In the Old Testament Book of Daniel, the protagonist's journey was not a simple one. In the beginning, there was a rough road trip to a far away desert land. Then, there was some dreaming, some adversity, his friends got a tan, and then for a little while things were looking up. But, somewhere around the middle of the book, the walls came crashing down, and then before he knew what hit him, he was thrown into the Lion's Den, and pretty much everybody left him for dead.
Somehow this all sounds a little too familiar.
Saturday afternoon, MSU will also be headed into the Lion's Den of Happy Valley, and their odds don't seem much better than Daniel's. Then again, the opening spread was set at +14.5. Historically, this translates to a surprisingly high 15% chance that MSU can spring the upset. Essentially, MSU has a 1 in 6 chance. Just for reference, MSU was +12 heading into Ann Arbor last year. Also, this is certainly better than my projection, which set the spread at +24, corresponding to only a 4% chance that the Spartans avoid being Lion Chow. My math says PSU wins 42-17. Then again, my spreadsheet liked MSU by 10 points last week, so it obviously isn't a prophet.
So, while Penn State is most likely going to make the Life of Brian Lewerke difficult, there are a few signs of hope. I prefer to look on the bright side of life, after all. If MSU is going to have a prayer of going biblical on the Nittany Lions, there are definitely a few things that are going to have to change. First of all, MSU's defense is going to need to continue to shut down the run, especially from McSorely, and the pass defense is going to need to repent and kick the habit of giving up a coverage bust once a game. Winning the turnover battle would also be real nice, as would Penn State being a little rusty off their bye week.
On the offensive side of the ball, I think that we all need to pray a bit that at least some of the injured players are back this week and close to full strength. Getting LJ Scott back along with a couple O-lineman and a couple of WRs would help substantially. But, no matter who is back an who isn't, I think the coaching staff needs to think carefully about the players that they do have on the field and play call and scheme to bit to play to their strengths. When those plays are called, MSU flat out needs to execute.
Last week MSU got bit by a house cat. This week, they are facing a man-eating Lion. Sure, the odds aren't great, and even at the beginning of the year, most MSU fans chalked this one up as a loss. But, because of that dynamic, this weekend's game offers the potential opportunity for MSU's season to get back on track. Can the Spartans close the Lion's mouth and come out alive? Do you believe in miracles? Well, I don't think that you need to, but just like Daniel, it probably wouldn't hurt to say a little prayer. Can I get an AMEN?
National Overview
Here is my preview chart for Week 7. The correlation between my picks and Vegas is small this week, which is notable strange. As a result, I have 14 teams to cover (including VA Tech, Temple, Utah St., Washington, Boston College, West Virginia, the Irish, & UCF.) I also have 4 teams NOT to cover: Bama, Ohio State, Auburn, & Miami (OH). That is also strange.
As for upsets, I like a total of 9 this week, including Duke over GA Tech, Colorado over USC, South Carolina over A&M, Virginia over Miami (!), and UCLA's first win of the season over Cal. The FPI only likes 3 upset, and all three are already on my list. Overall, my weekly simulation suggests to look for 13.2 ± 3.1 upsets.
Big Ten
When it comes to the Big Ten East race, all eyes will be on the state of Michigan this week. At the beginning of the season, I thought that both MSU and Penn State (-14.5) would have a shot at meeting as a pair of undefeated teams this weekend, battling it out for the shot at Indy. But, in reality the teams have three losses between them and the loser is essentially condemned to wander in the wilderness for the next 40 days with no shot at the title. Meanwhile, the Wolverines (-6.5) have to play a real team this week, namely, the Wisconsin Badgers. Wow, this opponent might even finish above 500 this year! Wisconsin is trying to maintain a safe distance from Iowa in the West, and an upset win in Ann Arbor would almost close the book on the rest of the Division. Meanwhile, Michigan needs to keep pace with Ohio State so that they can get their hopes up before the Buckeyes crush them once again in Columbus.
