Happy Rivalry Week everyone! It is a special time of year here is the state of Michigan. The color in the leaves is in full effect. The temperature is dipping into the sweatshirt and hot chocolate range. Cider is a-pouring, and I am personally main-lining cider mill donuts like it's my job. Oh, and it just so happens that there is a pretty big football game taking place in East Lansing this weekend. Who is that team that we will be hosting? Based on their poor hygiene practices and that unique combination of mouth breathing interlaced with loud bragging and uninformed predictions, it can only mean one thing: it's Michigan Week.
Just a few short days ago, things seemed a bit bleak. The loss to Northwestern sent Spartan Nation into a frustrated, dark tailspin. For many Spartan fans that grew up in the lean years of the 70s, 80s, and 90s, this is a natural response. I think it is a little bit like kids that grew up in the Depression. We greedily consume every tidbit of success that we have, and then even after years of living in a nice house with a steady income and money in the bank, there is still that voice in the back of our heads that says, "Don't be wasteful! Save your money! Disaster could be right around the corner!" Meanwhile, our Wolverine buddies are like the kid whose family fell on hard time a decade ago, are currently living in a trailer park, but are maxing out credit cards to try to maintain a certain appearance of wealth. "Don't worry, Sparty, Dad said he had a job interview yesterday that went really well, and in a few months we'll be living in a mansion." Yeah, Jimmy, sure you will.
But, here we are in mid-October of 2018, and MSU and UofM will once again be going toe-to-toe in one of the six key games that will decide the Big Ten East. Two of those games are already in the books. Penn State lost to both Ohio State and MSU at home. The Lions are likely out of the running, although they could certainly put a dent in UofM's season is just a few weeks. MSU's win last week may have just turned MSU's season around. It certainly has lifted the spirits of MSU fans and made this week's game much more relevant. But the final score of that Michigan-Wisconsin game sure looked nice in the funny papers, and now there is talk of a Playoff run in Ann Arbor. This is the first of three critical Big Ten East games involving the University of Michigan, and this is a chance for them to show that they too can get a win on the road against a contender. I mean, they haven't done something like that in over a decade, but... whatever.
Michigan opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and the math tells me MSU's chances at victory are at 32%. If that seems bad, MSU had far worse odds the last two years, and this year's spread is identical to the one in 2015. Anyone remember how that game ended? Honestly, the biggest factor in this game is obvious, and that is the health of MSU's wide receiver corp. If MSU had a health Cody White, Darrel Stewart, Speedy Nailor, and Felton Davis, I think MSU wins this game going away. Even the depression-era part of my brain would have been guardedly optimistic. But, in the current situation, the outlook is much less clear. But, when it comes down to it, I still think MSU will find a way to win this game, and the reason for me is quite clear:
MSU gets the benefit of the doubt. Michigan does not.
Sure, the Vegas spread says Michigan should win this game. I get that better than most. But, sometimes you have to look at the intangibles a little more closely to get the full picture. Just consider MSU's season so far. Before the Arizona State game, a lot of people warned that no Big Ten team had ever won in the desert, especially after dark. "Nah," I said, the math said MSU should win. But, they didn't. The intangible trend trumped the logical prediction. A few weeks later, MSU was a healthy favorite against Northwestern. A lot of people warned, "Pat Fitzgerald has MSU's number, this game is going to be tough. "Nah," I said, the math says MSU should win... but they didn't.
How is this weekend's game any different? Sure, Michigan fans and the talking heads will point to their apparently improving offence, and Don Brown, and Harbaugh, and recruiting, and winged helmets, and Slippery Rock, and all-time wins, and THE TEAM, and Bo, and the 1970s, and... you get the idea. The problem is, this is exactly the same, tired narrative that we heard ever. single. year. for. decades. But, the reality is, MSU has won 8 of the last 10, and covered the spread in 10 of those 10 years, this game is in East Lansing, and Mark Dantonio is still MSU's coach. Those two loses in the last 10 came during years when MSU had a 1st year, unproven QB. So, why, again, are the Wolverines so confident? Why is this year different? Harbaugh has shown exactly zero capability to beat his rivals. Zero. What's changed?
