One of the first first classes that I ever took at MSU was a 200-level political science class that touched on the subject of strategic thinking. It was in this course my first semester that I was first introduced to the classic game theory concept of the Prisoner's Dilemma. The idea is fairly simple: two people are caught be the police, separated, and accused of a crime. If both people stay silent, they will both receive a light sentence. If both rat out their accomplice, they both get a tougher sentence. But, if one prisoner talks and the other stays silent, the rat goes free and the silent prisoner gets a very harsh sentence. There are literally whole text books written on this scenario, but the basic point is that sometimes what seems like a rational decision to an individual is not the best overall decision if people cooperate.
While MSU's situation this week is not exactly like the classic prisoner's dilemma, we are currently imprisoned in the same state as a certain other Big Ten school, and by some measure we have a bit of a dilemma this weekend.
Here is the problem. If MSU beats Ohio State this weekend (which is obviously good), that would virtually guarantee that Michigan wins the East and goes to Indy (which is obviously bad), hence the dilemma.
Some would argue that this is not a dilemma at all because only what happens to MSU matters. But, frankly, life is not that simple. Another concept that I learned in my game theory class is the idea of the zero sum game. Like it or not, MSU and UofM are locked in a competition (sometimes friendly and sometimes not) that is very close to zero sum. If MSU wins, UofM loses, and vice versa. The reason is fairly simple. Both Universities compete with each other from the same pool of limited resources, including recruits, funding, merchandise sales, eyeballs on screens, media attention, etc. While both Universities certainly can and do co-exist, it is quite clear that MSU would be much stronger if the UofM simply didn't exist. Sorry Wolverines (not sorry.)
As for Indy and the Big Ten Championship, that is territory that the Wolverines have never been on, and it would be best for MSU if they never get there. The cumulative failure that the Wolverines have experienced over the past decade is taking its toll, and I am quite sure that they are close a meltdown that could cripple the program for decades to come. But, if they have a truly successful year, it will partially erase much of the progress that MSU has made over the past decade, if for no other reason that the playing field is nowhere close to level. Younger Brother could get a Ph.D. from MIT and Older Brother can successfully poop on the potty and they would get roughly equal praise and respect. Not all families are fair.
So, what does this mean for this weekend? Should MSU fans actually root against the Spartans? Is that in our best interest? Well, despite the lesson of game theory my answer is "hell no." In the prisoner's dilemma, remember, if one person stays silent it only works if the other person stays silent as well. If MSU loses, it only really helps in the long run if OSU goes on to beat the Wolverines on Thanksgiving Weekend. I am not sure about you, but I don't have a lot of faith that the Bucknuts can get that done.
Overall, there are four possible scenarios at play: 1) If MSU loses to OSU and then Michigan beats OSU, the Wolverines are most likely going to the playoffs anyway, and MSU would just slip in the bowl pecking order. 2) Even if OSU were to beat UofM, while that would lock UofM out of a shot at the Big Ten title, they would likely wind up in the Rose Bowl anyway against a soft opponent. That is frankly not great either.
3) Even if MSU beats OSU, there is still a fair chance that OSU could cycle up for a game and knock Michigan out of the playoff hunt. That would be nice, but once again Michigan would likely head to the Rose Bowl after winning the BTCG. Again, not ideal. 4) If both MSU and Michigan beat OSU, MSU could climb as high as the Rose Bowl, which certainly would be a very pleasant outcome, especially considering the opponent would be quite beatable, especially after a month of healing time for the Spartans. But, this would necessarily mean that Michigan makes the Playoffs. But, if this does happen, Michigan gets trucked by Bama and MSU beats Utah (for example) in the Rose Bowl, I think Spartans fans would be pretty happy with that outcome in the long run.
