This week's game was a little bit tough. I must admit that I felt bad for the Maryland players and the Maryland community for what they have been through this week and this year. It all sucks, and this week was essentially the peak of the circus. After a fashion, the University absolutely made the right decision to fire former University of Michigan Defensive Coordinator and all-around piece of garbage DJ Durkin. But, the whole situation was just painful. I would rather just not been involved, honestly.
Leading up to the game, I thought that there was about a 10% chance that the Maryland team would be galvanized, would come out with their hair on fire, and MSU would get beat, essentially as a victim of awful timing. But, the rational part of my brain looked at the situation and the match-up and concluded that there was a 90% chance that Maryland's run-based offense would get stifled by MSU's defense, Maryland's fragile psyche would crack, and MSU would win by 20+ points (just like every other team with a good defense has who has faced the Terrapins this year).
Essentially, I thought that is was quite likely that the Terrapins would turtle, and that's exactly what happened. There is simply not much more to say. Poor turtles...
MSU now stands at 6-3, with a bowl game in hand. A month ago, that would have seemed extremely unlikely. MSU is 3-1 since the debacle with Northwestern and we were tied in the one loss deep into the 3rd quarter. The speaks to the resiliency of the players and true skill of the coaching staff to lead the team successfully through adversity. The have tough shells, but they didn't turtle. Not a lot of programs would have been able to weather the storm that has hit MSU this year. They are to be commended.
So, with three games to go, MSU now looks to pad their resume with a few more wins. MSU is clearly starting to regain some health, and with the way the defense is playing, I don't see a game left on the schedule that we can't win. After the events of the past weekend, my calculations now pin MSU's expected value of wins at 8.2, with a 35% chance to run the table and an 85% chance to win at least 8 games. This is New Years Day Bowl territory. Considering the challenges this year, especially on the offense, I think that would be huge victory and a huge accomplishment.
National Overview
Here's my results chart for Week 10. Based on this analysis UAB, Ohio, Cincy, and Michigan over-achieved this week. Or, maybe Penn State just really under-achieved. Yeah, maybe that. On the flip side, OSU and Wisconsin were notably under-whelming. Shocking, right? It was an odd week for my spreadsheet, as it went 6-1 (86%) for covers (58-54 for the year), but 27-34 (44%) overall ATS, bringing the year-to-date tally to 250-283 (47%). The FPI went 31-30 (51%) ATS, bringing its total to 272-259 (51%).
Here's the upset table for Week 10. I count 14 total upsets, which is actually a bit short of the 16.7 that I predicted. My algorithm went 3-6 (33%) for upset picks (38-47, 45% year-to-date) while the FPI went 0-2 (26-20, 56% year-to-date). The big upset of the week was SMU's (+13) take-down of Houston, which does add a bit of intrigue to the Group of Five race. More on that later.
I almost feel sorry for Clemson at this point. They honestly look a bit bored. Can you blame them? According to my power rankings, no other team in the ACC is in the Top 30 of the country, and they have won their last 4 games by an average score of 60-9. Ouch. They have not yet clinched their division, however, as Boston College could still in theory beat Clemson and run the table. That will be decided next weekend, and Clemson might spot them a few touchdowns just so that they can feel alive again.
But the story in completely the opposite on the Coastal side of the conference. The story goes like this: new week, new favorite to win the division. This week's new candidate: the Pitt Panthers! Coach Narduzzi was able to upset Virginia (and possibly save his job) this week, leaving the Panthers with a full game lead in the standings at 4-1. My math now gives Pitt a 66% chance to win the division, with the two Virginia schools still hanging around at about 15%. The road could still get bumpy, however as the Panthers still must face VA Tech and travel to Miami, while the two Virginia schools will face off at the end of the month.
As for bowl eligibility, six teams have punched their ticket (Clemson, BC, Syracuse, NC State, Duke, and Virginia), with six other teams currently at 4 or 5 wins and two teams eliminated (UNC and Louisville, who are now looking forward to basketball season... at least UNC is...) My spreadsheet projects Pitt, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech will also reach that 6-win mark and get to travel someplace nice for the holidays... like Annapolis or Detroit!