So, yeah, I can't help but be optimistic about this weekend. Sure, trend are trends until they are not. Is it possible that UofM will benefit from MSU's injuries, a coverage bust, or a bad decision from Lewerke? Sure. Is it possible that Michigan's defense will be so dominant that MSU's offense will be completely disrupted? Absolutely. Is is possible that Michigan's offense actually is better and will test MSU's D? Well.... I guess it's possible. But, you know what? (and my Depression-Era-Child brain is screaming as I type this...) I kind of doubt it.
National Overview
Here is my preview chart for Week 8. It's a fairly pedestrian looking chart where I pick only seven teams to cover (App St, Syracuse, Missouri, Army, Wazzou, Utah, and FIU) while only Bama is predicted not to cover at Tennessee. Interesting...
As for upsets, I like a total of 8 this week, including Oregon State, Central Michigan, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. The FPI likes only 4 (weak!). Based on my weekly simulation, we can expect to see 12.2 ± 2.9 upsets, with hopefully one in East Lansing.
Big Ten
As I look through the line-up in the Big Ten this weekend, I must admit, the picking is a bit sparse. Actually, I have no idea how the MSU-UofM (-6.5) game wound up at noon. Let's take a look at those remaining six oh-so compelling match-ups: Northwestern at Rutgers (+21.5. Yes, The Scarlet Knights are a 20+-point underdog to Northwestern AT HOME); Illinois at Wisconsin (-25.5, snore!); Maryland at Iowa (-13.5, maybe?); Penn State at Indiana (+13, can Penn State avoid a 3-game skid? Probably); Ohio State at Purdue (+12, this one could be closer than many think... but, really?); and finally Minnesota at Nebraska (-5... do not adjust your screen, and, no, that is not a typo, the Corn Huskers are actually favored.)
There are a few potentially interesting story lines here. Will Iowa continue to look pretty damn good? I think so. Will Ohio Sate or Penn State return to looking dominant? Maybe... Will Nebraska actually win a game? My calculations and the FPI both say, "I doubt it." I certainly am curious to know the answers to those questions. But, the Battle for Paul Bunyan is clearly the biggest game of the weekend, and probably still would have been even if MSU were to have lost to Penn State by 28. Also, getting to campus on time for a noon game with my current family obligations is not that easy, so basically, screw you schedule guy!
With this lack of other games to really talk about, I will spend a few more paragraph discussing the bigger impact of this week's game in East Lansing. If MSU wins, the Spartans move ahead of Michigan in the queue with a shot to knock off Ohio State and win the East. That is a big deal, of course, as any shot at a Championship is great. However, considering that MSU already has a conference loss, even if the Spartans beats Michigan, MSU needs to win out to make sure the (Once Every) Ten Year War is truly meaningless again this year, as the Good Lord intended it to be. While I still like MSU's odds to find a way to win this weekend, I am not as confident that this beat-up team can make it through the next 5 weeks without tripping up again. MSU could even beat OSU, but if they drop another random game (@ Maryland, vs. Purdue, @ Nebrsaka?) they once again would lose control of their destiny. By contrast, Michigan could still run the table and make it to Indy with a loss this weekend. In all likelihood, the Michigan-Ohio State game is still going to decide the conference champ. Gross.
A loss by MSU would likely send Spartan Nation back into a tailspin of sorts. Major doubt about the rest of the season would creep in. A Bowl game still seems likely now, but not guaranteed. A loss to Michigan would mean 8-4 starts to look like the best-case scenario. That looks a whole lot better that some predictions after last weekend, but the benefit and momentum gained after last weeks thrilling win would be mostly lost.
So, from MSU's point of view, avoiding the loss is more important than getting the win, if that makes sense. But, the same can be said for the Wolverines. Losing to MSU for the 9th time in 11 tries would deal the Wolverines a crushing blow to their over-confident, smug psyches. Doubt just might start to creep into their little brains. For one, it would completely end all of the premature Playoff chatter from the talking heads. That, coupled with another loss to the Buckeyes could literally push the program to a tipping point, which could, quite honestly, break it. It is hard to imagine now, with all the bravado coming out of Ann Arbor, but if Harbaugh were to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place AGAIN, without a win over a rival AGAIN, things could get real ugly real quick. Some say Jimmy is untouchable. I have personally heard the whispers. I don't think that he is. They would be in full freak-out mode. It would be beautiful. Harbaugh might even go full-on John L Smith (SMILE!) I have been saving a special bag of popcorn in my pantry for just such as occasion. It flavored with the salt from Wolverine tears...
