As should be obvious by now, I am a pretty optimistic person. So, just like pretty much every game this year, I thought MSU had a good chance of beating the Buckeyes. It is not that I necessarily expect MSU to win every game; it is more that I can usually at least imagine a scenario where MSU can win, and I can calculate the probability that it will happen. Wait... this is odd. A man wearing red just showed up at my computer and is insisting that I have to wait 2 and a half to 3 minutes before I can continue typ...
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OK, I'm back. As for the game itself, in order for MSU to win, I figured the defense would need to play great (check), the offense and QB play would at least need to be functional (nope), the run game would need to also be functional (uhn uhn), special teams would at least need to be a draw (sorry), and MSU might need a good bounce or two (LOL!)
All things considered, much like the Michigan game, it is a minor miracle that MSU was even in striking distance into the 4th quarter. With the current pieces on offense that the coaching staff has to work with, it is basically going to take an incredible effort on defense plus some luck in order to beat good teams. MSU will be able to hang with or beat mediocre to bad teams this way, but good teams? Good luck.... Come on, the red-clad dude is back again, and again he is sayi...
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I'm back. Where were we? Yes, so MSU lost to Ohio State and the narrow path that MSU had to the Rose Bowl is now closed. It is disappointing for a lot of reasons, but mostly because it would not have taken much for this team to really have had a great season. Considering how down the Big Ten is this year, give us back the offense from the Holiday Bowl coupled with this defense and I think MSU could have won 11 games (or more) and easily been in the NY6 conversation, if not the play-off discussion. When healthy, this team is not that far away... Not again. Seriously red-hat dude, what is your pr...
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I'm back. And, you know what? MSU will be back again soon as well. Despite the losses this year, as I look around the Big Ten and the Big Ten East especially, it is hard not to be at least a little optimistic. I have never been a James Franklin fan, and if anything, the Lions under-achieved more than MSU has so far this season based on what they have had to work with. I also was never sold on Urban Meyer as anything more that a quick fix in Columbus. He tends to do great with other coach's players, but tends to flame out after 4-5 years. I am not even sure he will be on the sidelines there next year.
Everyone is gushing over the Wolverines right now and claiming they are "back", but back to what, exactly? Consistently winning 9 games a year over weak opponents and never actually winning the big game? That is all they have even been and all that they likely will be now. With ticking-time-bomb-Harbaugh on the sidelines, they are ripe for an epic implosion. I wouldn't even rule out Jimbo punching a opposing player during their bowl game (maybe even from Clemson), old-school Big Ten style! From simply the standpoint of proven success and stability, is there any program in better shape than MSU in the Big Ten East going forward? It may not seem like it now, but I certainly can make that argu... DUDE! SERIOUSLY! I AM TRYING TO WORK H...
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OK, I'm back. Hopefully that will be the last time-out for while. As for the rest of the season, MSU still has the one-foot putt game with Rutgers to close the season, which means next week's game at Lincoln will very likely determine if MSU finishes at 8-4 or 7-5. Right now, my math gives MSU a 58% chance to win 8. Ironically, win or lose, my projection is that MSU will play in the Outback Bowl.
The logic behind that is as follows. Michigan and Ohio State both look very likely to play in the NY6, and Penn State is very likely to finish at 9-3 and secure a trip to the Citrus Bowl. Some projections think Northwestern will get the invite to Orlando, which I guess could happen, but the Wildcats will collect at least 5 losses (otherwise they're going to Pasadena) and I just don't see them getting the nod over PSU. The soft "no repeat" rule means that Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern are out for the Outback Bowl, which means MSU is the candidate almost by default. Purdue is the only other likely bowl eligible team, and they are sitting at 5-5 with two tricky games left and a head-to-head loss to MSU. I have been burned by an Outback Bowl prediction before, but the likelihood of MSU to Tampa seems over 90% to m...