Big 12
I will say this about the Big 12: at least their top teams know how to keep thing interesting. Both Oklahoma and West Virginia were on the road this week facing a tough test. Both teams were on the ropes at some point, but both teams escaped town with the "W." As a result, both teams seem to be pulling a bit away from the pack. The battle for first place will most likely be settled when the two teams meet on the last weekend of the year in Morgantown.
However, the battle for 2nd place, which also gets a shot to win the Big 12 Championship, is a bit more complex. In the preseason, I frankly got a little lazy with the math and did not bother to try to calculate actual probabilities for teams to finish second. It is actually a pretty big pain. So, the table below does not paint an accurate picture of the real situation. Now that we are closer to the finish line, I can see some interesting scenarios emerging.
Oklahoma and WVU both have one loss in conference play, and have yet to meet. Similarly, Texas and Iowa State are both one game back at 4-2, and have yet to meet. Texas has a win against Oklahoma, while Iowa State has a win over West Virginia. So, the winner of the Texas-Iowa State game (to be played in Austin and which I now project as a toss-up) will have a chance to win the 2nd place slot and berth into the Big 12 Championship if they can win the other 2 games, and if the Oklahoma-West Virginia games breaks the right way. My spreadsheet currently favors West Virginia to beat Oklahoma and does not project Texas to run the table (it actually thinks the Longhorns will drop 2 of their final 3). However, it is not a stretch to project Oklahoma to beat WVU and Iowa State to beat Texas and win their other two games. This would set up an Oklahoma - Iowa State Big 12 Final. Similarly, a WVU-Texas Big 12 Title game could certainly happen.
Either way, the Big 12 Champ has a pretty small chance to make the playoffs, as both Michigan and Georgia stand in their way. I have probabilities for that as well, but I no longer think they are that reliable based on the assumptions that I used to make the initial calculation in August. As for bowl eligibility, only Oklahoma, WVU, and Texas are officially in. Iowa State, Texas Tech, and one of Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor is likely to join them, while the Kansas schools need to start making other plans for winter. Weeping quietly to themselves in the corner seems like a plan.
Pac 12
The Pac 12 might be down this year. Actually, that is a bit of an understatement, akin to saying, "turtles are a bit slow." But, at least it has been an entertaining race. In the North this week Washington survived Stanford, who is now eliminated, leaving essentially only the Apple Cup between Washington and Wazzou to decide the Division. With the game in Cougartown this year, my spreadsheet gives Washington State a slight edge (53%).
Down South, it's just a flat out party of mediocrity right now. Just when it looked like Utah might pull away from the pack, they got lost in the desert last week, losing to the Sun Devils 38-20. Now, things are a bit messy again, as every single team in the division has either 3 or 4 conference losses. My math still likes the Utes (54%), with ASU at 36% and USC still hanging around at 9%. This is essentially a reflection of my spreadsheet projected odds that each team will run the table, and Utah's odds do seem to be the best. But, with all 6 teams so closely bunched, almost anything could happen.
As for bowl eligibility, Washington State, Washington, Oregon, and Utah are all at or over 6 wins, while six other teams currently sit at 5. UCLA and Oregon State are already eliminated. My math suggests Stanford, ASU, USC, and Colorado will also join the holiday bowl party.
Independents / Group of Five
The Fighting Irish were able to keep their unbeaten streak alive this week by putting down the Wildcats 31-21. With now only 3 games remaining, the Playoffs are within reach. If Notre Dame can stay undefeated, the 3-seed in the playoffs seems to be their floor. There is some chatter (mostly from Fantasy Land, a municipality in Washtenaw County) that Michigan might be able to jump the Irish, but in addition to the obvious head-to-head result, the Irish had a much easier time beating Northwestern in Evanston than Michigan did. Now, I suppose if Michigan were to face the Wildcats in the Big Ten Championship game and win 60-0, that might make a difference, but at this point I see no way Michigan should jump the Irish. If Georgia upsets Bama in the SEC Title game, this could come into play in a big way.