But, I digress. In summary, MSU winning this weekend would be pretty awesome on multiple fronts. So, let's just go ahead and do that, shall we?
SEC
After the exciting, game-changing action in the SEC last week, I was dying to see what the conference had in store for us this week. Unfortunately, it is doubtful that it will be interesting. In the East, both Florida and Georgia have byes, while Kentucky (-11.5) will play host to Vanderbilt. That game might have been interesting if it were being played in Nashville, but I suspect UK will benefit from the getting the game at home. Out West, Texas A&M is on a bye. Alabama is in action where they must travel to Knoxville to face Tennessee, who is red hot after their first one-game SEC win streak since 2016. I doubt the Vols will Bama much trouble. That leaves LSU, who is legitimately hot after their big win over UGA last weekend. The Tigers (-6.5) will face Mississippi Sate this week, which could be tricky, but I suspect LSU will also benefit from the game being at home.
ACC
At first glance, I had some doubt that there would be much to talk about in the ACC this week either. Six of the 14 teams are on a bye, leaving a total of only 4 conference games. Two of those games essentially involve teams that are likely already out of the race: Wake Forest at Florida State (-11) and UNC at Syracuse (-12). But, the other two games really caught my interest. On the Coastal side, Virginia travel to Duke (-8). Now, please do not adjust your screen. It is still October and this is not Tony Bennett vs. Coach K. Yet, both of these teams are still vying for position in the very volatile Coastal Division. The loser of this game likely will drop out of contention. Conventional wisdom suggests that the winner is still unlikely to contend, but have you seen the competition? Miami, Virginia Tech, and Pitt all also have one loss, and all three teams have had more than one stinker of a game on their resume. I still kinda think Duke is going to win this division...
But, the game that might be bigger than you realize is the marquee match-up in the Atlantic Division of NC State at Clemson (-17). The Wolfpack have been flying a bit under the radar this year, but they one of only five undefeated teams left in the Power 5. They come in as pretty big underdogs, but if they can somehow pull off the upset, it will send shock waves through the conference and the nation. The rest of NC State's schedule is very manageable. Based on my projections, the only game left that would be ever a minor test would be next week's game at Syracuse. Win that one, and the Pack could easily run their record to 11-0 and win the division. Moreover, even if they were to drop a game, they would hold the tiebreaker over both Clemson and even BC (the only other team in the division with less than 2 losses). Clemson's odds to win the division would approach zero.
Ironically, this might not wind up hurting the Tigers so much. If Clemson finishes at 11-1, there is a good chance that they still make the playoffs. But, what happens if NC State wins the ACC Championship Game and finishes at 12-0? They would also have to make the Playoffs, right? What if Notre Dame wins out? All of a sudden the Playoffs slots would be at a real premium. The SEC Champ would be a virtual lock as well. So, the Big 12 Champ, Big Ten Champ, and Clemson would all potentially be fighting for one spot. Either that, or you have to turn down a Power 5 team that went undefeated. Honestly, it would be a mess. If the committee is smart, they will all be saying a little prayer for Clemson this week. (Sorry, NC State.)
Big 12
Hey, where did the Big 12 go? With 6 out of 10 teams on a bye week, that leaves only two games... and one of them involves Kansas (at Texas Tech, -18). So... that leaves Oklahoma at TCU (+7.5) with pretty much all of the focus this week on the Plains. At the beginning of the year, it looked like this might be the biggest game on the calendar in the Big 12. But, the Horned Frogs already have losses to Texas and Texas Tech, and my calculations give then less than a 1% shot at winning the conference. But, they could play spoiler by effectively knocking the Sooners out of the race as well. While I doubt that they will pull the upset, they do benefit from being at home. Beware of Frog!
Pac 12
With the rest of the schedule looking a bit thin this week (outside of East Lansing, of course... again, why are we playing at noon?) the hottest action is on the Left Coast. Five of the six games have a spread which opened at 7 points or less. The sixth game is Colorado at Washington (-17), and honestly I would be surprised if that game isn't closer than that.