The other action in the Big Ten is not so compelling. Reading the book of Leviticus might be more interesting. Ohio State (-29.5) hosts Minnesota, which is not likely to be close, but my calculations suggests that the Gophers will cover. Iowa has a tricky road trip to Indiana (-6) this weekend in a game that they need to win in order to stay in the West race, and Northwestern (-9) will also try to hang around as host to the Huskers. As for the other two games on tap, the teams are really just fighting to see if any of them can get to a bowl game. Maryland (-23 vs. Rutgers) seems to have a much better shot than Purdue (-10 at Illinois).
SEC
We are now 7 weeks into the season, and no other team has consistently blown through its schedule like Georgia has. The Dawgs are currently ranked #1 in my power rankings, they are winning games by an average of 30 points, and they even have road wins over not terrible South Carolina and Missouri on their resume. This week, they travel once again, this time to LSU (+7) to face the wounded Tigers. This game seems to be much bigger for LSU, as they can't really afford to fall behind by 2 full games to Alabama in the West, and Georgia honestly could drop this one and be just fine in the East. Will this "motivation gap" matter?
Elsewhere in the East, Kentucky is celebrating the Sabbath, while Florida (-8) has a tricky, but manageable road trip to Vanderbilt. On the West side, Alabama's schedule seems to have opened up like the Red Sea and they are just careening through it like an elephant on a chariot. This week's opponent? Missouri. The line? -28. Auburn is similarly unlikely to be challenged by Tennessee (+18). That leaves the game between Texas A&M and South Carolina in Columbia. The Cocks are a 2-point dog in this match-up, but my math has a good feeling about it. Texas A&M's title chances in the West are on life support, while South Carolina has effectively already passed into the afterlife. (Aggies! Don't walk toward the light!!!)
ACC
Not much is happening the Coastal Division this week as the two main contenders (Clemson and NC State) are enjoying a day of rest. As long as Boston College (-15) can avoid an upset at the hands of Louisville, it is pretty much status quo. But, on the Atlantic Side, the action is hotter than fire and brimstone. Right now, the most interesting question in my mind is who is actually the best team and favorite in this division? The human polls right now like Miami, who this week travel to Virginia (+7). My spreadsheet, however, has not been at all impressed with the Canes. I like the Cavaliers in an upset.
My spreadsheet actually likes Duke as the best team in the division and the Devils are going down to Georgia this week to face the Yellow Jackets. Oddly, GA Tech is favored by 3, which my spreadsheet thinks is hilarious, as it favors Duke by almost 20. No word yet on whether the half time show will feature a fiddling contest FOR YOUR SOUL!
But at the end of the day, my projections still like VA Tech to actually win the Division (seeing as they own the tie breaker with Duke already). The Hokies travel to UNC (+6) and once again, this spread seems way out of wack. I like VA Tech by 35. In any event, it will be enlightening to see how each of these three teams fare this weekend.
Big 12
Texas's big upset of Oklahoma last week has turned the Big 12 race on its head, as the Longhorns and West Virginia have now risen to the top of the standings. Texas should be able to protect that first place slot this week as they face Baylor (+17) at home. WVU, however, has a much stiffer test as they are on the road to face Iowa State (+4.5). My metrics absolutely love the Mountaineers right now, but I am not sure that they have really been tested yet. The Cyclones gave Oklahoma, Iowa, and TCU all some trouble and have not lost a game yet by more than 10 points. If WVU can blow them out in Ames, I think that we need to consider that they are the real deal.
Speaking of TCU, they are a bit of a forgotten team in the Big 12, but they only have one loss in conference play. They will try to stay that way this weekend vs Texas Tech (+7.5). Also, speaking of Oklahoma, they are yet another team enjoying a day of rest this Saturday, where they can meditate on the idea of no longer having a defensive coordinator.
Pac 12
Back in the summer, I prophesied that Oregon would be the surprise winner of the Pac 12 South after they took out both Stanford and Washington in Eugene. The Ducks narrowed missed out on the first half of my prediction, and this week, they will get a shot at the second. Washington is a narrow 3.5-point favorite in what should be the game of the week out West.
