MSU enters Week 6 of the College Football season with quite a few questions -- far more questions than we really should be worried about as we enter October. Will the running game ever find traction? Will Lewerke settle down? Will the red zone execution improve? Will the dumb mistake disappear? Perhaps the most important question is: who will be back in the playing group and who will still be out with injuries? The opponent also offers some unique potential challenges. Northwestern has historically given Mark Dantonio teams trouble. Will that trend continue as well?
So many questions...
However, this is one of those cases where my cold, mathematical analysis helps me. On Saturday afternoon, after watching MSU almost squander a 28-point lead and then watching Northwestern build a 17-point lead on Michigan, I was getting pretty concerned about this coming week's game. Granted, the Wildcats eventually did squander their lead (to the shock of... no one at all), but I was thinking MSU would only be a 5-6 point favorite and the game was going to be an absolute nail-biter. But then I ran my numbers on Sunday morning and I was quite surprised to have the computer spit out a projected spread of 10 points. Huh. Then, the actual Vegas Line came out, and the line actually was 10.5. This translates to about a 77% chance that MSU wins this game. AND, the line actually has gone up a little. Incidentally, the FPI likes MSU even a little more (-11.6).
What this tells me is that despite my emotional response to the games I saw on Saturday, MSU (even in its current injured state) is perhaps a little better than I think and perhaps Northwestern (and Michigan, for that matter) are a little worse. While this game still very possibly will be a nail-biter, this is a game MSU should win. Northwestern appears to be worse than Indiana right now, and MSU gets them in Spartan Stadium. Also, I can't help but wonder if the surprisingly high and rising spread may be due to a little inside information about the true health of the roster. A boy can dream at least, right?
In any event, this game will go a long way towards determining MSU's overall floor. A win would set up MSU nicely to shoot for at least a 8-4 record, which although disappointing on many levels, is still very respectable. However, if MSU were to drop this game, the Spartans would start to drift into that desperation mode where you just start counting wins to get to 6 and try not to think about Quick Lane Bowl. Yeah, let's try not to think about that. In times like these, I think that it is important to remember the wise words of some our greatest thinkers. In this case: Bob Barker. On Saturday, it will be our chance to help control the pet population. Remember folks, have your Wildcats spade or neutered!
National Overview
This is a big week for my spreadsheet calculations, as I have deemed there to be enough actual game data collected in order to break away completely from the preseason rankings. As a result, my predictions are a bit more erratic than usual. That said, below is the weekly visualization of my picks compared to the Vegas spread. My spread thinks a total of 14 teams are the cat's pajamas and suggests that they all will cover. They are: (**deep breath**) North Texas, Liberty, Akron, Cincinnati, Toledo, Baylor, Miami, Syracuse, NC State, Mississippi, UL Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, Washington State, and Houston. (**phew!**)
As for upsets, this weekend has the hallmarks of a pretty wild one, as 48% of all games (27 of 56) have a spread at a TD or less. As a result, my simulation says to expect 14 ± 3 upsets, which is the largest number I ever remember seeing. As for my algorithm specifically, it likes a total of 8 upsets, including Kentucky over A&M VA Tech over Notre Dame, and Florida over LSU. The FPI likes 6 upsets, including, oddly, Utah State and Arizona State getting wins. Just for reference, if I were to use my "preseason biased" rankings, the spreadsheet would no longer like the Florida over LSU upset or the New Mexico / UNLV upset.
So many questions...
However, this is one of those cases where my cold, mathematical analysis helps me. On Saturday afternoon, after watching MSU almost squander a 28-point lead and then watching Northwestern build a 17-point lead on Michigan, I was getting pretty concerned about this coming week's game. Granted, the Wildcats eventually did squander their lead (to the shock of... no one at all), but I was thinking MSU would only be a 5-6 point favorite and the game was going to be an absolute nail-biter. But then I ran my numbers on Sunday morning and I was quite surprised to have the computer spit out a projected spread of 10 points. Huh. Then, the actual Vegas Line came out, and the line actually was 10.5. This translates to about a 77% chance that MSU wins this game. AND, the line actually has gone up a little. Incidentally, the FPI likes MSU even a little more (-11.6).
What this tells me is that despite my emotional response to the games I saw on Saturday, MSU (even in its current injured state) is perhaps a little better than I think and perhaps Northwestern (and Michigan, for that matter) are a little worse. While this game still very possibly will be a nail-biter, this is a game MSU should win. Northwestern appears to be worse than Indiana right now, and MSU gets them in Spartan Stadium. Also, I can't help but wonder if the surprisingly high and rising spread may be due to a little inside information about the true health of the roster. A boy can dream at least, right?
In any event, this game will go a long way towards determining MSU's overall floor. A win would set up MSU nicely to shoot for at least a 8-4 record, which although disappointing on many levels, is still very respectable. However, if MSU were to drop this game, the Spartans would start to drift into that desperation mode where you just start counting wins to get to 6 and try not to think about Quick Lane Bowl. Yeah, let's try not to think about that. In times like these, I think that it is important to remember the wise words of some our greatest thinkers. In this case: Bob Barker. On Saturday, it will be our chance to help control the pet population. Remember folks, have your Wildcats spade or neutered!
