Well folks, it has been an interesting season of twists and turns. It started with hope and optimism, but that quickly morphed into frustration, anger, and disappointment. It wasn't all bad, though, as the Spartans did give us a few exciting moments. There was the home win over Purdue, the home win over, at the time, under-rated Utah Sate, and road wins over Indiana, Maryland, and of course, Penn State. Even if we look at MSU's losses this year, it is not like the Spartans were completed overwhelmed. Consider this:
In Week 2 at Arizona State, MSU led 13-6 with 9 minutes to play
In Week 6 vs. Big Ten West Champ, Northwestern, MSU led 19-14 with 1 minute left in the 3rd quarter
In Week 8 vs Michigan with a skeleton crew, MSU was all tied up at 7 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter
In Week 10 vs Ohio State, MSU trailed only 7-6 with 1 minute left in the 3rd quarter
In Week 11 at Nebraska, the game was tied 6-6 with 9 minutes to play.
MSU has been in every single game this year. Yes, they haven't finished in many of them, but it would not take too many good bounces here or there (or just a lack of bad bounces) for this team to have 8 or 9 wins already, even considering the unprecedented number of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Things are not nearly as bad as they seem at 6-5.
But, it is what it is. This week, MSU faces the absolute worst team in the Big Ten (and likely in the Power 5) at home, on Senior day. Rutgers is bad on both sides of the ball. MSU is bad on one side of the ball. The spread opened at a surprisingly high -28 for MSU, which translates to a 97.6% chance that MSU wins.
Now, historically, this type of upset is not out of the question. In fact, just last year Iowa State upset Oklahoma as a ~26 point dog. This type of event happens about once every 2 years. So, yeah, this could be an epic disaster. I think it is totally reasonable to ask how MSU is going to score 28 points, let alone more than that. I am also quite sure that almost no MSU fan would say that they are ~98% sure MSU wins on Saturday. But, chances are things are going to be OK, and MSU will finish the season at 7-5.
If this happens, I still say MSU will get the Outback Bowl bid and face a team like Missouri. Of course, weird things could still happen that could knock MSU all the way down to the Redbox bowl in Santa Clara, CA, but I think those events are unlikely. Now, one could argue that MSU could use a softer opponent. But I think that given a chance to heal for a month, MSU has a good shot to beat an SEC opponent like Missouri (or Kentucky or Mississippi State) on January 1st. It would be a nice way to build some positive momentum for 2019. I still think the future looks bright.
National Overview
Here is my prediction chart for Week 13. Once again, my data is finally starting to converge a bit more with Vegas, so I only have 7 teams to cover, including Georgia, Kentucky, Iowa, and Florida.
As for upsets, My algorithm also doesn't have too much to say. I only have four, including a big one (West Virginia over Oklahoma), while the FPI only likes 2. However, don't expect a quiet week, as my simulation suggests to expect 15.4±3.2 upsets total.
I think that's everything in the Big Ten this week, right?
Wait, what is that sound? I seem to hear it coming from the south and east. I think maybe it's coming from Ann Arbor or possibly even Columbus. I can't quite place it... wait a minute... is that... disco?
Yes, it's that magical time of the year when the Wolverines and the Buckeyes take to the field for their annual homage to football seasons past. It's sort of like watching reruns of That 70's Show. But, I mean, who can really blame them? After all, think of all the amazing things that happened in the 1970s
Amazing fashion and music:
Bell-bottoms! Disco! I can't believe those two things aren't still popular... and the 1970s was probably the last decade when normal people wore clashing colors like yellow and blue together at the same time and the general public didn't think that they was something deeply wrong with them.
Tremendous Air Quality:
We had smog and particulates in most major cities. Kids these days have weak lungs. They could really use more of a challenge to toughen them up.
Political Drama:
One word: Watergate. How fun was that! Also, War!
The Oil Crisis and Inflation:
I am just saying that if I had to wait in line at the gas station for 2 hours, I would have a lot more time to relax on social media and message boards.
and, of course
Big Ten Football:
What an amazing decade for the Big Ten. It was a period of unparalleled bowl accomplishments, such as the conference winning a grand total of five Bowl Games! (Three of which were by Purdue and Indiana). Of course the big dogs of the conference were Michigan and Ohio State, who met each November to decide which one of the two power house teams would get to travel out west to lose in the Rose Bowl. Both teams were often weary, often shouting, "I will survive!" after the gauntlet of unranked conference foes, but they always brought their best effort for the The Game at the end of the conference season. It was magical. In a testament to the true mediocrity on display in that fine decade, the Buckeyes held an oh-so slight 5-4-1 advantage in the "Ten Year War."
