An MSU QB is traveling at a speed of 9.5 m/s. He pitches the ball at an angle of 225 degrees from his direction of travel at a linear velocity of 8.0 m/s relative to the players velocity. The ball is caught by a second MSU player traveling at a speed of 9.6 m/s who is 5 m behind and 5 meters to the left of the original MSU player.
Question #1: Why does Physics hate MSU? Seriously, Physics. We have a whole building on campus with your name on it. Have some respect next time, or maybe it will just be the Astronomy building from now on. You're on probation for the rest of the season. Also, Chemistry and Biology are way more interesting. You suck.
In the waning seconds of the game, an MSU TE catches the ball on the 2 yard line, running at a speed of 8.7 m/s. The player then trips on the turf, reducing his speed to 0.0 m/s.
Question #2: Is it my imagination, or was this just the most horribly appropriate way for that game to end?
Question #3: Of the following problems with MSU, which one(s) are the most severe?
a) Injuries to the O-line
b) Injuries to skill players (RB, CB, and WR)
c) Erratic QB play
d) Play calling
e) Mental mistakes
f) All of the above
Question #4: What does this week's loss mean for the rest of MSU's season?
Answer: It's "not great, Bob!" In the story that is the 2018 MSU Football team, the answer is clear: this team still has lots of problems. In my updated power rankings, MSU has dropped to #49, and I now project MSU's expected number of wins to be only 5.98. That isn't quite as bad as it sounds, as that does round to 6, meaning MSU still has a 68% chance to get to a bowl. Considering the goals that many us of thought were at least possible for MSU at the beginning of the season, this is very cold comfort.
I now project MSU to be a double digit underdog to Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State. My math says MSU could be an underdog at Maryland, and the Purdue and Nebraska games don't look so much like lay-ups any more. Only the Rutgers game looks like a "safe" win. It's all a tough pill to shallow.
But, as I have stated many times: I'm an optimist. So, if you need or want a dose of sunshine, here goes. If you think about it, last year everyone would say that MSU had a great season. Yet, last year MSU lost one in the non-conference and lost to Northwestern. Sound familiar? The difference, of course, is that last year MSU also beat both Penn State and Michigan. While the idea of beating at least two of the top three other top Big 10 East teams seem virtually impossible, I am hear to tell you that it is not. Is it likely? Heck, no. But, possible? Sure. My math suggests that MSU, right now, would be about a 10-point dog to the Wolverines. Last year, they were 12-point underdogs. Far worse MSU teams have beaten far better Wolverine teams in the past. And, let's not forget that OSU also has to travel to East Lansing this year, and even in 2016, MSU was a 2-point conversion away from a possible upset. Football is a weird game where weird things happen every week.
All of my math also is based on the idea that MSU does not get any better than they are right now. Admit it or not, MSU still has a championship-level coaching staff (i.e. coaches who have won championships) and a roster that essentially put a hole in a quite good Washington State team last December. They have it in them. We have seen them do it before, and I believe it is possible that they can do it again. Once again, based on my math, if MSU can harness the same basic performance that they showed in the under-rated win at Indiana, it looks to me that they can be competitive with any team in the Big Ten East. So, chin up Spartan fans. I guarantee you that Coach D and the team is not giving up, and you shouldn't either. The full story of MSU's 2018 season is not yet written.
National Overview
Per my normal process, the graph below gives a visualization of the results of this week's games relative to the opening Vegas line. It was a very sad story for the spreadsheet this week. It went 5-9 on covers (36%) and 19-37 (34%) overall ATS. I would have to go back and check, but this is one of, if not the worst performance that the spreadsheet has ever had. (Why does that sound familiar this weekend?) Oddly, the FPI didn't do much better at 22-34 (39%). So, I don't think it is all me. I think that it was just an odd weekend. Cumulatively, I'm at 36-35 (51%) for covers and 140-169 (45%) ATS. As for the over-achievers this week, Clemson's weekend had a happy ending, as did Ole Miss, Temple, and Georgia Tech. The story was a little more glum for Washington, Miami, and West Virginia, but it worked out for them in the end.
