Throughout the off-season, on the offensive side of the ball at least, the operative word was "change." The offensive coordinator was changed. Many of the position coaches changed their responsibilities. The scheme was going to change. The offense was reported to have to won all the August camp scrimmages. That was a change. The players, many of whom had found enough success to win 10 games in 2017 were supposed to back and healthy for a change. Change was in the air. So, when I walked into Spartan Stadium Friday night I hoped... perhaps expected to see something different.
Unfortunately, sometimes the more things change, the more they stay the same.
In general, I am a pretty optimistic MSU fan. In addition, I am not going to claim that I know a ton about the X's and O's. But to my untrained eye, I saw a lot of things about Friday night's performance that seemed all too similar to last year.
The offense only managed to put the ball in the end-zone once. The running game was a revolving door of running backs, none of whom really flashed, and none of whom got a lot of help from the O-line. Lewerke was just OK, as were the WR and TEs. There were a ton of unforced errors and penalties, and although the defense was truly outstanding... they still game up one drive for a TD.
Isn't that pretty much exactly how we lost the Redbox Bowl?
Same.
As a stats / numbers guy, the thing that really stood out to me was three overall stats:
Rushing Offense: 2.7 yd/carry
Passing Offense: 5.1 yd/pass
Total Offense: 3.9 yd/play
Those are all numbers that will not put your offense in the Top 125 of 130 FBS teams, and MSU did that against a Group of Five defense. If MSU has any hope to achieve any of its goals this season, that is going to need to change.
Now, that is a bit more gloom-and-doom that you are likely used to getting from me. After all, MSU never trailed, the second half was pretty much stress free, and MSU actually did cover the opening spread of 20. But, I suppose that I need to show that I am not a total homer all the time. I personally use numbers to try to remove my own bias as much as possible. I don't think that there is any way to hide from this one. The offensive numbers on Friday night were just plain terrible.
But, there is always a counter-point. There are lots of possible explanations / excuses as to why the stats were so bad. It was the first game. MSU had to shuffle the offensive line AGAIN due to injuries (very "same.") Tulsa had a lot of returning starters on defense and play a slightly tricky scheme. Some or all of those factors contributed. But, at this point, it really doesn't matter if these are excuses or explanations. The only thing that matters is this:
Is the offense going to get better or not?
Your guess is essentially as good as mine on that one. I am certainly of the opinion that the majority of the problem is the offensive line. If that area can get fixed, I think that the offensive can get to a level of serviceable that will be good enough to win a lot of games this year. The health situation at the left tackle position is a MAJOR concern. At this point, I think that it is fair to ask if we are are ever going to see Chewins on the field again, and Acuri has also seems to have the injury bug. If there is no answer here, I think we are in trouble, honestly.
As for the rest of the operation, I think that it is best to fall back on the old adage that the best predictor of future performance is past performance. MSU's staff has won multiple championships. They have taken offensive line groups with less talent and turned them into winning units. A large percentage of the current roster won 10 teams just 2 years ago. This year, the defense looks elite. The offensive doesn't need to be Top 30 or even Top 60 to wrack up a lot of Ws. The coaches have the proven experience and pieces that have shown that they can win. That is not a guarantee of success; it's just an honest analysis of reality.
I mean... it's not like we have a program that hasn't won a title in 15 years, is 1-17 against the Top 10 in the last 10 years, don't have a Top 20 road in the last 12 seasons, and can't consistently beat any of our rivals, yet still seem to think that we are a Playoff Contender and the Alabama of the North. That just sounds like fantasy-land talk. At least we aren't stupid enough to believe that...
Ah... the more things change, the more they stay the same...
National Overview
Under normal circumstances, I would hold the final analysis of the weekend until all the games are played. However, this year I would like to try to get the data out a bit faster, so that means that this week my analysis is not going to include the two remaining games (Houston at Oklahoma, which finished as I was typing this up, and Louisville at Notre Dame). As for the other games, the following chart shows the results as compared to the opening Vegas lines.
As you can see, the scatter in this plot is pretty significant, but it is completely normal. This year, I have adjusted the dashed lines to be a +/- 14 points, which is the standard deviation of the actual game result to the Vegas line, historically. As you can see, about 1/3 of the games fall outside this range. I am also going to label more of the points this year, just to provide more information. In general, I think that this visualization is the best way to get a feel for the teams that over and under-achieved for the week.
(Programming note: This year I am going to change my format a bit in my recap posts. Change is in the air. Instead of a look at each conference in the recap, I am just going to make some overall observations here, but did a little more details in the stats area. I think that is will be more efficient and less redundant. I hope the transition is smoother than the transition to the Brad Salem offense.)
As for the major story lines from the weekend, here are my quick takes:
Unfortunately, sometimes the more things change, the more they stay the same.
