So, how was your Labor Day weekend everyone? Good? I am not sure about everyone, but I personally like the Friday night time slot in Week 1. It frees up the whole rest of the weekend for time with the family and it also frees up time to be able to see a lot of the college football action on Saturday. After watching MSU's offense struggle on Saturday, if was a bit of a palette cleanser to watch several other teams perhaps also not perform at their peak efficiency. If nothing else, I think a having a little extra time for reflection on the game was helpful.
However, not to beat a dead horse, but MSU's offense was still pretty bad last weekend. I have accepted that. But, MSU is still 1-0 and what matters is the future, not the past. While there were a lot of bad plays on the offensive side of the ball, there were some positive moments as well, and that gives my optimistic brain enough fodder to believe that MSU's offense can get to the level of serviceability needed to have a good season. Bases on what we heard straight from the horse's mouth in Tuesday's press conference, I think Coach Dantonio is just as frustrated as the fans are and thinks that they can do much better. The next step is in this process will take place this coming Saturday in Spartan Stadium as the Western Michigan Broncos come to town.
To put things simply, MSU needs to Bust the Broncos.
The majority of the busting is likely to be performed by the defense. It's kind of their jam. I heard that WMU's offense put up something like 10,000 yard of offense against Monmouth and look real pretty. Yeah... I mean no disrespect, but I simply don't care. We must break them, Ivan Drago style. Meanwhile, the MSU offense needs to get back on the horse and prove that they can still ride. It has honestly been so long since we have seen a competent offense, that I am struggling to recall what one looks like.
As I think about this week's game, I have a few numbers in mind for what I would like to see. I usually don't do this, but I think it is helpful to set some performance targets. Ideally, I would like:
However, not to beat a dead horse, but MSU's offense was still pretty bad last weekend. I have accepted that. But, MSU is still 1-0 and what matters is the future, not the past. While there were a lot of bad plays on the offensive side of the ball, there were some positive moments as well, and that gives my optimistic brain enough fodder to believe that MSU's offense can get to the level of serviceability needed to have a good season. Bases on what we heard straight from the horse's mouth in Tuesday's press conference, I think Coach Dantonio is just as frustrated as the fans are and thinks that they can do much better. The next step is in this process will take place this coming Saturday in Spartan Stadium as the Western Michigan Broncos come to town.
To put things simply, MSU needs to Bust the Broncos.
The majority of the busting is likely to be performed by the defense. It's kind of their jam. I heard that WMU's offense put up something like 10,000 yard of offense against Monmouth and look real pretty. Yeah... I mean no disrespect, but I simply don't care. We must break them, Ivan Drago style. Meanwhile, the MSU offense needs to get back on the horse and prove that they can still ride. It has honestly been so long since we have seen a competent offense, that I am struggling to recall what one looks like.
As I think about this week's game, I have a few numbers in mind for what I would like to see. I usually don't do this, but I think it is helpful to set some performance targets. Ideally, I would like:
- A passing offense that achieves over 8.0 yd/pass. This is in line with how the passing game performed in the first three games last year... and hasn't since.
- A rushing offense that achieve over 4.2 yd/rush. Note that this is NOT a good number. That is only good enough to by a Top 80 rushing team. Based on last week's performance, I am not sure this is a reasonable goal. I don't care. MSU needs to saddle up and be at least competent on the ground.
- I want to see MSU cover the spread (-17.5), I want to see the offense score 3 TDs, and I want the offense to have to move the ball at least 50 yards on each TD drive, not counting opponent penalty yardage.
- I also want the starting defense to give up no more than 1 TD.
Is this really too much to ask for from a Top 20 team at home against a MAC opponent, even if it is the top rated team in the MAC? Am I betting on the wrong horse with these expectations? I don't think so. Realistically, I don't know if MSU will achieve more than one or two of those targets, but that it what I am looking for. It is always good to have a target.
OK, perhaps that is enough horsing around... so let's turn to:
National Overview
The chart below compares my machine picks to the opening Vegas lines
As usual, there is a pretty good agreement between my projections and Vegas, with a few variations. For comparison this week, here is the same chart, but in this case I am plotting the pick's from ESPN's FPI vs. the Vegas Line.