Big Ten
Even if I were an uninterested observer, the main story line in the Big Ten this week was MSU's upset loss to Northwestern. In the preseason, it looked like a 4-team race for the Big Ten East title, with 6 total games that would decide the title. With MSU's on-going problems, it is looking more and more like only a 3-team race with only 3 games that will decide the title, one of which has already been played (Ohio State's win in State College). With OSU already in the driver's seat, one could easily connect the dots that the Ohio State - Michigan game to end the season is beginning to look like it could be the decisive game in the Big Ten East. Then again, the (once every) Ten Year War actually was relevant two years ago. Being relevant twice in three years? Yeah, that seems like a stretch.
The other results from the weekend suggest that the race on both sides of the Big Ten might be tightening. Very simply put, the current favorites, Ohio State and Wisconsin, failed to cover this weekend and gave up a fair amount of point to Indiana and Nebraska. Meanwhile, the two biggest apparent threats, Michigan and Iowa, both had strong performances against Maryland and Minnesota.
My updated conference projections (shown below) confirm this. In the East, OSU is still a big favorite (73%), but Michigan's odds are now over 20% and PSU's odds doubled to 6% while there were at home on the couch this weekend. In the West, even though Wisconsin owns a tie-breaker against Iowa, my math has the Badger's odds down to 58%, while Iowa's odds are now up to 38%. Northwestern even have a pulse in the race now at 5%. A big reason for this is that Iowa and Wisconsin are going in opposite directions in my power ranking system, which Iowa now ranked 10th and with Wisconsin down to 20th. Again, I take these numbers with a grain of salt, but a trend is a trend (until it's not). Overall, my math still essentially projects the Big Ten Champ to be 50% OSU and 50% the field with the Buckeye's playoff odds (46%) clearly the highest in the conference.
Independents (Notre Dame)
Congratulations Notre Dame. You survived the first six weeks of the season without a loss, and as a reward, I am going to go ahead and give you you're own section this week. With the Irish's 45-23 victory at Virginia Tech this weekend, the Irish are sitting in very good shape for the playoffs. Right now, I have them as double-digit favorites in all six of their remaining games and with a 61% chance to run the table. With no bothersome conference championship game to worry about, gun-to-my-head I say that they will be in the playoffs. Even if they lose one game, I think their odds are very good, but it will certainly be very noteworthy to see where the committee places them in the first playoff poll at the end of the month. As we will see next, I currently give them the best odds overall to make the playoffs at 76%.
If the season ended today, that would be weird...
because it's only October and there are still 7 full weeks left in the season. That said, I mention in several places above my calculated odds to make the playoffs, so I figured that I might as well show the full table. Below I show the 17 current teams that I project have a >1% chance to make the playoffs. Right now, my algorithm says Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia, and West Virginia are the four most likely teams, with Ohio State and oddly, Penn State on the outside looking in. More oddly, it has Alabama all the way down in 8th place at 17%. I think the logic here is that my spreadsheet likes Georgia to win both the East and the SEC title so much that it is depressing Bama's odds.
Finally, does the FunBelt still have a chance? Well, maybe. There are still 3 teams in the East with only one loss and one of them, Appalachian State, is somehow ranked #12 in my power rankings. Considering there sole loss was a close one at Penn State, their resume could wind up being better than any other Group of Five champ.
In closing, I have two more non-story problems:
How Bad is... North Carolina?
For a few minutes, I considered asking how bad is the bottom of the ACC? Based on my current power rankings, the ACC has five teams that are ranked outside of the Top 85 of the country. Of all those bad teams, UNC is currently the lowest ranked. While they didn't exactly start the season with accolades (their consensus ranking was only 58), I currently have them as the 7th worst team in the country and the lowest ranked of all Power Five teams (including Rutgers and Kansas). I currently give them less than a 10% chance to win any of their remaining FBS games this year. Yet, somehow they still beat Pitt. (Sigh). That said, UNC is so bad that they actually earned this revered spot this week... despite being on a bye week. Ouch!
How Good is...Colorado?