As for the Group of Five, the American Athletic Conference was where the action was this week. First, UCF defeated Temple in the East to stay undefeated overall and in the driver's seat for the NY6 bid. In addition, potential East contender South Florida got upset in blow-out fashion by Tulane, which basically just leaves Cincinnati as a potential spoiler. The Bearcats are 8-1 and no joke, but they do need to travel to Orlando to meet UCF in a few weeks. Overall, my spreadsheet has finally come around to the idea that UCF is the East favorite (55%), with Cincy (31%) not far behind.
The other big news in the AAC was SMU's upset win over Houston, which most likely knocks the Cougars both out of the lead for the West (as I have SMU now as the favorite 43% to 31%) but with 2 losses, they are likely out of the NY6 sweepstakes even if they were to come back, win the West and then the AAC Title game.
This subtle shift in the AAC race has left the door open for one of the champs of the other G5 conferences. The Mountain West is the next likely candidate, and Utah State and Fresno State continued with their winning ways this week. They seem to be on a collision course for the Championship Game. However, I will warn that the always dangerous Boise State remains on both team's schedule in November. Incidentally, my power rankings actually have Frenso State as the best team in the G5 (followed by Cincinnati and then UAB).
The Sunbelt seems to be out of play for the NY6 slot, and I noticed a math glitch in my spreadsheet projecting the conference that I don't have time to fix right now. So, you guys are on ignore right now (Sorry.)
and finally...
If the Season Ended Today... That Would Be Weird.
The time is finally upon us to make some bowl predictions. Based on my projections above, here is how I see the conference championship games playing out.
ACC: Clemson over Pitt
Big Ten: Michigan over Northwestern
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Big 12: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Pac 12: Utah over Washington State
In other relevant results:
I have Notre Dame running the table, but I also have Cincinnati upsetting UCF and winning the AAC (although the tie-breaker could get wonky if Temple is also 7-1), and I have Fresno State beating Utah State in the Mountain West Championship.
So, I have the NY6 Bowls breaking down like this:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Sacrificial Wolverine
Orange Bow: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
No surprised here, but I will go off script for the rest.
Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia
Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Washington State vs. Fresno State
There are a couple of judgment calls here. First, if Michigan does make the playoffs, the Rose Bowl will be free to pick a replacement from the Big Ten. Some have argued that if MSU beats OSU and runs the table, the Spartans would have a shot. While I agree that is true, my gut says that the Rose Bowl would even pick up a 9-3 Buckeye squad with 2 loses in their final 3 games simply because they haven't been their recently (2010) or in fact much at all in the past 40 years. I think the Buckeyes would need to drop 3 in a row (including at Maryland) to get passed over.
The other main judgement call is putting Georgia in the Sugar Bowl instead of LSU. In effect, I mostly want to avoid the Georgia-Oklahoma rematch from the Rose Bowl Semifinal last year. If West Virginia does, in fact, win the Big 12, they are obligated to play in the Sugar Bowl. However, the Committee can rearrange the SEC teams. I would rather place LSU and Oklahoma there, as it make a lot more geographic sense (as does Georgia vs. West Virginia in the Peach Bowl). Either way, I hope the committee is smart enough to avoid the rematch.
Finally, I really like the west coast match-up of Wazzou vs. Fresno State in Tempe. I hope that the Pac 12 runner up winds up there with the Mountain West champ. I just think that would be fun.
As for the rest of the Big Ten, it seems likely that we will see a bunching of teams with 8 or 9 losses including Penn State, MSU, Iowa, and Ohio State. I already stated that I think the Buckeyes will find their way to Pasadena. As for the other three teams, we can play a little process of elimination game.
Based on the soft "no repeat" rules for the bowls that the Big Ten contracts to, Iowa is not likely to play in either the Outback Bowl (#3) or the TaxSlayer (Gator) Bowl (#5). So, I think it is very likely that the Hawkeyes will land in the Holiday (#4) Bowl.
So, that basically leaves MSU and Penn State to fight over the Citrus Bowl (#2) and the Outback Bowl (#3). If MSU beats Ohio State and Penn State loses to Wisconsin this week, I suspect MSU will get the Citrus Bowl (barring a collapse at Lincoln). If only one or if neither of those things happens, I suspect Penn State will get the nod for the Citrus Bowl. In a slightly lower tier, I would expect Purdue, Wisconsin, and Northwestern to get slotted into the Gator Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, and San Francisco Bowl. Basically, it is a safe bet that Northwestern will get hosed again.