Wow, I get butterflies in my stomach just thinking about it... or is that nausea? Wait, no, that is definitely nausea...
But, that brings us all back to 2018, where this weekend Michigan (-3) will travel to Columbus with a trip to Indianapolis and the Big Ten Championship Game on the line and a chance to pick up their 3rd win over the Buckeyes this century. Based on the opening spread, OSU actually has a 42% chance to win this game.
On its face, that sound ridiculous, as, let's be honest, the Buckeyes actually kind of suck. They must be the worst 10-1 team in the past 20 years. But, they still have an awful lot of talented dudes on that roster, they are at home, and it it is at least plausible to predict that the Buckeyes will cycle up to play their best game of the year. It is also at least plausible that the Wolverines may not actually be as good as they think that they are. After all, I am not sure how many non-injured QBs they have actually faced this year that weren't MAC level. Then, there is the pucker factor. Michigan hasn't truly won anything in over a decade. They have literally not been here before. As a program, they almost never actually win the big game. Can they really pull this off? Or, can the Buckeyes be Super Freaks for one day and Turn the Beat Around?
At the end of the day, odds are that Michigan wins and they will be insufferable. In this Lance Dance of the 2018 Big Ten regular season, they Won't Stop Until They Get Enough points to win, and they will be off to Funkytown next week. They will experience Good Times and they will believe that they are Hot Stuff. Their quest for the Playoffs will Stay Alive.
So, is this how it's going to be from now on? Should we expect a new Ten Year War to be right around the corner? Nah... Despite the thought in Ann Arbor that this Love Will Last Forever, much like the Disco Era, it's probably just a fad.
SEC
Now, back to the 21st Century. While the SEC race has been over for a while now, there is still a bit left to play for down south. For several teams at the top of the standings, not a lot of drama is expected. Alabama (-24) and Georgia (-17) are both huge favorites over rivals Auburn and Georgia Tech and both teams are at home. Kentucky (-17) has to go on the road to Louisville, but the 2-9 Cardinals are not expected to put up much of a fight.
But, there are three contests that definitely look to have an impact on the overall Bowl and NY6 picture. First, right now LSU is in very good shape to secure a spot in the NY6 anywhere from the Sugar Bowl to Peach Bowl or even the Fiesta Bowl. But, they will likely need to get out of College Station with a win first. Texas A&M is actually a 2-point favorite. Also a surprise is the tight spread for Florida's rivalry game at Florida State (+3). The 'Noles would qualify for a bowl with a win, while the Gators are also hoping for a NY6 invite.
The remaining notable game is a bowl eligibility play-in match between Tennessee and Vanderbilt (-3.5) in Nashville. It might also be worth watching Arkansas at Missouri (-19.5) for a some possible bowl opponent scouting. As for Mississippi State (-8.5) at Ole Miss, no one cares; go suck an egg.
ACC
Similar to the SEC, the ACC race is over, and teams are essentially just trying to upgrade their bowl destinations, if possible. Clemson is obviously an overwhelming favorite to make the playoffs, and I don't think even South Carolina (+25) would Gamecock block the Tigers from the Orange Bowl with an (unlikely) upset. As for Coastal Division champ Pitt, they travel to Miami (-5.5) this week and are underdogs, but... the result kinda doesn't matter.
As for the rest of the conference, there are three teams that could potentially play themselves into a bowl. Florida State (mentioned above) is one (+3 vs. Florida). Wake Forest is another, but they are 12.5-point dogs at Duke. The final team is Virginia Tech. While the Hokies sit at 4-6 due to a Hurricane cancellation in September, and they are a 4-point home-dog to Virginia this weekend. Congrats, by the way, to anyone who predictions the Cavs would be favored in this game back in August. If the Hokies do win, in a weird twist, they will play Marshall (who also had a game cancelled) on December 1st. Here's the real fun part: If VA Tech loses to Virginia, the game vs. Marshall on 12/01 is cancelled and Marshall gets to keep $100,000. I am assuming the Hokies will just leave it on the nightstand on their way out.
