Over the past 5 days, I have provided a detailed mathematical analysis of the upcoming college football season. In general, my analysis of each conference ended with my projections for each conference's winner. Today, in the final installment of this series, I will put all the pieces together to make my final projections of which teams will make the Playoffs and the other New Years Six Bowl Games. First, I will start with a review of my projections for each conference's Title game. The record after each team is their projected record after the conference championship game.
- Big Ten: Michigan (11-2) over Nebraska (11-2)
- SEC: Georgia (12-1) over LSU (9-4)
- ACC: Clemson (13-0) over Miami (10-3)
- Big 12: Oklahoma (13-0) over Iowa State (10-3)
- Pac 12: Washington (12-1) over USC (8-5)
- AAC: Cincinnati (11-2) over Memphis (12-1)
- MWest: Boise State (11-2) over San Diego State (11-2)
- C-USA: LA Tech (10-3) over Florida Atlantic (9-4)
- MAC: Toledo (11-2) over Ohio (10-3)
- Sunbelt: Appalachian State (11-2) over Arkansas State (9-4)
This is the part in my analysis where some level of subjectivity is needed. I can and have generated a list of game outcomes using a mathematically consistent framework. But, in order to place teams in the Playoffs and NY6 Bowls, one needs to project what the committee would do in this specific scenario. That said, based on the assumed results above, I think the Top 3 teams are pretty clear. So, the challenges that remain are ranking those 3 teams, picking the 4th, and the sorting the remaining teams into the other four bowls.
At the top, I have Clemson and Oklahoma finishing undefeated and as conference champs. So, it seems like a no-brainer that they will be ranked 1 and 2 in my hypothetical scenario. After that, SEC Champ Georgia is sitting at 12-1, as is Pac 12 Champ Washington. Big Ten Chump Michigan is at 11-2 in this Universe.
One step below that would be the Power Five teams with 10 or more wins. That would include Missouri (11-1), Nebraska (11-2), Ohio State (10-2), Utah (10-2), Miami (10-3), and Iowa State (10-3). There are an additional 16 teams that I project to finish at 9-3 from the Power 5, including Alabama, Florida, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Florida State and several others.
Much like creating the S-curve for the NCAA Basketball Tournament, it is useful to look at each team's good wins and loses to help in ranking them. For reference I am showing each team's preseason rank and projected final record:
- Clemson: best wins: Texas A&M (10, 9-3), @South Carolina (23, 6-6), Florida State (28, 10-2), Miami (22, 10-3). No losses
- Oklahoma: best wins: Texas (17, 8-4), Iowa State 2x (26, 10-3), and UCLA (44, 5-7). No losses
- Georgia: best wins: Florida (7, 8-4), Notre Dame (9, 9-3), Texas A&M (10, 9-3). Loses: at Auburn (11, 8-4)
- Michigan: best wins: Ohio State (8, 10-2), Notre Dame (9, 9-3), Michigan State (16, 9-3), Iowa (18, 9-3). Loses: @Penn State (15, 9-3), @ Wisconsin (21, 9-3)
- Washington: best wins: Oregon (12, 8-4), Utah (13, 10-2), Washington State (23, 9-3). Loses: @Stanford (29, 9-3)
Based on this information, I honestly think the ranking is pretty straightforward. Both Clemson and Oklahoma are undefeated with quality wins, and I think Clemson's wins are more impressive. You have to rank those teams #1 and #2. Georgia has one loss, but wins over three Top 10 opponents, and they are in the SEC, so they are obviously going to get the benefit of the doubt and given the 3-seed. I could even see the committee giving the Sooners the 2-seed, but there is no practical difference between the two.
The only other challenge is picking between Michigan and Washington for the last spot, as none of the other non-champions appear to have a legitimate claim, in my opinion. As much as it pains me, if Michigan actually did beat all of those teams on this list, I think that they would get the nod over Washington, even with one more loss. If nothing else, looking at that resume should reinforce to everyone exactly how unlikely it is that Michigan would actually accomplish that.
Based on the NY6 Bowl rotation, the two Playoff Bowls are the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl and the geographic match-up is obvious:
Peach Bowl: #1 Clemson vs. #4 Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Georgia
For the remaining four bowls, three of them are the so-called contract bowls, so there is actually not a lot of wiggle room in the selection of the teams. As the Pac-12 Champ, Washington automatically goes to the Rose Bowl to face the 2nd best Big Ten team. In this scenario, both Nebraska (11-2) and Ohio State (10-2) would have legitimate claims. But, in my simulated scenario, Nebraska actually beats OSU in Lincoln and has one more win. Also, with Washington having a guaranteed spot in in the Rose Bowl, placing the Huskers there as opposed to the Buckeyes would avoid a rematch of last year's game. Finally, Nebraska has never played in Pasadena as a member of the Big Ten. So, that seems like an obvious pick to me.