Essentially, in the Prisoner's Dilemma matrix of the MSU-OSU and UofM-OSU games, Michigan is likely going to either the Playoffs or the Rose Bowl in all four scenarios. The only way to prevent this outcome is for Michigan to go to Indy and lose to the West Champion (likely Northwestern or Purdue), which has nothing to do with Ohio State. In this case, Michigan would drop to the Peach Bowl (where they would likely face an SEC team such as LSU or Georgia) or the Fiesta Bowl (where they would likely face the Group of Five Champ, likely UCF). But, this would also cap MSU's best bowl as the Citrus Bowl (I supposed vs. Kentucky) which is also not a bad result.
So, in the end, Go State, Beat the Buckeyes. OK, I am going to exit the rabbit hole now...
As for the game this Saturday, MSU opened as only a 3.5-point home-dog, which translates to a very encouraging 40% chance of victory. Also of note is that my spreadsheet actually favors MSU by 0.6 points and OSU has not beat the spread since they trounced Tulane in late September. Ohio State also enters this game with very suspect stats, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Their passing game is pretty good, but that is about it. Granted, they still have enough talent that they can certainly rise up and dominate, at least for a few plays (just ask Penn State), but will they? Especially on the road? Will MSU continue to inch more towards good health? I am not sure, but if MSU can get this victory, the odds of a nice Bowl Game on New Years Day will go up substantially.
National Overview
Here is my preview chart for this week. I like 10 teams to cover: Utah State, Stanford, The Cuse, Cincinnati, North Texas, UAB, Duke, Iowa, Utah, and Fresno State. In general, though, my algorithm's picks seem to be getting closer to the opening Vegas lines. The R-squared actually jumped from ~0.8 for the last several weeks to 0.91 this week. More data is a good thing.
As for upset picks, It looks like a quiet week with my algorithm picking only 4 upsets, including 3 pretty big ones: Temple > Houston, MSU > OSU, and Texas Tech > Texas. The FPI only has 2 upsets: the Texas one and VA Tech > Pitt. I would say that the spreadsheet's faith in MSU this week is a good sign, but the truth is that the spreadsheet has been wrong about MSU straight-up for 4 of the last 5 weeks. My weekly simulation suggests to look for 13 +/- 3.1 upsets this weekend.
Big Ten
Despite the fact that the current Big Ten favorite Michigan is a 37-point favorite on the road at Rutgers this week, there are a lot of other notable games in B1G country. Of course the MSU-OSU game is big, but don;t count out the other Big Ten East clash of Maryland at Indiana (-3). Maryland is just one win away from Bowl eligibility, while Indiana is two wins away. Both teams have two tough games remaining after this one, so the loser will very likely be home for the holidays. If the winner is IU... they might still be home for the holidays.
But, like most of the year, the most entertaining action will be in the West this week. Northwestern is now the favorite to play in Indy, but they face a stiff challenge at Iowa (-10.5) this week. The spread is shockingly high on some level, but it really doesn't matter much, as Northwestern only needs to win 2 of its final 3 games to clinch the division. Meanwhile, Iowa is just trying to get a win on their resume that looks nominally as good as the "W'" over Iowa State. The next most likely Big Ten West champ, Purdue (-12.5), has a tricky little road trip to Minneapolis this weekend. The spread obviously likes the Boilers, but you always have to be wary of a Gopher in his own hole.
Finally, Wisconsin travels to State College this weekend to face Penn State (-8) in order to jockey for bowl position. I can only imagine that they will spend most of the time before, after, and even during the game discussing how much of a huge disappointment both of their programs have been this year. You can say that again...
SEC
While the race for each division of the SEC is over, both Alabama and Georgia could in theory still play themselves into trouble is they lose focus in the final 3 weeks. Bama (-24) hosts Mississippi State this weekend, while Georgia (-13.5) hosts Auburn. While both teams are heavily favored, the math says there is a 1 in 5 chance that at least one team stumbles this week.