Big 12
One of the most impactful games of the weekend is the the Big 12 showdown of Oklahoma at West Virginia (+2). There is a lot on the line as the winner will get the #1 seed for next week's Big 12 Championship game, where they will face Texas (assuming the Longhorns can beat Kansas [+15]). Oklahoma is favored, but my spreadsheet insists WVU is good and is going to win, by my math by over a TD. If Oklahoma does lose, they will still be 10-2 and a likely candidate for the NY6 anyway. Since the Big 12 Championship Game winner also is guaranteed a NY6 spot, this game will effect other teams (like Florida and Penn State) in their quest to slide into the NY6 with a 9-3 record.
In the middle of the Big 12, a lot of bowl placement should get sorted out. Baylor faces Texas Tech (-7) on a neutral field. The winner gets a bowl. The loser gets nothing. In the remaining two games, you have a 6-win team trying to improve their bowl standings vs. a 5-team team just trying to qualify. In this regard, Kansas State (+14) is a long-shot for a bowl at Iowa State, while TCU (+4.5) has a slightly better shot at 6 wins as a host to Oklahoma State.
Pac 12
Much like the Big 12, the Pac 12 has a great match-up that will impact the broader field of college football. The Pac 12 South has been decided and the champs, Utah, are celebrating by playing BYU (+13.5). But, the North has yet to be decided, and it all comes down to the Apple Cup as Washington travels to Washington State (-3). The winner will play Utah for a shot at the Rose Bowl. I must admit I am a bit surprised that the Cougars are favored, even though they are at home, but my spreadsheet concurs (-5.9). If Wazzou does win, the Pac 12 will get one team in the NY6. But, if the Huskies win, I think Washington State at 10-2 would make a lot of sense for the Fiesta Bowl.
Elsewhere in conference play, the action is a bit sparse as most teams have either clinched a bowl or have been eliminated from consideration. Arizona (+3) has the best shot to get their 6th win and make a bowl as they will play host to Arizona State. Colorado still has a chance as well, but they will need to win a road game at Cal (-11). Cal, along with Stanford, Oregon, and Arizona State are all over the 6 win threshold.
Independents / Group of Five
One team I did not mention in the Pac 12 is USC. The Trojans are sitting at 5-6 and they can still make a bowl game, as long as they can beat Notre Dame (-8) this weekend in L.A. Obviously, if the Irish get this win, they are in the clubhouse with an invite to the Playoffs certainly in hand. The only question would be if 11-1 would still be good enough in case they lose. My gut feeling is that they would still sneak in, but it would depend on the results of the other games (like the SEC Championship Game) to some extent.
In the Group of Five, the action is winding down. In the AAC, UCF has clinched the East Division and just needs to win the AAC title game to secure their 2nd straight NY6 bid. Even if they lose at USF (+13.5) this weekend, they likely would still get in. Their last hurdle will be defeating the winner of Friday's game featuring Houston at Memphis (-8).
If the Memphis-Houston winner can knock out UCF, all eyes will turn to the Mountain West. Fresno State already has locked in a berth to the Mountain West title game where they will face the winner of Saturday night's battle on the blue field between our old friends Utah State and Boise State (-3). Either way, my math favors Fresno State to win the conference... but my gut says Boise pulls this one out in the end. Either way, the Mountain West Champ will be at least 10-2 and that likely will be enough to secure the NY6 bid if UCF falters.
As such, the remaining games in the MAC, C-USA, and Sunbelt will not impact the national picture. But, for fun I can tell you that I expect Buffalo, UAB, and App State to each win their conference.
That is all for this last regular season preview of the year. I will be back early next week, post-tryptophan coma, for my final regular season recap. Until then, enjoy the holiday and, as always, Go State, Beat Rutgers!
Bowl Footnote:
As one final thought, here is one tidbit of data. Right now, I count a total of 71 teams with at least 6 wins. There are a total of 78 slots in 39 FBS bowl games. That currently leaves 7 open slots. However, there are 3 games this weekend between 5-6 teams (Purdue at Indiana, Tennessee at Vanderbilt and Texas Tech vs. Baylor). So, 3 of those spots will get filled automatically, leaving only 4 open spots. But, there are a total of 17 teams that could get to 6-6 by the end of the season. Based on the spreads in this final week, I project that 83 teams will get to at least six wins. So, the bottom line is that I do not expect any 5-7 teams to make a bowl this year.
In Week 2 at Arizona State, MSU led 13-6 with 9 minutes to play
In Week 6 vs. Big Ten West Champ, Northwestern, MSU led 19-14 with 1 minute left in the 3rd quarter
In Week 8 vs Michigan with a skeleton crew, MSU was all tied up at 7 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter
In Week 10 vs Ohio State, MSU trailed only 7-6 with 1 minute left in the 3rd quarter
In Week 11 at Nebraska, the game was tied 6-6 with 9 minutes to play.