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I am really starting to hate that guy in red. Anyway, I guess the only positive to come out of the game this weekend is that the Big Ten East race is not yet over, and the Bucknuts still have a chance to ruin the season for the Wolverines in two weeks. It is a bit of a bitter pill, but at least it is something. Oddly, Chris Solari actually tried to argue that the big winner in the MSU-OSU game was actually... Michigan, because it gives them a chance to beat a higher ranked team (OSU) and pad their resume. Huh? I assume that Chris must realize that an OSU loss would have virtually clinched the East for the Wolverines, right? Oh well. Besides, I think that it should be obvious that the big winner this weekend was not Michigan or even OSU... it clearly was Fox Sports, or at least their advertisers... so many advertisers...
National Overview
As usual, here is my results chart for Week 11. The spreadsheet had a so-so week, going 29-32 ATS (47.5%) and 4-6 (40%) for covers. Year-to-date, I am 279-315 (47%) overall and 62-60 (51%) for covers, My consolation is that the FPI did worse this week at 26-35 (43%). Year-to-date, the FPI is 298-294 (50.3%) overall against the spread.
Here is the upset table for Week 11. I count 12 upsets total, which is well in line with the predicted 13.0. My spreadsheet only got 1 of 4 correct (25%), while the FPI went 0-2. YTD, I am 39-50 (44%) for upsets while the FPI is 26-22 (54%). For Power 5 teams, Minnesota's upset of Purdue and Northwestern's upset of Iowa were clearly the two biggest events of the weekend.
Big Ten
Leading up to the games on Saturday, it looked like there was a chance that the East race might get wrapped up a bit early, while the race in the West looked like it was headed for a potentially wild finish. In reality, exactly the opposite happened. Well, perhaps all the wildness in the west just happened to be concentrated into this week. It started with Northwestern's somewhat-surprising upset of the Hawkeyes in Iowa City to drive their record to 6-1. Then, the only two teams left in the division who could challenge them (Purdue and Wisconsin) both wet themselves in fairly spectacular fashion. The BADgers lost at Penn State by 12 (OK, sure) while PurDidn't somehow went to Minneapolis and got spanked by 31 (whuuuut?) So, with a 2 game lead, 2 games remaining, and all the tiebreakers in hand, Northwestern will be the 7th team to make it to the Big Ten Championship game.
Meanwhile, in the East as we all know, OSU survived a trip to East Lansing and will now try to muster the strength to prevent the Wolverines from becoming the 8th Big 10 team to make it to Indy. Godspeed, you hairless nuts with no economic value. Speaking of the Wolverines, they made it back safely from their weekend kegger on the Jersey shore. In other news, Indiana scored late to beat Maryland, dropping both teams to 5-5 and perhaps meaning that neither team will make a Bowl. Minnesota also made it to 5 wins with their upset of Purdue, but with Northwestern and Wisconsin on the schedule, getting to 6 looks to be challenging.
As a final note, I am changing up my conference projection tables this week, as in many of the conferences, the race is almost over. So, I am instead just going to show my updated power rankings, the odds to win the overall conference title, the expected value of total wins, the number of games each team is favored to win (i.e. odds over 50%), and my projected bowl placement. The table for the Big Ten is shown below.
SEC
Let's go honest. We're pretty much just killing time in the SEC these days. With the SEC Title game already decided, Bama and Georgia just need to not embarrass themselves, which they accomplished this week by taking out Mississippi State and Auburn. Just when we were starting to think that Alabama might be vulnerable on defense, they just went ahead and shut-out two Top 20 teams in consecutive weeks. Yikes!
Elsewhere, the only other notable result is that Kentucky stumbled at Tennessee, which likely knocks the Wildcats out of a potential NY6 spot. Tennessee, on the other hand, can actually secure a bowl if they can one of their final two games. In addition, both Texas A&M and Missouri officially looked up bowl bids this weekend by dispatching Ole Miss and Vandy, respectively.