Meanwhile, the rest of the conference is simply playing for bowl position. Kentucky could be on the way to 10 wins and a likely berth in the Citrus bowl, but this week they will need to survive a trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee (+3.5). Similarly, Florida (-5.5) will try to boost their resume with a win over South Carolina. The Gamecocks are simply trying to become bowl eligible as is Texas A&M (who is -12 vs. Ole Miss) and Missouri (-14 vs. Vandy).
ACC
Another week in the ACC bring more of the same. In the Atlantic Division, yet another challenger (this time, Boston College) gets to a chance to try to ruin Clemson's season. This is the last stand, however, as Clemson will clinch the division officially with a win. The Tigers are a 17-point favorite, and the weather in Boston this week is calling simply for clouds with a high in the low 50s. I don't expect this one to be a problem.
In the Coastal Division, another week brings with it the chance to try to clarify what in the heck is going on. Pitt finds themselves in first place and this week they will have a chance to really put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack as they host VA Tech (+4). If the Panthers win, their odds to take the Division will climb to over 90%. They would also earn their 6th win, clinching a post-season berth that involves something more than just getting prison-shanked by Clemson in early December. Finally, in the "almost-but-not-really-relevant" category, Miami travels to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech (-4.5) where the winner will also become bowl eligible.
Big 12
In general, the action on the Great Plains this week looks pretty tame. All the games but one have spreads over 10 points, and both Oklahoma (-17.5 vs, OK State) and West Virginia (-13 vs, TCU) are playing in the confines of their home stadiums. But, the game of the week is clearly Texas' trip to Lubbock to face Texas Tech (+1). The Red Raiders narrowly missed a chance to stay in the Big 12 race last week versus Oklahoma, and this week they hope to end the title hope of the Longhorns. In other action, Baylor visits Iowa State (-14) and the winner will be bowl eligible. Finally, the Kansas schools will meet to decide once and for all who sucks the most in the Big 12 this year. The smart money is on the Jayhawks (+11.5).
Pac 12
While there are no serious head-to-head match ups out West this week, there are still a lot of teams still fighting for a Division title, and all of them will try to avoid screwing up this weekend. In the North, Washington is on a bye, but Wazzou will try to protect their one-game lead in the standings as well as their faint Playoff dreams. The Cougars travel to Colorado where they are only a 4-point favorite.
Meanwhile, the race in the South is such a mess that no one can really afford to blink. My spreadsheet still likes Utah to win the Division, but they face a stiff home test against Oregon (+3). Arizona State face a bit of a lighter challenge vs. UCLA (+11.5), while USC (-5.5) hopes to stay in the conversation as they host pesky Cal.
Independents / Group of Five
For the Fighting Irish, only three very winnable games stand between them and their dream of getting embarrassed by Clemson on a holiday weekend. This week's opponent, Florida State (+18), looked like a much scarier foe back in August, but now... not so much, and the game will be played in South Bend. I don't see any drama happening here.
As for the Group of Five, in the AAC, current favorite UCF is not expected to be tested vs. Navy (+25), but the Golden Knight's main competition will have to pass some tricky tests. The last remaining serious contender, Cincinnati, hosts South Florida (+12) this weekend, but the Bearcats are a healthy favorite. The more interesting match-up is that of Temple at Houston (-5). The Cougars took a big hit last week by losing to SMU, but they are still in first place in the AAC West, and they might be able to stay that way if they can beat the Owls. It seems like Houston would have one of the better chances at upsetting UCF in the AAC Conference Championship. On the flip side, Temple is just trying to stay alive in the race for the East.
In the Mountain West, Fresno State is the current favorite with a fair shot at earning that NY6 bid if UCF stumbles. This week the Bulldogs face their biggest conference challenge of the year as they travel to Boise to face the Broncos (+2.5). My spreadsheet likes Fresno by two touchdowns, but Vegas expects this one to be close.
