For the last several season prior to MSU's bowl game, I have found it to be a useful exercise to take a detailed look at the hard numbers that each team has generated over season. In particular, I like to analyze the rush and pass offense and defense numbers for each team on a per attempt basis. In addition, I like to take a closer look at the schedule of each team to gain a better understanding of the level of competition that each team has faced. I will leave it to others to analyze the actual "x's and o's" and "Jimmys and Joes." That type of analysis is obviously very important, but it is not one of my personal strengths. But, I think a statistical analysis ("zeros and ones?") is a part of the puzzle. That all said, in the analysis below, when I make comparisons between teams, it is always from the view point of statistical similarities, i.e. similar yards per play, and not in any way similarities in players, schemes, etc. Make sense? OK, let get into it. Let's start with the good news: MSU's defense.
Oregon's Rush Offense (4.57 yd/att, #55 in the country) vs. MSU's Rush Defense (2.67yd/att, #2)
Like most fans, when I think about Pac 12 teams not names Stanford, and a team with Oregon's recent history specifically, I expect to see a pass-happy spread team. However, the numbers do not bear seem that out. In fact, Oregon actually runs the ball 56% of the time on the season. The thing is they are just OK at it, averaging just over 4.5 yd per attempt. Furthermore, the output is a bit feast or famine. In 5 of their games against FBS opponents, they averaged 5.6 yd/att. Perhaps not surprisingly, 3 of those opponents (Bowling Green, UCLA, and Oregon State) have pretty dismal rushing defenses which are in the bottom 40 of the FBS. Meanwhile, in the Ducks other 6 games vs. FBS opponents, they only rushed for an average of 3.4 yd/att. Pretty much all of those results came against the teams Oregon faced that have above average rush defenses. Specifically, Oregon rushed for 2.8 yd/att vs Washington State (#48 rush defense), 3.6 yd / att vs. Stanford (#40) and Washington (#24), and 3.7 yd / att vs. Arizona (#62) and Utah (#6). As a caveat, however, the Ducks did manage to rush for 5.1 yd / att vs. Arizona State (#51) and more impressively, 6.2 yd / att vs Cal (#27), who was statistically the 3rd best rush defense they faced in the regular season.
But, MSU's rush defense is the definition of stout. It currently ranks #1 is total yards (976 yd) and #2 in yards per attempt (behind only Clemson). MSU has held 5 opponents to 1.5 yd/att or less and 10 of 12 opponents to less than 3.5 yd/att. Furthermore, 6 of MSU's 12 opponents finished the season in the Top 40 in rush yards per attempt, so the competition has been very respectable. The only two teams that put up good numbers were Penn State (205 yd at 6.4 yd/att) and oddly, Purdue (4.8 yd / att). However, the Penn State numbers are a bit misleading due to two big runs on essentially busts and the Purdue results were based very low volume (only 13 attempts for a total of 62 yards). Michigan did put up over 180 yards, but they needed 53 attempts to get there. While the busts versus Penn State still count, that game result is clearly an outlier.
In this category, it seems clear that Oregon is very likely over-matched. MSU is the best rush defense that they have faced and the Ducks are just OK at running. I would expect maybe 3 yd/att in the final box score for perhaps around 100 yards if the Ducks stick to their usual slightly run heavy play calling. But, there is certainly the chance there is an isolated bust or that MSU completely shuts the Ducks down.
Oregon's Passing Offense (7.94 yd/att, #37 in the country) vs. MSU's Passing Defense (6.22 yd/att, #25)
So now, the bad news.
MSU's Rush Offense (3.49 yd/att, #118 in the country) vs. Oregon's Rush Defense (3.76 yd/att, #36)
MSU's rushing offense is statistically very, very bad and Oregon's defense is pretty decent. This could be a problem. MSU has only exceeded 4.0 yd/att once this year, and that was at Maryland (269 yd at 5.8 yd/att). There was at least one long run in the mix in this game, and it is a clear outlier in the data. If you want to get even more depressed, I can tell you that MSU only faced two Top 40 run defenses all year: Utah State (#26) and Michigan (#16). The production against the Aggies was actually the 2nd highest all year total (165 yd at 3.9 yd/att) but this is still not a great number. It is better just not to speak about what happened against Michigan.
But, if you look hard enough for a little good news, I can find some. Maybe. The Ducks have not faced many, if any, good running teams this year. Statically, the best were the two Arizona schools, and they are both just Top 30 teams. Only two other teams are even in the Top 70 (Washington and Utah). The only almost positive news is that Oregon has given up some big numbers to some average running teams, specifically Cal (who put up 241 yd at 5.9 yd/att) UCLA (199 yd at 5.2 yd/att), and Utah (244 yd at 5.3 yd/att).