MSU has been in every single game this year. Yes, they haven't finished in many of them, but it would not take too many good bounces here or there (or just a lack of bad bounces) for this team to have 8 or 9 wins already, even considering the unprecedented number of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Things are not nearly as bad as they seem at 6-5.
But, it is what it is. This week, MSU faces the absolute worst team in the Big Ten (and likely in the Power 5) at home, on Senior day. Rutgers is bad on both sides of the ball. MSU is bad on one side of the ball. The spread opened at a surprisingly high -28 for MSU, which translates to a 97.6% chance that MSU wins.
Now, historically, this type of upset is not out of the question. In fact, just last year Iowa State upset Oklahoma as a ~26 point dog. This type of event happens about once every 2 years. So, yeah, this could be an epic disaster. I think it is totally reasonable to ask how MSU is going to score 28 points, let alone more than that. I am also quite sure that almost no MSU fan would say that they are ~98% sure MSU wins on Saturday. But, chances are things are going to be OK, and MSU will finish the season at 7-5.
If this happens, I still say MSU will get the Outback Bowl bid and face a team like Missouri. Of course, weird things could still happen that could knock MSU all the way down to the Redbox bowl in Santa Clara, CA, but I think those events are unlikely. Now, one could argue that MSU could use a softer opponent. But I think that given a chance to heal for a month, MSU has a good shot to beat an SEC opponent like Missouri (or Kentucky or Mississippi State) on January 1st. It would be a nice way to build some positive momentum for 2019. I still think the future looks bright.
National Overview
Here is my prediction chart for Week 13. Once again, my data is finally starting to converge a bit more with Vegas, so I only have 7 teams to cover, including Georgia, Kentucky, Iowa, and Florida.
As for upsets, My algorithm also doesn't have too much to say. I only have four, including a big one (West Virginia over Oklahoma), while the FPI only likes 2. However, don't expect a quiet week, as my simulation suggests to expect 15.4±3.2 upsets total.
Big Ten
In most places in the Midwest, we can expect a pretty normal football weekend, with a few notable match-ups. The teams in the middle of the pack will attempt to shore up their bowl position and in most cases try to beat a rival doing it. Big Ten West champs Northwestern will have Roses on their minds as they square off against Illinois (+18) in Evanston. But, most likely they will be On Holiday in San Diego come December. Penn State (-14) draws Maryland in State College, where a win would likely solidify a NY6 or at least a Citrus Bowl bid. On the flip side Maryland could still get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility with the upset.
Iowa will try to get to 8 wins on Senior day Iowa City vs. Nebraska (+7.5), while Wisconsin will try to do the same vs. Minnesota (+10). Right now, I expect Wisconsin will get the better bowl of the two, but an upset to either team would clarify the picture a bit. Finally, the most fun game looks to be Purdue's trip to Bloomington to face Indiana (+4). Both teams are sitting at 5-6 and the winner will not only get a cool bucket, they will get more practice time and a chance to embarrass themselves on National TV over the holidays.
I think that's everything in the Big Ten this week, right?
Wait, what is that sound? I seem to hear it coming from the south and east. I think maybe it's coming from Ann Arbor or possibly even Columbus. I can't quite place it... wait a minute... is that... disco?
Yes, it's that magical time of the year when the Wolverines and the Buckeyes take to the field for their annual homage to football seasons past. It's sort of like watching reruns of That 70's Show. But, I mean, who can really blame them? After all, think of all the amazing things that happened in the 1970s
Amazing fashion and music:
Bell-bottoms! Disco! I can't believe those two things aren't still popular... and the 1970s was probably the last decade when normal people wore clashing colors like yellow and blue together at the same time and the general public didn't think that they was something deeply wrong with them.
Tremendous Air Quality:
We had smog and particulates in most major cities. Kids these days have weak lungs. They could really use more of a challenge to toughen them up.
Political Drama:
One word: Watergate. How fun was that! Also, War!
