This may be a bit of an understatement, but that guy Bill Shakespeare came up with a lot of cool quotes. One of my favorites is from Act 5 of "the Scottish Play" (no need to risk a jinx here) where the title character goes off on a soliloquy about the seeming meaninglessness of life:
"Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
and then is heard no more. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
While this is a bit grim... or perhaps a lot grim, it resonates for me a bit this week. After all, MSU's poor players seem to be a shadow of what they could or should be this year. Each week they strut upon the stage for a few hours while us fans fret. We yell at the field or our 50" TVs and sometimes they make us furious. At the end of the day, what does it all mean? It's just a game right? (Incidentally, we are also often told tales at the water-cooler by idiots who are often wearing blue and yellow.)
Moreover this week, the outcome of MSU's game in Lincoln, Nebraska may not actually mean that much. Sure, MSU would rather go 8-4 than 7-5. But, based on my analysis, MSU will wind up in the Outback Bowl either way. As long as Penn State (7-3, ranked #14 and with 2 very likely wins remaining) gets the nod for the Citrus Bowl over Northwestern (6-4, ranked #22 with at least 1 more loss coming, unless they win the BTCG and make this moot anyway), MSU is headed to Tampa. The only other scenario is if Ohio State and/or Michigan fall out of the NY6, which is very unlikely, or Purdue at no better than 7-5 gets the Outback Bowl nod over MSU (also unlikely). MSU just needs to beat Rutgers next week, where I project them as a 25-point favorite. Even if Nebraska were to win, they already have 7 losses and that will likely keep them home for the holidays anyway. Meaningless...
While I believe all of these things to be true, I am sure MSU's players and coaches don't care. They want to win. As a fan, of course I want a win too, because winning is always feels better than losing. Sure, it is just a one fairly meaningless game in the middle of a slightly disappointing season. But, once that ball is kicked, all my Sound and Fury will 100% directed at rooting on the Green and White. Nebraska may be down as well, but winning in Lincoln is still hard and it will feel good if MSU can pull it out. It might not actually matter in the long run, but it still matters.
As for the game itself, MSU is a slim 2-point favorite, which translates to a 55% of victory for the Green and While. My spreadsheet is slightly more optimistic (-3.7) but not much. Stat-wise, I think there is a reason to also be a bit optimistic. Nebraska had a very rough start to the year and look much better now, but their overall stats do paint a picture. On offense, their stats look remarkably similar to Penn State: they have a good rushing game and on OK passing game and are in the Top 30 in total offense, yards per play. However, on defense there are some obvious problems. They seem to have a mediocre pass defense and a bad rush defense.
It is also notable that Troy State, who beat Nebraska back in September, on paper is the second best defense the Huskers have faced, behind Michigan. Meanwhile, the teams Nebraska has put up big points on recently have terrible defenses (namely, Illinois and Minnesota). But, the real question is can MSU's M*A*S*H* unit offense score points on literally anyone right now? If MSU is functional on offense, I think that will be fine, as long as the defense doesn't suddenly blow a tire. I tend to think that MSU has just enough firepower to deal with teams with mediocre to bad defenses. But, especially on the road, anything can happen. One thing is for sure, though: If things go poorly, there will be furious sounds emanating from the Dr. G&W household by mid-afternoon on Saturday.
National Overview
Here is my preview chart for Week 12. My algorithm likes only 5 teams to cover: Georgia (off scale), Iowa, Washington State, West Virginia, and North Texas. In general, this late in the season my math agrees with Vegas pretty well. There tend to be fewer crazy picks this time of year.
As for upsets, I like 8 total including SMU to win and UCF to lose in the AAC, Tennessee over Missouri, UCLA over USC, Minnesota over Northwestern, and Virginia Tech over Miami. My simulations suggests to expect 13.9±3.1 upsets over all.
