MSU-Michigan Rivalry, By the Numbers

It's rivalry week folks!  As we prepare for the big game this weekend, I thought that it might be fun to take a look back at the history of the rivalry.  MSU has won 8 of the last 10 in the series and is looking to push that number to 9 this weekend.  But, as every Michigan fan will tell you, that is only because in some of those years MSU just got lucky, it rained, or Michigan was bad, so it doesn't really count.  But, what do the numbers actually say?

Well, let's start with the overall record for each team in the rivalry, and let's tabulate that as a function of the total number of wins each team in a given year, going back to the 19th century and in the modern era (since MSU joined the Big Ten in 1950):

So, overall, Michigan holds a 69-36 lead (the first line in the table, signifying the record when each team has equal to or greater than 0 wins.)  However, since 1950, Michigan holds only a narrow 36-30 advantage.  

Furthermore, the story gets much more interesting if we look at the rivalry record as a function of each's teams overall win total.  In years when MSU wins at least 6 games, MSU has a 31-22 record against UofM all time and a 26-15 record since 1950.  As MSU's win total increases, so does MSU's record against the Wolverines.  In years where MSU wins 7 or more games, the winning percentage goes up to 65% overall and 68% since 1950.

But, the real eye-opening stats is what happens when MSU wins 8 games or more.  All time, MSU is 20-3 (87%) against the Wolverines when they win 8 games or more in a season. When MSU wins 9 games or more, the record goes to 14-1 (93%).

But, one could argue that these stats are a bit misleading because teams have only recently been playing 11, 12, or 13-games seasons.  That's true, so I thought that a more fair way to compare the data would be to look at the winning percentage instead of just total wins.  That table is shown here:

Once again, in the modern era MSU has a winning record (27-16) against the Wolverines in years when MSU is over 500.  Furthermore, when MSU wins more than 2/3 of its games (65% to be exact) MSU is an astounding 21-2 (91%) against the Wolverines.  Those two loses were in 1955, when the Wolverines gave Duffy Daugherty his only loss on the year, and in 1989 when Perles went 8-4 overall.  That's it.

But, to be fair, the tables also show that Michigan has a winning record against MSU in the years when they have a lot of wins or a high winning percentage.  But, what about years when both teams are good?  For that, I leave you with this table:

A few things stick out in this table.  First, MSU and UofM are simply not good at the same time very often.  They have only both won 8 games or more in the same year 9 time in history, even back to 1890.  If we set the bar at the point where both teams win at least 5, 6, or 7 games, MSU still has a slight edge.  However, if the bar is raised to 8 wins, MSU dominates the rivalry at 7-2.  If the bar is raised further to at least 9 wins, MSU is undefeated. 

So, when you UofM buddy this week tries to tell you that MSU never beats good Michigan teams, educate the poor soul.  Because the truth is exactly the opposite, Michigan rarely, if ever, beats a good MSU team.  So is MSU actually good this year? Well, I think we will all find out on Saturday.

Enjoy your week and as always, Go State, Beat the Shunkbears!