Welcome to Part 2 of my ongoing series digging deep into the upcoming football season. In the first installment of this series, I went into detail about my methodology and went into excruciating detail about MSU and the Big Ten. I would like to continue with a bit more concise analysis of the remaining Power 5 conferences, starting with the SEC. I will start with a chart summarizing the bulk of my calculations for the boys down South.
SEC
Off the bat, I need to point out that the SEC is likely the most difficult conference to analyze using my methods. One of the basic assumptions that I use is that the rankings correspond linearly to the actual strength of each team. In other words, the 21st team in the country is as much better than the 22nd ranked team as the #1 team is than the #2 team and that the #2 team is than the #3 team. My own data tells me that this isn't true at the very top of the scale in any given year, and with teams like Alabama and Clemson it appears to be even less true now.
Also in divisions such as the SEC West, there are so many good teams that one would expect that they would simply beat up on each other and everyone would have 2-3 losses. That is, in fact, what my simulation typically predicts every year. As you will see, this year is no different. But, empires are only empires until the barbarians storm the gates. Some year, Clemson and Alabama are going to stumble. It might be this year, and it might not. For the SEC specifically, if this is the year Bama takes a few mid-season Ls, I think this analysis can guide us to exactly how that might happen.
Getting back to the data above, despite my caveats given above, the raw probabilities suggest that the SEC West favorite is still Alabama (1) and the SEC East favorite is still Georgia (3). This makes sense as they are the highest ranked teams in both divisions, and the math almost always works out that way.
The race in the West appears a bit closer, however, as the Tide are only given a 4% better chance than LSU (4) (34% vs. 30%). Simply looking at the projected spreads suggests that Bama will be favored in all 12 games. LSU is likely to be favored in 11, with the key match-up between the two teams taking place in Tuscaloosa. But, the fact that LSU's odds are so close to Bama despite this disadvantage speaks to some challenges in Alabama's schedule.
The Tide actually have a pretty brutal road schedule this year. They travel to South Carolina (23), Texas A&M (10), Mississippi State (20), and Auburn (11). Meanwhile, LSU (other than the road game at Alabama) only has to travel to Mississippi State, Vandy (59), and Ole Miss (52), although they do draw Florida (7) at home in their other East cross-over. For this reason, my simulation actually has LSU finishing a game ahead of Bama in the West at 6-2 (but with a close non-conference loss at Texas (17)). Is it crazy to suggest that Bama might lose 3 road games? Probably. But, looking at that schedule does give me pause.
The other team to keep an eye on is Texas A&M (10). They get to host Bama this year and other than two road games at the end of the year at Georgia (3) and at LSU (4), their schedule is manageable. Also, they will be tested early in Week 2 against Clemson. I would call them a dark horse in the West.
Finally, on paper Auburn (11) could be a contender, but their schedule is clearly the toughest overall. They get to host Bama, but they must travel to both LSU (4) and A&M (10). Oh, and just for fun their two East cross-overs are at Florida (7) and vs. Georgia (3). I am not sure what the poor Tigers did to anger the SEC scheduling computer. They will most likely lose 3-4 games and just obliterate some middling Big Ten team in a Bowl game... again.
Over in the SEC East, there appears to be a bit more separation. Georgia (3) is the clear favorite with a 44% chance to win the Division. Florida (7) and dark-horse Missouri's (19) odds are hovering in the mid-20s. The schedule for the Bulldogs looks pretty manageable. Other than a cross-over trip to Auburn, none of their true road games are scary. However, the World Largest Cocktail Party vs. Florida in Jacksonville looks to loom large this year. If Georgia wins that contest, they should win the East. My simulation predicts just that... by a hair. But, if they lose to Florida, it could be very good news... for Missouri.
The Tigers have, perhaps, the best schedule in the entire SEC. Yes, they travel to Athens to face Georgia, but other than that, everything is manageable. Their other road games are at Vandy (59), Kentucky (45), and Arkansas (67). Woof. If Missouri can beat Florida at home, they could very easily finish 7-1, which could take the crown if UGA stumbles at Auburn and in Jacksonville vs. Florida.