Big Ten
Much like the rest of the college football world, there is not a lot of real compelling action in the Big Ten this week. Michigan and Ohio State are both playing to pad their resume for a potential final playoff push, but neither one is going to get much schedule help from either Indiana (+27.5) or at Maryland (+17.5). Meanwhile, Northwestern (-3.5) could even lose at Minnesota and even the following week vs. Illinois and they would still be only one win away from Pasadena. That almost sounds like a challenge...
So, for the remaining teams, it is pretty much just jockeying for Bowl position. Penn State looks to be in great shape for the Citrus Bowl or even the NY6 if they can get to 9-3. Getting win #8 this week at Rutgers (+26) looks to be a given for the Lions. Similarly, a 7th win for Iowa (-15.5) at Illinois is quite likely. That just leaves MSU at Nebraska (+2) which as mentioned might not even impact Bowl position at all, and the real fun Big Ten game of the week: Wisconsin at Purdue (-6). The Boilers actually need a win here to become bowl eligible, or the game next week in Bloomington could be double, double, toil and trouble for the gold and black. Meanwhile, Wisconsin could get to 7 wins, but the various no-repeat bowl rules mean the Gator / Taxslayer Bowl is likely their ceiling anyway.
SEC
The SEC divisional races were decided in Week 10 and what's done cannot be undone. Moreover, as is their usual tradition, most of the SEC teams are prepping for their annual rivalry show-downs in the final weekend by doing some carbo-loading involving some sweet, sweet Group of Five or FCS cupcake action. It is sort of like Mardi Gras in November. A full 8 members out of 14 will be partying this weekend, while Tennessee (+5) will try to become bowl eligible vs. Missouri, Vandy (-2.5) will try to avoid a 7th loss vs. Ole Miss, and Mississippi State (-18.5) will try to avoid embarrassment vs. Arkansas.
As for the cupcake course, there are a pair of them they may not go down the hatch so easily. Kentucky (-13) has a chance to get to 9 regular season wins this year for the first time since the 1970s, but first they will need to get by Middle Tennessee State, the current leader of the Conference USA East Division. Speaking of C-USA, current West Division leader UAB has an even more interesting match-up at Texas A&M (-15.5). Neither of those spreads are quite as high as I would have expected, and UAB could even make a case for a NY6 bid with an upset. I am sure that it would be exciting for Middle Tennessee as well. I mean, when was the last time that University had a crazy upset over a ranked team in any sport? (.... Too soon?)
ACC
As for the ACC, so fair and foul a conference I have not seen. Things are pretty fair on the Atlantic Side. Clemson is clearly just way better than everyone else and having now clinched the division, they are just treading water. This week's busy work is exorcising the Duke Blue Devils (+27).
Meanwhile, the play in the Coastal Division has been down-right foul most of the year. As the smoke now clears, Pitt (-6) has a chance to lock up the division on the road at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are gunning for a bowl bid if they can pull off the upset. However, a loss might not actually hurt Pitt, considering that Virginia needs to win this week at Georgia Tech (-6) in order to avoid giving the crown to Pitt by default. The odds currently favor Pitt to lock up the division one way or the other this week. The other notable action is that Miami will try to get to 6 wins at Virginia Tech (+3), while Boston College will try to pad their resume at Florida State (+1).
Big 12
While the rest of the Power 5 world seems to be a bit on a break, it looks to be a crazy week on the Plains. Only one game is expected to be a blow-out and that is Kansas at Oklahoma (-34.5). But, the other 4 games all opened with spreads at 5 points or less. West Virginia is my current favorite to win the conference this year, but those odds would take a serious turn for the worse if the Moutainneers can't escape Stillwater and OK State (+5) with a "W."
But, the game-of-week in the Big 12 has to be Iowa State's visit to Austin to face the Longhorn's (-3). Both teams are still in position to slip into the 2-seed for the Big 12 Championship, but the loser will be out. Both West Virginia and Oklahoma will be watching this game with interest, as the winner will be in position to win a tie-breaker to jump the eventual loser of the following week's match-up of the league's top two teams. If they're smart, WVU will be cheering for Texas, while Oklahoma will by making furious sounds for Iowa State.