ACC
The inevitable finally happened this week in the ACC Atlantic Division, as Clemson put down the Eagles of Boston College to officially clinch a spot in the ACC Title Game. On the other side of the conference, Pitt had a surprisingly decisive win over Virginia Tech (52-22) to maintain their 1-game lead in the division with 2 games to go. Seeing as they already have the tie-breaker in hand against Virginia (the only team not mathematically eliminated), the Panthers just need to beat either Wake Forest or Miami (both on the road) or hope Virginia drops one of their last two (at GA Tech and VA Tech). I peg the Panthers odds at 95% to face Clemson for all the ACC marbles. The only other notable result is that Georgia Tech bested Miami to get to 6 wins, while NC State was upset by Wake Forest.
Big 12
While the Big 10, SEC, and ACC races are clearly winding down, the Big 12 race still has a few twists and turns. As I look through the results this week, there weren't any real surprises from a W and L point of view. However, there certainly were some notable story lines. At the top of the conference, West Virginia had no trouble with TCU, but Oklahoma barely escaped Bedlam with a win over the Cowboys. Similarly, in the 2nd tier of teams still fighting for the Big 12 crown, Iowa State doubled up Baylor, 28-14, while Texas just edged out the Red Raiders in Lubbock. As a result, all four teams are still alive in the conference race.
Up until last week, I did not have a rigorous way to calculate the "real" odds to win the Big 12, because it is a bit of a pain to calculate the odds of a team finishing 2nd. But, now that the season is almost over, the total number of permutations is much more limited, and the problem is much simpler. So, I went through the math and figured it out. Right now, West Virginia has a significant edge in my power rankings, and they get the benefit of drawing Oklahoma in Morgantown in two weeks. My math gives them an 89% chance to at least make the Big 12 Title game, and a 64% chance overall to win it. While most people would expect the Moutainneers will face the Sooners again in the Title game, that scenario is actually only 50-50, as a WVU-Texas match-up has about a 1/3 chance in occurring instead. In general, Texas and Iowa State have about a 5% chance of winning the title, which is a lot better than the <1% odds that my faulty math had for them last week.
Pac 12
I will hand it to the Pac 12. They may not be great at football this year, but they certainly are keeping things interesting. In the North, things were a bit more calm, as the two remaining candidates either had a bye (Washington) or won easily (Washington State over Colorado). Those two teams will be back later this season to square off and decide who gets all the apples. I really hope they get a trophy for winner that game... (stops to Google it...) Oh, yeah there is a trophy, but it looks like an over-sized rec-league bowling trophy. Amateurs.
But, the real fun this year has been in the South, where you just never know what you are going to get from week to week, as just 2 games separates 1st place from last place. Despite a late-season rash of injuries, Utah was able to beat the Ducks this week to maintain a half-game lead over both Arizona (who was on a bye) and Arizona State (who edged UCLA this week by 3). Arizona State owns a tie-breaker over the Utes, but the Sun Devils have a much tougher road left (at Oregon and at Arizona, compared to only at Colorado for Utah). As such, my calculations still give the Utes a ~70% chance to win the Division. In principle, USC may still mathematically may be alive at 4-4, but their loss this weekend to the dream-killers, AKA the Cal Bears, will make that a very tough road. Finally, by virtue of their wins this weekend, Stanford (over Oregon State), Arizona State, and Cal are all know bowl eligible, while Arizona, USC, and Colorado remain a game away.
Independent / Group of Five
Earlier in the week, there were some whispers wondering if Notre Dame, especially without their staring QB, might struggle against Florida State. Answer: "No." After there 29-point win on Senior Day, the Irish simply need to take care of Syracuse next week and USC in L.A. and they can start planing for their mercy killing at the hands of Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
As for the Group of Five, the AAC continues to be intriguing as no fewer than 7 teams (UCF, Temple, Cincinnati, SMU, Houston, Memphis, and Tulane) actually have a legit chance to win the conference. The only one of those teams to lose this week was Houston, who did so at the hands of Temple. As for the NY6, only UCF (9-0) and Cincinnati (9-1) would seem to have any legitimate shot at the spot.