As you can see, the FPI correlates a little better than my model to Vegas, and there are some interesting differences in the two plots. In both cases, the dotted lines define the thresholds where I have seen a consistently good performance against the spread for both models. With this information, I have the following suggested bets for this week, based again on the opening line.
From my model:
In Week 2, there still quite a few games that should be walk-overs for the conference. Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, and Wisconsin are all 20+ favorites over low-level competition. The first Big Ten conference game of the year, Rutgers at Iowa (-20.5) also falls into this category. Technically, so does Michigan's (-23.5) game vs. Army, but I am really interested to see how UofM d-line holds up against Army's relentless and disciplined rushing attack. This week more than ever, it's time to support our troops.
I already mentioned MSU's challenge for the week and Ohio State has a remarkably similar challenge as in-state foe Cincinnati comes to town as a 17-point underdog. Both my algorithm and the FPI like the Bearcats to cover. Despite the fairly large spreads, the math suggests that there is a 25% chance that Ohio State, MSU, or Michigan (or a combination of the three) will lose a game this weekend. I am pulling for Michigan. Ah, if wishes were horses...
Finally, there is a slate of four additional Big Ten games where the spread is under 10 points. Purdue (-9.5) has a shot to claim their first win of the season and an SEC pelt this weekend when Vanderbilt comes to town. After beating up some poor dude named Howard last week (how it that allowed?) Maryland (+2.5) is a home-dog versus Syracuse, which the FPI likes as a upset win for the conference. Meanwhile, both Minnesota (-2.5) and Nebraska (-3.5) are narrow road favorites to west coast teams Fresno State and Colorado this weekend. Sure. What could possibly go wrong?
SEC
The bottom tier of the SEC got off to a hilarious start in Week 1 by wracking up four embarrassing non-conference losses by Tennessee, South Carolina, Missouri, and Ole Miss. A few other teams, notably Arkansas and Mississippi State won, but the contests were a bit close for comfort.
As I look across the schedule for Week 2, there are certainly games that are not likely to provide much drama. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina are facing FCS teams, while Alabama is a hilariously huge 54-point favorite over New Mexico State. Based on my records, that is the 4th largest spread since 2001 and the odds of an upset are around 1 in 15,000.
Then, excluding the sole conference game of the week (Arkansas at Ole Miss [-7.5]) and the Purdue vs. Vandy (+9.5) match mentioned above, there is a collection of games that would all look just a little bit scary to me if I were an SEC fan. Specially, in order of less to more scary, we have: Tulane at Auburn (-18), Southern Miss at Mississippi (-16.5), Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (-14), West Virginia at Missouri (-10.5), and BYU at Tennessee (-3). While the Tennessee game is clearly close to a coin flip, my math suggests that the odds are 50-50 that at least one of the other 4 SEC teams that are between 10-20 point favorites will drop a game this weekend.
But, the marquee games of the week, both for the SEC and nationally are the two true road games where LSU (-4.5) travel to Austin to face Texas, and Texas A&M plays a visit to the Clemson Tigers (-19) in Death Valley. Vegas and both my model and the FPI like the SEC to split these two games, but the two computer models also favor both SEC teams to cover.
ACC / Notre Dame
Last week was actually pretty volatile in the ACC as the conference experienced a total of 4 upsets, half of which went in the conference's favor and half which did not. This week, outside of Clemson's (-19) battle with Texas A&M, the action looks like it will be a bit more tame. BC, Duke, Louisville, NC State, and Virginia are all playing FCS teams, while Florida State, VA Tech, and Wake Forest are playing teams ranked outside of the Top 100 of the FBS. Notre Dame is taking the week off entirely.
That only leaves four other games that might get interesting. Miami (-6) will square off with UNC in a battle that may have early Coastal Division race consequences. Otherwise, the ACC has South Florida at Georgia Tech (-6), Ohio at Pitt (-6.5), and Syracuse (-2.5) at Maryland. My collar got a little tighter just typing that, and for good reason. The math says that there is only a 25% chance that the ACC gets 3 wins there.