As for the remaining teams that I am tracking as outside NY6 contenders, Utah State (-29.5) is a huge favorite over San Jose State, UAB (-11.5) looks poised to continue to roll over Southern Miss, and not only did Buffalo already beat Kent State this week by 34, their biggest challengers in the MAC East, Ohio, got upset by Miami (OH).
That is all for now. As always, with no feeling of a Dilemma, Go State, Beat the Buckeyes!
While MSU's situation this week is not exactly like the classic prisoner's dilemma, we are currently imprisoned in the same state as a certain other Big Ten school, and by some measure we have a bit of a dilemma this weekend.
Here is the problem. If MSU beats Ohio State this weekend (which is obviously good), that would virtually guarantee that Michigan wins the East and goes to Indy (which is obviously bad), hence the dilemma.
Some would argue that this is not a dilemma at all because only what happens to MSU matters. But, frankly, life is not that simple. Another concept that I learned in my game theory class is the idea of the zero sum game. Like it or not, MSU and UofM are locked in a competition (sometimes friendly and sometimes not) that is very close to zero sum. If MSU wins, UofM loses, and vice versa. The reason is fairly simple. Both Universities compete with each other from the same pool of limited resources, including recruits, funding, merchandise sales, eyeballs on screens, media attention, etc. While both Universities certainly can and do co-exist, it is quite clear that MSU would be much stronger if the UofM simply didn't exist. Sorry Wolverines (not sorry.)
As for Indy and the Big Ten Championship, that is territory that the Wolverines have never been on, and it would be best for MSU if they never get there. The cumulative failure that the Wolverines have experienced over the past decade is taking its toll, and I am quite sure that they are close a meltdown that could cripple the program for decades to come. But, if they have a truly successful year, it will partially erase much of the progress that MSU has made over the past decade, if for no other reason that the playing field is nowhere close to level. Younger Brother could get a Ph.D. from MIT and Older Brother can successfully poop on the potty and they would get roughly equal praise and respect. Not all families are fair.
So, what does this mean for this weekend? Should MSU fans actually root against the Spartans? Is that in our best interest? Well, despite the lesson of game theory my answer is "hell no." In the prisoner's dilemma, remember, if one person stays silent it only works if the other person stays silent as well. If MSU loses, it only really helps in the long run if OSU goes on to beat the Wolverines on Thanksgiving Weekend. I am not sure about you, but I don't have a lot of faith that the Bucknuts can get that done.
Overall, there are four possible scenarios at play: 1) If MSU loses to OSU and then Michigan beats OSU, the Wolverines are most likely going to the playoffs anyway, and MSU would just slip in the bowl pecking order. 2) Even if OSU were to beat UofM, while that would lock UofM out of a shot at the Big Ten title, they would likely wind up in the Rose Bowl anyway against a soft opponent. That is frankly not great either.
3) Even if MSU beats OSU, there is still a fair chance that OSU could cycle up for a game and knock Michigan out of the playoff hunt. That would be nice, but once again Michigan would likely head to the Rose Bowl after winning the BTCG. Again, not ideal. 4) If both MSU and Michigan beat OSU, MSU could climb as high as the Rose Bowl, which certainly would be a very pleasant outcome, especially considering the opponent would be quite beatable, especially after a month of healing time for the Spartans. But, this would necessarily mean that Michigan makes the Playoffs. But, if this does happen, Michigan gets trucked by Bama and MSU beats Utah (for example) in the Rose Bowl, I think Spartans fans would be pretty happy with that outcome in the long run.
Essentially, in the Prisoner's Dilemma matrix of the MSU-OSU and UofM-OSU games, Michigan is likely going to either the Playoffs or the Rose Bowl in all four scenarios. The only way to prevent this outcome is for Michigan to go to Indy and lose to the West Champion (likely Northwestern or Purdue), which has nothing to do with Ohio State. In this case, Michigan would drop to the Peach Bowl (where they would likely face an SEC team such as LSU or Georgia) or the Fiesta Bowl (where they would likely face the Group of Five Champ, likely UCF). But, this would also cap MSU's best bowl as the Citrus Bowl (I supposed vs. Kentucky) which is also not a bad result.
