First off, I just wanted to thank you for taking the time out of your day to sit down and talk with me this morning. As you know, we are still early in the year, but if we are going to be able to achieve some of the goals that we set together just a few weeks ago for this project, we need to periodically have these check-in meetings to make sure that we are on target. Also, I think that it is fair to say that the year didn't get off to the start that we all wanted in the the first week, and that is why we had to put you on a brief Performance Improvement Plan with some specific targets for the week to make sure that you stay on track.
So, now that we are two weeks into the current project, let's review those targets for last week:
1) Achieve better than 8.0 yd/pass attempt on offense
Your actual result this week was actually 10.0 yd per attempt! That is really great work, honestly. In fact, that is the best single week performance in that area for you in the past 3 years. If you stay at this pace, you would actually have a Top 10 passing offense pretty easily. Definitely keep up the good work here!
2) Achieve better than 4.2 yd/rush attempt offense.
I must be honest with you about this one. We all know that you have been struggling with this task specifically, and so we intentionally set this bar pretty low. But, to all of our delight, you really knocked this one out of the park. You achieved a whopping 7.4 yd/rush this week! Simply amazing! Again, those are Top 10 rushing offense numbers. I mean, I knew that you had it in you, but it is still really satisfying to see you do so very well on a task that you have struggled with. I went back over some of your past performance reviews and I can't find a single week back to 2015 with a performance even over 7.0 yd/rush. Once again, fantastic job!
3) Cover the Spread
The spread was around 16 points and you won by 34. That ranks among the very best in the industry this week. Once again, great job!
4) At least 3 TD from the offense where you drive at least 50 yards, not including penalty yardage.
Again, we thought this one was a real stretch goal, but you nailed it! You actually put up 5 total touchdowns while driving more than 50 yards, and you met your target before the end of the first quarter. Talk about on time and under budget!
Finally, your last target was:
5) No more than 1 TD given up by the 1st string defense
While we know that defense is clearly one of your strengths, we felt that it was necessary to put this target in their just to keep that part of your skill set sharp. Surprisingly, this was the target that you were the closest to not hitting. But, a timely interception sealed the deal. Of course, the 2nd string defense did give up that late touchdown, but that clearly does not count against this target.
In summary, you really had a fantastic week, and I think that you are back on track to meet your goals for the year. Of course, there are some things that you need to continue to work on. First of all, we need to continue to see this kind of consistent performance from the offense. Now that we know that you can do it, we are going to be expecting more out of you. As you know, the challenges will get tougher as this project moves closure to completion. We need you to continue to work hard and always bring your best effort in this area.
Second, while your rushing defense continues to be excellent, we think that there is some room for improvement in the pass defense. You gave up 6.95 yd/pass this week, which is not a bad number, but it is not a great one either. We are confident that you can do a little better here.
But, once again, great job and thank you for all your hard work so far this year. We are really excited to see how the year progresses. As you know, my door is always open if you have questions or concerns. Oh, and before I forget, I heard that you can a question about the dress code this week. I just wanted to tell you that I didn't see anything wrong with what you were wearing. This is a pretty casual work place and what you wore was totally fine. Don't worry about it.
Before you go, I probably shouldn't say this but you will probably hear about it later anyway. I am going to be speaking to your older brother next. As usual, before this project started he was basically shooting his mouth off to all of your colleagues about how he was the best employee here and how he was going to really "crush it" this time. You know how he is... Anyway, I don't know if he has told you, but he is really struggling so far and I not sure what we are going to do about him. But, that's my problem and not yours...
It's funny, because when we hired you, as you know, he already worked here and he actually voiced concern about bringing you onto the team. He said that he didn't think that you could cut it here, but to be honest, you have been out performing him for a long time now. I am starting to wonder if he just always knew that you would show him up. Shoot, I probably shouldn't have told you all of that...
Anyway, I don't want to take any more of your time. Have a good rest of your day and we will talk again soon. Bye now.
National Overview
As usual, here is my chart showing the actual game results in reference to the opening Vegas lines.
At a glance, it is easy to see that some teams clearly over-achieved relative to the spread, namely Kansas State, Baylor, Ohio State, MSU, UCF, Missouri, USC, and SMU. All 8 of those teams were over a standard deviation above the mean (aka, the spread). Also of note is that Tulsa was flirting with the dotted line, which shows that they did quite well ATS this week too.
Meanwhile, the two teams that still won, yet were notable underachievers are none of than Michigan and Florida State. Wow, you hate to see that... Then, there were the 9 upsets of the which, the most notable of which is the Maryland win over Syracuse. It is notable not because it was a big upset, but because of the margin of victory, which was huge. They are a major outlier this week.