In the summer, I picked the lowly (#77) ranked Colorado Buffalo to finish dead last in the Pac 12 South. Fast forward to mid October, and the Buffs are undefeated and atop the standings. None of those wins exactly came over great teams, but their win this weekend over Arizona State at least came over a team that I project to make a bowl. So, how much higher can they go? Their remaining schedule is actually pretty manageable, with the next two weeks (at USC and at Washington) being critical. After that, everything looks pretty winnable. Right now my math says they have a 72% chance to get to double digit wins in the regular season. We will see if that story checks out as the season progresses.
As for this week, here's where the story ends. Keep an eye out for my Week 7 Preview in a couple of days. Until then and as always: Go State, Beat the Lions!
Question #1: Why does Physics hate MSU? Seriously, Physics. We have a whole building on campus with your name on it. Have some respect next time, or maybe it will just be the Astronomy building from now on. You're on probation for the rest of the season. Also, Chemistry and Biology are way more interesting. You suck.
In the waning seconds of the game, an MSU TE catches the ball on the 2 yard line, running at a speed of 8.7 m/s. The player then trips on the turf, reducing his speed to 0.0 m/s.
Question #2: Is it my imagination, or was this just the most horribly appropriate way for that game to end?
Question #3: Of the following problems with MSU, which one(s) are the most severe?
a) Injuries to the O-line
b) Injuries to skill players (RB, CB, and WR)
c) Erratic QB play
d) Play calling
e) Mental mistakes
f) All of the above
Question #4: What does this week's loss mean for the rest of MSU's season?
Answer: It's "not great, Bob!" In the story that is the 2018 MSU Football team, the answer is clear: this team still has lots of problems. In my updated power rankings, MSU has dropped to #49, and I now project MSU's expected number of wins to be only 5.98. That isn't quite as bad as it sounds, as that does round to 6, meaning MSU still has a 68% chance to get to a bowl. Considering the goals that many us of thought were at least possible for MSU at the beginning of the season, this is very cold comfort.
I now project MSU to be a double digit underdog to Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State. My math says MSU could be an underdog at Maryland, and the Purdue and Nebraska games don't look so much like lay-ups any more. Only the Rutgers game looks like a "safe" win. It's all a tough pill to shallow.
But, as I have stated many times: I'm an optimist. So, if you need or want a dose of sunshine, here goes. If you think about it, last year everyone would say that MSU had a great season. Yet, last year MSU lost one in the non-conference and lost to Northwestern. Sound familiar? The difference, of course, is that last year MSU also beat both Penn State and Michigan. While the idea of beating at least two of the top three other top Big 10 East teams seem virtually impossible, I am hear to tell you that it is not. Is it likely? Heck, no. But, possible? Sure. My math suggests that MSU, right now, would be about a 10-point dog to the Wolverines. Last year, they were 12-point underdogs. Far worse MSU teams have beaten far better Wolverine teams in the past. And, let's not forget that OSU also has to travel to East Lansing this year, and even in 2016, MSU was a 2-point conversion away from a possible upset. Football is a weird game where weird things happen every week.
All of my math also is based on the idea that MSU does not get any better than they are right now. Admit it or not, MSU still has a championship-level coaching staff (i.e. coaches who have won championships) and a roster that essentially put a hole in a quite good Washington State team last December. They have it in them. We have seen them do it before, and I believe it is possible that they can do it again. Once again, based on my math, if MSU can harness the same basic performance that they showed in the under-rated win at Indiana, it looks to me that they can be competitive with any team in the Big Ten East. So, chin up Spartan fans. I guarantee you that Coach D and the team is not giving up, and you shouldn't either. The full story of MSU's 2018 season is not yet written.
National Overview
Per my normal process, the graph below gives a visualization of the results of this week's games relative to the opening Vegas line. It was a very sad story for the spreadsheet this week. It went 5-9 on covers (36%) and 19-37 (34%) overall ATS. I would have to go back and check, but this is one of, if not the worst performance that the spreadsheet has ever had. (Why does that sound familiar this weekend?) Oddly, the FPI didn't do much better at 22-34 (39%). So, I don't think it is all me. I think that it was just an odd weekend. Cumulatively, I'm at 36-35 (51%) for covers and 140-169 (45%) ATS. As for the over-achievers this week, Clemson's weekend had a happy ending, as did Ole Miss, Temple, and Georgia Tech. The story was a little more glum for Washington, Miami, and West Virginia, but it worked out for them in the end.
