Welcome to Part 4 of my ongoing series using math to analyze the upcoming college football season. While the vast majority of summer analysis focuses on the Power Five, I would like to take a little time to look at the rest of the FBS, those five conferences known as the Group of Five.
In the current New Years Six Bowl System, one slot is reserved for the best overall team from the Group of Five. Based on the NY6 Bowl rotation, this team will be playing in the Cotton Bowl this year. The Group of Five as a whole is 3-2 in NY6 games, so they have actually been fairly competitive as a group. (The Wolverines are 0-2. Just saying'.) So, let's take a look to see which team might be traveling to Dallas over this Holidays this year.
American Athletic Conference (AAC)
Let's kick things off with the AAC, starting with the same summary table that I used for the Power 5 conferences:
The AAC has produced the last two NY6 participants (UCF both times) and 3 of the total 5 (Boise State, Western Michigan, and AAC member Houston were the others). Based on the preseason rankings, the AAC has a very good shot to make it 3 in a row, as 3 of the 4 highest preseason ranked Group of Five teams (UCF, Cincinnati, and Memphis) are from the AAC,
As for the conference race, the raw probabilities give only 4 teams total more than a 1% chance to win the conference. In the East, UCF (25) has the best overall odds to win the Division at 66%, ahead of Cincinnati's (38) 33% odds, and in the West, Memphis (41) appears to have a bigger margin for error, as their odds are close to 80% compared to Houston's 17%.
While both UCF and Memphis are projected to be favored in all of their games in the regular season, UCF does have to travel to Cincinnati, and my simulation likes the Bearscats in a mild upset. If this were to come to pass, Cinci would need to avoid losing both of their tough conference road games at Houston (65) and Memphis (41) in order to likely win the East.
Speaking of Memphis, while they do have to travel to Houston (65) this year, my simulation still likes Memphis to run the table. Even if Memphis does have a problem in Houston, the Cougars have a much tougher schedule (they play both Cinci and at UCF) and are unlikely to be able to win the Division. In this scenario, my simulation projects Cincinnati to beat Memphis in the AAC Title game and stake their claim on the Cotton Bowl. That is exactly what my simulation projects.
It should also be noted that the AAC is involved in several potential resume building non-conference contests. Cincinnati hosts UCLA (44), travels to Columbus to face the Buckeyes (8), and has a sneaky tricky road test at Marshall (70). I like the Bearcats in all those games except against OSU. UCF hosts Stanford (29) and travels to Pitt (55). I projected them to win both. Memphis hosts Ole Miss (52), and I like a W for the AAC there as well. Even Houston scheduled Oklahoma and Washington State (I see two Ls, but the potential is there). So, if the AAC members can have a good showing in these contests, the eventual champ will have a great shot at the Cotton Bowl.
Mountain West
If the AAC Champs does NOT make it to the Cotton Bow, it is quite likely that the Mountain West will be the conference to take that slot. Four of the Eight top ranked Group of Five teams reside in the Mountain West. Let's first take a look at the summary table.
The raw probabilities really favor Boise State overall. The Broncos (33) are the highest ranked MWest team by a fair margin and my numbers suggest that they have an 85% chance to win the Mountain Division and almost a 55% chance to win the conference overall. A look at the Bronco's schedule does not reveal many challenges in conference play. While the Broncos do travel to Utah State (58) this year, the Aggies are not expected to be quite as good as last year, and my simulation still likes Boise. Even if the Aggies were to score an upset, they play the two strongest West teams (Fresno and San Diego State) both on the road and it is unlikely that they can finish with fewer than 2 conference losses.
As for the West Division race, it also looks like a two horse race between Fresno State (57) and San Diego State (64), and Fresno has a slight lead in the odds category (50% to 45%). However, their schedules look to be essentially equally not terribly challenging. The key factor is that San Diego State gets to host Fresno, and therefor, I have the Aztecs in the MWest Title Game.