But, not all the action is in the North this week as an unexpected battle for 1st place will occur in L.A. as undefeated Colorado visits USC (-7). Despite the fact that the Trojans are favored by a touchdown, my spreadsheet like the Buffs to remain undefeated. Also in the South, Arizona tangles with Utah (-13) and UCLA goes for their first win of the season at Berkeley. Cal might be favored by 7.5, but my math likes the Bruins in the upset.
Independents / Group of Five
For the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, their cruise control is set and a course is plotted directly for Playoffsville. If you hear anything about them at all in the next few weeks, it's because they did somethings really, really stupid. This week's speed bump: the Pitt Panthers (+21). Good luck Coach Narduzzi!
After Boise State played themselves out of the conversation for the NY6 last week, the focus now turns to the AAC and more specifically on the AAC East's three undefeated teams: UCF, USF, and Cincinnati. Whoever comes out on top in the AAC East has an excellent chance to make the NY6, assuming that they don't choke in the AAC title game against (most likely) Houston. Cincy is observing the Sabbath this weekend, but the other two squads do face interesting road challenges. In the preseason, I projected UCF to lose this weekend's game at Memphis. But, the Tigers have struggled this year so far. The Knights are only a 4-point favorite, but I project them to cover easily. Meanwhile USF travels to Tulsa (+7.5). It looks like they have to deal with a Hurricane this week one way or the other. Finally, don't sleep on the Temple Owls, and not just because they're nocturnal. They are also undefeated in conference play and hope to stay that way this week at Navy (+4.5).
If the AAC somehow squanders their opportunity, the eventual winner of the Mountain West might be able to squeak in. Utah State, Fresno State, and San Diego State all have only one loss, and all three are at least a TD favorite this weekend. In MACtion, Buffalo is also hanging on with one loss, a situation that they hope to maintain this week against Akron (+9).
In C-USA, UAB is still alive for the NY6 bid and hope to stay that way at Rice (+16), while Middle Tennessee State travels to Florida International (-2.5) in a battle for first in the C-USA East. Finally, Appalachian State will get a NY6 look if they run the table, and this week that played Tuesday night and beat robes off Arkansas State 35-9.
Thus ends the lesson for this week. (Try to) enjoy the games this weekend and, as always, Go State, Beat the Lions!
Somehow this all sounds a little too familiar.
Saturday afternoon, MSU will also be headed into the Lion's Den of Happy Valley, and their odds don't seem much better than Daniel's. Then again, the opening spread was set at +14.5. Historically, this translates to a surprisingly high 15% chance that MSU can spring the upset. Essentially, MSU has a 1 in 6 chance. Just for reference, MSU was +12 heading into Ann Arbor last year. Also, this is certainly better than my projection, which set the spread at +24, corresponding to only a 4% chance that the Spartans avoid being Lion Chow. My math says PSU wins 42-17. Then again, my spreadsheet liked MSU by 10 points last week, so it obviously isn't a prophet.
So, while Penn State is most likely going to make the Life of Brian Lewerke difficult, there are a few signs of hope. I prefer to look on the bright side of life, after all. If MSU is going to have a prayer of going biblical on the Nittany Lions, there are definitely a few things that are going to have to change. First of all, MSU's defense is going to need to continue to shut down the run, especially from McSorely, and the pass defense is going to need to repent and kick the habit of giving up a coverage bust once a game. Winning the turnover battle would also be real nice, as would Penn State being a little rusty off their bye week.
On the offensive side of the ball, I think that we all need to pray a bit that at least some of the injured players are back this week and close to full strength. Getting LJ Scott back along with a couple O-lineman and a couple of WRs would help substantially. But, no matter who is back an who isn't, I think the coaching staff needs to think carefully about the players that they do have on the field and play call and scheme to bit to play to their strengths. When those plays are called, MSU flat out needs to execute.
Last week MSU got bit by a house cat. This week, they are facing a man-eating Lion. Sure, the odds aren't great, and even at the beginning of the year, most MSU fans chalked this one up as a loss. But, because of that dynamic, this weekend's game offers the potential opportunity for MSU's season to get back on track. Can the Spartans close the Lion's mouth and come out alive? Do you believe in miracles? Well, I don't think that you need to, but just like Daniel, it probably wouldn't hurt to say a little prayer. Can I get an AMEN?