In general, I am a pretty optimistic MSU fan. In addition, I am not going to claim that I know a ton about the X's and O's. But to my untrained eye, I saw a lot of things about Friday night's performance that seemed all too similar to last year.
The offense only managed to put the ball in the end-zone once. The running game was a revolving door of running backs, none of whom really flashed, and none of whom got a lot of help from the O-line. Lewerke was just OK, as were the WR and TEs. There were a ton of unforced errors and penalties, and although the defense was truly outstanding... they still game up one drive for a TD.
Isn't that pretty much exactly how we lost the Redbox Bowl?
Same.
As a stats / numbers guy, the thing that really stood out to me was three overall stats:
Rushing Offense: 2.7 yd/carry
Passing Offense: 5.1 yd/pass
Total Offense: 3.9 yd/play
Those are all numbers that will not put your offense in the Top 125 of 130 FBS teams, and MSU did that against a Group of Five defense. If MSU has any hope to achieve any of its goals this season, that is going to need to change.
Now, that is a bit more gloom-and-doom that you are likely used to getting from me. After all, MSU never trailed, the second half was pretty much stress free, and MSU actually did cover the opening spread of 20. But, I suppose that I need to show that I am not a total homer all the time. I personally use numbers to try to remove my own bias as much as possible. I don't think that there is any way to hide from this one. The offensive numbers on Friday night were just plain terrible.
But, there is always a counter-point. There are lots of possible explanations / excuses as to why the stats were so bad. It was the first game. MSU had to shuffle the offensive line AGAIN due to injuries (very "same.") Tulsa had a lot of returning starters on defense and play a slightly tricky scheme. Some or all of those factors contributed. But, at this point, it really doesn't matter if these are excuses or explanations. The only thing that matters is this:
Is the offense going to get better or not?
Your guess is essentially as good as mine on that one. I am certainly of the opinion that the majority of the problem is the offensive line. If that area can get fixed, I think that the offensive can get to a level of serviceable that will be good enough to win a lot of games this year. The health situation at the left tackle position is a MAJOR concern. At this point, I think that it is fair to ask if we are are ever going to see Chewins on the field again, and Acuri has also seems to have the injury bug. If there is no answer here, I think we are in trouble, honestly.
As for the rest of the operation, I think that it is best to fall back on the old adage that the best predictor of future performance is past performance. MSU's staff has won multiple championships. They have taken offensive line groups with less talent and turned them into winning units. A large percentage of the current roster won 10 teams just 2 years ago. This year, the defense looks elite. The offensive doesn't need to be Top 30 or even Top 60 to wrack up a lot of Ws. The coaches have the proven experience and pieces that have shown that they can win. That is not a guarantee of success; it's just an honest analysis of reality.
I mean... it's not like we have a program that hasn't won a title in 15 years, is 1-17 against the Top 10 in the last 10 years, don't have a Top 20 road in the last 12 seasons, and can't consistently beat any of our rivals, yet still seem to think that we are a Playoff Contender and the Alabama of the North. That just sounds like fantasy-land talk. At least we aren't stupid enough to believe that...
Ah... the more things change, the more they stay the same...
National Overview
Under normal circumstances, I would hold the final analysis of the weekend until all the games are played. However, this year I would like to try to get the data out a bit faster, so that means that this week my analysis is not going to include the two remaining games (Houston at Oklahoma, which finished as I was typing this up, and Louisville at Notre Dame). As for the other games, the following chart shows the results as compared to the opening Vegas lines.
As you can see, the scatter in this plot is pretty significant, but it is completely normal. This year, I have adjusted the dashed lines to be a +/- 14 points, which is the standard deviation of the actual game result to the Vegas line, historically. As you can see, about 1/3 of the games fall outside this range. I am also going to label more of the points this year, just to provide more information. In general, I think that this visualization is the best way to get a feel for the teams that over and under-achieved for the week.
(Programming note: This year I am going to change my format a bit in my recap posts. Change is in the air. Instead of a look at each conference in the recap, I am just going to make some overall observations here, but did a little more details in the stats area. I think that is will be more efficient and less redundant. I hope the transition is smoother than the transition to the Brad Salem offense.)
As for the major story lines from the weekend, here are my quick takes:
- In my view, the biggest story of the weekend might just be Wisconsin's dismantling of a decent USF team 49-0, which propelling the Badgers to #3 in my Power Rankings. In those same rankings, OSU and UofM actually slipped a bit, while MSU stood pat.
- Of the 9 upsets in Week 0/1, 3 of them happened to SEC teams, including losses by Tennessee, Missouri, and Ole Miss (which was not an upset, based on the spread). Is the SEC showing some potential weakness? The Georgia State upset of Tennessee, considering it was a 25.5 point spread, might wind up being the biggest upset of the year, as my data suggests that a spread of 26 is exactly at the "once a year" level of upset frequency, based on historical numbers.