That leads in nicely to my quick hit observations for Week 2:
So, now that we are two weeks into the current project, let's review those targets for last week:
1) Achieve better than 8.0 yd/pass attempt on offense
Your actual result this week was actually 10.0 yd per attempt! That is really great work, honestly. In fact, that is the best single week performance in that area for you in the past 3 years. If you stay at this pace, you would actually have a Top 10 passing offense pretty easily. Definitely keep up the good work here!
2) Achieve better than 4.2 yd/rush attempt offense.
I must be honest with you about this one. We all know that you have been struggling with this task specifically, and so we intentionally set this bar pretty low. But, to all of our delight, you really knocked this one out of the park. You achieved a whopping 7.4 yd/rush this week! Simply amazing! Again, those are Top 10 rushing offense numbers. I mean, I knew that you had it in you, but it is still really satisfying to see you do so very well on a task that you have struggled with. I went back over some of your past performance reviews and I can't find a single week back to 2015 with a performance even over 7.0 yd/rush. Once again, fantastic job!
3) Cover the Spread
The spread was around 16 points and you won by 34. That ranks among the very best in the industry this week. Once again, great job!
4) At least 3 TD from the offense where you drive at least 50 yards, not including penalty yardage.
Again, we thought this one was a real stretch goal, but you nailed it! You actually put up 5 total touchdowns while driving more than 50 yards, and you met your target before the end of the first quarter. Talk about on time and under budget!
Finally, your last target was:
5) No more than 1 TD given up by the 1st string defense
While we know that defense is clearly one of your strengths, we felt that it was necessary to put this target in their just to keep that part of your skill set sharp. Surprisingly, this was the target that you were the closest to not hitting. But, a timely interception sealed the deal. Of course, the 2nd string defense did give up that late touchdown, but that clearly does not count against this target.
In summary, you really had a fantastic week, and I think that you are back on track to meet your goals for the year. Of course, there are some things that you need to continue to work on. First of all, we need to continue to see this kind of consistent performance from the offense. Now that we know that you can do it, we are going to be expecting more out of you. As you know, the challenges will get tougher as this project moves closure to completion. We need you to continue to work hard and always bring your best effort in this area.
Second, while your rushing defense continues to be excellent, we think that there is some room for improvement in the pass defense. You gave up 6.95 yd/pass this week, which is not a bad number, but it is not a great one either. We are confident that you can do a little better here.
But, once again, great job and thank you for all your hard work so far this year. We are really excited to see how the year progresses. As you know, my door is always open if you have questions or concerns. Oh, and before I forget, I heard that you can a question about the dress code this week. I just wanted to tell you that I didn't see anything wrong with what you were wearing. This is a pretty casual work place and what you wore was totally fine. Don't worry about it.
Before you go, I probably shouldn't say this but you will probably hear about it later anyway. I am going to be speaking to your older brother next. As usual, before this project started he was basically shooting his mouth off to all of your colleagues about how he was the best employee here and how he was going to really "crush it" this time. You know how he is... Anyway, I don't know if he has told you, but he is really struggling so far and I not sure what we are going to do about him. But, that's my problem and not yours...
It's funny, because when we hired you, as you know, he already worked here and he actually voiced concern about bringing you onto the team. He said that he didn't think that you could cut it here, but to be honest, you have been out performing him for a long time now. I am starting to wonder if he just always knew that you would show him up. Shoot, I probably shouldn't have told you all of that...
Anyway, I don't want to take any more of your time. Have a good rest of your day and we will talk again soon. Bye now.
National Overview
As usual, here is my chart showing the actual game results in reference to the opening Vegas lines.
At a glance, it is easy to see that some teams clearly over-achieved relative to the spread, namely Kansas State, Baylor, Ohio State, MSU, UCF, Missouri, USC, and SMU. All 8 of those teams were over a standard deviation above the mean (aka, the spread). Also of note is that Tulsa was flirting with the dotted line, which shows that they did quite well ATS this week too.
Meanwhile, the two teams that still won, yet were notable underachievers are none of than Michigan and Florida State. Wow, you hate to see that... Then, there were the 9 upsets of the which, the most notable of which is the Maryland win over Syracuse. It is notable not because it was a big upset, but because of the margin of victory, which was huge. They are a major outlier this week.
That leads in nicely to my quick hit observations for Week 2:
- While Nebraska's loss to Colorado was the only (mild) surprise, several others teams raised eyebrows. Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and to some extend MSU raised eyebrows due to big wins. Meanwhile Michigan, Nebraska, and (at least in the first half) Penn State looked more like pretenders than contenders.
- Things basically went to plan in the SEC this week. Missouri got back on track, and A&M actually covered (barely) vs. Clemson. Oh and Tennessee lost again in hilarious fashion.