As for upsets, the table below summarizes the weekend's action. As predicted, it was a wild weekend with 15 observed upsets. While MSU's unhappy ending was near the top, Boise State's loss to the Aztecs was much bigger. Overall, I went 3-5 (38%) on upset picks, while the #FPI went 4-2 (67%). I am now 18-27 (40%) on upsets for the year, while the FPI is 18-13 (58%).
Big Ten
Even if I were an uninterested observer, the main story line in the Big Ten this week was MSU's upset loss to Northwestern. In the preseason, it looked like a 4-team race for the Big Ten East title, with 6 total games that would decide the title. With MSU's on-going problems, it is looking more and more like only a 3-team race with only 3 games that will decide the title, one of which has already been played (Ohio State's win in State College). With OSU already in the driver's seat, one could easily connect the dots that the Ohio State - Michigan game to end the season is beginning to look like it could be the decisive game in the Big Ten East. Then again, the (once every) Ten Year War actually was relevant two years ago. Being relevant twice in three years? Yeah, that seems like a stretch.
The other results from the weekend suggest that the race on both sides of the Big Ten might be tightening. Very simply put, the current favorites, Ohio State and Wisconsin, failed to cover this weekend and gave up a fair amount of point to Indiana and Nebraska. Meanwhile, the two biggest apparent threats, Michigan and Iowa, both had strong performances against Maryland and Minnesota.
My updated conference projections (shown below) confirm this. In the East, OSU is still a big favorite (73%), but Michigan's odds are now over 20% and PSU's odds doubled to 6% while there were at home on the couch this weekend. In the West, even though Wisconsin owns a tie-breaker against Iowa, my math has the Badger's odds down to 58%, while Iowa's odds are now up to 38%. Northwestern even have a pulse in the race now at 5%. A big reason for this is that Iowa and Wisconsin are going in opposite directions in my power ranking system, which Iowa now ranked 10th and with Wisconsin down to 20th. Again, I take these numbers with a grain of salt, but a trend is a trend (until it's not). Overall, my math still essentially projects the Big Ten Champ to be 50% OSU and 50% the field with the Buckeye's playoff odds (46%) clearly the highest in the conference.
SEC
As for the conference whose story-line had the most twists and turns this week, that award goes to the SEC. But, it wasn't main characters in each division that brought the drama; Alabama and Georgia both had comfortable wins. It was more the minor characters that drove the plot in Chapter 6. In the East, Kentucky had a chance to establish themselves as a true threat to Georgia, but the Wildcats came up short in OT in College Station. Meanwhile, Florida got a big win against LSU. As the dust settled my spreadsheet now sees the SEC East as more of a three team race between Uga (65%), Kentucky (25%) and the Gators (11%).
In the West, LSU's loss to the Gators put a hole in their dreams of unseating Alabama, and in principle A&M and Mississippi State are still in the race after beating Kentucky and Auburn, respectively. (Wow, tough day for cats in the SEC...) However, my math says all this week's drama really accomplished was to further Bama's stranglehold on the West, and I project them to have an 87% chance to win the Division. The problem is that 1-loss A&M's only is was to Bama, and Mississippi State and Auburn already have 2 losses. So, LSU (8%) is pretty much the only team that could beat Bama and win the tie-breaker unless Bama losses two SEC games, which just seems impossible. Overall, though, my math still really likes Georgia (54%) to win the SEC (when in reality we all know Bama is likely to steam roll everybody.)
ACC
If someone wrote a book about the ACC this week, it would likely be called, "Welcome back, Clemson!" The Tiger's got Trevor Lawrence back this week, traveled to Winston-Salem and proceeded to burn down the (Wake) Forest 63-3. As a result, my spreadsheet now gives Clemson an 88% chance to win their Division, and a 58% chance to win the ACC overall. NC State took care of Boston College this weekend to establish themselves as the only viable to the Tigers (12%), although I will point out that B.C still has only one conference loss and Clemson will need to visit Boston in November (pack your parkas!)