In the remaining two games, Baylor (+1) and Texas Tech (-4) will be trying to officially earn bowl eligibility vs TCU and at Kansas State, respectively.
Pac 12
The Pac 12 this season is where confusion hath made his masterpiece, especially in the South, where teams are both fighting for the division crown and somehow also just a bowl bid simultaneously. In principle, Arizona State controls their own destiny, but they will likely need to win out to claim the division title. This week the Sun Devils travel to Oregon (-4) which will not be easy. Meanwhile, Utah by my math has the best odds to win the title, as they can get to 6-3 with a win at Colorado (+7). If the Vegas spreads hold up, the Utes will wrap up the Division this weekend.
Things are a bit more clear up North. Washington (-31) should breeze by Oregon State this week and thus will set up the decisive match-up with Washington State next week in Pullman. The Cougars do host Arizona (+10) this week, but a loss would simply damage Wazzou's already slim shot at the Playoffs or a potential NY6 slot if they can't win the Apple Cup. On the other side of that equation, Arizona is hoping to pull off the upset in order to gain bowl eligibility and keep their very small odds to win the South intact.
It is also worth noting the "The Game" is this weekend as Stanford (-2) visits Berkeley. Both teams are already bowl eligible, so all that really is at stake is the question of who is the King of the Geeks. By contrast, USC (-5) will need to beat rival UCLA to get to 6 wins and secure a bowl slot. With Notre Dame coming to town soon an upset in the Rose Bowl (which my spreadsheet predicts) is likely to force the Trojans to stay in the box for the holidays.
Independents / Group of Five
The Irish are so close that they can taste it. If they can beat Syracuse (+10) this weekend in Yankee Stadium, they might just lock-up a playoff spot. Even if the Domers drop the ball in L.A. next weekend, an 11-1 record might still be enough. Honestly, I don't think the Orange are that good, and I do not expect a problem. Then again, I feel like I had that same thought back in March (.... yeah, too soon.)
In the Group of Five, the last stand for the AAC East will take place in Orlando as Cincinnati squares off the the "defending national champions" Central Florida (-8). If the Knights win, they clinch the division. However, if Cincinnati wins, it is likely that would create a 3-team tie at 7-1 between UCF, Cincy, and Temple. However, if I read the tie-breaker rules correctly, Temple's poor non-conference showing would knock them out, leaving Cincinnati as the champ, assuming they could get by East Carolina (who is dismal) next week. I must admit, I like a little variety in the Group of Five NY6 spot, so I am actively rooting for UCF to lose. No offense, guys.
On the West side of the AAC, Houston, SMU, and Tulane all started the week tied up at 4-2 in conference play. Houston already took out Tulane by 31 points on Thursday evening, but SMU still owns a tiebreaker over the Cougars. That said, SMU is an 8-point dog to Memphis in their own house this week. So, things could get messy...
Outside of the AAC, attrition has really caught up to the rest of the G5 leagues. In the Mountain West, Utah State is still a viable candidate at 9-1 and they are likely to move to 10-1 after traveling to Colorado State (+26) this week. But, the Aggies still need to beat Boise State next weekend to win the division, let alone beating Fresno State (most likely) in the Championship Game.
Outside of Utah State, alternative candidates are sparse. Buffalo had a shot out of the MAC, but their dreams (and their team) got crushed by Ohio on Wednesday night, so they are likely out. That leaves 9-1 UAB as the only other G5 teams with less than 2 losses. As I mentioned above, if the Blazers can find a way to beat Texas A&M, they just might become a viable alternative candidate for that NY6 spot... as long as we don't think too hard about the fact that there sole loss was to Coastal Carolina... by 23 points. Hey, what happens in September, stays in September. Am I right?