- The big story in the ACC (other than Syracuse getting waxed by Maryland) is UNC's upset of Miami. Is UNC actually good? Either way, the Coastal Division looks wide open... not that it will matter, because Clemson.
- The Big 12 had a ridiculously easy schedule outside of two games (both loses by Texas to LSU and West Virginia to Mizzou) and yet Kansas still found a way to lose to Coastal Carolina, a team that has been at the FBS level since (checks Wikipedia...) 2017... at home. Whoops...
- The Pac 12 had yet another rough week as Oregon State and UCLA both lost game to Mountain West opponents (Hawaii and San Diego State). Perhaps worse for the conference was Washington's Pac-12-after-dark loss to Cal Berkeley. Oregon may be the only team left, after only two weeks, with a shot at the playoffs... and they are 1-1.
- I was feeling pretty good about Boise State in the Cotton Bowl, but then the Broncos looked shaky against Marshall and Florida State (who Boise beat last week) looked even shakier against ULM. Similarly, Cincinnati had my attention... but then they got blanked by the Buckeyes and UCLA (who Cincy beat in Week 1) got upset by San Diego State. Huh. Well, I guess UCF looks good...
Upset and ATS Performance
Overall, my model did great ATS this week at 27-19 (59%), which makes up for a poor Week 1 and brings my total to 46-45. Meanwhile, the FPI is off to a bad start. It went only 20-26 this week and is 37-54 (41%) ATS overall based on my calculations.
As for my suggested bets, if I combine my spreadsheets picks with the FPI picks, and discount the Syracuse / Maryland game where the models were in complete disagreement (the FPI was correct in this case) it was a push for the week (6-6). In detail, those picks were (with the correct one in bold):
- Penn State (-24) to cover vs. Buffalo
- Wisconsin (-34) to cover vs. Central Michigan
- Boise State (-12) to cover vs. Marshall
- Appalachian State (-21) to cover vs. Charlotte
- Iowa (-20.5) to cover vs. Rutgers
- Baylor (-26) to cover vs. UTSA
- UCLA (-7) to cover vs. San Diego State
- VA Tech (-26.5) to cover vs. Old Dominion
- Vanderbilt (+9.5) to cover at Purdue
- LSU (-4.5) to cover vs. Texas
- Cincinnati (+17) to cover at Ohio State
- Kentucky (-14) to cover vs. EMU
Of course, 4 of the 6 correct picks were from my model... just saying'. Overall, this methodology is 14-9 (61%) year-to-date.
As for upsets, here is the summary table for the week:
My model got 2 of 3 this week, bringing the year-to-date total to 3-2 (60%), while the FPI was 2 for 2, making up for its 0-3 performance this week (2-3, 40% YTD). The overall 9 observed upsets was exactly what my simulation predicted, with the Cal over Washington upset being the biggest of the weekend.
Metrics Update
As for the updated odds to win the big ten, here is the updated chart after Week 2
and here is the update expected win table
Of course, it is still early, but right now the math really likes how Ohio State and Wisconsin have started the season, as they are ranked #1 and #3 nationally in my current power rankings. As such, they are both big favorites (77% and 72% odds) to win their divisions.
What is more fun is that my spreadsheet gives MSU the 2nd best odds in the East at 13%, which is right around where we started. Also of note is that Maryland actually has the current 3rd best odds (6%) while Michigan's odds are less than 1%, their ranking has dropped to 33, and I only have them favored to win 5 games total. In the West, Iowa (24%) is still hanging around and ranked 10th in my power rankings.
Now, a lot can certainly change as teams hit their stride and we learn more about them, but right now I think that these numbers are an accurate measure of how things will play out if each teams plays to the level that they have so far. Another way to say this is that if you think Michigan has looked shaky and have no chance to beat anyone good unless they start looking a lot better, well the math agrees with you.
Here are my projected spreads for MSU's key upcoming games:
MSU (-10.9) vs. Arizona State (it opened at -10.5)
MSU (-11.1) at Northwestern
MSU (-23) vs. Indiana
MSU (+11.5) at Ohio State
MSU (+13.3) at Wisconsin
MSU (-7.5) vs. Penn State
MSU (-5.7) at Michigan
and here is my full power ranking Top 25:
- Wisconsin
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Auburn
- Oregon
- UCF
- Iowa
- Florida
- Utah
- Michigan State
- Notre Dame
- Washington State
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- USC
- Virginia
- Penn State
- Maryland
- Texas A&M
- Iowa State
- Missouri
- Miami (FL)
How is Miami ranked 25 at 0-2? Great question. Math is weird sometimes.
That is all for now. Onward to Week 3. As always, enjoy, and Go Green!
Comments
Post a Comment