-4 (43%) to bring its tally to 14-11 (56%). Interestingly (or not) the majority of the upsets this week (10 of the 13) were in the Group of 5. The only 3 upsets in the Power 5 were Florida over Mississippi State, VA Tech over Duke, and Kentucky over South Carolina, and I think that line shifted to UK by kick-off.
Big Ten
In the final analysis, this was really a pretty blah week in the Big Ten. The Ohio State / Penn State game was certainly exciting, but at the end of the day, the result of pretty predictable. The Buckeyes won (just like they have in 47 of there last 50 regular season conference games) and they won at least in part because Penn State's late game play calling was awful. Shocking (/sarcasm). I will also comment that I fully expected this game to be an absolute shootout with the first team to 50 winning. So far, Oregon State put up more points on OSU's defense than Penn State did, and likewise Appalachian State and Illinois put up more points on the Lions than the Buckeye's did. I just don't know exactly what to make of that.
Because OSU won, they are now a pretty big favorite to win the conference. As my updated conference projection table shows below, I now give OSU almost an 80% chance to win the East, with Michigan a distance second at 14%. While this fact was not emphasized that much in the summer, OSU's Big Ten schedule is actually quite manageable this year. They avoid both Iowa and Wisconsin from the West, so the only games left that should give them much challenge at all are @MSU and vs. Michigan starting in mid November. They should be on cruise control for the next five weeks.
As for the rest of the Big Ten, it was blah city. Five teams had the week off and although Indiana, Michigan (eventually), and MSU all won, none of those teams covered. In fact, the only team that did cover of the favorites was Purdue over perhaps the worst Nebraska team since the 1950s.
These rather blah results go a long way in explaining why the Buckeye's odds went up so much. Other than being the only Big Ten team to escape September without a loss, the three biggest remaining threats to OSU overall (Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin) all seem to be underachieving. As such, the Buckeye's odds to win the conference title (51%) and make the playoffs (43%) are very high. In total, however, my power rankings are not kind to the Big Ten in general, as OSU is only ranked #9 overall, with four other teams in the Top 20.
Regarding MSU, the blah performance against the Chips have sunk MSU's odds to win the East to just below 3%, their power ranking in my system is down to 43, and the expected value of total wins is at 7.41. But, in all honesty, this result is almost comforting to me. All Spartan fans know that we are not playing that well right now. All of the math that I do assumes that MSU (and everyone else) will continue to play at the same level that they have shown so far in the season. So, the fact that MSU could continue to play at the same level as now and still win 7 games actually makes me feel better, oddly. My current projections suggest the MSU will be an underdog to Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan, but will be at least a TD favorite in 4 of the other 5 remaining games. The 5th game is the one at Maryland, which I now have as essentially a push. I suspect that number will change quite a bit in the coming weeks.
I should also mention that in my projections tables for this week, there is obviously a lot of variability compared to last week (Week 4). One reason is that these calculations are going to be fairly volatile early in the season as the data starts to grow. The results of each game have a bigger impact that is diluted as the season draws on. However, I also cut loose the anchor of the preseason rankings this week. So, I expect the volatility to be at its maximum this week. It should settle down over the next few weekends.
SEC
I am not sure what their is excuse is down south this week, but they also seemed to have a case of the blahs. For a lot of the teams at the top of the conference (Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, and Texas A&M) they were huge favorites going in and none of them wound up covering the spread. The one team that did cover in the West was LSU, who stamped out the Rebels 45-16. As a result, my spreadsheet now has the race in the SEC West tightening such the LSU has a 42% chance to win the division and Alabama only has a 55% chance. It is certainly notable that Bama has to travel to Baton Rogue this year to face the Tigers.
But, the real intrigue this week was in the SEC East, where Florida got an upset win over a team I thought might challenge for the West crown (Mississippi State) and Kentucky got a very big win over the Fighting Chickens of South Carolina. The win impressed my spreadsheet so much that the Wildcats vaulted to #2 in my power rankings (behind my new #1 team, Georgia) and now I have Kentucky favored to win the East (63%) over UGA (35%).
That all said, I can't say that I fully believe this calculation (I still expect Alabama to beat Georgia in the SEC title game), but the fact that both Bama and UGA appear to have a very challenging road game left does add a bit of spice to the rest of the SEC race. In general, my algorithm likes the SEC a lot as it has six SEC teams in its current Top 8, which is flat out ludicrous, but that is what the math says right now. As a result I current have a total of four SEC teams (Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia, and LSU) with at least a 13% chance to make the playoffs.
ACC
A week ago, it seemed pretty much a foregone conclusion that the ACC was going to be one of the more blah conference races of the Power 5. Clemson appeared poised to run the table without hardly breaking a sweat. But, instead, they had to sweat out a come-from-behind win against their new and unexpected rival, Syracuse. The Tigers have a potential major problem at QB and the ACC suddenly looks a bit more wide open. The problem is the rest of the Atlantic Division is such a dumpster fire that Clemson might be able to lose two games and still win the division. My algorithm dropped them to #22 overall and now has the Tigers with only a 54% chance to win the division. Their biggest competition, it appears, is NC State, fresh off a win over Virginia this week, with a 40% chance. The only other thing we learned in the Atlantic is that there actually is a team worse than Florida State (Sorry, Louisville).