As for the Sugar Bowl, it is contracted to the Big 12 and SEC. By rule, as I now understand it, the Sugar Bowl essentially has to take the loser of the Big 12 Title game, which is Iowa State in this Universe. As for the SEC side, the Sugar Bowl would need to take the next highest ranked SEC team, which in this scenario is probably Missouri (believe it or not) as they would be 11-1.
The Orange Bowl is obligated to take the next highest ranked ACC team to face the highest ranked remaining team from the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame. From the ACC side, it looks like that would either be Miami at 10-3 or Florida State at 9-3, although FSU would have the head-to-head win over the Canes. This one might come down simply to style points, but I will give the nod to Miami, as I favor the Division Champ and there are the higher ranked team on paper. For the other Orange Bowl opponent, I think a 10-2 Ohio State squad would likely be the highest rated, although Alabama (9-3) would be tough to ignore, obviously.
The last slots to fill would be the ones for the Cotton Bowl, which is free to pick the highest ranked remaining team to face the Group of Five Champion. Utah at 10-2 would be the team with the best record, and I would give them the nod. From the Group of 5, all of the Champions project to have at least 2 loses, so the decision is a bit tricky. Boise State and Cincinnati are the mostly likely candidates, as they come from the strongest conferences. If we compare their resumes:
Now, history has shown that the scenario that I outlined above will almost certainly not come true. One thing that I have learned over the years of study sports statistics is that sports are far more unpredictable than we give them credit for. However, I always find value is going through this exercise because I think it does help me at least to better understand the entire landscape and which outcomes are more or less likely.
For my closing thoughts, I just wanted to highlight some a couple of questions I have for this season and some of the key games that I see impacting the overall college football landscape:
1) What is really going to happen in the SEC?
My analysis has LSU winning the East with 2 conference losses, but is that really going to happen? While the SEC West has 4 teams in the Top 11 based on the preseason magazines, is that really true? It just seems more likely that one of those teams is going to rise above the rest of finish no worse than 7-1. That team is still likely to be Alabama, but it could be LSU, Auburn, or A&M. If that happens, the odds of the SEC getting 2 Playoff spots is once again on the table. Considering I think Oklahoma and Clemson are probable to go undefeated, both the Pac 12 and the Big 10 could wind up getting shut out again this year.
In general, I count 11 SEC games that involve the combinations of Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Florida. I essentially assume that the home team in going to win all 11 of those games, but that result is extremely unlikely. The SEC teams that can score road wins over tough opponents will automatically get a leg up on the competition.
2) What is really going to happen in the Big Ten?
Similar to the SEC, the Big Ten race could be wide open. Any of the 12 games between Michigan, Ohio State, MSU, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Iowa are going to be wars and all of them will impact the Big Ten and the national picture. Again, any road team that steals a win in those 12 games will gain a major benefit. Michigan and Nebraska do seem to have an advantage on the schedule, but if road teams start picking up wins, the whole race gets blown open.
That said, I could list all 23 of those SEC and Big Ten games below as potentially impact-full, but I will instead focus on the following:
The only other challenge is picking between Michigan and Washington for the last spot, as none of the other non-champions appear to have a legitimate claim, in my opinion. As much as it pains me, if Michigan actually did beat all of those teams on this list, I think that they would get the nod over Washington, even with one more loss. If nothing else, looking at that resume should reinforce to everyone exactly how unlikely it is that Michigan would actually accomplish that.
Based on the NY6 Bowl rotation, the two Playoff Bowls are the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl and the geographic match-up is obvious:
Peach Bowl: #1 Clemson vs. #4 Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Georgia
For the remaining four bowls, three of them are the so-called contract bowls, so there is actually not a lot of wiggle room in the selection of the teams. As the Pac-12 Champ, Washington automatically goes to the Rose Bowl to face the 2nd best Big Ten team. In this scenario, both Nebraska (11-2) and Ohio State (10-2) would have legitimate claims. But, in my simulated scenario, Nebraska actually beats OSU in Lincoln and has one more win. Also, with Washington having a guaranteed spot in in the Rose Bowl, placing the Huskers there as opposed to the Buckeyes would avoid a rematch of last year's game. Finally, Nebraska has never played in Pasadena as a member of the Big Ten. So, that seems like an obvious pick to me.
As for the Sugar Bowl, it is contracted to the Big 12 and SEC. By rule, as I now understand it, the Sugar Bowl essentially has to take the loser of the Big 12 Title game, which is Iowa State in this Universe. As for the SEC side, the Sugar Bowl would need to take the next highest ranked SEC team, which in this scenario is probably Missouri (believe it or not) as they would be 11-1.
The Orange Bowl is obligated to take the next highest ranked ACC team to face the highest ranked remaining team from the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame. From the ACC side, it looks like that would either be Miami at 10-3 or Florida State at 9-3, although FSU would have the head-to-head win over the Canes. This one might come down simply to style points, but I will give the nod to Miami, as I favor the Division Champ and there are the higher ranked team on paper. For the other Orange Bowl opponent, I think a 10-2 Ohio State squad would likely be the highest rated, although Alabama (9-3) would be tough to ignore, obviously.