Finally in the East, Florida (7) is a clear contender, but their path is a bit steeper. They have to travel to Missouri (19) and South Carolina (23) and as mentioned their showdown with Georgia (3) is not a true home game. Also, they happen to have drawn vs. Auburn (11) and at LSU (4) as their West cross-overs. They seem likely to take several losses and like Auburn, get placed into a bowl game where they will just destroy their opponent.
Based on my simulated season, I project an 11-1 Georgia (3) squad to emerge from the East to face a battle scarred 9-3 LSU (4) team in the SEC title game. Georgia would be a slight favorite in that contest, which would be projected to bring their record to 12-1 and ensure a Playoff spot. It that scenario, it would be pretty tricky to justify a 2nd Playoff spot to an SEC team. Despite all my math, let's keep it real for a second. It still seems likely that Bama will find a way to win the West and beat UGA on their way to another Playoff spot. In that scenario, the 2nd place West team (likely LSU) could also make the playoffs, if they can finish at 11-1.
To close out my summary of the SEC, I present the corrected win matrix and over/under chart:
This data (among other things) suggests Bama only has a 40% chance to win 10 or more games. If there were actually mortal, that might be true.
As for ill-advised betting advice, the over on Missouri looks promising, as does the under on Arkansas.
ACC
Moving on to the ACC, here is the season preview table for Right Coasters:
In case you were wondering, this is what the numbers look like when you have one dominant team in a Division. Clemson is clearly one of the best two teams in the country and no one in their Division is likely going to be able to touch them. Based on my projections, their tightest conference game is likely the road test at Syracuse (40) (which has been a problem in the past...) but even in that one they are projected to be favored by 12 points. Florida State (28) could give them a test in Death Valley... but I doubt it. The most likely scenario in which a team other than Clemson wins the Atlantic Division is if Syracuse upsets Clemson and then finds a way to beat either Florida State or NC State on the road (and win the rest of their games). Crazier things have happened, but I wouldn't count on that one.
So, at least in the regular season, the only real question is can Clemson sweep the non conference slate that includes a home game against Texas A&M (10) and a road test at rival South Carolina (23). The Tigers project as around a 5-7 point favorite in both games, and the math actually suggests "only" a 45% chance that they win both.
As for the Coastal Division, things look a little more interesting. The preseason rankings have Miami and the Virginia schools all in the 20-40 ranking range. The odds suggest Miami (22) is the clear favorite, and their schedule partially shows why: they get to host both VA Tech (30) and Virginia (39). So, not only are they a little better on paper, but Miami also gets an assist from the schedule gods. The Canes may not get past Florida (7) on opening weekend or win the game at Florida State (28), but I project them to go 10-2 (7-1 in conference play) and then get mauled by Clemson in the ACC Title game. As I project Clemson to finish 13-0, they are my pick to get the #1 seed in the College Football Playoffs. My math suggests their odds to make the playoff are almost 57%, which is by far the highest in Division 1.
For those interested, here is the win matrix for the ACC (with Notre Dame added to the bottom).
In this case, Clemson has a 42% chance to win at least 11 games and a 73% to win at least 10. Once again, if this seems a bit low, it is only because there is a chance that they underachieve for some reason.
As for the over / under chart for the ACC, my math likes the "over" for both Syracuse and Virginia, while Duke and Boston College are flirting with that "under" line.
Notre Dame
Finally, since Notre Dame (9) likes to pretend that they are an ACC team for football, I might as well mention them here. In general, their schedule seem a bit feast-or-famine. They play several real bad to pretty bad teams teams and three mediocre ones in South Bend, including Virginia (39), USC (31), Virginia Tech (30). They are projected to win all of those games.
For their remaining three games, they have a collection of road games that all could be trouble, if not big trouble. First, they play both Georgia (3) and Michigan (5) on the road. I project them to lose both of those. So, for the Irish to get to 10 wins they would likely need to beat Stanford (29) on the road to close the season. My simulation projects a loss there as well, which would put the Irish at 9-3 and well outside of the Playoff discussion.
That said, the math does suggest that there is a 55% chance the Irish can beat either Michigan or Georgia (I vote Michigan), in which case the Irish could be sitting at 10-1 before their trip to Palo Alto in November. Would an 11-1 Irish team with a win or Michigan or Georgia be good enough for the playoffs? Probably... but that depends a lot on what the candidate pool looks like.
