2018, Week 7 Recap: Game Changer

Game-changer, noun

Definition:
1) A newly introduced element or factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way
2) Felton Davis III

Going into this weekend's contest with Penn State, I didn't know what to think.  I knew the odds were against MSU, but I also felt that there was and is a good team in East Lansing, somewhere. I figured that at some point in the season, we would see that team.  I just wasn't sure when that would happen.  When I saw the graphic at the being of the game showing the 6 major contributors who didn't even make the trip, my heart sunk a bit.  It sunk a bit more when early in the game MSU gave up a 75 yd TD run on a busted assignment.  But, MSU kept fighting and they kept hanging around.  In the later stages, things looked bleak: the failed fake FG, the punt with 2 minutes to go... but, I never felt the game was over.  If nothing else, when James Franklin is on the opposite sidelines, you know you have a chance.

Then, there was the final drive. An offense that has failed so miserably in past 4th quarters suddenly started making clutch plays. There was the screen pass to Heyward, a pair of catches by Nelson, another grab by Heyward, and then... the game changer by Davis. Game. Set. Match.

Just as Felton's catch was a game-changer in this particular contest, this weekend's win in State College is a game-changer for the rest of the season.  Instead of limping home with a 3-3 record, MSU is 4-2 and now very much in the hunt for the East Division. On paper, the game at Penn State was the toughest one on MSU's schedule. If MSU can win in State College, they can beat any team left on their schedule.

Will they? That remains to be seen.  The injury situation is edging towards improvement... at every position except WR. That is going to continue to be an adventure going forward. As for more reason to temper enthusiasm my spreadsheet still only has MSU winning 7 games (7.09 to be exact) and projects MSU to be the underdog this weekend as well as vs OSU and even at Maryland.  The odds to make it to a Bowl increased substantially, though, going to 95%.

But, people has bet against Mark Dantonio before, and especially in October and November those people are usually wrong.  As for this season, the game has changed at least for one week.  Let's hope that change continues to be positive.

National Overview

Here is my results chart for Week 7. Much like MSU, the spreadsheet got back to its winning ways, going 10-8 (56%) on covers and 30-24 (56%) overall ATS. The FPI did even better, going 32-22 (59%). To date, I am 46-43 (52%) on covers and 170-193 (47%) ATS.  So, just like MSU, it still has some work to do.  As for teams that over-achieved this week, Purdue and UAB can make that claim.  As for underachievers, Ohio State, Texas, and Notre Dame are the headliners.

Shown below is the upset table for Week 7.  It was a wild week with 15 total upsets, a bit more than the expected 13. Moreover, 10 of those 15 upsets were in Power 5 conference play.  My spreadsheet did well here also, going 4-5 (44%) while the FPI only got 1 of 3 (33%). I am now 22-32 (41%) for upset picks, while the #FPI is 19-15 (56%) for the year.

Big Ten

It was a game changing week all the way around in the Big Ten. Looking at all the final scores, there actually was just the one little upset in (un)Happy Valley.  The other six game all essentially went to plan. The interesting thing was how the other games played out.  Specifically, the two teams with the assumed edge in each Division (Ohio State and Wisconsin) for at least the 2nd week in a row had pretty rough weekends.  The Buckeyes still won, of course, but (as I predicted) they failed to cover for the 2nd straight week... at home.  There are those that are whispering that the Buckeye's might be vulnerable, and my spreadsheet agrees.

As for the Badgers, what can I say, other than you clowns are a tremendous disappointment to your state, your conference, and your country.  Also, please next time consider just never throwing the ball. At all.  Losers... As a result of their utter incompetence, and the aforementioned sluggishness in Columbus, my calculations now show the Big Ten East race tightening considerably, with Ohio State now only having a 56% chance to win the Division compared to 42% for the Shunkbears.  As you might expect Penn State, with 2 losses, is now really up against it, as their odds have fallen to just 0.1%.  MSU's odds ticked up, but are only at 1.7%.. for now. And, don't quite forget about Maryland. They crushed Rutgers this week and still have MSU, OSU, and PSU on the schedule, two of which are at home.