In the Mountain West, Boise State managed to upset Fresno State on the blue field, which for all intents and purposes, ends the Bulldogs potential bid for the NY6. However, San Diego State somehow lost to UNLV (current power ranking = 111/130), so the Bulldogs are still a very safe bet to win the West Division. In the Mountain Division, Utah State is continuing to roll. But, Boise's win this week (which was not expected) means that the Boise-Utah State game in two weeks will decide the division crown. As the game is also in Boise, this race is now 50-50 again after skewing severely towards the Aggies for most of the season.
In other action, Buffalo (9-1) and UAB (9-1) continued their wining ways in the MAC and C-USA.
And finally:
If the Season Ended Today... That Would Be Weird.
With one additional week of data, I will update my conference and NY6 picks slightly:
ACC: Clemson over Pitt
Big Ten: Michigan over Northwestern
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Big 12: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Pac 12: Washington State over Utah
Just like last week, I have Notre Dame winning out, and UCF stumbling vs. Cincinnati. The AAC tie-breaker could get weird, but after Fresno State's loss this week, I am going to go ahead and pick Cincinnati to win the AAC and earn the NY6 berth, honestly without thinking about it too hard. So, my updated NY6 picks are:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Skunk-bears
Orange Bow: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Washington State vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Peach Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Florida
I only changed a few picks, as my model now likes Washington State to win the Pac 12. That leaves a vacuum for the final NY6 slot, and based on the most recent Playoff ranking, it seems that a 9-3 Florida squad would get the nod. For geographical considerations, I shifted the Florida-Cincinnati match-up to the Peach Bowl and pushed LSU-Oklahoma out west to the Fiesta Bowl.
As for MSU, the addition of Florida to the NY6 shakes up the bowl line-up in the SEC, and I now project Kentucky to play Penn State in the Citrus Bowl and MSU to draw Missouri in the Outback Bowl, although Mississippi State would also get strong consideration. It seems that the Outback Bowl prefers an SEC East team, but I am not sure how strong that preference really is.
That is all for this week. I will have my Week 12 Preview up soon. Until then, and as always, Go State, Beat the Huskers!
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OK, I'm back. As for the game itself, in order for MSU to win, I figured the defense would need to play great (check), the offense and QB play would at least need to be functional (nope), the run game would need to also be functional (uhn uhn), special teams would at least need to be a draw (sorry), and MSU might need a good bounce or two (LOL!)
All things considered, much like the Michigan game, it is a minor miracle that MSU was even in striking distance into the 4th quarter. With the current pieces on offense that the coaching staff has to work with, it is basically going to take an incredible effort on defense plus some luck in order to beat good teams. MSU will be able to hang with or beat mediocre to bad teams this way, but good teams? Good luck.... Come on, the red-clad dude is back again, and again he is sayi...
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I'm back. Where were we? Yes, so MSU lost to Ohio State and the narrow path that MSU had to the Rose Bowl is now closed. It is disappointing for a lot of reasons, but mostly because it would not have taken much for this team to really have had a great season. Considering how down the Big Ten is this year, give us back the offense from the Holiday Bowl coupled with this defense and I think MSU could have won 11 games (or more) and easily been in the NY6 conversation, if not the play-off discussion. When healthy, this team is not that far away... Not again. Seriously red-hat dude, what is your pr...
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I'm back. And, you know what? MSU will be back again soon as well. Despite the losses this year, as I look around the Big Ten and the Big Ten East especially, it is hard not to be at least a little optimistic. I have never been a James Franklin fan, and if anything, the Lions under-achieved more than MSU has so far this season based on what they have had to work with. I also was never sold on Urban Meyer as anything more that a quick fix in Columbus. He tends to do great with other coach's players, but tends to flame out after 4-5 years. I am not even sure he will be on the sidelines there next year.