Big 12
I will say this about the Big 12. They are consistent. Consistent, that is, at scheduling absolutely no one in the non-conference. OK, I did already mention that Texas (+4.5) is host LSU and West Virginia (+10.5) is traveling to Missouri. Good for you. But as for the other either teams, two have byes (TCU and Iowa State) and the other six teams are facing the murderers row of UTSA, Coastal Carolina, Bowling Green, South Dakota, McNeese State, and UTEP. For those scoring at home, those are two FCS teams and four FBS teams, all of which are rank in the bottom 10 teams in the country based on preseason rankings. It honestly sounds difficult to be able to put together such a ridiculously easy schedule.
Pac 12
Despite the fact that the Pac 12 only went 8-4 last week, only the Arizona loss at Hawaii was a true upset, and based on the last few years of incompetence, I would count that alone as win if I were them. This week the state of Arizona and half of the state of Washington are facing FCS opponents, and contenders Oregon (-23) and Utah (-23) are both comfortable favorites over Boiler-slayers Nevada and Northern Illinois, respectively.
In the rest of the non-conference action, things might not go as well. Oregon State is an underdog at Hawaii (-5), as is Colorado as they host Nebraska (-3.5). UCLA (-7) is favored against San Diego State, but my math suggests that they won't cover (the FPI has more faith in the Bruins, though).
That leaves a pair of sneaky interesting conference games. Washington (-12.5) is hosting Cal, which is unlikely to be a problem, but the Huskies cannot afford to blow a chip shot this early. More intriguing is Stanford's road trip to L.A. to face USC (-3.5). This is a cross-division match-up for both teams and the winner will get an instant boost in their respective division race. As the race in the South feels more like a two-horse race between USC and Utah, this one feels bigger for the Trojans, who cannot afford to drop a home game in September either. My math likes the Cardinal in the upset.
Group of Five
The race for the Group of Five NY6 spot in the Cotton Bowl seemed quite wide open a week ago, but already the path seems more narrow. Boise State planted a major flag last weekend by beating Florida State, and that win over-shadowed the similar wins that Cincinnati had over UCLA and Memphis had over Ole Miss. Now, I feel the Cotton Bowl slot is Boise's to lose. If Boise runs the table or only picks up one loss along the way, I think the eventual AAC Champ is the only team with a shot to unseat them.
The three AAC teams that would seem to have the best shot at this are UCF (who travels to Florida Atlantic [+9] this weekend), Memphis (who plays Southern University, an FCS squad) and Cincinnati (who is +17 in Columbus). UCF and Memphis just need to avoid the upset, while Cincinnati has a chance to leap frog Boise with an even more impressive upset win. I should also mention, however, that Boise has a sneaky tricky game vs. Marshall (+12) this week. The other Broncos could easily undo and the good that the did for themselves last week with a poor showing against the Thundering Herd.
Finally, let's all remember to keep an eye on Tulsa this week as they travel to San Jose State (+7) with weekend. It sure would be nice to see them win 49-7 or something, wouldn't it? Hopefully they won't make it their second consecutive loss to the Spartans this season.
That is all for this week. Until next time, enjoy and Go State, Beat the Broncos!
As usual, there is a pretty good agreement between my projections and Vegas, with a few variations. For comparison this week, here is the same chart, but in this case I am plotting the pick's from ESPN's FPI vs. the Vegas Line.
As you can see, the FPI correlates a little better than my model to Vegas, and there are some interesting differences in the two plots. In both cases, the dotted lines define the thresholds where I have seen a consistently good performance against the spread for both models. With this information, I have the following suggested bets for this week, based again on the opening line.
From my model:
- Penn State (-24) to cover vs. Buffalo
- Wisconsin (-34) to cover vs. Central Michigan
- Boise State (-12) to cover vs. Marshall
- Syracuse (-2.5) to cover vs. Maryland
- Appalachian State (-21) to cover vs. Charlotte
- Iowa (-20.5) to cover vs. Rutgers
- Baylor (-26) to cover vs. UTSA
From the FPI:
- Penn State (-24) to cover vs. Buffalo
- UCLA (-7) to cover vs. San Diego State
- Maryland (+2.5) to cover (actually upset) Syracuse
- VA Tech (-26.5) to cover vs. Old Dominion
- Vanderbilt (+9.5) to cover at Purdue
- LSU (-4.5) to cover vs. Texas
- Cincinnati (+17) to cover at Ohio State
- Kentucky (-14) to cover vs. EMU
Interestingly, those two lists only overlap with the Penn State game, and the two models actually disagree about the Maryland / Syracuse game, so I guess that is a bit of a push. Either way, not to be on a high-horse or anything, but my suggested bets for the two models combined went 8-3 last week. Just sayin'.