As for the other five games, Game Day is headed out to Pullman for the Oregon - Washington State (-2) game. The Ducks are hoping to keep their momentum after last week's big win over Washington, but my spreadsheet likes the Cougars big (-17). Meanwhile, Stanford will try to keep pace with one-loss teams, but to do so, they will need to escape Arizona State (+2) with a win. (Psst, it is harder than it looks.)
In the Pac 12 South, USC is currently sitting alone in first place, but there is a chance that their opponent this week, 2-2 Utah, is actually the best team in the Division. The Utes are a 6.5-point favorite at home in a game that will no doubt be a decisive one to decide the division crown. While the other two games (Arizona at UCLA [-5.5] and Cal at Oregon State [+7]) are unlikely to figure into the divisional races, they at least should be entertaining, and my spreadsheet even likes the Beavers to win in an upset.
Independent / Group of Five
Notre Dame is benefiting from a bye this week, which only leaves the Group of Five slate to discuss. All eye for now are on the American Athletic Conference and the East Division will see the first major contest involving the four current undefeated team (in conference play, that is) as Cincinnati travels to Temple (-3.5). Honestly, this line looks odd to me, as both my metrics and the FPI like the Bearcats to win. As for USF and UCF, there is little doubt they will will cruise past UCONN (+31) and East Carolina (+24) this week. Houston needs to travel to Navy (+10) this week, but Vegas suggest to expect smooth sailing once they get there.
In the Mountain West, the action is a bit less dramatic, as Fresno State (-16.5 at New Mexico), San Diego State (-27 vs. San Jose State), Utah State (-14.5 at Wyoming), and Boise State (-23.5 vs. Colorado State) are all double-digit favorites. However, I expect some intense MACtion in Toledo this weekend as Buffalo (+3) is planning to visit. Toledo is the favorite here, but my math still likes Buffalo by 8.6.
In C-USA, the very slim shot at a NY6 bid falls into the hand of two 1-loss teams, UAB and North Texas, and they happen to by facing off against each other this week. My math favors the home UAB Blazers, but the FPI like the Mean Green. Finally, App State looks to continue their winning ways against Louisiana. They haven't given up more than 9 points in any game since the near-miss in Happy Valley in Week 1. It's a very long shot, but I am not ruling the Mountaineers out of NY6 consideration just yet.
That is all I have for this week. On Saturday, MSU fans, get loud early. Let's do this. As always, Go Green, Beat the Skunkbears!
Just a few short days ago, things seemed a bit bleak. The loss to Northwestern sent Spartan Nation into a frustrated, dark tailspin. For many Spartan fans that grew up in the lean years of the 70s, 80s, and 90s, this is a natural response. I think it is a little bit like kids that grew up in the Depression. We greedily consume every tidbit of success that we have, and then even after years of living in a nice house with a steady income and money in the bank, there is still that voice in the back of our heads that says, "Don't be wasteful! Save your money! Disaster could be right around the corner!" Meanwhile, our Wolverine buddies are like the kid whose family fell on hard time a decade ago, are currently living in a trailer park, but are maxing out credit cards to try to maintain a certain appearance of wealth. "Don't worry, Sparty, Dad said he had a job interview yesterday that went really well, and in a few months we'll be living in a mansion." Yeah, Jimmy, sure you will.
But, here we are in mid-October of 2018, and MSU and UofM will once again be going toe-to-toe in one of the six key games that will decide the Big Ten East. Two of those games are already in the books. Penn State lost to both Ohio State and MSU at home. The Lions are likely out of the running, although they could certainly put a dent in UofM's season is just a few weeks. MSU's win last week may have just turned MSU's season around. It certainly has lifted the spirits of MSU fans and made this week's game much more relevant. But the final score of that Michigan-Wisconsin game sure looked nice in the funny papers, and now there is talk of a Playoff run in Ann Arbor. This is the first of three critical Big Ten East games involving the University of Michigan, and this is a chance for them to show that they too can get a win on the road against a contender. I mean, they haven't done something like that in over a decade, but... whatever.