So, in the end, Go State, Beat the Buckeyes. OK, I am going to exit the rabbit hole now...
As for the game this Saturday, MSU opened as only a 3.5-point home-dog, which translates to a very encouraging 40% chance of victory. Also of note is that my spreadsheet actually favors MSU by 0.6 points and OSU has not beat the spread since they trounced Tulane in late September. Ohio State also enters this game with very suspect stats, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Their passing game is pretty good, but that is about it. Granted, they still have enough talent that they can certainly rise up and dominate, at least for a few plays (just ask Penn State), but will they? Especially on the road? Will MSU continue to inch more towards good health? I am not sure, but if MSU can get this victory, the odds of a nice Bowl Game on New Years Day will go up substantially.
National Overview
Here is my preview chart for this week. I like 10 teams to cover: Utah State, Stanford, The Cuse, Cincinnati, North Texas, UAB, Duke, Iowa, Utah, and Fresno State. In general, though, my algorithm's picks seem to be getting closer to the opening Vegas lines. The R-squared actually jumped from ~0.8 for the last several weeks to 0.91 this week. More data is a good thing.
As for upset picks, It looks like a quiet week with my algorithm picking only 4 upsets, including 3 pretty big ones: Temple > Houston, MSU > OSU, and Texas Tech > Texas. The FPI only has 2 upsets: the Texas one and VA Tech > Pitt. I would say that the spreadsheet's faith in MSU this week is a good sign, but the truth is that the spreadsheet has been wrong about MSU straight-up for 4 of the last 5 weeks. My weekly simulation suggests to look for 13 +/- 3.1 upsets this weekend.
Big Ten
Despite the fact that the current Big Ten favorite Michigan is a 37-point favorite on the road at Rutgers this week, there are a lot of other notable games in B1G country. Of course the MSU-OSU game is big, but don;t count out the other Big Ten East clash of Maryland at Indiana (-3). Maryland is just one win away from Bowl eligibility, while Indiana is two wins away. Both teams have two tough games remaining after this one, so the loser will very likely be home for the holidays. If the winner is IU... they might still be home for the holidays.
But, like most of the year, the most entertaining action will be in the West this week. Northwestern is now the favorite to play in Indy, but they face a stiff challenge at Iowa (-10.5) this week. The spread is shockingly high on some level, but it really doesn't matter much, as Northwestern only needs to win 2 of its final 3 games to clinch the division. Meanwhile, Iowa is just trying to get a win on their resume that looks nominally as good as the "W'" over Iowa State. The next most likely Big Ten West champ, Purdue (-12.5), has a tricky little road trip to Minneapolis this weekend. The spread obviously likes the Boilers, but you always have to be wary of a Gopher in his own hole.
Finally, Wisconsin travels to State College this weekend to face Penn State (-8) in order to jockey for bowl position. I can only imagine that they will spend most of the time before, after, and even during the game discussing how much of a huge disappointment both of their programs have been this year. You can say that again...
SEC
While the race for each division of the SEC is over, both Alabama and Georgia could in theory still play themselves into trouble is they lose focus in the final 3 weeks. Bama (-24) hosts Mississippi State this weekend, while Georgia (-13.5) hosts Auburn. While both teams are heavily favored, the math says there is a 1 in 5 chance that at least one team stumbles this week.
Meanwhile, the rest of the conference is simply playing for bowl position. Kentucky could be on the way to 10 wins and a likely berth in the Citrus bowl, but this week they will need to survive a trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee (+3.5). Similarly, Florida (-5.5) will try to boost their resume with a win over South Carolina. The Gamecocks are simply trying to become bowl eligible as is Texas A&M (who is -12 vs. Ole Miss) and Missouri (-14 vs. Vandy).