As for the Coastal Division, it is sort of like reading a Russian novel... written in Russian. I honestly am not sure what is going on. VA Tech lost to Notre Dame this weekend, failed to cover, and my power ranking system dropped them to #24. BUT, my calculations also now give the Hokies a 93% chance to win the Coastal Division, up 4-points from last week. Huh. As I look at my power rankings, the problem seems to be that Duke (2.2%) is the only team in the Division that my computer likes, and the Hokies already beat them. Miami is 2-0 as well, but the Canes just barely scrapped by Florida State this weekend and my math says they have less than a 2% chance to win the Division. Even Virginia has better odds than that (3%). ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Big 12
For the residents of the state of Oklahoma this weekend, it probably felt like they were living in a Greek tragedy... or maybe just a Steinbeck novel. Despite the fact that both teams were favored by at least a touchdown, both Oklahoma and Oklahoma went down this weekend. One was gored by a Longhorn and the other was swept away by a Cyclone. That seems like something that would happen in a Steinbeck novel, right?
As a result, the two teams at the top of both the conference standings and my conference projections are West Virginia (who took care of Kansas this week, although a bit underwhelmingly) and the agorementioned Texas Longhorns. My spreadsheet still loves WVU enough to rank them #3 overall, with an 80% chance to win the Big 12. It is not so convinced about Texas yet (#29 overall and a 10% chance to win the conference). Either way, the Sooners will still have a shot to play themselves back into Big 12 Title game, but they may have to win out, or at least beat West Virginia in Morgantown to close the regular season. Right now the Mountaineers look like the only viable Big 12 Playoff contender. I peg their odds at 52%.
Pac 12
Out west this week, there were story-book endings for the teams from Washington, Utah, and Colorado, but in California, there were problems. The biggest problems were in Palo Alto, where Stanford failed to hold home serve against Utah and are now on a 2-game losing streak. Two weeks ago, I had Stanford as a playoff contender, and now I have them down to #30 overall with only a 10% chance to win the Pac 12 North. Meanwhile, Washington and Wazzou both took care of business to run their records to 5-1. Even thought Washington failed to cover at UCLA, I still give the Huskies a 79% chance to win the North and 54% chance to win the Pac 12 Title. Wazzou is hanging around as well at 11%.
Down South, despite being ranked in the 70s in the preseason polls, the Colorado Buffalo have risen to the top of the Pac 12 South standings after their win this weekend over Arizona State. Based on the standings, USC and Arizona are only a half game back, but my calculations say that the Buffs now have a 74% chance to win the South, with 1-2 Utah (20%) and 1-2 Arizona State (5%) as the biggest challengers. My power rankings have USC ranked all the way down at 74 with less than a 2% shot at the South. But, the rubber will hit the road next weekend as Colorado will make the trip to L.A. to square off with the Trojans. It remains to be seen who will have the happy ending.
Independents (Notre Dame)
Congratulations Notre Dame. You survived the first six weeks of the season without a loss, and as a reward, I am going to go ahead and give you you're own section this week. With the Irish's 45-23 victory at Virginia Tech this weekend, the Irish are sitting in very good shape for the playoffs. Right now, I have them as double-digit favorites in all six of their remaining games and with a 61% chance to run the table. With no bothersome conference championship game to worry about, gun-to-my-head I say that they will be in the playoffs. Even if they lose one game, I think their odds are very good, but it will certainly be very noteworthy to see where the committee places them in the first playoff poll at the end of the month. As we will see next, I currently give them the best odds overall to make the playoffs at 76%.
If the season ended today, that would be weird...
because it's only October and there are still 7 full weeks left in the season. That said, I mention in several places above my calculated odds to make the playoffs, so I figured that I might as well show the full table. Below I show the 17 current teams that I project have a >1% chance to make the playoffs. Right now, my algorithm says Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia, and West Virginia are the four most likely teams, with Ohio State and oddly, Penn State on the outside looking in. More oddly, it has Alabama all the way down in 8th place at 17%. I think the logic here is that my spreadsheet likes Georgia to win both the East and the SEC title so much that it is depressing Bama's odds.