As for the East, the Very Bad Thing that Wisconsin did this week also resulted in a 4-way tie in the loss column for the BADgers, Iowa, Purdue, and Northwestern, the last three of which all won this weekend.  The Wildcats were very fortunate to escape the game with the Cornhuskers, but they are somehow 3-1 in conference play which is good enough for a half-game lead.  Meanwhile, both Purdue and Iowa easily covered on the road at Illinois and Indiana this week.  When I added everything up, my spreadsheet now favors Iowa once again to win the West with 66.6% odds, while Wischokesin is back at 26% and Purdue and Northwestern hanging back at around 3%.  More than that, My calculations actually have Iowa as the highest ranked Big Ten team overall with a 36% chance to win the conference overall and a 19% chance to make the Playoffs. Huh.

SEC

The Big Ten was not alone in game-changing results, as the SEC had not one, but two major upsets this weekend.  The biggest upset of the weekend overall, spread-wise, was Tennessee's 6-point win over Auburn, despite being 18-point dogs.  In the grand scheme of things, this doesn't really affect too much, as Auburn had 2 losses anyway, but it actually positions Tennessee in a spot where they just might be able to sneak into a bowl game... nah, just kidding, that still won't happen.

The biggest upset as far as impact was, of course, LSU's 20-point smack down of Georgia.  But, as I stated in my preview, this game was really all about LSU staying in the SEC West race.  With the win, I now project the Tigers to have a 26% chance to win the West.  But, in order to believe that, you also need to believe my math which suggests LSU will essentially be a pick'em in a few weeks when they host Alabama.  Just between you and me, I saw what Nick Saban does to Tigers this week (at least the kind from Missouri) and let's just say that it isn't pretty, and I am not going to hold my breath.  Also, Texas A&M managed to beat South Carolina this week in Columbia, which keeps the Aggies in the race with still about a 2% chance.

As for the SEC East race, Georgia is actually not in that bad of shape.  Yes, Florida and Kentucky are still hanging around, and no, Georgia doesn't play either team in Athens this year, but there is a reasonable chance that they needed to beat them both anyway in order to avoid a tie-breaker problem down the road.  The only real difficultly is that if they do stumble again, they essentially have very little chance at the Playoffs.  Oddly, my spreadsheet actually has the Top 3 teams in the SEC East ranking in the Top 4 of my power rankings, and as such it actually favors Kentucky to win the Division (45%) with Florida and Georgia hanging around just under 30%.  

ACC

An outsider would likely comment that there was some game-changing activity in the Coastal Division of the ACC this weekend, but my spreadsheet would simply say, "Yup, told you so."  (Or, "79757020746f6c6420796f7520736f" #mathjoke)  That is because the two big upsets of the weekend: Duke over GA Tech (easily the most predictable upset of the week) and Virginia over Miami, were both predicted by my calculations.  As a personal aside, this is one of the reasons I like to tinker with these numbers.  My spreadsheet makes a lot of predictions.  Many of these predictions are wrong.  However, sometimes the math can spot a real trend (like the fact that Miami is not that good) before the "eye testers" are willing to admit it.   I think that this was in full force this weekend.

(Now back to the action...)  These upset results, coupled with VA Tech's very fortunate escape from Chapel Hill leaves the Coastal Division in an odd spot.  My spreadsheet doesn't exactly think anyone in that division is that good, except maybe Duke (ranked 14th). But, Duke already lost to VA Tech (ranked 46th), which is still better than both Virginia (48th) and Miami (51st).  So, as a result, my calculations still like VA Tech to win the Division (73% odds) with Duke (12%), UVA (10%), and Miami (5%) still hanging around.