National Overview
This is a big week for my spreadsheet calculations, as I have deemed there to be enough actual game data collected in order to break away completely from the preseason rankings. As a result, my predictions are a bit more erratic than usual. That said, below is the weekly visualization of my picks compared to the Vegas spread. My spread thinks a total of 14 teams are the cat's pajamas and suggests that they all will cover. They are: (**deep breath**) North Texas, Liberty, Akron, Cincinnati, Toledo, Baylor, Miami, Syracuse, NC State, Mississippi, UL Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, Washington State, and Houston. (**phew!**)
As for upsets, this weekend has the hallmarks of a pretty wild one, as 48% of all games (27 of 56) have a spread at a TD or less. As a result, my simulation says to expect 14 ± 3 upsets, which is the largest number I ever remember seeing. As for my algorithm specifically, it likes a total of 8 upsets, including Kentucky over A&M VA Tech over Notre Dame, and Florida over LSU. The FPI likes 6 upsets, including, oddly, Utah State and Arizona State getting wins. Just for reference, if I were to use my "preseason biased" rankings, the spreadsheet would no longer like the Florida over LSU upset or the New Mexico / UNLV upset.
Big Ten
As I mentioned above, almost half of the FBS-level games on tap this weekend have a spread which opened at a TD or lower. In Big Ten land, however, the action appears a bit more subdued. On paper, the most exciting game should be... Illinois at Rutgers (+1.5), a fierce inter-divisional match-up of veritable titans of the sport, both of which are (almost, but not quite) ranked in the Top 100 of the FBS in my system, the winner of which just might have a shot at 4 wins. I mean, it just does get any better than that, right? The only other game with a spread under 10 is the battle for the most famous pig trophy in the upper Midwest: Floyd of Rosedale, which will once again be given to this weekend's contest of Iowa at Minnesota (+5). The Hawkeyes are attempting to win the pig for 4th year in a row and for the 6th time in 7 tries. More importantly, the winner will get their first conference win of the season and will still get to dream about possibly winning the Big Ten West, assuming, of course, that Madison Wisconsin is hit by a meteor at some point in the next 2 months.
Other than that, the action is bit sparse, as none of the other real contenders are playing each other and all of them are at home. Ohio State (-25.5) is hosting Indiana, Wisconsin (-21.5) is hosting Nebraska, Michigan (-18) is hosting Maryland, and the Nittany Kitties are at home licking their wounds from last week. That just leaves Northwestern at MSU (-10.5) and that isn't even a divisional contest, so one could certainly argue that the result is not that critical overall. While MSU is obviously the team most likely to lose of those four, it is likely that all four teams will land on all four feet this weekend.
SEC
Meanwhile, down south, there a lot of cats on the prowl, looking to stay in the division race both on the West side and East side. But, for now, those cats will are all fighting for second place, as West favorite Alabama will almost certain lead Arkansas (+34) to slaughter, while East leaders Georgia (-26) will attempt to send the Commodores of Vanderbilt into early retirement.
In the East, the Missouri Tigers will pay a visit to South Carolina (-2). The teams are a combined 1-3 in conference play and both have already lost to Georgia, so another loss for either team is pretty much the end of the road when in comes the East title. In the West, early on it looked like Auburn and Mississippi State would be fighting like cats and dogs for a shot to unseat Bama. But as it stands, those two teams are also 1-3 combined in the SEC and neither team can afford yet another loss. In this case, the Tigers are favored in Starksville by 3.5 making it the home(bull)dogs who will be desperate for the upset win.
But, the main events in the SEC this week are two huge inter-division match-ups as the LSU Tigers travel to Florida (-2.5) and the Kentucky Wildcats travel to Texas A&M (-6.5). While in my experience a cat NEVER enjoys a road trip, and the pair of felines are underdogs here, I have a feeling they both might be able to scratch and claw their way to victory. Kentucky especially has a very manageable schedule coming up and both cats will get a shot to host their respective division favorites in a few weeks.
ACC
Oddly, the ACC seems to be following the same general trend as the Big Ten and SEC this week. The teams at the top of the division races should not get tested in conference play, but there are some intriguing potential cat-fights for the also-ran positions, especially in the Atlantic Division. The Clemson Tigers certainly seemed to use up one of their nine lives last weekend as they came from behind to beat Syracuse. This week the Tigers travel to Wake Forest (+16), and the buzz it that they will get their starting QB back. But, as I have said, cats hate road trips, which does make this one a bit more interesting. The more interesting division match-up this week looks to be Boston College at NC State (-3.5). Both teams are yet to lose in conference play and the winner is likely the only team that will have even a remote chance to challenge Clemson. B.C. was a trendy pick a few weeks back (until they got their wings clipped by Purdue) but my algorithm thinks the Wolfpack are the cat's meow.