So, based on what we have seen, this match-up is not likely to go well for MSU. An output 120 yd and around 3.5 yd/att that might be on the optimistic to very optimistic side. But, if the O-line and LJ Scott are all healthy, maybe MSU can surprise us? Maybe?
MSU's Passing Offense (5.80 yd/att, #123 in the country) vs. Oregon's Passing Defense (7.19 yd/att, #63)
If MSU's rushing offense is bad, unfortunately the passing offense is worse, at least statistically. MSU has only been over 7.0 yd/att four times this year, and those were the first four games of the season. Two of those four performances were against the worst two pass defenses on the schedule (Arizona State (#86) and Indiana (#96)). Against mediocre to good pass defenses in the final four weeks, MSU couldn't muster anything over 4.6 yd/att, which is about as bad of things get. The only positive that I can point to is that in Week 1 and Week 4, a fairly healthy MSU team did put up 8.7 yd/att on Utah State (#45) and Central Michigan (#13). Both those teams have passing defenses which are better than Oregon's.
As for the Ducks, 7 of their 11 FBS opponents put up between 5.7 and 6.7 yd/att, which is respectably, but those were mostly teams with weak passing attacks. The Ducks did get carved up pretty good by Stanford (#20, putting up 327 yd at 12.6 yd/att) and Washington (#16, putting up 243 yd at 9.7 yd/att), but those were the best two air attacked that they faced. The other notable results were that Utah (#65) and Oregon State (#93) managed to get to 8.5 yd/att and 7.2 yd/att despite having just OK passing games.
In this match-up, a lot depends on which MSU QB is going to play. If we see Lewerke or shall we say the Purdue version of Rocky, I think MSU's passing game could be serviceable enough to get to maybe 7.5 to 8.0 yards / attempt. The Ducks have shown that they will give up yards. That would likely translate to around 300 yards through the air. If Lewerke can't play, is limited, and/or if Rocky struggles, I don't think MSU has much chance to out-score the Ducks.
Final Analysis
This looks like it should be a fun match-up. It looks like Oregon wants to run, but I think they will struggle to do so. MSU wants to run as well, but they simply can't. If either team can establish any sort of run game, the other team is in big trouble. But, the game will likely come down to the passing game.
Oregon's passing game went through a mid-season slump, but they have been very good the rest of the season. But, MSU's pass defense is likely up to the challenge. Oregon will get their points, but I am not sure they will get much past around 21, which is consistent with their regulation output against most of the good defenses they have faced.
So, the question in my mind is if MSU's passing game will come out of hibernation? I think the WR corp should be good to go, and so it really is going to be all about MSU's QB play. As I mention above, there is just no way to predict what we will see there.
As for more direct comparisons, statistically, Oregon is very similar to Purdue, with a slightly better rush defense. That is the kind of game MSU needs to play to win. With a month of time to heal and practice and with a chance to play in the California sun, I think a Purdue-type win is possible.
On the other side of the equation, MSU looks a little like two of Oregon's opponents. The first one is Utah. MSU's defensive stats are similar and slight better than Utah's. Utah beat Oregon 32-25. Utah's offense is mediocre. If MSU's offense can get to mediocre, I like MSU's chances to squeak this one out.
But, the other team that looks a little like MSU on Oregon's schedule is Cal. Cal has a Top 20 defense, but a Bottom 20 offense. Sound familiar? Ironically, Cal did OK on offense agsint the Ducks, ran the ball surprisingly well, but they had five turnovers, gave up a ton of yards, and lost 42-24. This is also certainly a possible outcome.
Oregon's Rush Offense (4.57 yd/att, #55 in the country) vs. MSU's Rush Defense (2.67yd/att, #2)
Like most fans, when I think about Pac 12 teams not names Stanford, and a team with Oregon's recent history specifically, I expect to see a pass-happy spread team. However, the numbers do not bear seem that out. In fact, Oregon actually runs the ball 56% of the time on the season. The thing is they are just OK at it, averaging just over 4.5 yd per attempt. Furthermore, the output is a bit feast or famine. In 5 of their games against FBS opponents, they averaged 5.6 yd/att. Perhaps not surprisingly, 3 of those opponents (Bowling Green, UCLA, and Oregon State) have pretty dismal rushing defenses which are in the bottom 40 of the FBS. Meanwhile, in the Ducks other 6 games vs. FBS opponents, they only rushed for an average of 3.4 yd/att. Pretty much all of those results came against the teams Oregon faced that have above average rush defenses. Specifically, Oregon rushed for 2.8 yd/att vs Washington State (#48 rush defense), 3.6 yd / att vs. Stanford (#40) and Washington (#24), and 3.7 yd / att vs. Arizona (#62) and Utah (#6). As a caveat, however, the Ducks did manage to rush for 5.1 yd / att vs. Arizona State (#51) and more impressively, 6.2 yd / att vs Cal (#27), who was statistically the 3rd best rush defense they faced in the regular season.