As for non-conference resume builders, Boise does face Florida State (28) on opening weekend. They also host Marshall (70) and travel to BYU (48). My simulation has Boise losing to both the Seminoles and Cougars to finish at 10-2. My guess is that they will need to win at least one of those games to be in contention for the Cotton Bowl.
Fresno State travels to USC (31) and hosts Minnesota (35) in their first two games. I have them losing both games, but if they can win at least one of those contests, that would likely be the best non-conference win for any MWest team. As for the Aztecs, they travel to UCLA (44, a projected loss) and host BYU (48, a projected win). So, there are some pretty good opportunities to bring some positive recognition to the conference early on, and that may pay dividends in the committee's eventual rankings.
Conference USA
Next up is C-USA, a conference that has yet to place a team in the NY6. The preseason summary table looks like this:
In general, the race for the C-USA crown looks fairly competitive, as 7 teams have at least a 4% chance to win the title, and no team has odds over 30%. However, the highest ranked team in the preseason is Marshall at only 70, so it is unlikely that any of these teams are going to crash the NY6 party.
In the West, Southern Miss (79) is the team with the edge in odds at 42%, but from the point of view of both number of games favored and my simulation, I project a 3-way tie at 6-2 between Southern Miss, North Texas (84), and LA Tech (86). In both scenarios, LA Tech beats the other two teams at home, so the Bulldogs are my pick, despite their fairly long odds (18%).
Out East, Marshall (70) has more of an odds advantage than the West favorite, but Florida International (75), and Florida Atlantic (87) are hanging around. Based on the raw projected favorites, Marshall is favored to run the table, but in my simulation it's Florida Atlantic, who hosts both Marshall and FIU, who wins the Division. If my simulation scenario were to come to pass, LA Tech would beat Florida Atlantic by a nose to win the C-USA crown.
That all said, I will say this about Marshall's schedule. They have a great chance to be favored in all 8 of their conference games and their non-conference schedule offers a unique opportunity. They face Boise State (33) on the road (the MWest favorite), Ohio (78) at home (one of the MAC favorites), and they host Cincinnati (38, one of the AAC favorites). If the Herd could someone win at least 2 or even all 3 of those games, they could make a very legitimate claim as the best of the Group of Five, even though they don't play a single Power 5 team.
MAC
Next up on the list of Group of Five Conferences is our Midwest compatriots from the MAC. Shown below is the preseason summary table:
Based on the overall preseason rankings, the MAC overall looks to be a 3-team race between Ohio (78), Toledo (73), and Western Michigan (72). On paper, the Broncos grade out as the best of the three, based on my consensus rankings, but the Ohio Bobcats seem to have the edge in odds.
Ohio's main advantage stems from the fact that they appear to be in the weaker of the two MAC Divisions, as 3 of the only 4 Top 100 teams in the MAC are in the West. In addition, the Bobcats draw only one team from that group on their schedule, WMU, and they get them at home. As such, I project Ohio to finish 8-0 in conference play, winning the East going away.
Out West, Toledo and Western Michigan on paper are neck-and-neck, but the Rockets have a major schedule advantage as they draw Western (72) and Northern Illinois (90) at home, while the Broncos of Kalamazoo must travel to Toledo (73), Ohio (78), and Northern Illinois (90). This explains the major difference in Division odds (55% to 33%). It should come as no surprise that all my methods suggest both Ohio and Toledo will run the table and face each other in the MAC title game, where Toledo would be the favorite.
As for notable non-conference chances to make a mark, Toledo opens the season at Kentucky (45) and hosts BYU (48) in late September. I project them to lose both to finish at 10-2, but a win in either game could put them in the Cotton Bowl discussion, especially if that win is in Lexington. As for Ohio, their only Power 5 opponent is Pitt (55) which is likely going to move the needle much, even if they win. Overall, getting a MAC team to the Cotton Bowl looks like a long shot.