Michigan opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and the math tells me MSU's chances at victory are at 32%. If that seems bad, MSU had far worse odds the last two years, and this year's spread is identical to the one in 2015. Anyone remember how that game ended? Honestly, the biggest factor in this game is obvious, and that is the health of MSU's wide receiver corp. If MSU had a health Cody White, Darrel Stewart, Speedy Nailor, and Felton Davis, I think MSU wins this game going away. Even the depression-era part of my brain would have been guardedly optimistic. But, in the current situation, the outlook is much less clear. But, when it comes down to it, I still think MSU will find a way to win this game, and the reason for me is quite clear:
MSU gets the benefit of the doubt. Michigan does not.
Sure, the Vegas spread says Michigan should win this game. I get that better than most. But, sometimes you have to look at the intangibles a little more closely to get the full picture. Just consider MSU's season so far. Before the Arizona State game, a lot of people warned that no Big Ten team had ever won in the desert, especially after dark. "Nah," I said, the math said MSU should win. But, they didn't. The intangible trend trumped the logical prediction. A few weeks later, MSU was a healthy favorite against Northwestern. A lot of people warned, "Pat Fitzgerald has MSU's number, this game is going to be tough. "Nah," I said, the math says MSU should win... but they didn't.
How is this weekend's game any different? Sure, Michigan fans and the talking heads will point to their apparently improving offence, and Don Brown, and Harbaugh, and recruiting, and winged helmets, and Slippery Rock, and all-time wins, and THE TEAM, and Bo, and the 1970s, and... you get the idea. The problem is, this is exactly the same, tired narrative that we heard ever. single. year. for. decades. But, the reality is, MSU has won 8 of the last 10, and covered the spread in 10 of those 10 years, this game is in East Lansing, and Mark Dantonio is still MSU's coach. Those two loses in the last 10 came during years when MSU had a 1st year, unproven QB. So, why, again, are the Wolverines so confident? Why is this year different? Harbaugh has shown exactly zero capability to beat his rivals. Zero. What's changed?
So, yeah, I can't help but be optimistic about this weekend. Sure, trend are trends until they are not. Is it possible that UofM will benefit from MSU's injuries, a coverage bust, or a bad decision from Lewerke? Sure. Is it possible that Michigan's defense will be so dominant that MSU's offense will be completely disrupted? Absolutely. Is is possible that Michigan's offense actually is better and will test MSU's D? Well.... I guess it's possible. But, you know what? (and my Depression-Era-Child brain is screaming as I type this...) I kind of doubt it.
National Overview
Here is my preview chart for Week 8. It's a fairly pedestrian looking chart where I pick only seven teams to cover (App St, Syracuse, Missouri, Army, Wazzou, Utah, and FIU) while only Bama is predicted not to cover at Tennessee. Interesting...
As for upsets, I like a total of 8 this week, including Oregon State, Central Michigan, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. The FPI likes only 4 (weak!). Based on my weekly simulation, we can expect to see 12.2 ± 2.9 upsets, with hopefully one in East Lansing.
Big Ten
As I look through the line-up in the Big Ten this weekend, I must admit, the picking is a bit sparse. Actually, I have no idea how the MSU-UofM (-6.5) game wound up at noon. Let's take a look at those remaining six oh-so compelling match-ups: Northwestern at Rutgers (+21.5. Yes, The Scarlet Knights are a 20+-point underdog to Northwestern AT HOME); Illinois at Wisconsin (-25.5, snore!); Maryland at Iowa (-13.5, maybe?); Penn State at Indiana (+13, can Penn State avoid a 3-game skid? Probably); Ohio State at Purdue (+12, this one could be closer than many think... but, really?); and finally Minnesota at Nebraska (-5... do not adjust your screen, and, no, that is not a typo, the Corn Huskers are actually favored.)
There are a few potentially interesting story lines here. Will Iowa continue to look pretty damn good? I think so. Will Ohio Sate or Penn State return to looking dominant? Maybe... Will Nebraska actually win a game? My calculations and the FPI both say, "I doubt it." I certainly am curious to know the answers to those questions. But, the Battle for Paul Bunyan is clearly the biggest game of the weekend, and probably still would have been even if MSU were to have lost to Penn State by 28. Also, getting to campus on time for a noon game with my current family obligations is not that easy, so basically, screw you schedule guy!