- With as many upsets involving SEC teams, the ACC actually had one more (4 total), so things are perhaps going to be more chaotic then expected. Virginia, in particular now looks like the biggest threat to Miami in the Coastal Division. That said, I still expect a Clemson-Miami title game.
- Iowa State was supposed to be a threat to Oklahoma is the Big 12, and then the Cyclones went out and almost lost to FCS Northern Iowa. Oklahoma's road to the Playoffs is looking easier every day.
- Pac-12 teams lost 4 games this weekend, but only one of them (Hawaii over Arizona) was a true upset. Oregon failed at the last minute to score a major victory for the league over Auburn. The jury is still out as to whether they will be at all relevant.
- On Thursday night, I was ready to crown Cincinnati as the favorite to get the Group of Five Cotton Bowl bid, but then Boise State came back to upset Florida State. The Bronco's next toughest game is at BYU, and they have a legit chance to go 13-0. UCF and Cinci might need another upset win over Stanford or Ohio State to tip the balance back in their favor.
Upset and ATS Performance:
In my weekly preview, I usually provide a few upset picks and picks against the spread (ATS). Overall, my model didn't do great, as it only went 19-24 ATS in the 43 games that has completed so far (44%). But, I will note that this is slightly better than the FPI's 17-26 (40%).
But, I only recommended 6 total picks against the spread, and I went 4-2 on those, at least against the opening spread. MSU was one of those contests. Based on my source, MSU opened at -20 and won by 21. Most places had the spread around 22 or 23 by kick-off, so this pick was a bit tricky. Similarly, I have the FPI as going 4-1 in my recommended picks based on my analysis of its accuracy over time. (I failed to include that in my Week 1 Preview, but I did Tweet it out mid-week). However, most of those covers were also just by a point or two, and I am not sure if the line moved or not.
All I can say is that I made the decision years ago to only track the opening spread and to pull the data from the same source (the prediction tracker website). Sometimes that works out in my favor and sometimes it doesn't. But, it is far more important to use consistent methodology.
Finally, as for upsets, the following table summarizes the picks and actual results:
My algorithm went 1 for 2, while the FPI went o-fer 3. Overall, there were a total of 9 upsets, which was quite consistent with the 8.25 that my simulation predicted.
Metrics Update
Back in the summer, I presented my full prediction for the Big Ten race, including percentages for each team to win their Division, the conference, and make the playoffs. After this week's action, I finally have new data to input to see how things change. But, this data update comes with a TON of caveats. The only information that my formulas have to work with are the preseason rankings and the result of a single game, which I now weight equally. So, things are going to be a bit erratic for a few weeks until more data accumulates. Still, I will present the current results for the Big Ten only. Here are the updated odds to win the Big Ten, based on my algorithm:
Also, here is the updated expected win totals, both overall and just in conference play:
As you can see, the math has changed the picture quite a bit. Basically, my algorithm now predicts that Penn State is the favorite in the East, while Wisconsin is now the favorite in the West and overall.
To understand why, the easiest place to look is at the updated rankings. Penn State didn't actually move up much at all. Actually, since their win this week was over an FCS team (which I do not use in my calculations), they essentially didn't change. However, MSU slipped just slightly, and UofM and OSU both dropped a little more. As a result, Penn State's position in the East rose enough for my math to give them a 40% chance to win the Division. MSU's odds actually went up to 22%, just behind OSU (25%) and ahead of Michigan (13%).
In the West, Wisconsin's huge win over USF gave a huge boost to their odds, pushing them all the way to 84%. While I do not personally put a lot of faith into this data now, the results are certainly interesting, and it will be fun to follow these trends over the weeks. As for right now, I don't think that it is much to worry about.
As for MSU, the result of Friday night did slightly depress MSU's predicted overall and conference win totals, but only by a few tenths of a game. MSU is still projected to be favored in 8 of the remaining 11 games, with the three under-dog games still predicted to by at Wisconsin, at Michigan, and at Ohio State. The only difference is that MSU is now a big underdog at Wisconsin (-11.5), but only projected to be a slight underdog to both Ohio State (-2.5) and Michigan (-1).
Finally, here are the updated projected spreads for the next few games:
vs. Western Michigan (+21.8) (I think it opened a +17)
vs. Arizona State (+8.1)
at Northwestern (+5.7)
vs. Indiana (+18.4)
Obviously, it's early and a lot can change.
Finally, just for fun, here is my algorithm's current Top 25
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Wisconsin
4 LSU
5 Utah
6 Auburn
7 Oklahoma
8 Clemson
9 Florida
10 Notre Dame
11 Washington
12 Texas A&M
13 Penn State
14 Syracuse
15 Oregon
16 Stanford
17 Michigan State
18 Texas
19 Ohio State
20 Miami (FL)
21 Washington State
22 Michigan
23 Virginia
24 UCF
25 Iowa State
That is all for now. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Broncos!
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