National Overview
Here is my preview chart for Week 7. The correlation between my picks and Vegas is small this week, which is notable strange. As a result, I have 14 teams to cover (including VA Tech, Temple, Utah St., Washington, Boston College, West Virginia, the Irish, & UCF.) I also have 4 teams NOT to cover: Bama, Ohio State, Auburn, & Miami (OH). That is also strange.
As for upsets, I like a total of 9 this week, including Duke over GA Tech, Colorado over USC, South Carolina over A&M, Virginia over Miami (!), and UCLA's first win of the season over Cal. The FPI only likes 3 upset, and all three are already on my list. Overall, my weekly simulation suggests to look for 13.2 ± 3.1 upsets.
Big Ten
When it comes to the Big Ten East race, all eyes will be on the state of Michigan this week. At the beginning of the season, I thought that both MSU and Penn State (-14.5) would have a shot at meeting as a pair of undefeated teams this weekend, battling it out for the shot at Indy. But, in reality the teams have three losses between them and the loser is essentially condemned to wander in the wilderness for the next 40 days with no shot at the title. Meanwhile, the Wolverines (-6.5) have to play a real team this week, namely, the Wisconsin Badgers. Wow, this opponent might even finish above 500 this year! Wisconsin is trying to maintain a safe distance from Iowa in the West, and an upset win in Ann Arbor would almost close the book on the rest of the Division. Meanwhile, Michigan needs to keep pace with Ohio State so that they can get their hopes up before the Buckeyes crush them once again in Columbus.
The other action in the Big Ten is not so compelling. Reading the book of Leviticus might be more interesting. Ohio State (-29.5) hosts Minnesota, which is not likely to be close, but my calculations suggests that the Gophers will cover. Iowa has a tricky road trip to Indiana (-6) this weekend in a game that they need to win in order to stay in the West race, and Northwestern (-9) will also try to hang around as host to the Huskers. As for the other two games on tap, the teams are really just fighting to see if any of them can get to a bowl game. Maryland (-23 vs. Rutgers) seems to have a much better shot than Purdue (-10 at Illinois).
SEC
We are now 7 weeks into the season, and no other team has consistently blown through its schedule like Georgia has. The Dawgs are currently ranked #1 in my power rankings, they are winning games by an average of 30 points, and they even have road wins over not terrible South Carolina and Missouri on their resume. This week, they travel once again, this time to LSU (+7) to face the wounded Tigers. This game seems to be much bigger for LSU, as they can't really afford to fall behind by 2 full games to Alabama in the West, and Georgia honestly could drop this one and be just fine in the East. Will this "motivation gap" matter?
Elsewhere in the East, Kentucky is celebrating the Sabbath, while Florida (-8) has a tricky, but manageable road trip to Vanderbilt. On the West side, Alabama's schedule seems to have opened up like the Red Sea and they are just careening through it like an elephant on a chariot. This week's opponent? Missouri. The line? -28. Auburn is similarly unlikely to be challenged by Tennessee (+18). That leaves the game between Texas A&M and South Carolina in Columbia. The Cocks are a 2-point dog in this match-up, but my math has a good feeling about it. Texas A&M's title chances in the West are on life support, while South Carolina has effectively already passed into the afterlife. (Aggies! Don't walk toward the light!!!)
ACC
Not much is happening the Coastal Division this week as the two main contenders (Clemson and NC State) are enjoying a day of rest. As long as Boston College (-15) can avoid an upset at the hands of Louisville, it is pretty much status quo. But, on the Atlantic Side, the action is hotter than fire and brimstone. Right now, the most interesting question in my mind is who is actually the best team and favorite in this division? The human polls right now like Miami, who this week travel to Virginia (+7). My spreadsheet, however, has not been at all impressed with the Canes. I like the Cavaliers in an upset.