As for MSU's possible opponent, the most likely candidate to me is either Kentucky or Florida. The Wildcats have a very good shot at 10 wins and beat the Gators head-to-head, so the Citrus Bowl seems most likely to me. The Gators are likely to finish 9-3 and my best guess is that puts them into the Outback Bowl. Gun to my head, MSU vs. Florida in Tampa is my pick.
If MSU were to drop 2 of their last 3 to finish at 7-5, I think we would slide to the TaxSlayer / Gator Bowl. That is how I see it.
Well, that is it for this week. My Week 11 preview will be up in a few days. Until then, Go State, Beat the Bucknuts!
Leading up to the game, I thought that there was about a 10% chance that the Maryland team would be galvanized, would come out with their hair on fire, and MSU would get beat, essentially as a victim of awful timing. But, the rational part of my brain looked at the situation and the match-up and concluded that there was a 90% chance that Maryland's run-based offense would get stifled by MSU's defense, Maryland's fragile psyche would crack, and MSU would win by 20+ points (just like every other team with a good defense has who has faced the Terrapins this year).
Essentially, I thought that is was quite likely that the Terrapins would turtle, and that's exactly what happened. There is simply not much more to say. Poor turtles...
MSU now stands at 6-3, with a bowl game in hand. A month ago, that would have seemed extremely unlikely. MSU is 3-1 since the debacle with Northwestern and we were tied in the one loss deep into the 3rd quarter. The speaks to the resiliency of the players and true skill of the coaching staff to lead the team successfully through adversity. The have tough shells, but they didn't turtle. Not a lot of programs would have been able to weather the storm that has hit MSU this year. They are to be commended.
So, with three games to go, MSU now looks to pad their resume with a few more wins. MSU is clearly starting to regain some health, and with the way the defense is playing, I don't see a game left on the schedule that we can't win. After the events of the past weekend, my calculations now pin MSU's expected value of wins at 8.2, with a 35% chance to run the table and an 85% chance to win at least 8 games. This is New Years Day Bowl territory. Considering the challenges this year, especially on the offense, I think that would be huge victory and a huge accomplishment.
National Overview
Here's my results chart for Week 10. Based on this analysis UAB, Ohio, Cincy, and Michigan over-achieved this week. Or, maybe Penn State just really under-achieved. Yeah, maybe that. On the flip side, OSU and Wisconsin were notably under-whelming. Shocking, right? It was an odd week for my spreadsheet, as it went 6-1 (86%) for covers (58-54 for the year), but 27-34 (44%) overall ATS, bringing the year-to-date tally to 250-283 (47%). The FPI went 31-30 (51%) ATS, bringing its total to 272-259 (51%).
Here's the upset table for Week 10. I count 14 total upsets, which is actually a bit short of the 16.7 that I predicted. My algorithm went 3-6 (33%) for upset picks (38-47, 45% year-to-date) while the FPI went 0-2 (26-20, 56% year-to-date). The big upset of the week was SMU's (+13) take-down of Houston, which does add a bit of intrigue to the Group of Five race. More on that later.
Big Ten
Penn State, you had one job. You were supposed to at least attempt to stage an intervention with Older Brother. Instead, you pretty much rolled into town, sat him down for five minutes, stumbled through a speech that you clearly prepared on a McDonald's napkin you got at the drive-thru window, and the said, "Screw it. LET"S DO SHOTS!!!!" You are pathetic losers, Penn State, and if I have anything to say about it, you will not be invited for family dinner anytime soon. Now, all that stands between us and disaster is Thanksgiving at Cousin Brutus's house, and Brutus is not exactly having a great fall either. I just don't know if he has it in him.
In more direct terms: Michigan won and Ohio State doesn't look any better. Alas the "revenge tour" continues. (Also known as the "cycling up once a decade to beat teams that passed our program a years ago" tour.) I now project Michigan's odds to win the East to be ~90%. Barf. MSU is still mathematically in the race, but would need to run the table and have Michigan lose 2 of its final 3 games, most likely Indiana and Ohio State. I am not holding my breath.