Group of Five
The quest for the New Years Day glory in the group of five took a few interesting plot twists this week, the most critical of which was Boise State's upset loss to San Diego State. In effect, this now puts a serious dent in the Mountain West's claim on the NY6 spot. As for the impact on the standings, our old friends Utah State are now my projected favorite in the Mountain Division at 77%. In the West, despite the Aztec's big win over Boise, my calculations favor Fresno State. I have them currently ranked #21 overall with a 54% chance to win the conference title. In order to claim the NY6 spot, I think the eventual MWest Champ will need to run the table in the rest of the regular season. I give Fresno a 40% shot at that goal while Utah State's odd are at 25% and San Diego State's are at only 9%.
The biggest beneficiary of the Mountain West's problems is the eventual AAC Champ, who now looks like they have a great chance to once again claim the NY6 spot. But, it might be an interesting ride, as my calculations tell a very interesting story. In the East, there are still three teams with undefeated records: Cincinnati, UCF, and USF. If one of those teams were to win the AAC Title with one or fewer losses, they are a shoe-in. The problem is that, if you believe my math (and I am not sure we should), the current favorite in the East is actually Temple, who I now rank #26 overall and give a 40% chance to win the division and a 33% chance to win the conference. My spreadsheet really likes their wins over Maryland and East Carolina and I didn't have the heart to tell my computer what happened against Villanova in Week 1.
That said, Cincy (39%) and UCF (21%) also both have solid odds and in reality one of those teams (or USF, although my math is in a "no Bull" mode) will mostly likely win the division with one loss or fewer. In the West, Houston (91%) is the clear favorite and the Cougars could certainly win the title and claim the NY6 slot, although they likely need to run the table to do it.
But, what happens if the champ of both the Mountain West and the AAC Champ has 2 losses or more? Does one of the other league champs have a shot? Maybe. In the MAC, Buffalo is likely the only team with a shot. If they run the table, they could finish at 12-1 and make their case. After beating CMU this week (and after Ohio struggled with Kent) Buffalo is back as my favorite to win the MAC East (69%) and the MAC Overall (56%). The MAC West is still a volatile mess, but right now my math likes NIU (51%) and Western Michigan (43%). That will likely change again next weekend.
Speaking of volatile, how about that Conference USA? My calculations can't figure out what to make of it, especially the Wild West, which has a new big favorite of the week: UAB (71%). Last week the Blazer's odds were only 0.7 %. Uh, maybe I need to check the math on this one. Either way, I will at least mention that UAB and North Texas (25%) are the only C-USA teams still with just 1 loss. It is at least possible that the winner of the West Division could run the table and make the NY6 debate interesting. In the East, FIU (64%) is still the most likely champ, but Middle Tennessee (29%) made a move this week by beating Marshall.
Finally, does the FunBelt still have a chance? Well, maybe. There are still 3 teams in the East with only one loss and one of them, Appalachian State, is somehow ranked #12 in my power rankings. Considering there sole loss was a close one at Penn State, their resume could wind up being better than any other Group of Five champ.
In closing, I have two more non-story problems:
How Bad is... North Carolina?
For a few minutes, I considered asking how bad is the bottom of the ACC? Based on my current power rankings, the ACC has five teams that are ranked outside of the Top 85 of the country. Of all those bad teams, UNC is currently the lowest ranked. While they didn't exactly start the season with accolades (their consensus ranking was only 58), I currently have them as the 7th worst team in the country and the lowest ranked of all Power Five teams (including Rutgers and Kansas). I currently give them less than a 10% chance to win any of their remaining FBS games this year. Yet, somehow they still beat Pitt. (Sigh). That said, UNC is so bad that they actually earned this revered spot this week... despite being on a bye week. Ouch!
How Good is...Colorado?
In the summer, I picked the lowly (#77) ranked Colorado Buffalo to finish dead last in the Pac 12 South. Fast forward to mid October, and the Buffs are undefeated and atop the standings. None of those wins exactly came over great teams, but their win this weekend over Arizona State at least came over a team that I project to make a bowl. So, how much higher can they go? Their remaining schedule is actually pretty manageable, with the next two weeks (at USC and at Washington) being critical. After that, everything looks pretty winnable. Right now my math says they have a 72% chance to get to double digit wins in the regular season. We will see if that story checks out as the season progresses.
As for this week, here's where the story ends. Keep an eye out for my Week 7 Preview in a couple of days. Until then and as always: Go State, Beat the Lions!
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