My spreadsheet actually likes Duke as the best team in the division and the Devils are going down to Georgia this week to face the Yellow Jackets. Oddly, GA Tech is favored by 3, which my spreadsheet thinks is hilarious, as it favors Duke by almost 20. No word yet on whether the half time show will feature a fiddling contest FOR YOUR SOUL!
But at the end of the day, my projections still like VA Tech to actually win the Division (seeing as they own the tie breaker with Duke already). The Hokies travel to UNC (+6) and once again, this spread seems way out of wack. I like VA Tech by 35. In any event, it will be enlightening to see how each of these three teams fare this weekend.
Big 12
Texas's big upset of Oklahoma last week has turned the Big 12 race on its head, as the Longhorns and West Virginia have now risen to the top of the standings. Texas should be able to protect that first place slot this week as they face Baylor (+17) at home. WVU, however, has a much stiffer test as they are on the road to face Iowa State (+4.5). My metrics absolutely love the Mountaineers right now, but I am not sure that they have really been tested yet. The Cyclones gave Oklahoma, Iowa, and TCU all some trouble and have not lost a game yet by more than 10 points. If WVU can blow them out in Ames, I think that we need to consider that they are the real deal.
Speaking of TCU, they are a bit of a forgotten team in the Big 12, but they only have one loss in conference play. They will try to stay that way this weekend vs Texas Tech (+7.5). Also, speaking of Oklahoma, they are yet another team enjoying a day of rest this Saturday, where they can meditate on the idea of no longer having a defensive coordinator.
Pac 12
Back in the summer, I prophesied that Oregon would be the surprise winner of the Pac 12 South after they took out both Stanford and Washington in Eugene. The Ducks narrowed missed out on the first half of my prediction, and this week, they will get a shot at the second. Washington is a narrow 3.5-point favorite in what should be the game of the week out West.
But, not all the action is in the North this week as an unexpected battle for 1st place will occur in L.A. as undefeated Colorado visits USC (-7). Despite the fact that the Trojans are favored by a touchdown, my spreadsheet like the Buffs to remain undefeated. Also in the South, Arizona tangles with Utah (-13) and UCLA goes for their first win of the season at Berkeley. Cal might be favored by 7.5, but my math likes the Bruins in the upset.
Independents / Group of Five
For the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, their cruise control is set and a course is plotted directly for Playoffsville. If you hear anything about them at all in the next few weeks, it's because they did somethings really, really stupid. This week's speed bump: the Pitt Panthers (+21). Good luck Coach Narduzzi!
After Boise State played themselves out of the conversation for the NY6 last week, the focus now turns to the AAC and more specifically on the AAC East's three undefeated teams: UCF, USF, and Cincinnati. Whoever comes out on top in the AAC East has an excellent chance to make the NY6, assuming that they don't choke in the AAC title game against (most likely) Houston. Cincy is observing the Sabbath this weekend, but the other two squads do face interesting road challenges. In the preseason, I projected UCF to lose this weekend's game at Memphis. But, the Tigers have struggled this year so far. The Knights are only a 4-point favorite, but I project them to cover easily. Meanwhile USF travels to Tulsa (+7.5). It looks like they have to deal with a Hurricane this week one way or the other. Finally, don't sleep on the Temple Owls, and not just because they're nocturnal. They are also undefeated in conference play and hope to stay that way this week at Navy (+4.5).
If the AAC somehow squanders their opportunity, the eventual winner of the Mountain West might be able to squeak in. Utah State, Fresno State, and San Diego State all have only one loss, and all three are at least a TD favorite this weekend. In MACtion, Buffalo is also hanging on with one loss, a situation that they hope to maintain this week against Akron (+9).
In C-USA, UAB is still alive for the NY6 bid and hope to stay that way at Rice (+16), while Middle Tennessee State travels to Florida International (-2.5) in a battle for first in the C-USA East. Finally, Appalachian State will get a NY6 look if they run the table, and this week that played Tuesday night and beat robes off Arkansas State 35-9.
Thus ends the lesson for this week. (Try to) enjoy the games this weekend and, as always, Go State, Beat the Lions!
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