As for the Atlantic Division, Boston College didn't choke, so they are still technically alive.  Other than that, Clemson's playoff odds went up to north of 75% with out them getting off the couch, due to other teams generally sucking.  (Once again, looking at you, Wisconsin. Grrrrrrr)

Big 12

So the Big 12 must have had a relatively quiet, game-changer free weekend right? Uh, no.  Actually, I count a total of three upsets on the Plains this week, including Kansas State's win over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech's upset of TCU, and Iowa State upset of West Virginia.  Even Texas has a bit of trouble putting away Baylor.  The Longhorns did win, but they failed to cover.  When the dust in dust bowl land settled, Texas now stands alone in first place at 4-0, with WVU, Oklahoma (who was smart enough to stay inside this week), and Texas Tech all with one loss.  But, my power rankings actually still like West Virginia and Oklahoma more than Texas and as a result, my math basically has it as a 3-team race with WVU (37%) slightly ahead of the Sooners (31%) and the Longhorns (29%).  The Sooner's Playoff hopes also took a major uptick, but they are still at just 18%.

Pac 12

This leaves us with the Pac 12, which must have had a drama free weekend, right?  Well, if you are a Washington Huskies fan, the answer is certainly "no."  In the preseason, I picked Oregon to be the surprise team in the Pac 12 North, mostly because they drew both Stanford and Washington in Eugene.  Well, a few weeks ago they should have beaten the Cardinal and this week they did beat the Huskies.  This result leaves the division in a bit of a jumble, as those two squads, plus Stanford and Wazzou all have one loss in conference play.  My spreadsheet has essentially no faith in the Ducks, however, and therefore still thinks the Huskies will take the North (55%), with Washington State and Stanford (who both took the weekend off) both in play with odds a bit over 20%.

In the also messy Pac 12 South, USC was able to hand Colorado their first loss of the season and it would seem that the Trojans have risen up to first place with a record of 3-1.  However, my spreadsheet continues to not be impressed and still likes either Colorado or Utah (who pounded Arizona this weekend) to win the division. It gives both team's about a 35% chance to win the division, while USC's odds are only around 17%.  Once again, time will tell whether or not my spreadsheet is right about the Duck and Trojans or not.  Either way, the odds of the Pac 12 champs making the Playoffs looks grim.  I peg those odds at less than 5%.

Oh, as I predicted, UCLA got their first win of the season this year over their University of California brethren in Berkeley.  This means that Nebraska is now the only Power 5 team in the country without a win. Your move, Huskers!

Independents / Group of Five

For the rest of the country, a few teams got some scares, but in the end, there actually were no truly game-changing events.  Notre Dame is on the drunken-stagger-to-the-Playoffs part of their schedule and they almost got tripped up by the Pitt Panthers, but they sobered up soon enough to survive and advance.  

In the Group of Five, several AAC teams avoided a scare, but in the end UCF, South Florida, and Houston all won to stay alive in the chase for the AAC Title and likely NY6 bid (along with idle Cincinnati).  My spreadsheet current likes Cincinnati to take the AAC title (45%), with Temple (21%) as the 2nd choice.  Considering that the Owls already have 3 non-conference losses, this seems like the best possible path for one of the other G5 teams to play on New Year's Eve.

If there is some chaotic event in the AAC, I count exactly 8 other Group of Five teams who might be able to grab that NY6 slot if they run the table.  The next likely place to look is the Mountain West, where Utah State, Fresno State, and San Diego State all have just one loss.  I think even Boise State might be still a contender with their current 2 losses, if everything broke just right.  After that, Buffalo, with wins over Rutgers and Temple would be in play.  UAB in C-USA still has just one loss, as does both App State and Georgia Southern in the Funbelt.  All eight teams won this week, and I think all 8 are still in play, at least until the next game-changing event.

More details about my current projections for the other four Group of Five conference is shown below.

and finally...

If the Season Ended Today... That Would be Weird...

because it's only mid-October. That said, here is my updated Playoff Leader Board.  After a lot of odd picks in the first few weeks, my calculations seem to have latched onto the consensus opinion.  I now project Notre Dame, Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State to make the Playoffs.  It's the teams in 5th through 9th place that are really interesting: NC State, Florida, Iowa, Oklahoma, and Kentucky.  Can one of those teams break through. That sure would be a game changer as well (except you, Oklahoma...)

Well, I think that is enough for now.  Stay tuned for my Week 8 preview in a couple of days.  I hear that there is a pretty interesting Big Ten coming up this week... Until then, and as always, Go State, Beat the Skunk-bears!