Out West, the game of the week was Purdue's exciting defeat of Iowa, 38-36 on a late FG. As a result, Iowa's chances to win the West are akin to that of a turtle turned on its shell and my calculations say it is effectively a 2-team race between Northwestern (69%) and Purdue (26%). Northwestern really just needs to win 2 of its next 3 games (one of which is against Illinois) to clinch the Division, despite the fact that they lost to Notre Dame this week by 10 and are 0-3 in non-conference play. It is almost mid-November and the Wildcats are somehow teetering between the Big Ten Championship Game and bowl eligibility at the same time. These are strange times that we are living in.
Speaking of bowl eligibility, the Big Ten has six teams that have reached the 6-win mark: Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, MSU, Penn State, and Wisconsin. Rutgers and Nebraska are both eliminated, leaving 6 teams sitting currently at 4 or 5 wins total. Purdue and Northwestern seems like safe bets to also go bowling. The other four teams I project to be home for the holidays, unless they are granted a charity bowl based on a 5-7 record and good behavior.
SEC
The situation in the SEC is now dead simple. Alabama won the West by beating LSU and Georgia won the East by beating Kentucky. The winner of the SEC Championship game will certainly go to the Playoffs, while the loser might also go to the Playoffs if their mascot is an elephant and they are coached by Uncle Nick Saban. I suppose is it possible that either or both teams could sleepwalk through one of their remaining games and take a bad "L". But, honestly that still might not impact the Playoff picture much, if at all. It seems insane that the SEC Champ would not make the Playoffs.
Other than that, the rest of the conference is simply playing for bowl positioning and even that is not going to be that interesting going forward. Seven teams are currently eligible (Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, and Mississippi State). South Carolina, Missouri, and Texas A&M are all one win away and extremely likely to get there. Arkansas is already eliminated, and I think Ole Miss is on probation. So, the only drama left is if Tennessee and Vanderbilt (both at 4 wins) can win 2 of their last 3, including.... a game against each other. It will be like two turtles in a cage match. Who's excited?!?!?
ACC
I almost feel sorry for Clemson at this point. They honestly look a bit bored. Can you blame them? According to my power rankings, no other team in the ACC is in the Top 30 of the country, and they have won their last 4 games by an average score of 60-9. Ouch. They have not yet clinched their division, however, as Boston College could still in theory beat Clemson and run the table. That will be decided next weekend, and Clemson might spot them a few touchdowns just so that they can feel alive again.
But the story in completely the opposite on the Coastal side of the conference. The story goes like this: new week, new favorite to win the division. This week's new candidate: the Pitt Panthers! Coach Narduzzi was able to upset Virginia (and possibly save his job) this week, leaving the Panthers with a full game lead in the standings at 4-1. My math now gives Pitt a 66% chance to win the division, with the two Virginia schools still hanging around at about 15%. The road could still get bumpy, however as the Panthers still must face VA Tech and travel to Miami, while the two Virginia schools will face off at the end of the month.
As for bowl eligibility, six teams have punched their ticket (Clemson, BC, Syracuse, NC State, Duke, and Virginia), with six other teams currently at 4 or 5 wins and two teams eliminated (UNC and Louisville, who are now looking forward to basketball season... at least UNC is...) My spreadsheet projects Pitt, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech will also reach that 6-win mark and get to travel someplace nice for the holidays... like Annapolis or Detroit!
Big 12
I will say this about the Big 12: at least their top teams know how to keep thing interesting. Both Oklahoma and West Virginia were on the road this week facing a tough test. Both teams were on the ropes at some point, but both teams escaped town with the "W." As a result, both teams seem to be pulling a bit away from the pack. The battle for first place will most likely be settled when the two teams meet on the last weekend of the year in Morgantown.
However, the battle for 2nd place, which also gets a shot to win the Big 12 Championship, is a bit more complex. In the preseason, I frankly got a little lazy with the math and did not bother to try to calculate actual probabilities for teams to finish second. It is actually a pretty big pain. So, the table below does not paint an accurate picture of the real situation. Now that we are closer to the finish line, I can see some interesting scenarios emerging.