The last slots to fill would be the ones for the Cotton Bowl, which is free to pick the highest ranked remaining team to face the Group of Five Champion. Utah at 10-2 would be the team with the best record, and I would give them the nod. From the Group of 5, all of the Champions project to have at least 2 loses, so the decision is a bit tricky. Boise State and Cincinnati are the mostly likely candidates, as they come from the strongest conferences. If we compare their resumes:
- Cincinnati: best wins: UCF (25, 11-1), Memphis (41, 12-1), UCLA (44, 5-7). Loses: @ Ohio State (8, 10-2) and @ Memphis (41, 12-1)
- Boise State: best wins: Utah State (58, 7-5) and San Diego State (64, 11-2). Loses: Florida State (28, 9-3) and @ BYU (48, 7-5)
- Rose Bowl: Washington (14) over Nebraska (27)
- Sugar Bowl: Missouri (19) over Iowa State (26)
- Orange Bowl: Ohio State (8) over Miami (22)
- Cotton Bowl: Utah (13) over Cincinnati (38)
- Peach Bowl: Clemson (2) over Michigan (5) [obviously]
- Fiesta Bowl: Georgia (3) over Oklahoma (6)
Now, history has shown that the scenario that I outlined above will almost certainly not come true. One thing that I have learned over the years of study sports statistics is that sports are far more unpredictable than we give them credit for. However, I always find value is going through this exercise because I think it does help me at least to better understand the entire landscape and which outcomes are more or less likely.
For my closing thoughts, I just wanted to highlight some a couple of questions I have for this season and some of the key games that I see impacting the overall college football landscape:
1) What is really going to happen in the SEC?
My analysis has LSU winning the East with 2 conference losses, but is that really going to happen? While the SEC West has 4 teams in the Top 11 based on the preseason magazines, is that really true? It just seems more likely that one of those teams is going to rise above the rest of finish no worse than 7-1. That team is still likely to be Alabama, but it could be LSU, Auburn, or A&M. If that happens, the odds of the SEC getting 2 Playoff spots is once again on the table. Considering I think Oklahoma and Clemson are probable to go undefeated, both the Pac 12 and the Big 10 could wind up getting shut out again this year.
In general, I count 11 SEC games that involve the combinations of Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Florida. I essentially assume that the home team in going to win all 11 of those games, but that result is extremely unlikely. The SEC teams that can score road wins over tough opponents will automatically get a leg up on the competition.
2) What is really going to happen in the Big Ten?
Similar to the SEC, the Big Ten race could be wide open. Any of the 12 games between Michigan, Ohio State, MSU, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Iowa are going to be wars and all of them will impact the Big Ten and the national picture. Again, any road team that steals a win in those 12 games will gain a major benefit. Michigan and Nebraska do seem to have an advantage on the schedule, but if road teams start picking up wins, the whole race gets blown open.
That said, I could list all 23 of those SEC and Big Ten games below as potentially impact-full, but I will instead focus on the following:
- 09/21: Utah at USC. It won't be obvious at the time, but this game might decide the Pac 12 South and a Utah win could put the Utes in the Playoff conversation.
- 09/21: Oregon at Stanford. The Ducks will need to win on the road to stay in the North race.
- 09/28: Ohio State at Nebraska. If the Buckeyes can avoid an upset here, it might be clear sailing until their date with the Wolverines (unless MSU takes them out a week later). If the Buckeyes are undefeated going into the final weekend, I think the Wolverines will already be too far behind to win the East. This subtly is one of the most important Big Ten games of the season.
- 10/05: UCF at Cincinnati. Based on my analysis the winner of this game is bound for the Cotton Bowl
- 10/05: Virginia Tech at Miami. If Miami were to drop a home game to a school from Virginia, the balance of power in the Coastal Division would shift to the winner.
- 10/12: Virginia at Miami. See above
- 10/12: Florida State at Clemson: If anyone is going to prevent Clemson from winning the ACC and claiming a playoff spot, this is likely the best chance. An FSU win puts the Seminoles in the driver's seat for the Atlantic Division.
- 10/19: Oregon at Washington. The Duck's Pac-12 North Title dreams could come to an end before Halloween if they lose in Seattle.
- 11/02: Georgia vs. Florida. If the Gator can win this one, the SEC East becomes wide open, and that could send shock-waves across the entire country. This is perhaps the most important game in the SEC this year. (Although LSU at Alabama will also have a big impact...)
- 11/30: Notre Dame at Stanford. An Irish win here might be enough to get the Irish back to the Orange Bowl or the Cotton Bowl.
- 12/07: Big 12 Championship Game. While all championship games are important, the Big 12 Championship Game may provide the most drama. I really don't think that it is at all likely that Oklahoma finishes below 2nd place. But, I am also not sure that their resume is strong enough for the Playoffs if they lose this game.
Well, that does it for this year. Now, all that is left is the wait until the first kick-off. Until then, Enjoy, and Go Green.
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