That is all for this week. Enjoy the remaining action and don't forget to start defrosting your turkey. As always, Go State, Beat the Huskers!
"Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
and then is heard no more. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
While this is a bit grim... or perhaps a lot grim, it resonates for me a bit this week. After all, MSU's poor players seem to be a shadow of what they could or should be this year. Each week they strut upon the stage for a few hours while us fans fret. We yell at the field or our 50" TVs and sometimes they make us furious. At the end of the day, what does it all mean? It's just a game right? (Incidentally, we are also often told tales at the water-cooler by idiots who are often wearing blue and yellow.)
Moreover this week, the outcome of MSU's game in Lincoln, Nebraska may not actually mean that much. Sure, MSU would rather go 8-4 than 7-5. But, based on my analysis, MSU will wind up in the Outback Bowl either way. As long as Penn State (7-3, ranked #14 and with 2 very likely wins remaining) gets the nod for the Citrus Bowl over Northwestern (6-4, ranked #22 with at least 1 more loss coming, unless they win the BTCG and make this moot anyway), MSU is headed to Tampa. The only other scenario is if Ohio State and/or Michigan fall out of the NY6, which is very unlikely, or Purdue at no better than 7-5 gets the Outback Bowl nod over MSU (also unlikely). MSU just needs to beat Rutgers next week, where I project them as a 25-point favorite. Even if Nebraska were to win, they already have 7 losses and that will likely keep them home for the holidays anyway. Meaningless...
While I believe all of these things to be true, I am sure MSU's players and coaches don't care. They want to win. As a fan, of course I want a win too, because winning is always feels better than losing. Sure, it is just a one fairly meaningless game in the middle of a slightly disappointing season. But, once that ball is kicked, all my Sound and Fury will 100% directed at rooting on the Green and White. Nebraska may be down as well, but winning in Lincoln is still hard and it will feel good if MSU can pull it out. It might not actually matter in the long run, but it still matters.
As for the game itself, MSU is a slim 2-point favorite, which translates to a 55% of victory for the Green and While. My spreadsheet is slightly more optimistic (-3.7) but not much. Stat-wise, I think there is a reason to also be a bit optimistic. Nebraska had a very rough start to the year and look much better now, but their overall stats do paint a picture. On offense, their stats look remarkably similar to Penn State: they have a good rushing game and on OK passing game and are in the Top 30 in total offense, yards per play. However, on defense there are some obvious problems. They seem to have a mediocre pass defense and a bad rush defense.
It is also notable that Troy State, who beat Nebraska back in September, on paper is the second best defense the Huskers have faced, behind Michigan. Meanwhile, the teams Nebraska has put up big points on recently have terrible defenses (namely, Illinois and Minnesota). But, the real question is can MSU's M*A*S*H* unit offense score points on literally anyone right now? If MSU is functional on offense, I think that will be fine, as long as the defense doesn't suddenly blow a tire. I tend to think that MSU has just enough firepower to deal with teams with mediocre to bad defenses. But, especially on the road, anything can happen. One thing is for sure, though: If things go poorly, there will be furious sounds emanating from the Dr. G&W household by mid-afternoon on Saturday.
National Overview
Here is my preview chart for Week 12. My algorithm likes only 5 teams to cover: Georgia (off scale), Iowa, Washington State, West Virginia, and North Texas. In general, this late in the season my math agrees with Vegas pretty well. There tend to be fewer crazy picks this time of year.
As for upsets, I like 8 total including SMU to win and UCF to lose in the AAC, Tennessee over Missouri, UCLA over USC, Minnesota over Northwestern, and Virginia Tech over Miami. My simulations suggests to expect 13.9±3.1 upsets over all.