Oklahoma and WVU both have one loss in conference play, and have yet to meet. Similarly, Texas and Iowa State are both one game back at 4-2, and have yet to meet. Texas has a win against Oklahoma, while Iowa State has a win over West Virginia. So, the winner of the Texas-Iowa State game (to be played in Austin and which I now project as a toss-up) will have a chance to win the 2nd place slot and berth into the Big 12 Championship if they can win the other 2 games, and if the Oklahoma-West Virginia games breaks the right way. My spreadsheet currently favors West Virginia to beat Oklahoma and does not project Texas to run the table (it actually thinks the Longhorns will drop 2 of their final 3). However, it is not a stretch to project Oklahoma to beat WVU and Iowa State to beat Texas and win their other two games. This would set up an Oklahoma - Iowa State Big 12 Final. Similarly, a WVU-Texas Big 12 Title game could certainly happen.
Either way, the Big 12 Champ has a pretty small chance to make the playoffs, as both Michigan and Georgia stand in their way. I have probabilities for that as well, but I no longer think they are that reliable based on the assumptions that I used to make the initial calculation in August. As for bowl eligibility, only Oklahoma, WVU, and Texas are officially in. Iowa State, Texas Tech, and one of Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor is likely to join them, while the Kansas schools need to start making other plans for winter. Weeping quietly to themselves in the corner seems like a plan.
Pac 12
The Pac 12 might be down this year. Actually, that is a bit of an understatement, akin to saying, "turtles are a bit slow." But, at least it has been an entertaining race. In the North this week Washington survived Stanford, who is now eliminated, leaving essentially only the Apple Cup between Washington and Wazzou to decide the Division. With the game in Cougartown this year, my spreadsheet gives Washington State a slight edge (53%).
Down South, it's just a flat out party of mediocrity right now. Just when it looked like Utah might pull away from the pack, they got lost in the desert last week, losing to the Sun Devils 38-20. Now, things are a bit messy again, as every single team in the division has either 3 or 4 conference losses. My math still likes the Utes (54%), with ASU at 36% and USC still hanging around at 9%. This is essentially a reflection of my spreadsheet projected odds that each team will run the table, and Utah's odds do seem to be the best. But, with all 6 teams so closely bunched, almost anything could happen.
As for bowl eligibility, Washington State, Washington, Oregon, and Utah are all at or over 6 wins, while six other teams currently sit at 5. UCLA and Oregon State are already eliminated. My math suggests Stanford, ASU, USC, and Colorado will also join the holiday bowl party.
Independents / Group of Five
The Fighting Irish were able to keep their unbeaten streak alive this week by putting down the Wildcats 31-21. With now only 3 games remaining, the Playoffs are within reach. If Notre Dame can stay undefeated, the 3-seed in the playoffs seems to be their floor. There is some chatter (mostly from Fantasy Land, a municipality in Washtenaw County) that Michigan might be able to jump the Irish, but in addition to the obvious head-to-head result, the Irish had a much easier time beating Northwestern in Evanston than Michigan did. Now, I suppose if Michigan were to face the Wildcats in the Big Ten Championship game and win 60-0, that might make a difference, but at this point I see no way Michigan should jump the Irish. If Georgia upsets Bama in the SEC Title game, this could come into play in a big way.
As for the Group of Five, the American Athletic Conference was where the action was this week. First, UCF defeated Temple in the East to stay undefeated overall and in the driver's seat for the NY6 bid. In addition, potential East contender South Florida got upset in blow-out fashion by Tulane, which basically just leaves Cincinnati as a potential spoiler. The Bearcats are 8-1 and no joke, but they do need to travel to Orlando to meet UCF in a few weeks. Overall, my spreadsheet has finally come around to the idea that UCF is the East favorite (55%), with Cincy (31%) not far behind.
The other big news in the AAC was SMU's upset win over Houston, which most likely knocks the Cougars both out of the lead for the West (as I have SMU now as the favorite 43% to 31%) but with 2 losses, they are likely out of the NY6 sweepstakes even if they were to come back, win the West and then the AAC Title game.
This subtle shift in the AAC race has left the door open for one of the champs of the other G5 conferences. The Mountain West is the next likely candidate, and Utah State and Fresno State continued with their winning ways this week. They seem to be on a collision course for the Championship Game. However, I will warn that the always dangerous Boise State remains on both team's schedule in November. Incidentally, my power rankings actually have Frenso State as the best team in the G5 (followed by Cincinnati and then UAB).