The Oil Crisis and Inflation:
I am just saying that if I had to wait in line at the gas station for 2 hours, I would have a lot more time to relax on social media and message boards.
and, of course
Big Ten Football:
What an amazing decade for the Big Ten. It was a period of unparalleled bowl accomplishments, such as the conference winning a grand total of five Bowl Games! (Three of which were by Purdue and Indiana). Of course the big dogs of the conference were Michigan and Ohio State, who met each November to decide which one of the two power house teams would get to travel out west to lose in the Rose Bowl. Both teams were often weary, often shouting, "I will survive!" after the gauntlet of unranked conference foes, but they always brought their best effort for the The Game at the end of the conference season. It was magical. In a testament to the true mediocrity on display in that fine decade, the Buckeyes held an oh-so slight 5-4-1 advantage in the "Ten Year War."
Wow, I get butterflies in my stomach just thinking about it... or is that nausea? Wait, no, that is definitely nausea...
But, that brings us all back to 2018, where this weekend Michigan (-3) will travel to Columbus with a trip to Indianapolis and the Big Ten Championship Game on the line and a chance to pick up their 3rd win over the Buckeyes this century. Based on the opening spread, OSU actually has a 42% chance to win this game.
On its face, that sound ridiculous, as, let's be honest, the Buckeyes actually kind of suck. They must be the worst 10-1 team in the past 20 years. But, they still have an awful lot of talented dudes on that roster, they are at home, and it it is at least plausible to predict that the Buckeyes will cycle up to play their best game of the year. It is also at least plausible that the Wolverines may not actually be as good as they think that they are. After all, I am not sure how many non-injured QBs they have actually faced this year that weren't MAC level. Then, there is the pucker factor. Michigan hasn't truly won anything in over a decade. They have literally not been here before. As a program, they almost never actually win the big game. Can they really pull this off? Or, can the Buckeyes be Super Freaks for one day and Turn the Beat Around?
At the end of the day, odds are that Michigan wins and they will be insufferable. In this Lance Dance of the 2018 Big Ten regular season, they Won't Stop Until They Get Enough points to win, and they will be off to Funkytown next week. They will experience Good Times and they will believe that they are Hot Stuff. Their quest for the Playoffs will Stay Alive.
So, is this how it's going to be from now on? Should we expect a new Ten Year War to be right around the corner? Nah... Despite the thought in Ann Arbor that this Love Will Last Forever, much like the Disco Era, it's probably just a fad.
SEC
Now, back to the 21st Century. While the SEC race has been over for a while now, there is still a bit left to play for down south. For several teams at the top of the standings, not a lot of drama is expected. Alabama (-24) and Georgia (-17) are both huge favorites over rivals Auburn and Georgia Tech and both teams are at home. Kentucky (-17) has to go on the road to Louisville, but the 2-9 Cardinals are not expected to put up much of a fight.
But, there are three contests that definitely look to have an impact on the overall Bowl and NY6 picture. First, right now LSU is in very good shape to secure a spot in the NY6 anywhere from the Sugar Bowl to Peach Bowl or even the Fiesta Bowl. But, they will likely need to get out of College Station with a win first. Texas A&M is actually a 2-point favorite. Also a surprise is the tight spread for Florida's rivalry game at Florida State (+3). The 'Noles would qualify for a bowl with a win, while the Gators are also hoping for a NY6 invite.
The remaining notable game is a bowl eligibility play-in match between Tennessee and Vanderbilt (-3.5) in Nashville. It might also be worth watching Arkansas at Missouri (-19.5) for a some possible bowl opponent scouting. As for Mississippi State (-8.5) at Ole Miss, no one cares; go suck an egg.
ACC
Similar to the SEC, the ACC race is over, and teams are essentially just trying to upgrade their bowl destinations, if possible. Clemson is obviously an overwhelming favorite to make the playoffs, and I don't think even South Carolina (+25) would Gamecock block the Tigers from the Orange Bowl with an (unlikely) upset. As for Coastal Division champ Pitt, they travel to Miami (-5.5) this week and are underdogs, but... the result kinda doesn't matter.
As for the rest of the conference, there are three teams that could potentially play themselves into a bowl. Florida State (mentioned above) is one (+3 vs. Florida). Wake Forest is another, but they are 12.5-point dogs at Duke. The final team is Virginia Tech. While the Hokies sit at 4-6 due to a Hurricane cancellation in September, and they are a 4-point home-dog to Virginia this weekend. Congrats, by the way, to anyone who predictions the Cavs would be favored in this game back in August. If the Hokies do win, in a weird twist, they will play Marshall (who also had a game cancelled) on December 1st. Here's the real fun part: If VA Tech loses to Virginia, the game vs. Marshall on 12/01 is cancelled and Marshall gets to keep $100,000. I am assuming the Hokies will just leave it on the nightstand on their way out.