That will do it for now. In my next installment, I will wrap up the Power 5 with a summary of the Big 12 and the Pac 12. That will be followed up with an overview of the Group of Five, and then I will wrap things up with my NY6 / Playoffs Projections. Stay tuned, Enjoy, and Go Green!
SEC
Off the bat, I need to point out that the SEC is likely the most difficult conference to analyze using my methods. One of the basic assumptions that I use is that the rankings correspond linearly to the actual strength of each team. In other words, the 21st team in the country is as much better than the 22nd ranked team as the #1 team is than the #2 team and that the #2 team is than the #3 team. My own data tells me that this isn't true at the very top of the scale in any given year, and with teams like Alabama and Clemson it appears to be even less true now.
Also in divisions such as the SEC West, there are so many good teams that one would expect that they would simply beat up on each other and everyone would have 2-3 losses. That is, in fact, what my simulation typically predicts every year. As you will see, this year is no different. But, empires are only empires until the barbarians storm the gates. Some year, Clemson and Alabama are going to stumble. It might be this year, and it might not. For the SEC specifically, if this is the year Bama takes a few mid-season Ls, I think this analysis can guide us to exactly how that might happen.
Getting back to the data above, despite my caveats given above, the raw probabilities suggest that the SEC West favorite is still Alabama (1) and the SEC East favorite is still Georgia (3). This makes sense as they are the highest ranked teams in both divisions, and the math almost always works out that way.
The race in the West appears a bit closer, however, as the Tide are only given a 4% better chance than LSU (4) (34% vs. 30%). Simply looking at the projected spreads suggests that Bama will be favored in all 12 games. LSU is likely to be favored in 11, with the key match-up between the two teams taking place in Tuscaloosa. But, the fact that LSU's odds are so close to Bama despite this disadvantage speaks to some challenges in Alabama's schedule.
The Tide actually have a pretty brutal road schedule this year. They travel to South Carolina (23), Texas A&M (10), Mississippi State (20), and Auburn (11). Meanwhile, LSU (other than the road game at Alabama) only has to travel to Mississippi State, Vandy (59), and Ole Miss (52), although they do draw Florida (7) at home in their other East cross-over. For this reason, my simulation actually has LSU finishing a game ahead of Bama in the West at 6-2 (but with a close non-conference loss at Texas (17)). Is it crazy to suggest that Bama might lose 3 road games? Probably. But, looking at that schedule does give me pause.
The other team to keep an eye on is Texas A&M (10). They get to host Bama this year and other than two road games at the end of the year at Georgia (3) and at LSU (4), their schedule is manageable. Also, they will be tested early in Week 2 against Clemson. I would call them a dark horse in the West.
Finally, on paper Auburn (11) could be a contender, but their schedule is clearly the toughest overall. They get to host Bama, but they must travel to both LSU (4) and A&M (10). Oh, and just for fun their two East cross-overs are at Florida (7) and vs. Georgia (3). I am not sure what the poor Tigers did to anger the SEC scheduling computer. They will most likely lose 3-4 games and just obliterate some middling Big Ten team in a Bowl game... again.
Over in the SEC East, there appears to be a bit more separation. Georgia (3) is the clear favorite with a 44% chance to win the Division. Florida (7) and dark-horse Missouri's (19) odds are hovering in the mid-20s. The schedule for the Bulldogs looks pretty manageable. Other than a cross-over trip to Auburn, none of their true road games are scary. However, the World Largest Cocktail Party vs. Florida in Jacksonville looks to loom large this year. If Georgia wins that contest, they should win the East. My simulation predicts just that... by a hair. But, if they lose to Florida, it could be very good news... for Missouri.
The Tigers have, perhaps, the best schedule in the entire SEC. Yes, they travel to Athens to face Georgia, but other than that, everything is manageable. Their other road games are at Vandy (59), Kentucky (45), and Arkansas (67). Woof. If Missouri can beat Florida at home, they could very easily finish 7-1, which could take the crown if UGA stumbles at Auburn and in Jacksonville vs. Florida.
Finally in the East, Florida (7) is a clear contender, but their path is a bit steeper. They have to travel to Missouri (19) and South Carolina (23) and as mentioned their showdown with Georgia (3) is not a true home game. Also, they happen to have drawn vs. Auburn (11) and at LSU (4) as their West cross-overs. They seem likely to take several losses and like Auburn, get placed into a bowl game where they will just destroy their opponent.