With this lack of other games to really talk about, I will spend a few more paragraph discussing the bigger impact of this week's game in East Lansing. If MSU wins, the Spartans move ahead of Michigan in the queue with a shot to knock off Ohio State and win the East. That is a big deal, of course, as any shot at a Championship is great. However, considering that MSU already has a conference loss, even if the Spartans beats Michigan, MSU needs to win out to make sure the (Once Every) Ten Year War is truly meaningless again this year, as the Good Lord intended it to be. While I still like MSU's odds to find a way to win this weekend, I am not as confident that this beat-up team can make it through the next 5 weeks without tripping up again. MSU could even beat OSU, but if they drop another random game (@ Maryland, vs. Purdue, @ Nebrsaka?) they once again would lose control of their destiny. By contrast, Michigan could still run the table and make it to Indy with a loss this weekend. In all likelihood, the Michigan-Ohio State game is still going to decide the conference champ. Gross.
A loss by MSU would likely send Spartan Nation back into a tailspin of sorts. Major doubt about the rest of the season would creep in. A Bowl game still seems likely now, but not guaranteed. A loss to Michigan would mean 8-4 starts to look like the best-case scenario. That looks a whole lot better that some predictions after last weekend, but the benefit and momentum gained after last weeks thrilling win would be mostly lost.
So, from MSU's point of view, avoiding the loss is more important than getting the win, if that makes sense. But, the same can be said for the Wolverines. Losing to MSU for the 9th time in 11 tries would deal the Wolverines a crushing blow to their over-confident, smug psyches. Doubt just might start to creep into their little brains. For one, it would completely end all of the premature Playoff chatter from the talking heads. That, coupled with another loss to the Buckeyes could literally push the program to a tipping point, which could, quite honestly, break it. It is hard to imagine now, with all the bravado coming out of Ann Arbor, but if Harbaugh were to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place AGAIN, without a win over a rival AGAIN, things could get real ugly real quick. Some say Jimmy is untouchable. I have personally heard the whispers. I don't think that he is. They would be in full freak-out mode. It would be beautiful. Harbaugh might even go full-on John L Smith (SMILE!) I have been saving a special bag of popcorn in my pantry for just such as occasion. It flavored with the salt from Wolverine tears...
But, I digress. In summary, MSU winning this weekend would be pretty awesome on multiple fronts. So, let's just go ahead and do that, shall we?
SEC
After the exciting, game-changing action in the SEC last week, I was dying to see what the conference had in store for us this week. Unfortunately, it is doubtful that it will be interesting. In the East, both Florida and Georgia have byes, while Kentucky (-11.5) will play host to Vanderbilt. That game might have been interesting if it were being played in Nashville, but I suspect UK will benefit from the getting the game at home. Out West, Texas A&M is on a bye. Alabama is in action where they must travel to Knoxville to face Tennessee, who is red hot after their first one-game SEC win streak since 2016. I doubt the Vols will Bama much trouble. That leaves LSU, who is legitimately hot after their big win over UGA last weekend. The Tigers (-6.5) will face Mississippi Sate this week, which could be tricky, but I suspect LSU will also benefit from the game being at home.
ACC
At first glance, I had some doubt that there would be much to talk about in the ACC this week either. Six of the 14 teams are on a bye, leaving a total of only 4 conference games. Two of those games essentially involve teams that are likely already out of the race: Wake Forest at Florida State (-11) and UNC at Syracuse (-12). But, the other two games really caught my interest. On the Coastal side, Virginia travel to Duke (-8). Now, please do not adjust your screen. It is still October and this is not Tony Bennett vs. Coach K. Yet, both of these teams are still vying for position in the very volatile Coastal Division. The loser of this game likely will drop out of contention. Conventional wisdom suggests that the winner is still unlikely to contend, but have you seen the competition? Miami, Virginia Tech, and Pitt all also have one loss, and all three teams have had more than one stinker of a game on their resume. I still kinda think Duke is going to win this division...
But, the game that might be bigger than you realize is the marquee match-up in the Atlantic Division of NC State at Clemson (-17). The Wolfpack have been flying a bit under the radar this year, but they one of only five undefeated teams left in the Power 5. They come in as pretty big underdogs, but if they can somehow pull off the upset, it will send shock waves through the conference and the nation. The rest of NC State's schedule is very manageable. Based on my projections, the only game left that would be ever a minor test would be next week's game at Syracuse. Win that one, and the Pack could easily run their record to 11-0 and win the division. Moreover, even if they were to drop a game, they would hold the tiebreaker over both Clemson and even BC (the only other team in the division with less than 2 losses). Clemson's odds to win the division would approach zero.