Everyone is gushing over the Wolverines right now and claiming they are "back", but back to what, exactly? Consistently winning 9 games a year over weak opponents and never actually winning the big game? That is all they have even been and all that they likely will be now. With ticking-time-bomb-Harbaugh on the sidelines, they are ripe for an epic implosion. I wouldn't even rule out Jimbo punching a opposing player during their bowl game (maybe even from Clemson), old-school Big Ten style! From simply the standpoint of proven success and stability, is there any program in better shape than MSU in the Big Ten East going forward? It may not seem like it now, but I certainly can make that argu... DUDE! SERIOUSLY! I AM TRYING TO WORK H...
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OK, I'm back. Hopefully that will be the last time-out for while. As for the rest of the season, MSU still has the one-foot putt game with Rutgers to close the season, which means next week's game at Lincoln will very likely determine if MSU finishes at 8-4 or 7-5. Right now, my math gives MSU a 58% chance to win 8. Ironically, win or lose, my projection is that MSU will play in the Outback Bowl.
The logic behind that is as follows. Michigan and Ohio State both look very likely to play in the NY6, and Penn State is very likely to finish at 9-3 and secure a trip to the Citrus Bowl. Some projections think Northwestern will get the invite to Orlando, which I guess could happen, but the Wildcats will collect at least 5 losses (otherwise they're going to Pasadena) and I just don't see them getting the nod over PSU. The soft "no repeat" rule means that Wisconsin, Iowa, and Northwestern are out for the Outback Bowl, which means MSU is the candidate almost by default. Purdue is the only other likely bowl eligible team, and they are sitting at 5-5 with two tricky games left and a head-to-head loss to MSU. I have been burned by an Outback Bowl prediction before, but the likelihood of MSU to Tampa seems over 90% to m...
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I am really starting to hate that guy in red. Anyway, I guess the only positive to come out of the game this weekend is that the Big Ten East race is not yet over, and the Bucknuts still have a chance to ruin the season for the Wolverines in two weeks. It is a bit of a bitter pill, but at least it is something. Oddly, Chris Solari actually tried to argue that the big winner in the MSU-OSU game was actually... Michigan, because it gives them a chance to beat a higher ranked team (OSU) and pad their resume. Huh? I assume that Chris must realize that an OSU loss would have virtually clinched the East for the Wolverines, right? Oh well. Besides, I think that it should be obvious that the big winner this weekend was not Michigan or even OSU... it clearly was Fox Sports, or at least their advertisers... so many advertisers...
National Overview
As usual, here is my results chart for Week 11. The spreadsheet had a so-so week, going 29-32 ATS (47.5%) and 4-6 (40%) for covers. Year-to-date, I am 279-315 (47%) overall and 62-60 (51%) for covers, My consolation is that the FPI did worse this week at 26-35 (43%). Year-to-date, the FPI is 298-294 (50.3%) overall against the spread.
Here is the upset table for Week 11. I count 12 upsets total, which is well in line with the predicted 13.0. My spreadsheet only got 1 of 4 correct (25%), while the FPI went 0-2. YTD, I am 39-50 (44%) for upsets while the FPI is 26-22 (54%). For Power 5 teams, Minnesota's upset of Purdue and Northwestern's upset of Iowa were clearly the two biggest events of the weekend.
Big Ten
Leading up to the games on Saturday, it looked like there was a chance that the East race might get wrapped up a bit early, while the race in the West looked like it was headed for a potentially wild finish. In reality, exactly the opposite happened. Well, perhaps all the wildness in the west just happened to be concentrated into this week. It started with Northwestern's somewhat-surprising upset of the Hawkeyes in Iowa City to drive their record to 6-1. Then, the only two teams left in the division who could challenge them (Purdue and Wisconsin) both wet themselves in fairly spectacular fashion. The BADgers lost at Penn State by 12 (OK, sure) while PurDidn't somehow went to Minneapolis and got spanked by 31 (whuuuut?) So, with a 2 game lead, 2 games remaining, and all the tiebreakers in hand, Northwestern will be the 7th team to make it to the Big Ten Championship game.