But, the real game-changer happened in the Coastal Division where Virginia Tech bounced back from their humbling loss to Old Dominion and beat Duke convincingly in their own house. This threw my math for a bit of a loop, as it has not been impressed with Miami so far, and so it concluded that VA Tech actually has a 89% chance to win the Division now. Huh. Despite being five weeks into the season, VA Tech has only played 3 FBS opponents, so my spreadsheet it not exactly playing with a full deck yet. In general, though, my spreadsheet has not been impressed with the ACC, as it ranks 5 of the teams currently outside of the Top 90. Ouch!
Big 12
Talk about blah, how about the Big 12 this week? There were no upsets, the Oklahoma schools covered, and the Texas schools didn't. The schools from Kansas and Iowa all lost. Any questions? BLAH. Actually, there was one result of note, and that was West Virginia's 8-point win at Texas Tech. As I mentioned last week, my spreadsheet has a big-old hilly billy sized man-crush on the West Virginia Moutaineers so far this year. It has them ranked all the way up at #3 right now with an 80% chance to win the Big 12 and a 46% chance to make the playoffs, which is second only to Notre Dame (51%). More on WVU a little later.
Pac 12
Even the games out west this week were a bit on the blah side of things. Similar to the Big 12 and the Big 10, there were no upsets. In conference play, the most notable results were that USC, Oregon, and Washington State all got wins and avoided their 2nd loss in conference play. But, the big story was that Stanford failed to escape South Bend with a win leaving (odd as it seems) only Colorado in the conference with an unblemished record. As a result, Stanford's ranking took a hit in my system and Washington is once again my strong favorite to win the North at 76% as well as the overwhelming favorite to win the conference (67%) and essentially the only hope to make the playoffs (30%). Down south, Colorado has been slowly creeping up in my rankings such they have leaped over ASU as my new favorite to win the South at 46%.
Independents / Group of Five
Ohio State was a pretty darn good week, but I think the Irish were the team that really won the weekend. Not only did Notre Dame beat a pretty good Stanford team, but they beat them going away, 38-17. Considering the Irish's remaining schedule is essentially a who's who of 2018's most under-achieving squads, an 11-1 record or better seems very plausible. If fact, I peg those odds at 66%, which in my book gives them the best odds of any team to make the playoffs. Furthermore, they travel to Virginia Tech next week and that looks like it might be the toughest game they have left. If they can beat the Hokies, they might be favored by 10+ points in all their remaining games. That is the very opposite of blah, if you happen to be a fan of the Irish. Now, let's do a quick speed round of the Group of 5.
In the Mountain West, Boise passed a nice little road test at Wyoming and remain the current conference and NY6 favorite. But, San Diego State, Fresno, and Utah State will all have something to say about that in the coming weeks, starting with the Aztecs next week.
In the AAC, UCF picked up a nice win over Pitt this weekend, but my spreadsheet was taken in more by Cincinnati's pasting of UCONN. The Bearcats have been climbing my charts and now sit at #28 with a 60% chance to win the AAC East. Can they dethrone the "defending champs?" In the West, my math says Houston is basically running unopposed despite not having played a conference game yet.
This result may have slipped through the cracks this week, but Army managed to upset then undefeated Buffalo, which most likely ends the MAC's already weak chances at the NY6 bid. Ohio (50%) is once again my favorite to win the MAC East, while EMU's loss to Northern Illinois has thrown the West into chaos. Only 10 percentage points separate my projected 1st place team from the 5th place team. MACtion is NEVER blah...
C-USA also had an under-the radar important upset this week as LA Tech upset North Texas to take control of the CUSA West. Since the rest of the division is so apparently week, my spreadsheet now gives LA Tech an 93% chance to win the division. In the East, preseason favorite, Florida Atlantic, lost again this week and FIU looks as poised as ever to win the division (87%).
Finally, in the Sun Belt, App State and Arkansas State look like the cream of the crop in their respective divsions.
This week, I will once again leave you with two non-blah questions:
How Bad is... UCLA?
It is not like UCLA was supposed to be good this year. Their preseason rankings were all solidly in the 40s and I gave them less then a 2% chance to win the Pac 12 South even in the summer. But trouble is brewin' in L.A. as the Bruins have started 0-4 and have the distinction of being one of only two Power 5 teams without a win through September (Nebraska is the other). On one hand, UCLA has faced four pretty decent teams (Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Fresno State, and Colorado). Those four all look like Bowl teams right now. The problem is, they have lost the four games by an average of 3 TDs. The other problem is there are no layups left on the schedule. At least Nebraska gets to host Illinois in the year. (Fingers crossed, Huskers!) The Bruins best shot at a win is when Arizona comes to town in three weeks, and I still project the them to be underdogs in that contest. My math says there is a 10% chance UCLA goes 0-fer and a 40% chance that they win 1 game or less. This season is starting to look like it might be one of the worst in UCLA's history, at least since the 1940s.
How Good is... West Virginia?
That is all for this time. I will have my Week 6 Preview up in a couple of days. As for now, Go State, Beat the Wildcats!
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