Sunbelt
Finally, it's time for the Funbelt. The final preseason summary table of the year is shown below (sorry independents...).
Just based on the pure odds, the Funbelt looks like a 2-team race between App State (49) and Arkansas State (83) with the Mountaineers as the clear favorite. Those two teams do not meet in the regular season.
In the East, App State's odds (79%) are clearly strong, but Troy is a threat. App State has to go on the road to face the Trojans in the final game of the regular season, and the Trojans have the schedule to make that a winner take all affair. My simulation still likes the Mountaineers, but Troy has a path.
In the West, Arkansas State (83) does draw the second best team in their Division (Louisiana-Lafayette, 97) at home, but they also have to travel to Troy, which projects as a loss. That said, despite the lower odds to win their Division (75%) compared to App State, I see less of a path for a team like one of the Louisiana schools to make a run at the Title. Either way, though, Arkansas State is likely to be the underdog to either App State or Troy in the Sunbelt Title game.
As for non-conference opportunities, my projected Sunbelt champ, Appalachian State, has dates set against both North (66) and South Carolina (23). While I project losses in both of those contests, again, a win or two there would not be unheard of and that would put them into the Cotton Bowl discussion. Arkansas State travels to Georgia (3). Good luck with that. Meanwhile, Troy's chance to make the headlines comes in early October at Missouri (19). We will see if anyone from the Sunbelt can give someone a not-so-fun weekend.
So, that does it for the conference-by-conference analysis this year. In the 5th and final installment of this series, I will summary what I have projected so far, and extract from that my NY6 and Playoff predictions. Until then, I will leave only the truly hard-core college football fans with an Appendix of sorts with the remaining corrected win matrices and the group of five over / under charts. Enjoy and Go Green.
Appendix
The MAC over/under values all look reasonable to me
In the Sunbelt, Troy might be a good under belt, while Georgia State looks like an "under."
In the current New Years Six Bowl System, one slot is reserved for the best overall team from the Group of Five. Based on the NY6 Bowl rotation, this team will be playing in the Cotton Bowl this year. The Group of Five as a whole is 3-2 in NY6 games, so they have actually been fairly competitive as a group. (The Wolverines are 0-2. Just saying'.) So, let's take a look to see which team might be traveling to Dallas over this Holidays this year.
American Athletic Conference (AAC)
Let's kick things off with the AAC, starting with the same summary table that I used for the Power 5 conferences:
The AAC has produced the last two NY6 participants (UCF both times) and 3 of the total 5 (Boise State, Western Michigan, and AAC member Houston were the others). Based on the preseason rankings, the AAC has a very good shot to make it 3 in a row, as 3 of the 4 highest preseason ranked Group of Five teams (UCF, Cincinnati, and Memphis) are from the AAC,
As for the conference race, the raw probabilities give only 4 teams total more than a 1% chance to win the conference. In the East, UCF (25) has the best overall odds to win the Division at 66%, ahead of Cincinnati's (38) 33% odds, and in the West, Memphis (41) appears to have a bigger margin for error, as their odds are close to 80% compared to Houston's 17%.
While both UCF and Memphis are projected to be favored in all of their games in the regular season, UCF does have to travel to Cincinnati, and my simulation likes the Bearscats in a mild upset. If this were to come to pass, Cinci would need to avoid losing both of their tough conference road games at Houston (65) and Memphis (41) in order to likely win the East.
Speaking of Memphis, while they do have to travel to Houston (65) this year, my simulation still likes Memphis to run the table. Even if Memphis does have a problem in Houston, the Cougars have a much tougher schedule (they play both Cinci and at UCF) and are unlikely to be able to win the Division. In this scenario, my simulation projects Cincinnati to beat Memphis in the AAC Title game and stake their claim on the Cotton Bowl. That is exactly what my simulation projects.