Also of interest is that for the MSU-Western Michigan game specifically, my model likes MSU to cover by a few points, while the FPI favors WMU to cover. I guess we will see which model is ultimately correct on that one. Either way, the Vegas line (MSU -17.5) suggests that we only have a 10.7% chance of seeing an upset in Spartan Stadium this week.
Speaking of upsets, both models combined only project 5 total upsets, which are summarized both in the charts above and in the table below.
That said, my simulation of the week's 46 games suggest that we will actually observe 9.3 ± 2.6 upsets in Week 2.
Now, let's take a quick spin around the country to see what is in store for Week 2.
Big Ten
Overall, the Big Ten had a good showing last weekend, with only Purdue and Northwestern dropping games on their ill-conceived West coast road trips. Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers. Illinois, and especially Wisconsin all had big wins, while Minnesota, Indiana, MSU, Michigan, and even Ohio State were somewhere between a little and a lot under-whelming.
In Week 2, there still quite a few games that should be walk-overs for the conference. Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, and Wisconsin are all 20+ favorites over low-level competition. The first Big Ten conference game of the year, Rutgers at Iowa (-20.5) also falls into this category. Technically, so does Michigan's (-23.5) game vs. Army, but I am really interested to see how UofM d-line holds up against Army's relentless and disciplined rushing attack. This week more than ever, it's time to support our troops.
I already mentioned MSU's challenge for the week and Ohio State has a remarkably similar challenge as in-state foe Cincinnati comes to town as a 17-point underdog. Both my algorithm and the FPI like the Bearcats to cover. Despite the fairly large spreads, the math suggests that there is a 25% chance that Ohio State, MSU, or Michigan (or a combination of the three) will lose a game this weekend. I am pulling for Michigan. Ah, if wishes were horses...
Finally, there is a slate of four additional Big Ten games where the spread is under 10 points. Purdue (-9.5) has a shot to claim their first win of the season and an SEC pelt this weekend when Vanderbilt comes to town. After beating up some poor dude named Howard last week (how it that allowed?) Maryland (+2.5) is a home-dog versus Syracuse, which the FPI likes as a upset win for the conference. Meanwhile, both Minnesota (-2.5) and Nebraska (-3.5) are narrow road favorites to west coast teams Fresno State and Colorado this weekend. Sure. What could possibly go wrong?
SEC
The bottom tier of the SEC got off to a hilarious start in Week 1 by wracking up four embarrassing non-conference losses by Tennessee, South Carolina, Missouri, and Ole Miss. A few other teams, notably Arkansas and Mississippi State won, but the contests were a bit close for comfort.
As I look across the schedule for Week 2, there are certainly games that are not likely to provide much drama. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina are facing FCS teams, while Alabama is a hilariously huge 54-point favorite over New Mexico State. Based on my records, that is the 4th largest spread since 2001 and the odds of an upset are around 1 in 15,000.
Then, excluding the sole conference game of the week (Arkansas at Ole Miss [-7.5]) and the Purdue vs. Vandy (+9.5) match mentioned above, there is a collection of games that would all look just a little bit scary to me if I were an SEC fan. Specially, in order of less to more scary, we have: Tulane at Auburn (-18), Southern Miss at Mississippi (-16.5), Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (-14), West Virginia at Missouri (-10.5), and BYU at Tennessee (-3). While the Tennessee game is clearly close to a coin flip, my math suggests that the odds are 50-50 that at least one of the other 4 SEC teams that are between 10-20 point favorites will drop a game this weekend.
But, the marquee games of the week, both for the SEC and nationally are the two true road games where LSU (-4.5) travel to Austin to face Texas, and Texas A&M plays a visit to the Clemson Tigers (-19) in Death Valley. Vegas and both my model and the FPI like the SEC to split these two games, but the two computer models also favor both SEC teams to cover.