ACC
Another week in the ACC bring more of the same. In the Atlantic Division, yet another challenger (this time, Boston College) gets to a chance to try to ruin Clemson's season. This is the last stand, however, as Clemson will clinch the division officially with a win. The Tigers are a 17-point favorite, and the weather in Boston this week is calling simply for clouds with a high in the low 50s. I don't expect this one to be a problem.
In the Coastal Division, another week brings with it the chance to try to clarify what in the heck is going on. Pitt finds themselves in first place and this week they will have a chance to really put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack as they host VA Tech (+4). If the Panthers win, their odds to take the Division will climb to over 90%. They would also earn their 6th win, clinching a post-season berth that involves something more than just getting prison-shanked by Clemson in early December. Finally, in the "almost-but-not-really-relevant" category, Miami travels to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech (-4.5) where the winner will also become bowl eligible.
Big 12
In general, the action on the Great Plains this week looks pretty tame. All the games but one have spreads over 10 points, and both Oklahoma (-17.5 vs, OK State) and West Virginia (-13 vs, TCU) are playing in the confines of their home stadiums. But, the game of the week is clearly Texas' trip to Lubbock to face Texas Tech (+1). The Red Raiders narrowly missed a chance to stay in the Big 12 race last week versus Oklahoma, and this week they hope to end the title hope of the Longhorns. In other action, Baylor visits Iowa State (-14) and the winner will be bowl eligible. Finally, the Kansas schools will meet to decide once and for all who sucks the most in the Big 12 this year. The smart money is on the Jayhawks (+11.5).
Pac 12
While there are no serious head-to-head match ups out West this week, there are still a lot of teams still fighting for a Division title, and all of them will try to avoid screwing up this weekend. In the North, Washington is on a bye, but Wazzou will try to protect their one-game lead in the standings as well as their faint Playoff dreams. The Cougars travel to Colorado where they are only a 4-point favorite.
Meanwhile, the race in the South is such a mess that no one can really afford to blink. My spreadsheet still likes Utah to win the Division, but they face a stiff home test against Oregon (+3). Arizona State face a bit of a lighter challenge vs. UCLA (+11.5), while USC (-5.5) hopes to stay in the conversation as they host pesky Cal.
Independents / Group of Five
For the Fighting Irish, only three very winnable games stand between them and their dream of getting embarrassed by Clemson on a holiday weekend. This week's opponent, Florida State (+18), looked like a much scarier foe back in August, but now... not so much, and the game will be played in South Bend. I don't see any drama happening here.
As for the Group of Five, in the AAC, current favorite UCF is not expected to be tested vs. Navy (+25), but the Golden Knight's main competition will have to pass some tricky tests. The last remaining serious contender, Cincinnati, hosts South Florida (+12) this weekend, but the Bearcats are a healthy favorite. The more interesting match-up is that of Temple at Houston (-5). The Cougars took a big hit last week by losing to SMU, but they are still in first place in the AAC West, and they might be able to stay that way if they can beat the Owls. It seems like Houston would have one of the better chances at upsetting UCF in the AAC Conference Championship. On the flip side, Temple is just trying to stay alive in the race for the East.
In the Mountain West, Fresno State is the current favorite with a fair shot at earning that NY6 bid if UCF stumbles. This week the Bulldogs face their biggest conference challenge of the year as they travel to Boise to face the Broncos (+2.5). My spreadsheet likes Fresno by two touchdowns, but Vegas expects this one to be close.
As for the remaining teams that I am tracking as outside NY6 contenders, Utah State (-29.5) is a huge favorite over San Jose State, UAB (-11.5) looks poised to continue to roll over Southern Miss, and not only did Buffalo already beat Kent State this week by 34, their biggest challengers in the MAC East, Ohio, got upset by Miami (OH).
That is all for now. As always, with no feeling of a Dilemma, Go State, Beat the Buckeyes!
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