It should also be noted that the AAC is involved in several potential resume building non-conference contests. Cincinnati hosts UCLA (44), travels to Columbus to face the Buckeyes (8), and has a sneaky tricky road test at Marshall (70). I like the Bearcats in all those games except against OSU. UCF hosts Stanford (29) and travels to Pitt (55). I projected them to win both. Memphis hosts Ole Miss (52), and I like a W for the AAC there as well. Even Houston scheduled Oklahoma and Washington State (I see two Ls, but the potential is there). So, if the AAC members can have a good showing in these contests, the eventual champ will have a great shot at the Cotton Bowl.
Mountain West
If the AAC Champs does NOT make it to the Cotton Bow, it is quite likely that the Mountain West will be the conference to take that slot. Four of the Eight top ranked Group of Five teams reside in the Mountain West. Let's first take a look at the summary table.
The raw probabilities really favor Boise State overall. The Broncos (33) are the highest ranked MWest team by a fair margin and my numbers suggest that they have an 85% chance to win the Mountain Division and almost a 55% chance to win the conference overall. A look at the Bronco's schedule does not reveal many challenges in conference play. While the Broncos do travel to Utah State (58) this year, the Aggies are not expected to be quite as good as last year, and my simulation still likes Boise. Even if the Aggies were to score an upset, they play the two strongest West teams (Fresno and San Diego State) both on the road and it is unlikely that they can finish with fewer than 2 conference losses.
As for the West Division race, it also looks like a two horse race between Fresno State (57) and San Diego State (64), and Fresno has a slight lead in the odds category (50% to 45%). However, their schedules look to be essentially equally not terribly challenging. The key factor is that San Diego State gets to host Fresno, and therefor, I have the Aztecs in the MWest Title Game.
As for non-conference resume builders, Boise does face Florida State (28) on opening weekend. They also host Marshall (70) and travel to BYU (48). My simulation has Boise losing to both the Seminoles and Cougars to finish at 10-2. My guess is that they will need to win at least one of those games to be in contention for the Cotton Bowl.
Fresno State travels to USC (31) and hosts Minnesota (35) in their first two games. I have them losing both games, but if they can win at least one of those contests, that would likely be the best non-conference win for any MWest team. As for the Aztecs, they travel to UCLA (44, a projected loss) and host BYU (48, a projected win). So, there are some pretty good opportunities to bring some positive recognition to the conference early on, and that may pay dividends in the committee's eventual rankings.
Conference USA
Next up is C-USA, a conference that has yet to place a team in the NY6. The preseason summary table looks like this:
In general, the race for the C-USA crown looks fairly competitive, as 7 teams have at least a 4% chance to win the title, and no team has odds over 30%. However, the highest ranked team in the preseason is Marshall at only 70, so it is unlikely that any of these teams are going to crash the NY6 party.
In the West, Southern Miss (79) is the team with the edge in odds at 42%, but from the point of view of both number of games favored and my simulation, I project a 3-way tie at 6-2 between Southern Miss, North Texas (84), and LA Tech (86). In both scenarios, LA Tech beats the other two teams at home, so the Bulldogs are my pick, despite their fairly long odds (18%).
Out East, Marshall (70) has more of an odds advantage than the West favorite, but Florida International (75), and Florida Atlantic (87) are hanging around. Based on the raw projected favorites, Marshall is favored to run the table, but in my simulation it's Florida Atlantic, who hosts both Marshall and FIU, who wins the Division. If my simulation scenario were to come to pass, LA Tech would beat Florida Atlantic by a nose to win the C-USA crown.
That all said, I will say this about Marshall's schedule. They have a great chance to be favored in all 8 of their conference games and their non-conference schedule offers a unique opportunity. They face Boise State (33) on the road (the MWest favorite), Ohio (78) at home (one of the MAC favorites), and they host Cincinnati (38, one of the AAC favorites). If the Herd could someone win at least 2 or even all 3 of those games, they could make a very legitimate claim as the best of the Group of Five, even though they don't play a single Power 5 team.