Big Ten
Much like the rest of the college football world, there is not a lot of real compelling action in the Big Ten this week. Michigan and Ohio State are both playing to pad their resume for a potential final playoff push, but neither one is going to get much schedule help from either Indiana (+27.5) or at Maryland (+17.5). Meanwhile, Northwestern (-3.5) could even lose at Minnesota and even the following week vs. Illinois and they would still be only one win away from Pasadena. That almost sounds like a challenge...
So, for the remaining teams, it is pretty much just jockeying for Bowl position. Penn State looks to be in great shape for the Citrus Bowl or even the NY6 if they can get to 9-3. Getting win #8 this week at Rutgers (+26) looks to be a given for the Lions. Similarly, a 7th win for Iowa (-15.5) at Illinois is quite likely. That just leaves MSU at Nebraska (+2) which as mentioned might not even impact Bowl position at all, and the real fun Big Ten game of the week: Wisconsin at Purdue (-6). The Boilers actually need a win here to become bowl eligible, or the game next week in Bloomington could be double, double, toil and trouble for the gold and black. Meanwhile, Wisconsin could get to 7 wins, but the various no-repeat bowl rules mean the Gator / Taxslayer Bowl is likely their ceiling anyway.
SEC
The SEC divisional races were decided in Week 10 and what's done cannot be undone. Moreover, as is their usual tradition, most of the SEC teams are prepping for their annual rivalry show-downs in the final weekend by doing some carbo-loading involving some sweet, sweet Group of Five or FCS cupcake action. It is sort of like Mardi Gras in November. A full 8 members out of 14 will be partying this weekend, while Tennessee (+5) will try to become bowl eligible vs. Missouri, Vandy (-2.5) will try to avoid a 7th loss vs. Ole Miss, and Mississippi State (-18.5) will try to avoid embarrassment vs. Arkansas.
As for the cupcake course, there are a pair of them they may not go down the hatch so easily. Kentucky (-13) has a chance to get to 9 regular season wins this year for the first time since the 1970s, but first they will need to get by Middle Tennessee State, the current leader of the Conference USA East Division. Speaking of C-USA, current West Division leader UAB has an even more interesting match-up at Texas A&M (-15.5). Neither of those spreads are quite as high as I would have expected, and UAB could even make a case for a NY6 bid with an upset. I am sure that it would be exciting for Middle Tennessee as well. I mean, when was the last time that University had a crazy upset over a ranked team in any sport? (.... Too soon?)
ACC
As for the ACC, so fair and foul a conference I have not seen. Things are pretty fair on the Atlantic Side. Clemson is clearly just way better than everyone else and having now clinched the division, they are just treading water. This week's busy work is exorcising the Duke Blue Devils (+27).
Meanwhile, the play in the Coastal Division has been down-right foul most of the year. As the smoke now clears, Pitt (-6) has a chance to lock up the division on the road at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are gunning for a bowl bid if they can pull off the upset. However, a loss might not actually hurt Pitt, considering that Virginia needs to win this week at Georgia Tech (-6) in order to avoid giving the crown to Pitt by default. The odds currently favor Pitt to lock up the division one way or the other this week. The other notable action is that Miami will try to get to 6 wins at Virginia Tech (+3), while Boston College will try to pad their resume at Florida State (+1).
Big 12
While the rest of the Power 5 world seems to be a bit on a break, it looks to be a crazy week on the Plains. Only one game is expected to be a blow-out and that is Kansas at Oklahoma (-34.5). But, the other 4 games all opened with spreads at 5 points or less. West Virginia is my current favorite to win the conference this year, but those odds would take a serious turn for the worse if the Moutainneers can't escape Stillwater and OK State (+5) with a "W."
But, the game-of-week in the Big 12 has to be Iowa State's visit to Austin to face the Longhorn's (-3). Both teams are still in position to slip into the 2-seed for the Big 12 Championship, but the loser will be out. Both West Virginia and Oklahoma will be watching this game with interest, as the winner will be in position to win a tie-breaker to jump the eventual loser of the following week's match-up of the league's top two teams. If they're smart, WVU will be cheering for Texas, while Oklahoma will by making furious sounds for Iowa State.