In the Coastal Division, the situation is a bit different, as there is no clear-cut favorite at this time. I had convinced myself that Duke was the team to beat for a while there, until Virginia Tech gave them a beat-down last week. Duke decided the take this week off to regroup. Miami might be the actual team to beat, but they are hosting Florida State (+12) this week and are unlikely to get tested. (Although that spread does look suspiciously low to me...) My algorithm is capricious, but it seems to have forgiven Virginia Tech for the loss to Old Dominion and now likes the Hokies to win the Division. While VA Tech's (+4.5) match-up with Notre Dame in Blacksburg will not have a direct bearing on the ACC race, it will certainly be a harbinger to determine if VA Tech is for real or not, and it will definitely impact the overall national picture and play-off race. More on that later.
Big 12
While a fair amount of growling and hissing is expected in the other Power 5 conferences this week, as teams scratch and bite for position, the action in the Big 12 looks to be a bit more domesticated. Also, there are no feline mascots in Big 12, at least among the good teams (Sorry, Kansas State). But, I will say this, at least the presumed Big 12 favorite is in a competitive game this week as Oklahoma (-7.5) will attempt to rope and hogtie the Longhorns in the annual Red River Shootout. The winner will emerge as one of only two teams without a loss in Big 12 play, assuming that West Virginia (-28) can take care of business against Kansas. Let's be honest here. Does anyone honestly believe Texas is going to win this game? Yeah, that's what I thought... Other than that, considering TCU and Texas Tech have byes, the only other game of even minor consequence is Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-9). The Cyclones are 0-2 already in conference play and 1-3 overall. If they want to play someplace nice like the Cheez-It Bowl over the holidays, they are going to need to start racking up some wins.
Pac 12
Some of the hottest action of the weekend might just take place in the Pac 12 this week, especially in the South. But, to start in the North, both Washington State (-16) and Washington (-21.5) were assigned to clean out the litter box as they are playing the two teams at the bottom of each Division (Oregon State and UCLA respectively and both on the road). Meanwhile, Oregon is taking a cat nap this week, which leaves Stanford. The Cardinal had two pretty intense weeks in a row, emerging with a late, somewhat fortuitous escape from Eugene, followed by a tough loss in South Bend last week. Now, they return home to face a scrappy Utah (+5) squad. While I think Stanford is certainly good enough that they should win this game, I am a bit concerned about the emotional toll the last two weeks may have taken. My algorithm likes the Cardinal to cover, but my gut says to put them on Update Watch.
As for the hot South, my math suggests this is the most competitive division in the Power 5 right now, and as crazy as it might sound, my algorithm thinks this weekend's match featuring Arizona State at Colorado (-2) will have a major impact on the final standings. My math says that currently there is a ~76% chance that one of those two teams will win the division, despite the fact that they are a combined 2-1 in conference play, and both teams have to travel to USC this year. I don't know... math is just weird sometimes. Finally, although neither Arizona nor Cal are likely to contend this year, they are both fringe bowl teams fighting for a spot (pass the Cheez-its!) The Wildcats are a slim 2.5-point favorite in the desert.
Independents and the Group of Five
If there was a poll about which college football team had the best September, I would have to vote for Notre Dame. They got big wins over Michigan and Stanford, they avoided embarrassing loses to a few lessor squad, and they even found themselves a QB along the way. Now, as October begins, they face their biggest road challenge yet, and possibly their biggest remaining challenge as they travel to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech. The spread opened at -4.5 favoring Notre Dame, but my algorithm likes the hometown Hokies by 5.8. This is clearly a huge game for both teams as VA Tech can essentially prove that their loss to ODU was just a fluke ("No really, we thought we were playing OSU") and assert themselves as a serious contender in the ACC. Meanwhile, if the Irish win, there is just not a lot of resistance left on their schedule. I already give them a 66% chance to finish at 11 wins or better (which I think will be good enough to make the Playoffs) and if they win this weekend, I guess that number will shoot to 90% or better. The only concern that I would have if I were an Irish fan is what happens if all of their opponents tank a bit? What if Michigan, Stanford, VA Tech, and USC all finish at 8-4 or worse and none of them are ranked in the Top 20 at the end of the year? That would make for some very interesting discussions in the committee war room.
In Group of Five action this week, Boise State will have its first real test of the Mountain West season as the Broncos (-15) play host to San Diego State in what looks to be their toughest test in all of October. Meanwhile, lurking in the Mountain Division shadows are the Utah State Aggies who will try to steal a non-conference upset victory at BYU (-3). In the AAC, there are still three undefeated squads that look like they have a shot at the NY6 bid in UCF, USF, and Cincinnati. The Golden Knights are big favorites (-25) vs. SMU, while the Bulls (-13.5) look to get a slightly stiffer test at UMASS. My current projected favorite, Cincinnati, is only a 7-favorite as a host to Tulane. My algorithm says that the Bearcats will cover by almost 20 points.
MACtion this week features a lot of potentially close games, like Miami (OH) at Akron (-4.5), NIU at Ball State (+4), Buffalo at CMU (+6.5), and EMU at WMU (-3). But unfortunately, a NY6 bid will be a very steep uphill climb. The climb looks even steeper for the C-USA and the Sunbelt, although those leagues still have a total of 6 teams with only one loss. So, they at least have a cat's whisker of a chance.
That is all I have for today. As always, enjoy the games this weekend and Go State, Beat the Wildcats!
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