MAC
Next up on the list of Group of Five Conferences is our Midwest compatriots from the MAC. Shown below is the preseason summary table:
Based on the overall preseason rankings, the MAC overall looks to be a 3-team race between Ohio (78), Toledo (73), and Western Michigan (72). On paper, the Broncos grade out as the best of the three, based on my consensus rankings, but the Ohio Bobcats seem to have the edge in odds.
Ohio's main advantage stems from the fact that they appear to be in the weaker of the two MAC Divisions, as 3 of the only 4 Top 100 teams in the MAC are in the West. In addition, the Bobcats draw only one team from that group on their schedule, WMU, and they get them at home. As such, I project Ohio to finish 8-0 in conference play, winning the East going away.
Out West, Toledo and Western Michigan on paper are neck-and-neck, but the Rockets have a major schedule advantage as they draw Western (72) and Northern Illinois (90) at home, while the Broncos of Kalamazoo must travel to Toledo (73), Ohio (78), and Northern Illinois (90). This explains the major difference in Division odds (55% to 33%). It should come as no surprise that all my methods suggest both Ohio and Toledo will run the table and face each other in the MAC title game, where Toledo would be the favorite.
As for notable non-conference chances to make a mark, Toledo opens the season at Kentucky (45) and hosts BYU (48) in late September. I project them to lose both to finish at 10-2, but a win in either game could put them in the Cotton Bowl discussion, especially if that win is in Lexington. As for Ohio, their only Power 5 opponent is Pitt (55) which is likely going to move the needle much, even if they win. Overall, getting a MAC team to the Cotton Bowl looks like a long shot.
Sunbelt
Finally, it's time for the Funbelt. The final preseason summary table of the year is shown below (sorry independents...).
Just based on the pure odds, the Funbelt looks like a 2-team race between App State (49) and Arkansas State (83) with the Mountaineers as the clear favorite. Those two teams do not meet in the regular season.
In the East, App State's odds (79%) are clearly strong, but Troy is a threat. App State has to go on the road to face the Trojans in the final game of the regular season, and the Trojans have the schedule to make that a winner take all affair. My simulation still likes the Mountaineers, but Troy has a path.
In the West, Arkansas State (83) does draw the second best team in their Division (Louisiana-Lafayette, 97) at home, but they also have to travel to Troy, which projects as a loss. That said, despite the lower odds to win their Division (75%) compared to App State, I see less of a path for a team like one of the Louisiana schools to make a run at the Title. Either way, though, Arkansas State is likely to be the underdog to either App State or Troy in the Sunbelt Title game.
As for non-conference opportunities, my projected Sunbelt champ, Appalachian State, has dates set against both North (66) and South Carolina (23). While I project losses in both of those contests, again, a win or two there would not be unheard of and that would put them into the Cotton Bowl discussion. Arkansas State travels to Georgia (3). Good luck with that. Meanwhile, Troy's chance to make the headlines comes in early October at Missouri (19). We will see if anyone from the Sunbelt can give someone a not-so-fun weekend.
So, that does it for the conference-by-conference analysis this year. In the 5th and final installment of this series, I will summary what I have projected so far, and extract from that my NY6 and Playoff predictions. Until then, I will leave only the truly hard-core college football fans with an Appendix of sorts with the remaining corrected win matrices and the group of five over / under charts. Enjoy and Go Green.
Appendix
The over for Cincinnati looks reasonable, as does the under on Navy and USF.
The Vegas odds for the Mountain West agree with my math pretty well.
Marshall looks like a decent over bet, while I might consider the under for FAU.
The MAC over/under values all look reasonable to me
In the Sunbelt, Troy might be a good under belt, while Georgia State looks like an "under."
I really appreciate your support on this.
ReplyDeleteLook forward to hearing from you soon.
I’m happy to answer your questions, if you have any.
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