Meanwhile, in the East as we all know, OSU survived a trip to East Lansing and will now try to muster the strength to prevent the Wolverines from becoming the 8th Big 10 team to make it to Indy. Godspeed, you hairless nuts with no economic value. Speaking of the Wolverines, they made it back safely from their weekend kegger on the Jersey shore. In other news, Indiana scored late to beat Maryland, dropping both teams to 5-5 and perhaps meaning that neither team will make a Bowl. Minnesota also made it to 5 wins with their upset of Purdue, but with Northwestern and Wisconsin on the schedule, getting to 6 looks to be challenging.
As a final note, I am changing up my conference projection tables this week, as in many of the conferences, the race is almost over. So, I am instead just going to show my updated power rankings, the odds to win the overall conference title, the expected value of total wins, the number of games each team is favored to win (i.e. odds over 50%), and my projected bowl placement. The table for the Big Ten is shown below.
SEC
Let's go honest. We're pretty much just killing time in the SEC these days. With the SEC Title game already decided, Bama and Georgia just need to not embarrass themselves, which they accomplished this week by taking out Mississippi State and Auburn. Just when we were starting to think that Alabama might be vulnerable on defense, they just went ahead and shut-out two Top 20 teams in consecutive weeks. Yikes!
Elsewhere, the only other notable result is that Kentucky stumbled at Tennessee, which likely knocks the Wildcats out of a potential NY6 spot. Tennessee, on the other hand, can actually secure a bowl if they can one of their final two games. In addition, both Texas A&M and Missouri officially looked up bowl bids this weekend by dispatching Ole Miss and Vandy, respectively.
ACC
The inevitable finally happened this week in the ACC Atlantic Division, as Clemson put down the Eagles of Boston College to officially clinch a spot in the ACC Title Game. On the other side of the conference, Pitt had a surprisingly decisive win over Virginia Tech (52-22) to maintain their 1-game lead in the division with 2 games to go. Seeing as they already have the tie-breaker in hand against Virginia (the only team not mathematically eliminated), the Panthers just need to beat either Wake Forest or Miami (both on the road) or hope Virginia drops one of their last two (at GA Tech and VA Tech). I peg the Panthers odds at 95% to face Clemson for all the ACC marbles. The only other notable result is that Georgia Tech bested Miami to get to 6 wins, while NC State was upset by Wake Forest.
Big 12
While the Big 10, SEC, and ACC races are clearly winding down, the Big 12 race still has a few twists and turns. As I look through the results this week, there weren't any real surprises from a W and L point of view. However, there certainly were some notable story lines. At the top of the conference, West Virginia had no trouble with TCU, but Oklahoma barely escaped Bedlam with a win over the Cowboys. Similarly, in the 2nd tier of teams still fighting for the Big 12 crown, Iowa State doubled up Baylor, 28-14, while Texas just edged out the Red Raiders in Lubbock. As a result, all four teams are still alive in the conference race.
Up until last week, I did not have a rigorous way to calculate the "real" odds to win the Big 12, because it is a bit of a pain to calculate the odds of a team finishing 2nd. But, now that the season is almost over, the total number of permutations is much more limited, and the problem is much simpler. So, I went through the math and figured it out. Right now, West Virginia has a significant edge in my power rankings, and they get the benefit of drawing Oklahoma in Morgantown in two weeks. My math gives them an 89% chance to at least make the Big 12 Title game, and a 64% chance overall to win it. While most people would expect the Moutainneers will face the Sooners again in the Title game, that scenario is actually only 50-50, as a WVU-Texas match-up has about a 1/3 chance in occurring instead. In general, Texas and Iowa State have about a 5% chance of winning the title, which is a lot better than the <1% odds that my faulty math had for them last week.