ACC / Notre Dame
Last week was actually pretty volatile in the ACC as the conference experienced a total of 4 upsets, half of which went in the conference's favor and half which did not. This week, outside of Clemson's (-19) battle with Texas A&M, the action looks like it will be a bit more tame. BC, Duke, Louisville, NC State, and Virginia are all playing FCS teams, while Florida State, VA Tech, and Wake Forest are playing teams ranked outside of the Top 100 of the FBS. Notre Dame is taking the week off entirely.
That only leaves four other games that might get interesting. Miami (-6) will square off with UNC in a battle that may have early Coastal Division race consequences. Otherwise, the ACC has South Florida at Georgia Tech (-6), Ohio at Pitt (-6.5), and Syracuse (-2.5) at Maryland. My collar got a little tighter just typing that, and for good reason. The math says that there is only a 25% chance that the ACC gets 3 wins there.
Big 12
I will say this about the Big 12. They are consistent. Consistent, that is, at scheduling absolutely no one in the non-conference. OK, I did already mention that Texas (+4.5) is host LSU and West Virginia (+10.5) is traveling to Missouri. Good for you. But as for the other either teams, two have byes (TCU and Iowa State) and the other six teams are facing the murderers row of UTSA, Coastal Carolina, Bowling Green, South Dakota, McNeese State, and UTEP. For those scoring at home, those are two FCS teams and four FBS teams, all of which are rank in the bottom 10 teams in the country based on preseason rankings. It honestly sounds difficult to be able to put together such a ridiculously easy schedule.
Pac 12
Despite the fact that the Pac 12 only went 8-4 last week, only the Arizona loss at Hawaii was a true upset, and based on the last few years of incompetence, I would count that alone as win if I were them. This week the state of Arizona and half of the state of Washington are facing FCS opponents, and contenders Oregon (-23) and Utah (-23) are both comfortable favorites over Boiler-slayers Nevada and Northern Illinois, respectively.
In the rest of the non-conference action, things might not go as well. Oregon State is an underdog at Hawaii (-5), as is Colorado as they host Nebraska (-3.5). UCLA (-7) is favored against San Diego State, but my math suggests that they won't cover (the FPI has more faith in the Bruins, though).
That leaves a pair of sneaky interesting conference games. Washington (-12.5) is hosting Cal, which is unlikely to be a problem, but the Huskies cannot afford to blow a chip shot this early. More intriguing is Stanford's road trip to L.A. to face USC (-3.5). This is a cross-division match-up for both teams and the winner will get an instant boost in their respective division race. As the race in the South feels more like a two-horse race between USC and Utah, this one feels bigger for the Trojans, who cannot afford to drop a home game in September either. My math likes the Cardinal in the upset.
Group of Five
The race for the Group of Five NY6 spot in the Cotton Bowl seemed quite wide open a week ago, but already the path seems more narrow. Boise State planted a major flag last weekend by beating Florida State, and that win over-shadowed the similar wins that Cincinnati had over UCLA and Memphis had over Ole Miss. Now, I feel the Cotton Bowl slot is Boise's to lose. If Boise runs the table or only picks up one loss along the way, I think the eventual AAC Champ is the only team with a shot to unseat them.
The three AAC teams that would seem to have the best shot at this are UCF (who travels to Florida Atlantic [+9] this weekend), Memphis (who plays Southern University, an FCS squad) and Cincinnati (who is +17 in Columbus). UCF and Memphis just need to avoid the upset, while Cincinnati has a chance to leap frog Boise with an even more impressive upset win. I should also mention, however, that Boise has a sneaky tricky game vs. Marshall (+12) this week. The other Broncos could easily undo and the good that the did for themselves last week with a poor showing against the Thundering Herd.
Finally, let's all remember to keep an eye on Tulsa this week as they travel to San Jose State (+7) with weekend. It sure would be nice to see them win 49-7 or something, wouldn't it? Hopefully they won't make it their second consecutive loss to the Spartans this season.
That is all for this week. Until next time, enjoy and Go State, Beat the Broncos!
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