In the remaining two games, Baylor (+1) and Texas Tech (-4) will be trying to officially earn bowl eligibility vs TCU and at Kansas State, respectively.
Pac 12
The Pac 12 this season is where confusion hath made his masterpiece, especially in the South, where teams are both fighting for the division crown and somehow also just a bowl bid simultaneously. In principle, Arizona State controls their own destiny, but they will likely need to win out to claim the division title. This week the Sun Devils travel to Oregon (-4) which will not be easy. Meanwhile, Utah by my math has the best odds to win the title, as they can get to 6-3 with a win at Colorado (+7). If the Vegas spreads hold up, the Utes will wrap up the Division this weekend.
Things are a bit more clear up North. Washington (-31) should breeze by Oregon State this week and thus will set up the decisive match-up with Washington State next week in Pullman. The Cougars do host Arizona (+10) this week, but a loss would simply damage Wazzou's already slim shot at the Playoffs or a potential NY6 slot if they can't win the Apple Cup. On the other side of that equation, Arizona is hoping to pull off the upset in order to gain bowl eligibility and keep their very small odds to win the South intact.
It is also worth noting the "The Game" is this weekend as Stanford (-2) visits Berkeley. Both teams are already bowl eligible, so all that really is at stake is the question of who is the King of the Geeks. By contrast, USC (-5) will need to beat rival UCLA to get to 6 wins and secure a bowl slot. With Notre Dame coming to town soon an upset in the Rose Bowl (which my spreadsheet predicts) is likely to force the Trojans to stay in the box for the holidays.
Independents / Group of Five
The Irish are so close that they can taste it. If they can beat Syracuse (+10) this weekend in Yankee Stadium, they might just lock-up a playoff spot. Even if the Domers drop the ball in L.A. next weekend, an 11-1 record might still be enough. Honestly, I don't think the Orange are that good, and I do not expect a problem. Then again, I feel like I had that same thought back in March (.... yeah, too soon.)
In the Group of Five, the last stand for the AAC East will take place in Orlando as Cincinnati squares off the the "defending national champions" Central Florida (-8). If the Knights win, they clinch the division. However, if Cincinnati wins, it is likely that would create a 3-team tie at 7-1 between UCF, Cincy, and Temple. However, if I read the tie-breaker rules correctly, Temple's poor non-conference showing would knock them out, leaving Cincinnati as the champ, assuming they could get by East Carolina (who is dismal) next week. I must admit, I like a little variety in the Group of Five NY6 spot, so I am actively rooting for UCF to lose. No offense, guys.
On the West side of the AAC, Houston, SMU, and Tulane all started the week tied up at 4-2 in conference play. Houston already took out Tulane by 31 points on Thursday evening, but SMU still owns a tiebreaker over the Cougars. That said, SMU is an 8-point dog to Memphis in their own house this week. So, things could get messy...
Outside of the AAC, attrition has really caught up to the rest of the G5 leagues. In the Mountain West, Utah State is still a viable candidate at 9-1 and they are likely to move to 10-1 after traveling to Colorado State (+26) this week. But, the Aggies still need to beat Boise State next weekend to win the division, let alone beating Fresno State (most likely) in the Championship Game.
Outside of Utah State, alternative candidates are sparse. Buffalo had a shot out of the MAC, but their dreams (and their team) got crushed by Ohio on Wednesday night, so they are likely out. That leaves 9-1 UAB as the only other G5 teams with less than 2 losses. As I mentioned above, if the Blazers can find a way to beat Texas A&M, they just might become a viable alternative candidate for that NY6 spot... as long as we don't think too hard about the fact that there sole loss was to Coastal Carolina... by 23 points. Hey, what happens in September, stays in September. Am I right?
That is all for this week. Enjoy the remaining action and don't forget to start defrosting your turkey. As always, Go State, Beat the Huskers!
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