Other than that, Buffalo remains the last hope for the MAC and UAB is the last hope for C-USA. Both teams just keep winning, and both teams have a major test coming. Buffalo needs to travel to Ohio in 2 weeks, while UAB gets a shot at Texas A&M. If the Blazers were to upset the Aggies, that would certainly spice up the race for the NY6 slot.
and finally...
If the Season Ended Today... That Would Be Weird.
The time is finally upon us to make some bowl predictions. Based on my projections above, here is how I see the conference championship games playing out.
ACC: Clemson over Pitt
Big Ten: Michigan over Northwestern
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Big 12: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Pac 12: Utah over Washington State
In other relevant results:
I have Notre Dame running the table, but I also have Cincinnati upsetting UCF and winning the AAC (although the tie-breaker could get wonky if Temple is also 7-1), and I have Fresno State beating Utah State in the Mountain West Championship.
So, I have the NY6 Bowls breaking down like this:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Sacrificial Wolverine
Orange Bow: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
No surprised here, but I will go off script for the rest.
Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia
Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Washington State vs. Fresno State
There are a couple of judgment calls here. First, if Michigan does make the playoffs, the Rose Bowl will be free to pick a replacement from the Big Ten. Some have argued that if MSU beats OSU and runs the table, the Spartans would have a shot. While I agree that is true, my gut says that the Rose Bowl would even pick up a 9-3 Buckeye squad with 2 loses in their final 3 games simply because they haven't been their recently (2010) or in fact much at all in the past 40 years. I think the Buckeyes would need to drop 3 in a row (including at Maryland) to get passed over.
The other main judgement call is putting Georgia in the Sugar Bowl instead of LSU. In effect, I mostly want to avoid the Georgia-Oklahoma rematch from the Rose Bowl Semifinal last year. If West Virginia does, in fact, win the Big 12, they are obligated to play in the Sugar Bowl. However, the Committee can rearrange the SEC teams. I would rather place LSU and Oklahoma there, as it make a lot more geographic sense (as does Georgia vs. West Virginia in the Peach Bowl). Either way, I hope the committee is smart enough to avoid the rematch.
Finally, I really like the west coast match-up of Wazzou vs. Fresno State in Tempe. I hope that the Pac 12 runner up winds up there with the Mountain West champ. I just think that would be fun.
As for the rest of the Big Ten, it seems likely that we will see a bunching of teams with 8 or 9 losses including Penn State, MSU, Iowa, and Ohio State. I already stated that I think the Buckeyes will find their way to Pasadena. As for the other three teams, we can play a little process of elimination game.
Based on the soft "no repeat" rules for the bowls that the Big Ten contracts to, Iowa is not likely to play in either the Outback Bowl (#3) or the TaxSlayer (Gator) Bowl (#5). So, I think it is very likely that the Hawkeyes will land in the Holiday (#4) Bowl.
So, that basically leaves MSU and Penn State to fight over the Citrus Bowl (#2) and the Outback Bowl (#3). If MSU beats Ohio State and Penn State loses to Wisconsin this week, I suspect MSU will get the Citrus Bowl (barring a collapse at Lincoln). If only one or if neither of those things happens, I suspect Penn State will get the nod for the Citrus Bowl. In a slightly lower tier, I would expect Purdue, Wisconsin, and Northwestern to get slotted into the Gator Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, and San Francisco Bowl. Basically, it is a safe bet that Northwestern will get hosed again.
As for MSU's possible opponent, the most likely candidate to me is either Kentucky or Florida. The Wildcats have a very good shot at 10 wins and beat the Gators head-to-head, so the Citrus Bowl seems most likely to me. The Gators are likely to finish 9-3 and my best guess is that puts them into the Outback Bowl. Gun to my head, MSU vs. Florida in Tampa is my pick.
If MSU were to drop 2 of their last 3 to finish at 7-5, I think we would slide to the TaxSlayer / Gator Bowl. That is how I see it.
Well, that is it for this week. My Week 11 preview will be up in a few days. Until then, Go State, Beat the Bucknuts!
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