Based on my simulated season, I project an 11-1 Georgia (3) squad to emerge from the East to face a battle scarred 9-3 LSU (4) team in the SEC title game. Georgia would be a slight favorite in that contest, which would be projected to bring their record to 12-1 and ensure a Playoff spot. It that scenario, it would be pretty tricky to justify a 2nd Playoff spot to an SEC team. Despite all my math, let's keep it real for a second. It still seems likely that Bama will find a way to win the West and beat UGA on their way to another Playoff spot. In that scenario, the 2nd place West team (likely LSU) could also make the playoffs, if they can finish at 11-1.
To close out my summary of the SEC, I present the corrected win matrix and over/under chart:
This data (among other things) suggests Bama only has a 40% chance to win 10 or more games. If there were actually mortal, that might be true.
As for ill-advised betting advice, the over on Missouri looks promising, as does the under on Arkansas.
ACC
Moving on to the ACC, here is the season preview table for Right Coasters:
In case you were wondering, this is what the numbers look like when you have one dominant team in a Division. Clemson is clearly one of the best two teams in the country and no one in their Division is likely going to be able to touch them. Based on my projections, their tightest conference game is likely the road test at Syracuse (40) (which has been a problem in the past...) but even in that one they are projected to be favored by 12 points. Florida State (28) could give them a test in Death Valley... but I doubt it. The most likely scenario in which a team other than Clemson wins the Atlantic Division is if Syracuse upsets Clemson and then finds a way to beat either Florida State or NC State on the road (and win the rest of their games). Crazier things have happened, but I wouldn't count on that one.
So, at least in the regular season, the only real question is can Clemson sweep the non conference slate that includes a home game against Texas A&M (10) and a road test at rival South Carolina (23). The Tigers project as around a 5-7 point favorite in both games, and the math actually suggests "only" a 45% chance that they win both.
As for the Coastal Division, things look a little more interesting. The preseason rankings have Miami and the Virginia schools all in the 20-40 ranking range. The odds suggest Miami (22) is the clear favorite, and their schedule partially shows why: they get to host both VA Tech (30) and Virginia (39). So, not only are they a little better on paper, but Miami also gets an assist from the schedule gods. The Canes may not get past Florida (7) on opening weekend or win the game at Florida State (28), but I project them to go 10-2 (7-1 in conference play) and then get mauled by Clemson in the ACC Title game. As I project Clemson to finish 13-0, they are my pick to get the #1 seed in the College Football Playoffs. My math suggests their odds to make the playoff are almost 57%, which is by far the highest in Division 1.
For those interested, here is the win matrix for the ACC (with Notre Dame added to the bottom).
In this case, Clemson has a 42% chance to win at least 11 games and a 73% to win at least 10. Once again, if this seems a bit low, it is only because there is a chance that they underachieve for some reason.
As for the over / under chart for the ACC, my math likes the "over" for both Syracuse and Virginia, while Duke and Boston College are flirting with that "under" line.
Notre Dame
Finally, since Notre Dame (9) likes to pretend that they are an ACC team for football, I might as well mention them here. In general, their schedule seem a bit feast-or-famine. They play several real bad to pretty bad teams teams and three mediocre ones in South Bend, including Virginia (39), USC (31), Virginia Tech (30). They are projected to win all of those games.
For their remaining three games, they have a collection of road games that all could be trouble, if not big trouble. First, they play both Georgia (3) and Michigan (5) on the road. I project them to lose both of those. So, for the Irish to get to 10 wins they would likely need to beat Stanford (29) on the road to close the season. My simulation projects a loss there as well, which would put the Irish at 9-3 and well outside of the Playoff discussion.
That said, the math does suggest that there is a 55% chance the Irish can beat either Michigan or Georgia (I vote Michigan), in which case the Irish could be sitting at 10-1 before their trip to Palo Alto in November. Would an 11-1 Irish team with a win or Michigan or Georgia be good enough for the playoffs? Probably... but that depends a lot on what the candidate pool looks like.
That will do it for now. In my next installment, I will wrap up the Power 5 with a summary of the Big 12 and the Pac 12. That will be followed up with an overview of the Group of Five, and then I will wrap things up with my NY6 / Playoffs Projections. Stay tuned, Enjoy, and Go Green!
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