But, MSU's rush defense is the definition of stout. It currently ranks #1 is total yards (976 yd) and #2 in yards per attempt (behind only Clemson). MSU has held 5 opponents to 1.5 yd/att or less and 10 of 12 opponents to less than 3.5 yd/att. Furthermore, 6 of MSU's 12 opponents finished the season in the Top 40 in rush yards per attempt, so the competition has been very respectable. The only two teams that put up good numbers were Penn State (205 yd at 6.4 yd/att) and oddly, Purdue (4.8 yd / att). However, the Penn State numbers are a bit misleading due to two big runs on essentially busts and the Purdue results were based very low volume (only 13 attempts for a total of 62 yards). Michigan did put up over 180 yards, but they needed 53 attempts to get there. While the busts versus Penn State still count, that game result is clearly an outlier.
In this category, it seems clear that Oregon is very likely over-matched. MSU is the best rush defense that they have faced and the Ducks are just OK at running. I would expect maybe 3 yd/att in the final box score for perhaps around 100 yards if the Ducks stick to their usual slightly run heavy play calling. But, there is certainly the chance there is an isolated bust or that MSU completely shuts the Ducks down.
Oregon's Passing Offense (7.94 yd/att, #37 in the country) vs. MSU's Passing Defense (6.22 yd/att, #25)
This is perhaps the most interesting match-up in the bowl game. Oregon's QB, Justin Herbert is being talked about as perhaps the top overall QB taken in next year's NFL draft. So, I expected the Duck's passing numbers to be excellent. While they are good, they aren't eye-popping. Based on the yard/att metric over the full season, Oregon is the 5th best team MSU has faced behind Ohio State, Michigan, Utah State, and Purdue. Actually, Oregon's offensive numbers are extremely close to those of Purdue, except Purdue throws it a lot more. But, a closer look at the game trends give a bit more insight. In 7 of their 11 FBS games, they put up over 8.4 yd / att, which is quite good and they did it against a couple of good passing defense in Cal (#15) and Utah (#28). But, they had a mid-season slump against Washington, Wazzou, and Arizona where they could only muster 6.3, 6.1, and 3.9 yd/att, and only Washington (#10) has a Top 40 passing defense in that group. Another way to quantify this is that in their best 8 games, they achieved 9.2 yd/att which is Top 10 good. In their other 3 games, they were only at 5.3 yd/att, which is Bottom 10 bad. Strange.
As for MSU's pass defense, the total yards allowed (2762 yd) is very average, but the yd/att numbers are very good, and they have trended up since the beginning of the season. A big part of this is that opponents on many occasions have simply given up on the run and gone to the air. MSU's opponents have passed on 55% of all snaps. MSU has only given up over 6.0 yd/att four times all year, and two of those were in the first two weeks of the season vs. Utah State (7.3 yd/att) and Arizona State (7.9). The other two times were against Northwestern (7.9 yd/att) and Michigan (8.5 yd/att). In the two more recent contests against good passing teams (Purdue and Ohio State) the Spartans held them to around 5.8 yd/att.
This match-up is a bit tough to handicap. For one thing, the Duck's QB did injure his shoulder in the regular season finale. The word form Eugene is that he is healthy and will play in the Bowl, but it wouldn't shock me if one or both of those statement are not 100% true. On the other side of the ball, MSU is not sure if either stating CB (Layne and Scott) is going to play either, so there are just a lot of unknowns. All things equal, it looks like the Duck might be able to muster 8-9 yd/att on MSU's D, which is likely enough for maybe 250 yd through the air. That is probably good enough to put up 14-21 points on the board. Will that be enough to win? Well, that depends largely on MSU's offense.
So now, the bad news.
MSU's Rush Offense (3.49 yd/att, #118 in the country) vs. Oregon's Rush Defense (3.76 yd/att, #36)
MSU's rushing offense is statistically very, very bad and Oregon's defense is pretty decent. This could be a problem. MSU has only exceeded 4.0 yd/att once this year, and that was at Maryland (269 yd at 5.8 yd/att). There was at least one long run in the mix in this game, and it is a clear outlier in the data. If you want to get even more depressed, I can tell you that MSU only faced two Top 40 run defenses all year: Utah State (#26) and Michigan (#16). The production against the Aggies was actually the 2nd highest all year total (165 yd at 3.9 yd/att) but this is still not a great number. It is better just not to speak about what happened against Michigan.