Pac 12
I will hand it to the Pac 12. They may not be great at football this year, but they certainly are keeping things interesting. In the North, things were a bit more calm, as the two remaining candidates either had a bye (Washington) or won easily (Washington State over Colorado). Those two teams will be back later this season to square off and decide who gets all the apples. I really hope they get a trophy for winner that game... (stops to Google it...) Oh, yeah there is a trophy, but it looks like an over-sized rec-league bowling trophy. Amateurs.
But, the real fun this year has been in the South, where you just never know what you are going to get from week to week, as just 2 games separates 1st place from last place. Despite a late-season rash of injuries, Utah was able to beat the Ducks this week to maintain a half-game lead over both Arizona (who was on a bye) and Arizona State (who edged UCLA this week by 3). Arizona State owns a tie-breaker over the Utes, but the Sun Devils have a much tougher road left (at Oregon and at Arizona, compared to only at Colorado for Utah). As such, my calculations still give the Utes a ~70% chance to win the Division. In principle, USC may still mathematically may be alive at 4-4, but their loss this weekend to the dream-killers, AKA the Cal Bears, will make that a very tough road. Finally, by virtue of their wins this weekend, Stanford (over Oregon State), Arizona State, and Cal are all know bowl eligible, while Arizona, USC, and Colorado remain a game away.
Independent / Group of Five
Earlier in the week, there were some whispers wondering if Notre Dame, especially without their staring QB, might struggle against Florida State. Answer: "No." After there 29-point win on Senior Day, the Irish simply need to take care of Syracuse next week and USC in L.A. and they can start planing for their mercy killing at the hands of Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
As for the Group of Five, the AAC continues to be intriguing as no fewer than 7 teams (UCF, Temple, Cincinnati, SMU, Houston, Memphis, and Tulane) actually have a legit chance to win the conference. The only one of those teams to lose this week was Houston, who did so at the hands of Temple. As for the NY6, only UCF (9-0) and Cincinnati (9-1) would seem to have any legitimate shot at the spot.
In the Mountain West, Boise State managed to upset Fresno State on the blue field, which for all intents and purposes, ends the Bulldogs potential bid for the NY6. However, San Diego State somehow lost to UNLV (current power ranking = 111/130), so the Bulldogs are still a very safe bet to win the West Division. In the Mountain Division, Utah State is continuing to roll. But, Boise's win this week (which was not expected) means that the Boise-Utah State game in two weeks will decide the division crown. As the game is also in Boise, this race is now 50-50 again after skewing severely towards the Aggies for most of the season.
In other action, Buffalo (9-1) and UAB (9-1) continued their wining ways in the MAC and C-USA.
And finally:
If the Season Ended Today... That Would Be Weird.
With one additional week of data, I will update my conference and NY6 picks slightly:
ACC: Clemson over Pitt
Big Ten: Michigan over Northwestern
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Big 12: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Pac 12: Washington State over Utah
Just like last week, I have Notre Dame winning out, and UCF stumbling vs. Cincinnati. The AAC tie-breaker could get weird, but after Fresno State's loss this week, I am going to go ahead and pick Cincinnati to win the AAC and earn the NY6 berth, honestly without thinking about it too hard. So, my updated NY6 picks are:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Skunk-bears
Orange Bow: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Washington State vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Peach Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Florida
I only changed a few picks, as my model now likes Washington State to win the Pac 12. That leaves a vacuum for the final NY6 slot, and based on the most recent Playoff ranking, it seems that a 9-3 Florida squad would get the nod. For geographical considerations, I shifted the Florida-Cincinnati match-up to the Peach Bowl and pushed LSU-Oklahoma out west to the Fiesta Bowl.
As for MSU, the addition of Florida to the NY6 shakes up the bowl line-up in the SEC, and I now project Kentucky to play Penn State in the Citrus Bowl and MSU to draw Missouri in the Outback Bowl, although Mississippi State would also get strong consideration. It seems that the Outback Bowl prefers an SEC East team, but I am not sure how strong that preference really is.
That is all for this week. I will have my Week 12 Preview up soon. Until then, and as always, Go State, Beat the Huskers!
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