Ironically, this might not wind up hurting the Tigers so much. If Clemson finishes at 11-1, there is a good chance that they still make the playoffs. But, what happens if NC State wins the ACC Championship Game and finishes at 12-0? They would also have to make the Playoffs, right? What if Notre Dame wins out? All of a sudden the Playoffs slots would be at a real premium. The SEC Champ would be a virtual lock as well. So, the Big 12 Champ, Big Ten Champ, and Clemson would all potentially be fighting for one spot. Either that, or you have to turn down a Power 5 team that went undefeated. Honestly, it would be a mess. If the committee is smart, they will all be saying a little prayer for Clemson this week. (Sorry, NC State.)
Big 12
Hey, where did the Big 12 go? With 6 out of 10 teams on a bye week, that leaves only two games... and one of them involves Kansas (at Texas Tech, -18). So... that leaves Oklahoma at TCU (+7.5) with pretty much all of the focus this week on the Plains. At the beginning of the year, it looked like this might be the biggest game on the calendar in the Big 12. But, the Horned Frogs already have losses to Texas and Texas Tech, and my calculations give then less than a 1% shot at winning the conference. But, they could play spoiler by effectively knocking the Sooners out of the race as well. While I doubt that they will pull the upset, they do benefit from being at home. Beware of Frog!
Pac 12
With the rest of the schedule looking a bit thin this week (outside of East Lansing, of course... again, why are we playing at noon?) the hottest action is on the Left Coast. Five of the six games have a spread which opened at 7 points or less. The sixth game is Colorado at Washington (-17), and honestly I would be surprised if that game isn't closer than that.
As for the other five games, Game Day is headed out to Pullman for the Oregon - Washington State (-2) game. The Ducks are hoping to keep their momentum after last week's big win over Washington, but my spreadsheet likes the Cougars big (-17). Meanwhile, Stanford will try to keep pace with one-loss teams, but to do so, they will need to escape Arizona State (+2) with a win. (Psst, it is harder than it looks.)
In the Pac 12 South, USC is currently sitting alone in first place, but there is a chance that their opponent this week, 2-2 Utah, is actually the best team in the Division. The Utes are a 6.5-point favorite at home in a game that will no doubt be a decisive one to decide the division crown. While the other two games (Arizona at UCLA [-5.5] and Cal at Oregon State [+7]) are unlikely to figure into the divisional races, they at least should be entertaining, and my spreadsheet even likes the Beavers to win in an upset.
Independent / Group of Five
Notre Dame is benefiting from a bye this week, which only leaves the Group of Five slate to discuss. All eye for now are on the American Athletic Conference and the East Division will see the first major contest involving the four current undefeated team (in conference play, that is) as Cincinnati travels to Temple (-3.5). Honestly, this line looks odd to me, as both my metrics and the FPI like the Bearcats to win. As for USF and UCF, there is little doubt they will will cruise past UCONN (+31) and East Carolina (+24) this week. Houston needs to travel to Navy (+10) this week, but Vegas suggest to expect smooth sailing once they get there.
In the Mountain West, the action is a bit less dramatic, as Fresno State (-16.5 at New Mexico), San Diego State (-27 vs. San Jose State), Utah State (-14.5 at Wyoming), and Boise State (-23.5 vs. Colorado State) are all double-digit favorites. However, I expect some intense MACtion in Toledo this weekend as Buffalo (+3) is planning to visit. Toledo is the favorite here, but my math still likes Buffalo by 8.6.
In C-USA, the very slim shot at a NY6 bid falls into the hand of two 1-loss teams, UAB and North Texas, and they happen to by facing off against each other this week. My math favors the home UAB Blazers, but the FPI like the Mean Green. Finally, App State looks to continue their winning ways against Louisiana. They haven't given up more than 9 points in any game since the near-miss in Happy Valley in Week 1. It's a very long shot, but I am not ruling the Mountaineers out of NY6 consideration just yet.
That is all I have for this week. On Saturday, MSU fans, get loud early. Let's do this. As always, Go Green, Beat the Skunkbears!
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