But, if you look hard enough for a little good news, I can find some. Maybe. The Ducks have not faced many, if any, good running teams this year. Statically, the best were the two Arizona schools, and they are both just Top 30 teams. Only two other teams are even in the Top 70 (Washington and Utah). The only almost positive news is that Oregon has given up some big numbers to some average running teams, specifically Cal (who put up 241 yd at 5.9 yd/att) UCLA (199 yd at 5.2 yd/att), and Utah (244 yd at 5.3 yd/att).
So, based on what we have seen, this match-up is not likely to go well for MSU. An output 120 yd and around 3.5 yd/att that might be on the optimistic to very optimistic side. But, if the O-line and LJ Scott are all healthy, maybe MSU can surprise us? Maybe?
MSU's Passing Offense (5.80 yd/att, #123 in the country) vs. Oregon's Passing Defense (7.19 yd/att, #63)
If MSU's rushing offense is bad, unfortunately the passing offense is worse, at least statistically. MSU has only been over 7.0 yd/att four times this year, and those were the first four games of the season. Two of those four performances were against the worst two pass defenses on the schedule (Arizona State (#86) and Indiana (#96)). Against mediocre to good pass defenses in the final four weeks, MSU couldn't muster anything over 4.6 yd/att, which is about as bad of things get. The only positive that I can point to is that in Week 1 and Week 4, a fairly healthy MSU team did put up 8.7 yd/att on Utah State (#45) and Central Michigan (#13). Both those teams have passing defenses which are better than Oregon's.
As for the Ducks, 7 of their 11 FBS opponents put up between 5.7 and 6.7 yd/att, which is respectably, but those were mostly teams with weak passing attacks. The Ducks did get carved up pretty good by Stanford (#20, putting up 327 yd at 12.6 yd/att) and Washington (#16, putting up 243 yd at 9.7 yd/att), but those were the best two air attacked that they faced. The other notable results were that Utah (#65) and Oregon State (#93) managed to get to 8.5 yd/att and 7.2 yd/att despite having just OK passing games.
In this match-up, a lot depends on which MSU QB is going to play. If we see Lewerke or shall we say the Purdue version of Rocky, I think MSU's passing game could be serviceable enough to get to maybe 7.5 to 8.0 yards / attempt. The Ducks have shown that they will give up yards. That would likely translate to around 300 yards through the air. If Lewerke can't play, is limited, and/or if Rocky struggles, I don't think MSU has much chance to out-score the Ducks.
Final Analysis
This looks like it should be a fun match-up. It looks like Oregon wants to run, but I think they will struggle to do so. MSU wants to run as well, but they simply can't. If either team can establish any sort of run game, the other team is in big trouble. But, the game will likely come down to the passing game.
Oregon's passing game went through a mid-season slump, but they have been very good the rest of the season. But, MSU's pass defense is likely up to the challenge. Oregon will get their points, but I am not sure they will get much past around 21, which is consistent with their regulation output against most of the good defenses they have faced.
So, the question in my mind is if MSU's passing game will come out of hibernation? I think the WR corp should be good to go, and so it really is going to be all about MSU's QB play. As I mention above, there is just no way to predict what we will see there.
As for more direct comparisons, statistically, Oregon is very similar to Purdue, with a slightly better rush defense. That is the kind of game MSU needs to play to win. With a month of time to heal and practice and with a chance to play in the California sun, I think a Purdue-type win is possible.
On the other side of the equation, MSU looks a little like two of Oregon's opponents. The first one is Utah. MSU's defensive stats are similar and slight better than Utah's. Utah beat Oregon 32-25. Utah's offense is mediocre. If MSU's offense can get to mediocre, I like MSU's chances to squeak this one out.
But, the other team that looks a little like MSU on Oregon's schedule is Cal. Cal has a Top 20 defense, but a Bottom 20 offense. Sound familiar? Ironically, Cal did OK on offense agsint the Ducks, ran the ball surprisingly well, but they had five turnovers, gave up a ton of yards, and lost 42-24. This is also certainly a possible outcome.
As for me, I tend to be an optimist. I think MSU's defense will play well and will keep just enough of a lid on the Duck offense to give MSU a chance. Then, I think we will either see a healthy enough version of Lewerke or an improved enough version of Lombardi that MSU's offense and passing game will be serviceable again. I like MSU 24-20.
That's all for now. As always, Go State, Beat the Ducks!
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