Big 12
One of the most impactful games of the weekend is the the Big 12 showdown of Oklahoma at West Virginia (+2). There is a lot on the line as the winner will get the #1 seed for next week's Big 12 Championship game, where they will face Texas (assuming the Longhorns can beat Kansas [+15]). Oklahoma is favored, but my spreadsheet insists WVU is good and is going to win, by my math by over a TD. If Oklahoma does lose, they will still be 10-2 and a likely candidate for the NY6 anyway. Since the Big 12 Championship Game winner also is guaranteed a NY6 spot, this game will effect other teams (like Florida and Penn State) in their quest to slide into the NY6 with a 9-3 record.
In the middle of the Big 12, a lot of bowl placement should get sorted out. Baylor faces Texas Tech (-7) on a neutral field. The winner gets a bowl. The loser gets nothing. In the remaining two games, you have a 6-win team trying to improve their bowl standings vs. a 5-team team just trying to qualify. In this regard, Kansas State (+14) is a long-shot for a bowl at Iowa State, while TCU (+4.5) has a slightly better shot at 6 wins as a host to Oklahoma State.
Pac 12
Much like the Big 12, the Pac 12 has a great match-up that will impact the broader field of college football. The Pac 12 South has been decided and the champs, Utah, are celebrating by playing BYU (+13.5). But, the North has yet to be decided, and it all comes down to the Apple Cup as Washington travels to Washington State (-3). The winner will play Utah for a shot at the Rose Bowl. I must admit I am a bit surprised that the Cougars are favored, even though they are at home, but my spreadsheet concurs (-5.9). If Wazzou does win, the Pac 12 will get one team in the NY6. But, if the Huskies win, I think Washington State at 10-2 would make a lot of sense for the Fiesta Bowl.
Elsewhere in conference play, the action is a bit sparse as most teams have either clinched a bowl or have been eliminated from consideration. Arizona (+3) has the best shot to get their 6th win and make a bowl as they will play host to Arizona State. Colorado still has a chance as well, but they will need to win a road game at Cal (-11). Cal, along with Stanford, Oregon, and Arizona State are all over the 6 win threshold.
Independents / Group of Five
One team I did not mention in the Pac 12 is USC. The Trojans are sitting at 5-6 and they can still make a bowl game, as long as they can beat Notre Dame (-8) this weekend in L.A. Obviously, if the Irish get this win, they are in the clubhouse with an invite to the Playoffs certainly in hand. The only question would be if 11-1 would still be good enough in case they lose. My gut feeling is that they would still sneak in, but it would depend on the results of the other games (like the SEC Championship Game) to some extent.
In the Group of Five, the action is winding down. In the AAC, UCF has clinched the East Division and just needs to win the AAC title game to secure their 2nd straight NY6 bid. Even if they lose at USF (+13.5) this weekend, they likely would still get in. Their last hurdle will be defeating the winner of Friday's game featuring Houston at Memphis (-8).
If the Memphis-Houston winner can knock out UCF, all eyes will turn to the Mountain West. Fresno State already has locked in a berth to the Mountain West title game where they will face the winner of Saturday night's battle on the blue field between our old friends Utah State and Boise State (-3). Either way, my math favors Fresno State to win the conference... but my gut says Boise pulls this one out in the end. Either way, the Mountain West Champ will be at least 10-2 and that likely will be enough to secure the NY6 bid if UCF falters.
As such, the remaining games in the MAC, C-USA, and Sunbelt will not impact the national picture. But, for fun I can tell you that I expect Buffalo, UAB, and App State to each win their conference.
That is all for this last regular season preview of the year. I will be back early next week, post-tryptophan coma, for my final regular season recap. Until then, enjoy the holiday and, as always, Go State, Beat Rutgers!
Bowl Footnote:
As one final thought, here is one tidbit of data. Right now, I count a total of 71 teams with at least 6 wins. There are a total of 78 slots in 39 FBS bowl games. That currently leaves 7 open slots. However, there are 3 games this weekend between 5-6 teams (Purdue at Indiana, Tennessee at Vanderbilt and Texas Tech vs. Baylor). So, 3 of those spots will get filled automatically, leaving only 4 open spots. But, there are a total of 17 teams that could get to 6-6 by the end of the season. Based on the spreads in this final week, I project that 83 teams will get to at least six wins. So, the bottom line is that I do not expect any 5-7 teams to make a bowl this year.
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